Doug Casey: “Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionair​es”

Doug Casey: “Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires”

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Bear markets always end. Has this one?

Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there’s still risk, there’s a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven’t seen in over two years.

An ever-growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that’s true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors.

Doug Casey told me last week: “In my lifetime, the best time to have bought gold was 1971, at $35; it ran to over $800 by 1980. In 2001, gold was $250: in real terms even cheaper than in 1971. It ran to over $1,900 in 2011.

“It’s now at $1,250. Not as cheap, in real terms, as in 1971 or 2001, but the world’s financial and economic state is far more shaky.

“Gold is, once again, not just a prudent holding, but an excellent, high-potential, low-risk speculation. And gold stocks are about to create a whole new class of millionaires.”

Just a couple of months ago, you would have had a hard time finding even one analyst saying something positive about gold and gold stocks—even some of the most bullish investment pros had gone silent.

But that’s changing. Case in point: When Chief Metals & Mining Strategist Louis James and I attended last week’s Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver, we witnessed quite a few very optimistic speakers.

Take Frank Giustra, for example, a self-made billionaire and philanthropist who made his fortune both in the mining sector and the entertainment industry. He’s the founder of Lionsgate Entertainment, which is responsible for blockbuster movies like The Hunger Games, but he was just as heavily involved with mining blockbusters such as Iamgold, Wheaton River Minerals, Silver Wheaton, and others.

More Upturn Advocates

Here’s a quick scan of the growing number of voices that think the decline is over, some of which are outright bullish:

“The worst is over with gold. It’s time to call your broker.” —Frank Holmes, US Global Investors

“Sentiment is as black as night on gold, so I’m actually long on some gold miners.”
—Jeffrey Gundlach, bond guru and DoubleLine Capital founder

“We’ll see a gradual recovering throughout the year, because all the negative factors are already in the price.” —Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank

“Looking ahead, the downside risks seem to be diminishing, and overall we feel that the big shocks we’ve seen over the last two or three years are done…” —Marc Elliott, Investec

“The mainstream narrative on gold is changing, indicating a possible bottom.” —Bron Suchecki, Perth Mint

“Orthodox investments are working on a cyclical peak, as precious metals are working on a cyclical bottom. The big pattern could be fully reversed by February-March, with gold becoming one of the best-performing sectors through the rest of 2014. The advice is to seriously reduce exposure in stocks and bonds and get fully invested in the precious metals sector. This should be completed in the first quarter.” —Bob Hoye, Institutional Advisors

I’m telling you, you’ve seen the bottom of the gold market,” he told the rapt audience at the conference, offering a bet to the Goldman Sachs analyst who claimed gold is going to $1,000.

The stakes: Whoever loses has to stand on a popular street in downtown Vancouver dressed in women’s underwear.

Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, stated in a recent interview on CNBC: “The commercial traders are at their most bullish stance since the 2001 low, and they usually get proven right. It’s a hugely bullish condition for gold, and I’m expecting a really large rebound.

“The moment we see a major gold producer announce that it’s curtailing production or it’s going out of business,” McClellan continued, “that’ll be the moment we mark the low in gold. I expect to have one of those announcements any minute. We’re getting down to the production price of gold right now, and they won’t continue producing gold at that level for very long.”

Are they just guessing? To answer that, first consider the historical context of this bear market—it’s getting very long in the tooth:

  • The current correction in gold stocks is the fourth longest since 1879. The decline of 66% ranks in the top 10 of recorded history.
  • In silver, only two corrections have lasted longer—the ones that ended in 1936 and 1983.

Some technical analysts have pointed to positive chart formations, most notably the powerful “double bottom” that can portend a strong upward move. Based on intraday prices…

  • Gold formed a double bottom last year, hitting $1,180.64 on June 28 and $1,182.60 on December 31, a convincing six-month span.
  • Silver formed a higher low: $18.20 on June 28 vs. $18.72 on December 31, a bullish development.
  • Gold stocks (XAU) formed a slightly lower low: $82.29 on June 26 vs. $79.73 December 19, 2103, a difference of 3.2%. However, as our friend Dominick Graziano, who successfully helped us earn doubles on three GLD puts last year, recently pointed out…
  • The TSX Venture Index, where most junior mining stocks trade, has stayed above its June low. In fact, it recently soared above both the 50-day and 40-week moving averages for the first time since 2011.

Meanwhile, Goldcorp (GG) sent a huge bullish signal to the market earlier this month. It decided to pounce on the opportunities available right now, launching a takeover bid of Osisko Mining for $2.6 billion. The company wouldn’t be buying now if it thought gold was headed to $1,000.

As Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, says, “It’s time to be quietly bullish.”

The smart money, like resource billionaire Rick Rule, is not just quietly bullish, though—they are actively buying top-quality junior mining stocks at bargain-basement prices to make a killing when prices rise.

To make sure that you can invest right alongside them, we decided to host a sequel to our 2013 Downturn Millionaires event, titled Upturn Millionaires—How to Play the Turning Tides in the Precious Metals Market.

Back then, we made a strong case for this once-in-a-generation opportunity—but it was still undetermined when the bottom would be in. It looks like that time is now very near, and we believe it’s time to act.

On Wednesday, February 5, at 2 p.m. EST, resource legends Frank Giustra, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Ross Beaty, investment gurus John Mauldin and Porter Stansberry, and Casey Research resource experts Louis James and Marin Katusa will present the evidence and discuss the possibilities for life-changing gains for investors with the cash and courage to grab this bull by the horns.

How do we know the absolute bottom is in? I’ll answer that with a quote from a recent Mineweb interview with mining giant Rob McEwen, former chairman and CEO of Goldcorp:

“I’d say we’re either at or extremely close to the bottom, and as an investor I’m not prepared to wait to see if the bottom’s there because it’s very hard to pick it. Because … if you’re not taking advantage of it right now, you’re going to miss a big part of the move. And when you look at the distance these stocks have to travel to get to their old highs, there’s some wonderful numbers in terms of performance that I think we’re going to see.”

Granted, these voices are still in the minority—but that’s what makes this opportunity wonderfully contrarian. After all, once “Buy gold stocks” is investor consensus, we’ll be approaching the time to sell.

Our Upturn Millionaires experts believe that our patience is about to be rewarded. And when that happens, gold stocks will be easy doubles—and the best juniors potential ten-baggers.

Don’t miss the free Upturn Millionaires video event—register here to save your seat. (Even if you don’t have time to watch the premiere, register anyway to receive a video recording of the event.)

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20 Comments
Winston
Winston
January 29, 2014 3:01 pm

Matslinger

Exactly right. That’s what happen in 2008. Everything gets slaughtered in deflation. If another crash happens, only cash and shorts will work out.

PrisonerofZelda
PrisonerofZelda
January 29, 2014 3:03 pm

I would rather take investment advice from Rick James than Doug Casey/Luis James. You got to give these one note samba players credit they have a story and they are sticking with it. Put every dime you have in the Jr gold miners ETF.

TPC
TPC
January 29, 2014 4:05 pm

I don’t believe the market will crash this year. Probably 2015, making 2016 a year for “hope and change.”

Given everything I see, I could probably take some big risks financially and get lucky with some stocks…..but fuck that. I’m going to pay off my debt, continue building up a large selection of tools, and this coming summer I will be planting a vegetable garden to start myself on the path towards some semblance of self-sufficiency.

Sensetti
Sensetti
January 29, 2014 4:43 pm

Anything you can’t lay your hands on will vaporize in the crash, on that you can rest assured.

Jim
Jim
January 29, 2014 6:02 pm

You are right about that. I’d say here in the big city unemployment is over 50% in some areas of the ghetto/most large cities, perhaps higher. these folks will never work period. Until the free money giveaway ends, this will continue at least for a few more years. However, one does not need to be a rcoket scientist to see the unsustainability of the status quo. Why people with jobs, living in the suburbs don’t seem to care is beyond me as to what is coming down the pike. It is just so plain to see. As to the article above, I don’t have gold but am seriously thinking about right now for the first time. I think you have to go with gold/silver coins as they will be valuable currency. Any suggestions/opoinions as to 1/4, 1/2 or 1 ounce pieces?

Billy
Billy
January 29, 2014 6:22 pm

Jim

I’ll be blunt.

Unless you got a pile of fiat currency sitting around drawing 0.000001% interest in some “savings” account somewhere, the time to buy gold was a couple years ago when it was still below $300 an ounce.

Don’t know what the spot price is right now.. couple days ago, it was hovering around $1250 an ounce. It might be $1300 or more as of right now…

We bought silver. Quite a bit, actually. About half of what we bought were 1 ounce Silver Eagles, the other half were pre-1964 coins. Silver has basically stayed the same since we bought it (between $20-$25 an ounce). Yes, we did buy some gold. 1/10th ounce Gold Eagles. The reasoning being, when the dollar divides by zero and the economy goes China Syndrome, fiat currency will be worth even less than toilet paper (because fiat currency makes poor toilet paper, actual toilet paper will be worth more).

Buying PM’s with phony-baloney fiat currency (dollars) with the intent of selling it later on for even MORE phony-baloney fiat currency never made much sense to me… Silver and gold coin is MONEY. Real, honest to God MONEY. It was real MONEY for 6,000 years… LONG before that Joofuk Bernanke came along and called it a barbaric relic… classic misdirection.

When our shitty dollar is dead, people will still need to conduct business amongst themselves for the things they need or want. We set back a wad of fiat dollars to work with while the run-up to implosion is going on, and then we can switch over to our PM’s afterwards.

Any of the metals houses online will square you away. We used APMEX, though Admin gets a small fee for anyone using his links on the sidebar (before the Internet Gestapo pulled his ads)…

archie
archie
January 29, 2014 6:45 pm

jim, my suggestion to you, as a first time buyer of gold, if you’re serious and have done your dd, is to make a small purchase first to get a feel for the process. you can go to your local coin store or go online. check prices, spot versus premium to get the best deals. you may want to check out apmex.com. it’s a factory but they have pretty good prices and they have a good delivery record (which is to say if they sell it they have it and will ship it pronto). there’s nothing wrong with 1/4 t oz. coins, though you will pay a higher premium the smaller the unit of gold. anything smaller than 1/4 t oz. and they look like dollhouse ornaments, but 1/10th t oz. coins are available. you could even buy a gram bar, roughly 31 of which make up a troy ounce. but they are small, very small.

you will notice that, generally speaking, bullion coins can be divided into 2 groups: pure gold (.99xx) (24 carat) or 11/12 (22 carat) gold. south african krugerrands and american eagles are of the latter type and are alloyed with other metals to make the coin a bit more durable and scratch free. in other words you can handle them freely. but they contain 1 troy ounce of gold nonetheless. canadian maples, american buffalos (a real beauty), and austrian philharmonics are pure gold.

in my 100% amateur opinion, do not buy mining shares, buy the physical item itself. hold both metals if you wish, but gold is held by central banks and the uber-rich, not silver, so this tells you that they value the yellow metal over silver. big money makes the market. i own both.

i can answer further questions for a small fee. just kidding! beware the greaseballs and happy hunting!

Billy
Billy
January 29, 2014 7:13 pm

archie

Excellent advice. +1

I bought 1/10th oz because the guy (who owns a jewelry store) was selling at spot. Plus, the way I figure it, even though everyone has at least some silver laid back, how are you going to make change for a 1/4 oz of gold?

Gold, as of this writing, is at $1,328 an ounce (random 1 oz gold eagle)
Silver is at $24.54 an ounce.

That means that gold is worth roughly 54 times an equal amount of silver.

A 1/4 oz gold eagle is what? $355.94.

To make “change” for that 1/4 oz gold eagle, you need 14.5 ounces of silver. That’s almost a pound of silver.

A dinky 1/10th oz gold eagle is $145 bucks. Yeah, you pay a premium (unless you buy a shitload), but they’re going to be easier to work with, since you only need 6 ounces of silver to make “change”…

Fuck… for all I know, we could be back in the days of “pieces of eight” where you chopped up your coin into 8 equal pie shaped pieces to make “change”…

I guess in caveman speak, gold, silver good. Paper bad. Whatever happens after that? I dunno bro…

specie
specie
January 29, 2014 7:34 pm

worked for me 2000-2007

archie
archie
January 29, 2014 7:48 pm

billy, yeah, i think anything real you can convert cash into is good. Pb is a better bet than stawks in my view. all paper will burn. have cash in the house. any archie dollar surplus goes into gold, silver, lead, tools, booze, and food here at the maine farmhouse. fwiw, i cannot understand why silver is so cheaply priced. one guy i read said it is at a multi-century low. it’s practically free. that’s the new normal. the only reason i advocate gold instead of silver, though i like and own both, is because the little guy doesn’t mean shit. it’s the big players with inside info who make the market to enrich themselves. they like gold.

you got 1/10th t oz. at spot? bastard!!

Jim
Jim
January 29, 2014 7:50 pm

All, thanks for the insight. I agree to take physical gold/silver rather than shares that could be confiscated. After the SOTU speech last night, it just pushed me over the dam. What a friggin joke and scary what he can say and potentially do. And the opposition does not endenger a good vibe or vision as well. oh well…..

Jim
Jim
January 29, 2014 7:53 pm

And BTW, any opinions on LLear Captial for gold/silver purchases? I am awre that I will pay the commission, but in the long run it may be well worth it. thanks in advance.

archie
archie
January 29, 2014 8:03 pm

jim, avoid lear capital. they will steer you into numismatic coins (the fucking premium on those coins is insane). any firm that advertises on tv is a bunch of greaseballs. think bullion coins. try apmex, scottsdalesilver, milesfranklin, onlygold, and a few others i can’t quite remember first.

archie
archie
January 29, 2014 8:05 pm

i was going to launch into something else using the word “first”. never mind, you’ll figure it out.

Billy
Billy
January 29, 2014 8:16 pm

jim

archie is dead nuts on. Stay away from those guys.

And what you’re after is the physical metal. Preferably in coin form, since it is a known quantity. It does not have to be a “perfect” coin, either. I bought our Silver Eagles from APMEX when they had a bunch of ‘cull’ eagles… scratched, banged around some, but still silver eagles. You pay less than what you would for uncirculated or perfect coins… who gives a shit if it got polished or scratched or dropped at some point?

And yeah, archie, I did get 1/10th eagles at spot…. it helps to know people. 🙂 AND (and youre gonna hate this) he insists on cash. Doesn’t want to know your name. He hates the government as much as we do and keeps no records of who buys what, just in case those fedfuk assholes try another confiscation…

Erasmus Le Dolt
Erasmus Le Dolt
January 30, 2014 8:37 am

Here’s a Doug Casey interview form yesterday on Greg Hunter’s program. As always, great stuff.

Bond Market Bubble in Search of a Pin-Doug Casey

Erasmus Le Dolt
Erasmus Le Dolt
January 30, 2014 8:58 am

We’ve been hammered on Gold and Silver stocks but have hung in and starting to see some daylight but a long way to go. I suspect it will take time as our excellent Fed slams Gold every time it feels like it and they can do that because they have unlimited printing capability. That, of course, is illegal.

I think to turn gold really north it will take a mechanical failure relating to delivery of the actual metal. Jesse Cafe American is excellent on this.

Also, I think it was Dr. Paul Craig Roberts who tied in the plunge in Gold to the US meeting a Chinese demand for physical as a deal to hedge their Treasury positions and then to use Gold as the backing for their currency. Can you imagine us doing that….I can because when it comes to the Chinese, we have no choice.

MuckAbout
MuckAbout
January 30, 2014 8:55 pm

Rule#1: Fiat currencies (all of them) will eventually drop in value to their intrinsic value (i.e zero or at a minimum the value of an equivalent amount of toilet paper).

Rule#2: gold (and to a lesser amount, silver) is money. Gold is not a commodity. Silver is a hybrid, used as money and as a commodity in industrial uses.

Rule#3. Own some of each, physical possession only. Silver coin can be kept in a lock box at a bank, but not gold. I’d keep neither in a lock box.

Rule#4. Now is a fine time to take small positions in both gold and silver miners of the highest quality. I love juniors because of their volatility but right now, well capitalized big miners are the place to be. They have taken a hit of 50%-70% or more and _NO_ONE_IS_INTERESTED_IN _THEM_. Hence you should be.

Hence time to take a modest position. This is NOT to be considered an “investment” as it will pay no interest and, indeed, costs a little bit each year to store it (no matter how you do it). Gold and silver are, instead, a place to put your long term money that you wish to maintain it’s purchasing power. You buy it, set it aside and forget about it..

TRADE THE PAPER GOLD (ETF’s and miners) and buy and hold the real thing. Do not “invest” in gold ETF’s.

Interest rates are going to start climbing sooner or later. Avoid Inverse bond ETF’s or inverse VIX ETF’s for the long run. Stay away from them except to use them in an odd and inverse way.

Go short long bond bullish bond ETF’s and stay away from the inverse bond ETF’s; go short the inverse VIX ETF’s. You’re costs are low doing this and remember the last two are a longer term investment situation.

There are ways to make money in a volatile and down market. May as well take advantage of it.

MA

GOM
GOM
May 20, 2014 7:19 am

Did I hear the word deflation in these comments? How can we have deflation with massive injections of funny money from ‘the fed’? It’s 100% hyperinflation coming like a missile. Duck and cover…