Guest Post by The Zman
For a few weeks, Trump has been saying and doing things that don’t seem to make a lot of sense. The black pill interpretation is that he has decided to cuck on all of his promises and cave into the establishment. Of course, the anti-Trump loons are claiming they were right all along and Trump is now finking on his stupid voters. Then you have the mouth breathers that hoot about 5-D chess all the time. The more likely explanation is that Trump is making a calculated gamble on himself and his read on public opinion.
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Take the DACA controvery. Trump can count, so he knows the Democrats have far fewer members in both houses of Congress than the Republicans. He can cut all the deals he likes with Pelosi and Schumer, but those deals will go nowhere without the GOP leadership, as they control the legislative agenda. The game was to embarrass Ryan and Mitchell. By making it look like the Democrats were willing to work with him, he forced the GOP to make its own moves on immigration. It’s petty, but it works.
The other point of the exercise was to get people talking about immigration in a way that works in his favor. News stories about “dreamers” makes him look bad. He rightly figured that his voters would get mad over his rumored cave and they would take it out on the GOP leadership. It would also trigger the immigration patriots to fire off a million proposals for fixing immigration. From Trump’s perspective, turmoil is good as it gets his people fired up, looking for a fight and it forces the GOP leadership to respond.
Trump did not get this far by not understanding the political map. He knows he is the leader of the White Party, that has been forced to vote within the Republican Party. He certainly never says it like that, but he is an old school New Yorker. He understands the skins game better than most. His opposition is not the Democrats. His enemy is the GOP, that has traditionally served to blunt the interests of the White Party. Therefore, Trump needs to keep the fires burning for the coming fights in the the Republican primaries.
You see glimpses of what’s coming in the Alabama Senate Race. The White Party is lining up behind Judge Moore, mostly because he is not on the side of Mitch McConnell. Trump has endorsed the establishment guy, claiming to do so out of party loyalty. At the same time, an army of Trump surrogates are in the state endorsing Moore. Even Trump has given mixed signals about his endorsement of Luther Strange. There’s a wink-wink quality to all of it. It’s theater and everyone in the audience is in on the gag.
Next year, there will be a bunch of candidates running against GOP incumbents, promising to support the Trump agenda. There will be Democrat challengers making the right noises on immigration and trade. How successful these challengers are will depend a lot upon how things go in Washington the next six months. That’s the message Trump is trying to send to guys like Ryan and McConnell, who seem to be trapped in a fantasy world where the 2016 election never happened and they are beloved figures on the Right.
From Trump’s perspective, the result on Tuesday opens up opportunities. If Strange pulls a miracle and wins the election, then Trump will be tweeting about how he can deliver votes even for a bozo like Strange. If Moore wins, then Trump will tweet that he tried to be loyal to McConnell and the GOP, but they refused to learn from past mistakes. In a few hours, no one will remember that he endorsed the loser. Instead, the story will be about the impending disaster for the establishment GOP in the coming primaries.
There is risk to what Trump is doing in Alabama. If Luther Strange wins, the White Party will be discouraged and may start to turn on Trump. At the minimum, it gives the anti-Trump loons ammunition to accuse Trump of finking on his base. It could also embolden guys like Ryan, who are convinced that Trump has no base. On the other hand, a win by Moore and the same cucks will argue that Trump can’t deliver votes, so they are wise to oppose him. You can be sure they have those op-eds written and ready to send.
It’s a gamble, but Trump is a guy who thinks he can make something out of anything, as long as he has options. Whether it was by design or serendipity, this election is a referendum on the GOP establishment. The most likely outcome, according to polling, is a Moore win and maybe a very big win. Trump will not only take credit for it, but start to bet his winnings on the belief he can scare the GOP into passing his agenda items. They may hold the result against him, but Trump is betting they cave and play ball with him.
The reason it is a good gamble is the pressure on leadership will now come from their own ranks. Ryan and McConnell can keep discipline as long as they can promise their members they will keep their seats. If the rank and file start thinking they are safer with Trump or that Trump will back their challengers, then it is game over for Ryan and McConnell. They have to play ball. From Trump’s perspective, he has everything to game and nothing to lose. Ryan and McConnell can’t hate him more than they already do.
Well it’s Moore, I hope your read is right Zman.
“Trump did not get this far by not understanding the political map. He knows he is the leader of the White Party, that has been forced to vote within the Republican Party. He certainly never says it like that, but he is an old school New Yorker. He understands the skins game better than most. His opposition is not the Democrats. His enemy is the GOP, that has traditionally served to blunt the interests of the White Party. Therefore, Trump needs to keep the fires burning for the coming fights in the the Republican primaries.” That’s really laying it out. The big, unrepresented voting block in the US is the white working class. Not only are they a huge majority, they also vote at the highest rates, and from here on out, will be the toughest to fool. You could win every election with just them. Add in any other group that realizes they have been played by both parties, and Trump could have a great year in the midterms.
I am weary unto death of the endless analysis by all and sundry of the current state of American politics. The permutations of this and the blowback from that. The subtext of this speech and the “what does it really mean” of that statement. Every day, day after day after day, the 140 character commandos tweet every single solitary passing thought that careens through what passes for their minds. None of it means anything. We as a nation are well passed the point where we or our leaders are controlling events. Events are now controlling us.
Accept the fact that the politics of this country are corrupt; top to bottom, side to side, and front to back. Voting at the local level still holds some value, but on the national and even state levels it is an exercise in futility. Who wins this or that special election is meaningless. Incumbents are returned to office at a rate of better than 80- 90%. It is political farce masquerading as representative government.
I subscribe to the Barnhardt Axiom: “The fact that a given person is holding or seeking high-level public office is, in and of itself, proof that said person is morally and/or psychologically unfit to hold public office.”
For God’s sake stop voting, at least at the national level. Stop stroking the egos of these narcissistic power-seekers. They are not your friends and they are certainly not representing your interests. If not a vote were cast in the next election, at least these douchebags would be on their own without the fig leaf of “public support” that the voting drones give them. Enough is enough. Make them pass their laws knowing that what they decide is as arbitrary and self-serving as we all know it is.
On second thought, I’ll cast one last vote. I vote for them to “leave me the f**k alone.”
“I am weary unto death of the endless analysis by all and sundry of the current state of American politics.”
+1000, brother.
I would simplify it even further —- “I am weary unto death of America.”
But, that’s just me. I’m sure an asshole, or two, will tell me to go find another country. Not an option, unfortunately.
Stop voting is a great start.
Stop buying shit, other than life’s necessities is also a great solution. That alone could bring down America … if that’s a goal.
— Stop going to pro sporting events. That will put an end to the NBA, NFL, and MLB. It’s really that simple.
— Stop buying new cars. Drive your current car to at least 200k, and then buy a used car. That will put an end to the auto industry.
— Stop buying OTC drugs every time you get a little sniffle, your tummy aches, or you can’t take a shit. Let nature fix it. In fact, don’t take any fucken drugs at all, unless they are required to keep you alive. That will put an end to pharma abuses
— Stop buying and eating processed foods. Buy “around the edges” of your supermarket. That will put hundreds of Big Food monstrosities out of business.
— Stop buying so many damned clothes! Especially cheap shit. Don’t buy a $200 suit every year or so from Men’s Whorehouse. Buy a $1500 suit. It will last forever, and you’ll look better.
— Stop going to movies. You’ll destroy the movie industry and thousands of libtardfuk actors in less than a year.
— Don’t skimp on guns and ammo.
You get the picture. I can go on like this all evening. You know why? Because this is how I live for the most part. (I’m still learning and adapting.)
Of course, the chances of the masses doing likewise is near nil. Cuz they’re dumbfuks. From the poor blue collar worker all the way up to the educated and skilled. Like Ms Freud’s brain-dead son (stock broker) and his enormous whale of a wife (Verizon corporate lawyer) … who together pull in over 500k, buy a new Lexus every year, spend about $1000 for their own two spawns every birthday and Christmas, and he has season tickets to the NY Jets. He pretty much thinks I am an idiot about the state America is in. Says things have never been better. He usually walks away from me after about 30 seconds of my doom and gloom spiel. Cuz things are gr-r-r-reat in his world.
I can see objections to my stop-buying-shit solution. “We don’t want to destroy America, you idiot!!! We just want to make it better!!”.
Yeah … well … how’s that working out for ya? Sometimes you have to destroy a structure to make it better. Bring down Corporations?? Are you nuts??? Sure, I get it … you want your cake, and eat it too. You want gain, but no pain. Yeah … well … how’s that working out for ya?
My new life choices have been HARD to implement … But, mostly in the beginning. As we unload more and more shit, and buy less and less, an amazing thing is happening to us. We’re far less stressed, and much happier.
WOW !
Great post. What I was thinking – – what I always think – – you said, and you said it well.
Glad you are back, and in excellent fighting form
SnowieGeorgie
Quite a personal journey you’ve made over the years. And they say you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
Trump’s master stroke has been using the moronic actions of the NFL as a powerful wedge issue, and boy is it working…
Beyond being a wedge issue, there was another little thing that occurred to me over the weekend. Trump brought up the NFL/knee thing at his “rally” for Luther Strange on Friday night. And the snowflakes predictably went ape-shit. All weekend and through Monday and into Tuesday (after the Cowgirls did their thing), it was the NFL soap opera. And what was the one name that NOBODY heard in all that time? Luther Strange. Yup – there was indeed a wink-wink quality to it.
Whats even more amazing is how CLUELESS the NFL is about its main demographic. There is a reason that a lot of ads during games are for Chevy trucks and Budweiser. I don’t think it is hipster millennials buying those products. I don’t think it is black or brown people buying those things….Trump may have been able to stir the pot, however, unlike the NFL, he seems to know his true “base” and demographic.
Trump just saw an opening, and he took it. Similar with the win last night. It was primarily a heads I win, tails you lose proposition. I don’t know about 3D chess and all that shit, but I do know that he is (and has displayed on many occasions) the ability to out think our stupid fuck media and “establishment” on almost every turn. I suspect it is largely because of them being “owned” and unable to maneuver against him, as he only has to answer to himself, and his core voters, whereas the monkies must justify, and clear every decision they want to make by their masters.
The NFL, like Hollywood, is not clueless about the core demographic that is their customer base – the (((NFL))) despises that core demographic and believes that it is donkey arse dumb and easy to manipulate. Which is to say, that that core demographic is seen as a flock of sheep – easily fleeced and easily controlled.
The (((NFL))) is betting that that flock is too dumb to stop buying the product, so there is no downside to promoting more (((degenerate))) politics aimed at demoralizing the historic American nation (i.e. the white people) and de-stabilizing society.
Will (((they))) win that bet? It remains to be seen.