Guest Post by Scott Adams
The Small Business Optimism Index hit an all-time high. That’s the new Presidential Approval Poll.
In olden days (pre-2016), candidates for president were not so different from each other. I can remember pundits complaining endlessly about how similar the Democrats and Republicans had become. In that environment, you can easily imagine someone who voted for Candidate A warming up to Candidate B. In those simpler times, a presidential approval poll meant something.
Today, a “presidential approval poll” is little more than taking attendance. If you’re a Democrat, you disapprove of President Trump as a lifestyle choice. If you voted for Trump, you probably still approve of him because you knew exactly what you were getting. And if you are an anti-Trump conservative, you allow cognitive dissonance to rule your brain and you say he’s doing a good job but you disapprove of him anyway. David Brooks accidentally described this phenomenon in this article.
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I contend that business optimism — and small business optimism in particular — are the new standard for presidential approval because “economics” captures most of what a president influences.
If a president starts a war, or threatens to start one, the economy flinches.
If a president starts a trade war, or threatens one, the economy flinches.
If a president is tearing apart the fabric of civilization in one way or another, the economy collapses.
If a big terror attack succeeds on the homeland, the economy flinches.
If immigration is allowed in large numbers, the economy feels it.
I could go on. The point is that all of the “big” issues directly influence the economy via their impact on our psychology and our resources. In a free, capitalist country, “the economy” captures all the goodness and badness of a presidency without really trying. And the measure that best reflects the future of the economy, in my opinion, is small business optimism.
Big businesses can do fine with a president who promotes policies that favor big corporations, even if the rest of the country is suffering. But when small business owners are feeling good about the economy, that means the president is doing a more bottoms-up job of getting things right. President Trump has focused on bottoms-up economics from the start, meaning jobs and lessened regulations. Apparently that is working.
I have been telling you for two years straight that psychology drives the economy, and that a Master Persuader such as President Trump can directly influence psychology and optimism. We see him doing that right before our eyes.
At the same time President Trump is “talking up” our economy, he’s talking North Korea’s economy to ruin. If you own a company that is involved in smuggling with North Korea, you probably noticed that South Korea nabbed two tankers that satellite photos spotted cheating. That’s going to be a financial disaster for those shipping companies. The psychology of the corporations involved in smuggling just changed, courtesy of the Master Persuader who has no intention of taking his boot off the North Korean economy until they lose their nukes. This approach is already causing North Korea to get flexible, at least in the talking sense.
Keep in mind that all of the personality negatives that are reflected in the old-timey presidential approval polls are exactly what is scaring North Korea into the arms of “good cop” South Korea. President Trump’s tweets didn’t cause a war; they caused North Korean flexibility, exactly as I predicted.
And if you are still worried about President Trump’s mental health, I’ll do a Periscope later today to tell you how badly the media has abused the public on that topic. For a preview, check out this interview that Dr. Drew did with Dr. Bandy Lee on her opinions of President Trump’s mental health. The media reported her as saying he was mentally unfit. That wasn’t the case. She has no professional opinion on the President’s mental capacity because she has never met him. Her primary concern is about societal violence as a result of his presidency. That is completely different from what has been reported all week. I nominate this story for the Fake News Awards. I think it can be a finalist.
I call BS on this……with the Fed in control of the ‘markets’…..nothing causes them to ‘flinch’ or collapse, they only go up….and up…..and up (well, at least until they don’t)
The Fed is no more in control of the markets than you would be in control of an inner tube you happened to have your ass stuck in as it floated down a river with a stiff current. Markets are ruled by our mass psychology.
With small businesses being happy with Trump ? Are you kidding me, after that huge tax break?! They are ecstatic about it. Too bad that big businesses caught a larger tax break than the little guys!
Men and women go into business to make money and insure a reasonable quality of life for themselves and their families. Under the socialist construct they are a source of funds to extract and apply (read give away) to the great unwashed and insure that they are joyful and happy while simultaneously securing their vote in the next popularity contest.
The more that a business owner can save, invest in business upgrades and pay out to good employees then that is the measure of success involved…….not what some callous toad of a rep/senator has pandered to his or her political fancy in any range and depth……
Trump will Go Over The Top Huge if he: can put some of the big crooks in jail (like Harpy, Blow Job Bill, Hussein, Holder, IRS officials that targeted the Tea Party, the Pizza Gate Pedophiles, some big Banksters and some MSM); audit the Fed and kill it, audit the Pentagon and other big embezzlers; end the voting fraud; build the Wall; end Chem-spraying , etc. It’s all do-able if we good guys unite, pray, roll up our sleeves and push (and kick ass when necessary).
Small businesses are happy because there taxes were reduced. I favor small business tax cuts. I do not favor big business tax cuts. I actually favor ending the Fed which would require zero federal business taxes. I am an independent that voted for Trump and I am officially in the Dump Trump mode now, because of his foreign policy and his support for fascist 1st, 4th, and 10th a amendment rights increased violations, and I’m sorry, but I think that the my nuclear button is bigger than yours tweet was clearly proof of mental instability.
Trumpenomics Will Blow Up In Our Faces, Literally!
You seeing His shit, Stuck? I told ya so. The bitch will never change.