Syriasly

Guest Post by Jim Kunstler

“Peace with Honor” was President Nixon’s anodyne phrase for futzing around as long as possible in Vietnam to conceal the reality that the US military was getting its ass kicked by what we had initially thought was a 98-pound weakling of a Third World country. That was a half-century ago and I remember it now at age 106 thanks to my diet of kale and pepperoni sticks. Not ironically, the long struggle finally ended a few years after Nixon quit the scene, with the last straggling American evacuees waiting desperately for helicopter airlifts off the US embassy roof. And now, of course, Vietnam is a tourism hot-spot.

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And so just the other day, the latest POTUS declared (in his usual way) that “we’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now.” The utterance sent the neocon partisans in government into a paroxysm. Cries of “Say What?” echoed up and down the Great Mall. Which “other people” was Mr. Trump referring to? The United Auto Workers? Gandalf the Grey? The cast of Glee?

I doubt that the average Harvard faculty member can state with any conviction what the fuck is going on in Syria. Vietnam was like a simple game of Animal Lotto compared to the mystifying puzzle of Syria. And then, of course, once you get handle on who the players are, it’s another matter altogether to descry what US interests there might be.

One angle of the story is whether it is in America’s interest for Syria to become another failed state in a region of several other failed states. Whatever else you might say about US policy in that part of the world, the general result in places like Iraq, Libya, and Yemen has been anarchy and irresolvable factional conflict. In today’s world of nation-states, a central government is required to avoid that fate, and the embattled one in Syria happens to be the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The US has long militated for the overthrow of Assad, but I would also challenge you (and the Harvard faculty) to name any credible party or person who we have hypothetically proposed to replace him with.

You might argue that the Great Age of Nation States is winding down, that the world does not need them anymore, that they are the cause of too much strife and anguish. But then you would have to account for all the strife and anguish that occupied the world when it was composed of petty kingdoms, principalities, fiefdoms, and tribes. And, of course, following that logic you’d also have to inquire into the legitimacy of the US government — which, by the way, California is well into testing these days.

One might also propose that the battlefield of Syria, with its array of militant religious maniac armies, is just a proxy action for the tag-teams of the USA/Israel versus Russia/Iran. If so, the US has not been very clear or honest about it. Anyway, it has hardly been demonstrated that Russia is all that comfortable with Iran extending its influence to the Mediterranean Sea. I would take Russia’s presence in Syria as an attempt to block, or at least moderate, Iran’s influence there — which is one of the arguments for a US/Russia partnership in cleaning up the mess there.

That possible outcome has been hugely compromised by the RussiaRussiaRussia hysteria engineered by the neocon warhawks of the US permanent bureaucracy (a.k.a. the Deep State). The latest ploy by these players is the overcooked story of Vladimir Putin personally moving to poison the Russian/British double agent Skripal (and daughter) in Salisbury, UK. Given the extremely lethal nature of the supposed poison, Novichok, and the method supposedly used (smearing it on the Skripal doorknob), it’s hard to believe that the Skripals were able to walk to the park bench where they collapsed, nor that other persons ranging from the police to the medical examiners didn’t come into contact with the substance and fall ill. But this is the sort of cockamamie melodrama that it has come down to on our side of the gameboard.

The other part of the story worth considering is this: Syria, like other new-ish nations of the Middle East, was able to hugely increase its population in the post-WW2 era due to oil wealth (now all but gone in Syria), and other perqs of modernity like cheap grains for feeding all the newcomers. Dwindling oil revenue and severe drought (arguably induced by climate change) that caused crop failures commenced in 2006. So Syria became a workshop study in population overshoot and resource scarcity — problems that are sure to spread around other regions of the world in the years ahead. Nature’s way of correcting those imbalances is very ugly, and easily mistaken for mere politics.

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31 Comments
pyrrhus
pyrrhus
April 2, 2018 10:14 am

The US is supporting muslim terrorists in Syria for two reasons. Israel wants to annex part of Northern Syria, and Saudi/Qatar want to build a pipeline through Syria to compete with Russian gas….Your tax dollars at work in an illegal war for other countries, as usual.

Zarathustra
Zarathustra
  pyrrhus
April 2, 2018 10:49 am

You nailed it. Syria is not at all hard to figure out. Some of the players want to see Syria be restored as a peaceful, multi-religious and stable country. These are Russia, Lebanon and Iran…Turkey too if Erdogan and Assad could mend fences. Then there are those who actually want Syria to become a failed state and a hotbed of terrorism and anarchy. These are Israel and the US. Jordan doesn’t count because it is a political eunuch. Iraq is too weak to have any influence at all other than to see what remains of ISIS eliminated once and for all.

rhs jr
rhs jr
  Zarathustra
April 2, 2018 1:09 pm

JK is right, time to apply the Nixon Doctrine. But I doubt Turkey has any peaceful intentions beyond an Islamic Caliphate; nor the NeoCons beyond their own Anglo-jewish version; nor the Saudis, nor Persians…oh well. Please Mr Trump, takes US out of “the bottomless pit”and let the residents establish their own Muslim version of peace.

kokoda the Deplorable Raccoon and I-LUV-CO2
kokoda the Deplorable Raccoon and I-LUV-CO2
April 2, 2018 10:36 am

“You might argue that the Great Age of Nation States is winding down…”

Not due to the desire of the citizens of each nation state, but it is the western government leaders for the last 28 years that have pursued Globalism, under Agenda 21 (now Agenda 2030) brought to you by the UN, the most corrupt organization in the world.

Nation states are not winding down. The Globalists made a slight error; new nation states are replacing the prior nation states; what used to be modern, civilized nation states will now become governed by 7th century savages under the Islamic banner (Musloids, the scum of the world).

Martin brundlefly
Martin brundlefly
April 2, 2018 10:38 am

I see dead people. Etcetera.

overthecliff
overthecliff
April 2, 2018 10:43 am

Trump is going to pull US military out of Syria? How will we start WW III with the Russians? That has to be such a disappointment to th Committee for American War Crimes Tribunals and the Neo Fascist anti Semitic League.

rhs jr
rhs jr
  overthecliff
April 2, 2018 1:17 pm

What, have you forgotten Ukraine and Eastern Europe? Also, Turkey is attacking Syrian and Russian forces, and threatening Greeks; and you know we must defend our peaceful NATO ally. And the Russians will be responsible for the massive vote fraud in November especially if there is no Blue Wave.

anarchyst
anarchyst
April 2, 2018 10:58 am

The Vietnam war was not a “civil-war” but was an INVASION by the North Vietnamese communists, who were not amenable to letting people decide for themselves what political system they chose to live under. They wanted “the whole pie”.
The South Vietnamese and American military fought courageously, with one hand tied behind their backs, as they were not permitted to attack the supply lines, logistics and staging areas of the North Vietnamese communists. The American news media played a large part in the sympathetic attitudes they had towards the communists, taking every chance to denigrate American and South Vietnamese troops, a prime example was communist sympathizer Walter Cronkite reporting that the 1968 “Tet offensive” was a “major loss” for Americans and south Vietnamese, despite it being a total slaughter of North Vietnamese communists and the Viet Cong. In fact, the Viet Cong operating in the South were almost all totally decimated.
Yes, the final result of the Vietnam war was communist control, BUT, it was not due to the efforts of South Vietnamese and American troops.
The Vietnamese “boat people” who risked life and limb to escape that communist “paradise” have a totally different story to tell, but which had been rarely reported…
In his “documentary” on the Vietnam war, communist sympathizer Ken Burns inadvertently “let it slip” that “re-education” by the communists was not a “six month deal” (as he claimed) in which those in positions of power in South Vietnam would be “re-educated”, but were actually prisons, in which “enemies of the (communist) state were to be interned for as long as 20 years.
It is interesting to note that the communists could not exert the same harsh level of control as was the case in the North, to the people in the South.

Mark
Mark
  anarchyst
April 2, 2018 3:55 pm

anarchyst,

“THIS TIME WE WIN” Validates your strong post. Kunstler’s opening sentence is bullshit wishful thinking coming out of the left side of his mouth.

“The American news media played a large part in the sympathetic attitudes they had towards the communists, taking every chance to denigrate American and South Vietnamese troops, a prime example was communist sympathizer Walter Cronkite reporting that the 1968 “Tet offensive” was a “major loss” for Americans and south Vietnamese, despite it being a total slaughter of North Vietnamese communists and the Viet Cong. In fact, the Viet Cong operating in the South were almost all totally decimated.”

“THIS TIME WE WIN” AKA TET TRUTH…

“Most of what Americans know about the Tet Offensive is wrong. The brief 1968 battle during the Vietnam conflict marked the dividing line between gradual progress towards an ill-defined victory, and slow descent to a humiliating defeat. The fact that the enemy was, in fact, handily defeated on the ground was immaterial; that they could mount an attack at all was deemed a military triumph for the Vietcong. At least this is the received wisdom of Tet.

In This Time We Win, James S. Robbins at last provides an antidote to the flawed Tet mythology that continues to shape the perceptions of American military conflicts against unconventional enemies and haunt our troops in combat. Indeed, America’s enemies recognize and find inspiration in the prevailing Tet narrative.

In his thorough re-examination of the Tet Offensive, Robbins examines the battle in the familiar frameworks of terrorism, war crimes, intelligence failure, troop surges, leadership breakdown, and media bias. The result is an explosion of the conventional wisdom on this infamous battle, one that offers real lessons for today’s unconventional wars. Without a clear understanding of these lessons, we will find ourselves reliving the Tet Offensive again and again.”

cz
cz
April 2, 2018 11:11 am

(arguably induced by weather war)
there, fixed it for you

Hollywood Rob
Hollywood Rob
April 2, 2018 11:16 am

I really like this post. It is well written and fun to read. But Jim leaves out one, and perhaps the most important point. He ignores the Sunni/Shia conflict in the region. The Shia are apparently less concerned about their Sunni brothers but the Sunni can abide no interpretation of their one religion save for theirs. All of the reasons offered above are well and true, but until the Sunni/Shia divide is bridged nothing positive can be accomplished. And that divide has existed for more than 1500 years and shows no sign of being resolved any time soon.

I personally like Riply’s solution. Nuke the whole installation from orbit.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Hollywood Rob
April 2, 2018 1:18 pm

The Sunni/Shia divide is the positive thing. Thank God they expend some of their energy fighting each other.

TS
TS
April 2, 2018 11:42 am

I stopped reading as soon as I saw the statement that the US got it’s ass kicked militarily. In this specific instance, it doesn’t matter whether we should or should not have been there; Giap himself stated that they were done, we had all but won but the US media won a lost war for them.
“What we still don’t understand is why you Americans stopped the bombing of Hanoi . You had us on the ropes. If you had pressed us a little harder, just for another day or two, we were ready to surrender! It was the same at the battle of TET. You defeated us!

We knew it, and we thought you knew it. But we were elated to notice your media was helping us. They were causing more disruption in America than we could in the battlefields. We were ready to surrender. You had won!”

Typical misleading bullshit. If he’s wrong on such an obvious provable point, why would I consider anything else he has to say?

Col. B. Bunny
Col. B. Bunny
  TS
April 2, 2018 1:14 pm

Thanks, brother. The truth. The Christmas Bombing of Hanoi was horrific for the North. They feared its resumption.

A. R. Wasem
A. R. Wasem
  TS
April 2, 2018 2:44 pm

TS – Good points, all true, but beside the point that JK was making.

jimmieoakland
jimmieoakland
April 2, 2018 11:51 am

Nations states are relatively new phenomena, and even at the beginning of the 20th century, much of the world’s landmass was still dominated by empire, including the British, Austro-Hungarian, and the Ottomans. And nations states are not created equal. Germany and Italy were both unified in the 19th century. Germany went on to dominate Europe, and Italy became a country that consistently has problems even forming a government. There seems to be countries to which the form seems natural, because of historical factors, geography, and religious affiliation; think Britain, France, Russia, Spain, and Iran. Even they are subject to internal conflicts over the centuries, some that continue to arise from time to time. Spain still is dealing with the separatist impulse, for example.

Creating a country out of whatever spare parts are lying around is not so easy. Yugoslavia was kept together by the force of Tito, but once he was gone, internal fault lines fractured and it broke apart.

Whether the “newish’ countries in the Middle East can successfully become real nations states remains to be seen. Syria and Saudi Arabia seem to be little more than family enterprises writ large. The disappearance of oil wealth will certainly be a huge factor, and I would guess that competition between factions, instead of cooperation, will increase, creating more difficulties to forming a viable political entity.

BTW, I agree that the Skripal story is a little suspicious. Because the use of poison is always associated with the Russians, if I wanted to create problems for Moscow, it is what I would use in concocting a story line.

javelin
javelin
  jimmieoakland
April 2, 2018 4:04 pm

Syria is “newish”? Isn’t Damascus the oldest continuous city on the entire face of the planet?

I was a little confused with the tenor being applied of Nixon somehow being responsible for our prolonged stay in Nam. Wasn’t it Kennedy who kicked the whole “police action” into gear and Johnson who ratcheted it up for 8 years?
Military actions were officially ended in Aug 1973 and Nixon didn’t leave until Aug 1974– don’t know how he can be held accountable for the “futzing around” of our complete withdrawl in 1975.

I sure hope Trump doesn’t waffle on this one–bring all of our “advisors” home, stop arming Al Quada and Al Nusra terrorists, and stop paying black ops and mercenaries to cause unrest and train “rebels”………. leave Syria to the muzzies and Ruskies to sort out

NickelthroweR
NickelthroweR
April 2, 2018 12:40 pm

Greetings,
My best friend was tasked with building the prison at Gitmo. Once completed, his next task was to go collect his new inmates with a few detours here and there to our secret prisons. I got to speak with him early on in the war and I asked him a simple question: What must we do to win this?

I will paraphrase his response for you –
Kill everyone. Kill all the men, women, children, old people – everyone. Its gotta look like something out of the Old Testament.

diogenes
diogenes
  NickelthroweR
April 2, 2018 4:51 pm

“Its gotta look like something out of the Old Testament.”

Yaldabaoth the god of love – snicker

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
April 2, 2018 12:58 pm

“…severe drought (arguably induced by climate change) that caused crop failures commenced in 2006.”

[imgcomment image?resize=700%2C362[/img]

Hollywood Rob
Hollywood Rob
  hardscrabble farmer
April 2, 2018 1:04 pm

Hahahaha. You one funny guy HSF.

BTW. How is this years sugaring going?

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Hollywood Rob
April 2, 2018 1:22 pm

I don’t know much about sugaring but since it’s still possible on April 2 to go for a stroll across the lakes here in Minneapolis, I suspect HSF’s sugaring schedule is delayed by a few weeks. It’s like February here.

rhs jr
rhs jr
  hardscrabble farmer
April 2, 2018 1:33 pm

Homosprayus Aluminus Cloud Formations poison the air, soil, and all living cells; block the suns energy to crops and solar panels; hasten the Ice Age; steal the humidity; waste money and resources; are the Elite’s 21st century chains and population bug spray.

Col. B. Bunny
Col. B. Bunny
April 2, 2018 1:29 pm

Mr. K, please try to come up with something more accurate about Nam. The evacuation of the embassy was not emblematic of the whole enterprise. The U.S. military kicked the asses of the NVA and VC and did it at the end of a long supply line with ridiculous rules of engagement, non-interdiction of the Ho Chi Minh trail, non-interference with sanctuaries, and no small number of surly blacks, dope heads, and anti-war draftees. We even told the NV what our bombing targets would be the next day and some moron American officer thought he owed his ARVN/communist spy counterpart the date, time, and location of SOG team insertions across the border.

There is no “climate change” of the kind you contemplate. That phrase is a dishonest term used to avoid the embarrassment of having to admit that there’s been no “global warming.” You’ll recall that was the previous locution beloved of all dishonest, leftist hysterics. How come you haven’t moved on to the new-and-improved “climate disruption”? Any Syrian droughts could as easily have been caused by crumbling infrastructure in Michigan or lunatic feminism.

You’re quite correct that our interest in removing Assad is a complete mystery. My guess is that Israel wants it — and war with Iran — so, as we drink Israel’s bathwater — so there you have the reason why we are wasting blood and treasure there to accomplish a greasy and dishonest purpose.

Penforce
Penforce
  Col. B. Bunny
April 2, 2018 1:53 pm

Time to put away your cheerleader sweater Bunny. There were no winners. War makes losers and I’ve got grave markers to prove it. What you got to prove otherwise?

TS
TS
  Penforce
April 2, 2018 2:47 pm

Penforce –
I’m not sure we’re reading Bunny’s comment the same way. All I see is a factual assessment, not a rah rah for what happened. I agree with you about war, its horrible and no sane person should ever consider it anything but the last resort of survival. But I can believe that and still want whatever is presented to be accurate.

Hollywood Rob
Hollywood Rob
April 2, 2018 6:19 pm

TS, maybe you think bunny is factual because you agree with what he is saying. It seems to me that bunny is trying to convince us all here on TBP that we were hours away from winning bigly in Vietnam and would have if just for the damned newspapers. I suspect that bunny would show up as military with just a little scratching and I also suspect that the scab hasn’t really healed on Vietnam for him. We all have our crosses to bear.

TS
TS
  Hollywood Rob
April 2, 2018 6:42 pm

Well, what part is not factual? The vast majority of encounters between the combatants was won by the US military. Easy to verify. NV was very close to capitulation. Did you read General Giap’s assessment? The list of limitations, restrictions and poor execution of the conflict is true. Again, easy to verify. I’m not offering support for or against that war, that’s not the subject. I agree with what can be verified.
I have no idea what ‘winning’ would have looked like, or how the politicians would have fucked it away. All I know is, via a whole lot of reading and personal conversations with those who were there; soldiers, high-ranking officers, sailors, pilots – they had the military upper-hand. I also worked with quite a few over the years.
So, I ask again; which parts are untrue?

Hollywood Rob
Hollywood Rob
  TS
April 3, 2018 12:18 am

You clearly have read more extensively than I have on this subject. I am just saying that if what you read is the opinion of those who had to run with their tails between their legs then you might think that they are providing facts, they might think that they are providing facts, but it is facts through the optics of people who do not want to admit that for all of the bombs dropped and the lives wasted, nothing was actually accomplished. The facts that you are holding up might be true, but from the perspective of others who were there, not a lot of winning was going on. And in the end, no winning was going on.

Mark
Mark
  Hollywood Rob
April 3, 2018 1:52 pm

Hollywood Rob says:
April 3, 2018 at 12:18 am

“I am just saying that if what you read is the opinion of those who had to run with their tails between their legs.”

Besides the factual point of the debate either way…the above quote is the second time you have insulted Vietnam Vets…once over the malfunctioning M-16 in another post you insulted “us all” with a derogatory slur. I can’t find it…but I remember it.

For the most part you write well and I usually agree with you probably 95% of the time. But as a Nam Vet can I respectfully just say to you Mr. Hollywood:

FUCK YOU.

Mark
Mark
April 3, 2018 1:31 pm

A number of views and opinions especially in the comments:

Who won the Vietnam War?

Interesting Comment from a North Vietnamese man born in 1998

Nguyen Duc Long •
I was born in 1998 and grown up in Hanoi, capital of Vietnam Communism. So this is what I can tell. Educated people and rich people, well, they prefered American. Many rich people or medium class people in Vietnam try to get rid of the country. If you have more money you go to the US, less money, go to Singapore. Although they hate the communists, but they don’t really talk about them. They afraid that the communists will put them into jails or their families. Or if you have already been to another countries, they will ban you from Vietnam for good. However, Vietnam to me is a poor countries with low uneducated people, and with the propoganda of the communist, they really hate America and white people. I have searched some pictures of South Vietnam, and to be honest, Saigon is a beautiful developed city, compared to other North Vietnam city. And still now. Under the communist regime, we don’t have that luxury freedom of speech or that kind of freedom, the real freedom, not like communist “printing paper” of freedom, that American have. Watching so many American movie, I can tell that many American are being like taken that freedom for granted. Sometimes I wish South Vienam would win. Because the communist of Vietnam won in, to me, it means that the Vietnam lost. Now I have to work very hard, so that I could help my family immigrate to a better countries: western europe, australia, the USA, etc. So I don’t know what people in American things, but to me, I appreciate what American do in Vietnam. Vietnam is still a communist country in paper, but the economy system is 100% capitalist. However, many of the “greatest” capitalists in Vietnam are ironically members of the Vietnam communist party. And their children and grandchild have two path. Go to Western Europe or American, spend their parents money, live a luxury life or stay in Vietnam, and play an important role in the communist system with the help of their parents to drain the wealth of poor citizen (90 millions Vietnamese).