BELIEF SYSTEMS

Robert Bronsdon (Hollywood Rob) July 2019

We spend a lot of time here discussing how we think the world works.  None of us really know but we all have our own Belief System (BS) and we promote it to the extent that we are able.  Implicit in our discussions is frequently the opinion that even if we are not privy to the true machinations of the global elite, somebody must be.  I am afraid that I don’t see this as true.  Let me explain.

Perhaps many of you visit Zero Hedge.  It is the source for many of the posts that Jim places in his blog.  If you do visit you will, of course, see the contributions made by people with real names.  These articles, frequently culled from respected journals of higher learning are peppered in between the posts from Tyler Durden, a character from the cult movie Fight Club.

It turns out that old Tyler is actually a pseudonym for what is apparently a group of economists at Harvard.  This can not be confirmed but it was the current theory when I last looked.  If you have more current information by all means share it with the herd.

So if Tyler Durden is indeed a bunch of really smart economists with PhDs in economics, or anything for that matter, then one really should pay some close attention to their opinion as to how the economy is likely to develop.  I am not saying that one should rely on them for investment advice, but I would point out that Jim’s job is investment advice and he seems to hold their opinion in very high regard.

But that is not what this post is all about.  This post is about a post that just appeared on Zero Hedge.  Here it is for you to read:

This Is What Americans Spent The Most Money On In The Second Quarter

As we reported earlier, Q2 GDP printed far stronger than expected, with US households going on an all-out spending spree and at 2.85%, or contributing 138% of the bottom line 2.1% GDP print, personal consumption soared an annualized 4.3%, the strongest print going back to 2014!

So, as we always do, we decided to take a look at what Americans supposedly spent the most money on in Q2, to find the source of this unexpected spending splurge. What we first found is that, unlike most quarters when there was a decline in spending in at least one category, in Q2 spending actually increased in every single category across goods and services.

Now, traditionally we would expect healthcare – a legacy of America’s aging demographic and the Obamacare tax – to provide the bulk of the upside, but in Q2 we found only a relatively modest contribution, with a spending increase of only $15.3 billion compared to Q1. Another surprise was that at a time when auto dealers continue to report declining auto sales on a Y/Y basis, spending on motor vehicles and parts somehow increased by $19.7 billion in the quarter.

But what was the main driver of spending in the second quarter? Well, for some inexplicable reason, in Q2 the American consumer was scrambling to buy… recreational vehicles!?

Here is the breakdown of all the categories that constituted Personal Consumption in the second quarter:

Regular readers will recall that this is not the first time this particular category emerged as a surprise top spending category: both two and three years ago, in Q1 of 2016 and then again in Q1 of 2017, Americans inexplicably again splurged on RVs.

If it wasn’t for the inexplicable splurge on RVs, GDP would have missed expectations of a 1.8% increase.

To be sure, the farcical surge in RV purchases sure would explain why the housing recovery, overdue by about 5 years, still fails to materialize.

Yet what is most perplexing in light of the “data”, is that just two days ago we reported that the RV industry has taken a massive blow from President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and other retaliatory duties on thousands of Chinese-made RV parts, from electronics to LED lights to vinyl.

Indeed, at the micro, bottom-up level, domestic shipments of RVs to dealers plummeted 22% in the first five months of this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. As we added “the RV industry’s crisis shows how President Trump’s trade war has backfired, hurting the industry he promised to protect.”

Tariff-related price hikes have forced RV manufacturers to pass on costs to dealerships, which in turn the American consumer bears the brunt of the tariff, has slowed sales at dealers who are cutting orders and laying off workers.

But it’s not just us who pointed out the plunge in RV sales: Michael Hicks, a Ball State University economist who tracks the industry, warned that the collapse in RV shipments could indicate a wider economic downturn. Hicks said shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions.

“The RV industry is a great bellwether of the economy,” said Hicks, because the vehicles are an expensive and discretionary purchase, easily delayed by consumers who start to worry about their financial stability.

The paradox: while RV sales are crashing, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (i.e., the US government), used this very data set to represent that the US consumer is not only alive and well, but spending more than at any time in the past 5 years!

Surely when looking at such grotesque data manipulation, China can only stand in silent awe and watch as the US shows the world how data fudging is truly done, when the president has a political axe to grind and will steamroll any and all data just to prove that America is great again.

Hollywood Rob back.

So here is a post where in a group of really smart guys can’t see why americans would buy RVs more than anything else in the past quarter.  Well, I ain’t got no stinkin’ degree in economics, but I can tell you this.  There are people all over mericka who are losing their homes and living on the street and the ones who invested in an RV are the only ones who have a roof over their heads.  All the rest of them are all living in tents.  They are everywhere, and particularly in places where it is warm enough to live rough all year round.

There are whole communities of these campers popping up around San Francisco and they are people who actually have jobs, many at google and facebook, but don’t make enough to buy a house.  So they make do with the only thing that they can afford.  Be it a tent from Walmart or an RV that they were smart enough to buy in happier times.  These RV sales are an idicator that people see tough times ahead.  They are buying the only thing that they can afford to stave off homelessness.  It is just exactly the same thing as all of the rich buying up minute man silos to turn them into SHTF bunkers.

If the Tylers can’t see this, then I question their ability to adequately comment on anything about the markets or the economy.  They might be plugged in at the highest levels, but they clearly don’t understand what the common man sees coming down the pike.  we all know that you must have something that the bank can’t take away when the urge strikes and an RV is the cheapest thing that you can buy that can serve as a home during hard times.

Unless, of course, you would prefer a tent from Walmart.

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78 Comments
RiNS
RiNS
July 26, 2019 12:24 pm

I disagree with the premise.

An RV is a terrible idea to ensure a roof over your head. And besides that most of the folks buying them aren’t buying them at all. They are instead taking out 20 year loans which in effect make them renters at best. Because by the time those things are paid off they are ready to be crushed and made into pop cans and cheap Chink Walmart shit…

To me the increase in expenditures is sign of how frivolous our society has become where even homes have wheels and guaranteed obsolesce…

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Hollywood Rob
July 26, 2019 12:40 pm

if you look on Youtube there are scores of people now living in vans and class c motorhomes as a alternative to owning a conventional house.

John
John
  Anonymous
July 27, 2019 12:55 pm

A real RV is a heckuva lot better than some of the “tiny house” crap being promoted. One of those “tiny house tour” channels on YouTube has over 2 million subscribers. They try to make “minimalist living” in a shipping container look stylish. Here’s a sample:

RiNS
RiNS
  Hollywood Rob
July 26, 2019 1:16 pm

Those RV’s are expensive to maintain in winter.
Not designed to be affordable, at least where I live.

A better alternative
would be
Move to the Sticks now
and in meantime
Get outta debt.
Avoid the ponzi,
Don’t HELOC
the house
And if you can’t do that

Rent

And when shit hits fan
Get outta Dodge
As fast as you can.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  RiNS
July 26, 2019 10:04 pm

I live in the sticks. I am now looking at housing developments encroaching on my sticks. I am also looking at rampant over-development all round the area and the property taxes are now approaching thru the roof status. They are pushing to have one million assholes move into the area in the next five years, CA and Illinois turning Texas blue. The illegals are also overrunning the area and soon it will become a blue shithole. I’m with the RV folks here….

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  RiNS
July 26, 2019 1:18 pm

1. They are mobile
2. They don’t pay home taxes.
3. They reduce the home and yard upkeep.
5. They are not tied down to a declining neighborhood.
6. They can drive up the coast like Hollywood Robbie.
7. They can go where the jobs are in Amazon warehouses.

Pequiste
Pequiste
  Hollywood Rob
July 26, 2019 3:35 pm

More people than we can imagine are doing just that.

Capn Mike
Capn Mike
  Pequiste
July 27, 2019 2:54 am

I do it (no, not THAT!) with a boat. A step up in class…

EL Coyote, American (EC)
EL Coyote, American (EC)
  Capn Mike
July 27, 2019 9:28 pm

Too much info Cap’n Sheepfuck.

EL Coyote, American (EC)
EL Coyote, American (EC)
  Pequiste
July 27, 2019 9:27 pm

That sounds poetic, pequisto. Hamlet or Casablanca?

TampaRed
TampaRed
  RiNS
July 26, 2019 6:49 pm

rob,i agree w/rins on this because people who are gonna lose their house aren’t going to buy new,they’re gonna buy used–
i’m betting that a surge of baby boomers just retired,but it’s still a good post–

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls
July 26, 2019 12:52 pm

America on the move.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  Donkey Balls
July 26, 2019 1:32 pm
Anonymous
Anonymous
July 26, 2019 1:26 pm

No matter what the argument for RV sales, the fact is that they haven’t increased, so the GDP number is bogus, which has probably been true for decades…

Misfit71
Misfit71
  Anonymous
July 26, 2019 4:00 pm

Actually, may be anecdotal but I see very solid used RV sales in personal direct sales not using dealers in the area we live – Southeast Missouri. I suspect that is the case as well across the country as people start holding any disposable income to build cash to buy an RV – and maybe even stop and default on credit/mortgage payments too

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
July 26, 2019 1:31 pm

Rob, I don’t wish to discourage you from submitting articles and you appear resilient enough to take criticism anyway but your title is off by a mile or two. Stucky covered the topic on belief systems not too long ago and he did a great job.

Yours is not an article on belief systems at all. It is an article on RV’s. A better title and intro would have been along those lines. I call your intro a bait and switch. If you think the economists missed the meaning of RV popularity, it’s your job as the reader to do the analysis. I’m not the sharpest turd in the bowl but I still spend a few minutes wondering what the hell is going on in the world when I read the titles and breeze through the first paragraph of various articles in ZH.

The way to read a newspaper is to read the headline and the first and last paragraph in a story. – Mrs. Pangloss

M G
M G

As a former editor, I was able to read only the title, first sentence, then jump immediately to the ending sentence to see if I have any interest in what is between.

Usually, I do not.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  M G
July 26, 2019 5:29 pm

That’s women for you, they read your hair and crotch before determining if they are interested in what’s between your ears.

Anonymous
Anonymous

So who cares about a brain on an 20 yo male? Staying power is what counts here.

EL Coyote looking at you, kid (EC)
EL Coyote looking at you, kid (EC)
  Anonymous
July 27, 2019 4:45 pm

T4C?

SeeBee
SeeBee
July 26, 2019 2:26 pm

Don’t let what you read, trump what you see.

NoThanksIJustAte
NoThanksIJustAte
July 26, 2019 3:48 pm

“…if Tyler Durden is indeed a bunch of really smart economists with PhDs in economics, or anything for that matter, then one really should pay some close attention to their opinion as to how the economy is likely to develop.”

Nyet tovarich, I don’t agree with that assertion. I myself, sans PhD, have reached many of the same basic conclusions as those arrived at by your precious so-called “experts” simply through the application of logic & critical thinking. Moreover I was able to do so in real time way before most of your PhD’s had any inkling as to what was happening.

Hence I was able to accurately predict the institutionalization of financial fraud in the American’t economy the moment Bill Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall. I accurately foresaw the degradation of the American’t judiciary system the moment GW Bush repealed Habeas Corpus. I correctly prognosticated the collapse of education in the U.S. the moment Common Core was implemented. I realized the already ongoing moral collapse of the U.S. had been cemented into place the moment Barrack Hussein Obama took office. All these events constituted historically relevant milestones in the devolution of Amerika as a nation, but of course a myriad of other related factors were simultaneously swirling around in the background as well at the same time, contributing and enhancing the impact of all the aforementioned in a plethora of ways both predictable and non-predictable.

One reason I was able to foresee all this is because I have over 20 years experience of living in Argentina. For those of you who are unaware (i.e. probably all of you) Argentina is a country that has been in perpetual collapse since it gained its freedom from Spain back in 1810. Economic collapse? Check! Institutionalized corruption? Check! Degradation of educational standards? Check! Police state? Check! Lack of rule of law? Check! Fake news? Check!
I could on for hours with the comparisons.

The MAIN difference between both nations however, and this difference is truly fundamental, is that Argentinians have learned to adapt and work around all these issues thanks to decades of practice and experience. They have in effect become somewhat immune to the consequences of their environment and lead surprisingly happy and fulfilling lives DESPITE all the aforesaid issues. They are truly experts at survival. Moreover theirs is quite a homogeneous society & culture. Racial divides are non-existent. Access to weapons is heavily restricted. American’ts on the other hand are a the extreme opposite of that: they have no experience whatsoever dealing with any of the problems they will increasingly be facing as a society. They are extremely racially divided, heavily polarized politically and quite frankly as dumb as bricks in the overall context of things when it comes to learning to adapt & change.

So here’s MY prediction for what will happen in Amerika moving forward: it will become, if it is not already, an increasingly politically irrelevant, internationally shunned, nuclear-armed Third World nation dancing on the brink of complete & utter societal collapse and possibly even civil war. A full-blown Police State is also a distinct possibility in conjunction with all the preceding. Whether it will go down by itself or drag the rest of humanity along with it in a desperate nuclear holocaust-fueled attempt to try to remain relevant remains to be seen. The Argentinians have a popular saying to describe what the U.S. has become: “Mas peligroso que mono con navaja” (More dangerous than a monkey with a knife). Meaning that it is both an extremely unpredictable and yet assuredly dangerous creature for everyone & anyone around it.

In layman’s terms allow me to put it another way: if this was Thanksgiving and the U.S. was a turkey (which it kinda IS at this point right now) I’d say to all STICK A FORK IN IT ..BECAUSE IT IS D-O-N-E!

….y bien merecido que se lo tienen la regrandisima reconcha de sus reputas madres sifilíticas! Viva Argentina y viva Rusia tambien!


comment image

NoThanksIJustAte
NoThanksIJustAte
  NoThanksIJustAte
July 26, 2019 3:59 pm

Я люблю Россию!
comment image

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  NoThanksIJustAte
July 26, 2019 5:36 pm

y bien merecido que se lo tienen la regrandisima reconcha de sus reputas madres sifilíticas!
And well deserved do the huge cunt of their whoring syphilitic mothers have it! – eater

That’s not nice, poopy head.

Mygirl...Maybe
Mygirl...Maybe

The pinche Argentino pendajo just loves what he knows because he has never known better. Those happy Argentinians, according to him, lived in a shit society but managed to make do and be happy? Guess the culo just loves him some communista economia where he’s happy to get chicken feet for dinner.

NoThanksIJustAte
NoThanksIJustAte
  Mygirl...Maybe
July 26, 2019 10:42 pm

You guys can barely write in English as it is, I’d leave the failed attempts at translation to some future point in time when you’ve both finished high school. Or get paroled. The yanquis are right: BUILD THAT WALL ASAP DONNY!

And to frijolero #2, it’s spelled pendEjo.

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Mygirl...Maybe
Mygirl...Maybe
  NoThanksIJustAte
July 26, 2019 11:02 pm

Glad to know you can spell pendejo, your education is boundless apparently, now go back and suck some communista cock, embrace your police state and please, keep living over there, we don’t need more illegals running away from there and coming here. We had a great country, too bad it has been overrun by braindead communist leftists and illegals from communist shitholes, but at least while it was great, it was truly great. Jealousy and now gloating betray you.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  Mygirl...Maybe
July 27, 2019 12:32 am

mygorilla, you are a prime example of why I refuse to teach people Mexican swear words; they are too strong and often misused by gringos.
Also, Monte clarified that pendejo in SA simply means, yute. In other places it means dick hair or cunt hair.

Let’s not use a cannon where a flyswatter will do. – Col Pangloss

Mygirl...maybe
Mygirl...maybe

Eternally Confused and Pedantic Mexican American Coyote:
I learned my Spanish swear words while riding the school bus in Jr. High. All my friends and neighbors were of the Mexican American persuasion and my bus mates were determined to teach the little raza blanca some spicy talk. Spanish vulgarity is no more powerful than English vulgarity, vulgar is vulgar in any language.
.
Not once have I ever heard of a child called a pendejo, maybe in SA, but sure as hell not here in the States.
Here is a list of meanings for pendejo (I made a typo in the earlier comment, I DO know how to spell pendejo.) Monte can clarify til he’s blue in the face but swilling communist bullshit while dissing this country don’t cut it, so sorry. Ditto with posting a pic of an American flag stuck in a pile of shit.

pendejo
asshole

Add to list
Dictionary Phrases
el pendejo, la pendeja
MASCULINE OR FEMININE NOUN
1. (vulgar) (unpleasant person) (Latin America)
a. asshole (vulgar) (United States)
¿Quién invitó a mi fiesta a este pendejo?Who invited this asshole to my party?
b. arsehole (vulgar) (United Kingdom)
¿Cómo puedes salir con ese pendejo?How can you date that arsehole?
2. (vulgar) (fool)
a. idiot
El pendejo se estacionó en el lugar para personas discapacitadas.That idiot parked in the spot for people with disabilities.
b. dumbass (colloquial) (United States)
A ver, pendejo, ¿qué es lo que no entendiste?Ok, dumbass, what is it that you didn’t understand?
c. prat (colloquial) (United Kingdom)
¿Oíste lo que dijo la pendeja en la conferencia de prensa?Did you hear what that prat said during the press conference?
3. (vulgar) (young person) (Southern Cone)
a. kid (colloquial)
La piscina estaba llena de pendejos.The pool was full of kids.
MASCULINE NOUN
4. (vulgar) (pubic hair) (Latin America)
a. pube (colloquial)
Muchas personas se afeitan los pendejos.Many people shave their pubes.
ADJECTIVE
5. (vulgar) (coward) (Central America) (Mexico)
a. pussy (vulgar) (noun)
¡Suba, no sea pendejo!Come on up, don’t be a pussy!
6. (vulgar) (immature) (Panama) (Paraguay) (River Plate)
a. childish
¡Qué pendejo es el hermano de Julia!Julia’s brother is so childish!

M G
M G
  Mygirl...maybe
July 27, 2019 5:15 am

He did not know what Me Hoe meant!

EL Coyote looking at you, kid (EC)
EL Coyote looking at you, kid (EC)
  M G
July 27, 2019 4:50 pm

Ecktually, M G, it’s mi’jo and that also is inappropriate for use when addressing somebody way older than yourself. I have been watching Sunset Boulevard on the tube and I can’t help but think of you in the starring role, I recall your pic with the striped stockings looking like Norma Desmond. Hollywood is a latecomer and doesn’t know of all the fun we had before he arrived to louse up the atmosphere.

M G
M G
  EL Coyote looking at you, kid (EC)
July 27, 2019 4:59 pm

Shhhhh! Don’t tell! They’ll Banish Us You Know!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6yqUYW0G-I

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  NoThanksIJustAte
July 27, 2019 12:28 am

I’d leave the failed attempts at translation.. – ate up

I wanted to get your wording correctly and didn’t bother reordering your sentence to make it sound like English. You used the magnifier “re” three times on the root words, grande (big) concha (conch shell) puta (whore). The rest was basic Spanish, so trying to intimidate me by suggesting my translation is lame is a familiar tactic of idiots who should know better; I’m a beaner but I’m not stupid.

I actually had no problem with your comparison. I thought you didn’t go far enough because there was a time back in the 1800’s that Argentina and America had comparable economies. The question I would have you cover is, what happened? You sort of gave it a glancing blow.

I translated your sentence and gave you a mild rebuke which your thin skinned Argentine ego could not handle. Lightweight.

Grog
Grog
  NoThanksIJustAte
July 27, 2019 4:02 am

Yeah, but only because Cristina Fernández de Kirchner had a nice butt, compared to Killary.

Uncomplicated
Uncomplicated
July 26, 2019 4:45 pm

Another theory (and it is just a theory): Boomers were the beneficiaries of the largest wealth transfer in history from their Greatest Generation WWII parents. Now the Boomers are retiring in record numbers and want to travel.

Even a moderate uptick in the sales of RV’s, because of their higher prices, would overtake less expensive items

Or not?

Coalclinker
Coalclinker
July 26, 2019 5:17 pm

I disagree with the premise that people are buying RVs to get a roof over their head. All I can do is relate what I personally see based on what my Boomer, I-blow-money-out-my- ass cousins, do.
I see lots of retiring Boomers who happen to have benefited from wealth building over their lives. Many of these people really like to flaunt it, for every time I’m around them I hear them tell stories of literally blowing money out their ass. The last time I was with the ones who have money, one told about his EXPENSIVE divorce from his second crazy wife, the one who contributed little to the household financials but sure like those expensive vacations. That cost him almost $100,000. He’s the same one who said to replace the pollution control on his mowing tractor it would cost about $5000. I was thinking “holy shit!”
The other cousin is the RV man. They like to travel and instead of getting a hotel room they drive that monstrosity whose upkeep is stratospheric. He wrecked it one time and that was to the moon. Then there are times he has to take it back to the factory to fix their mistakes. Can you imagine having to drive a many hundreds of miles to get your warranty honored? That’s every time there’s a problem.
All I know is that one of these days these people probably aren’t going to be spending like that, and I bet they will be some of the most miserable and unhappy people in the world. Hey, it’s their lives, and that’s fine with me.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  Coalclinker
July 26, 2019 5:51 pm
BB
BB

Meatballs ,this is a good idea. Why buy a house when you never really own it. If you have an RV you can pick up and leave. Besides buying a house is a risky business these days. You never know what kind of people from the third world is going to become your neighbor.We live in a nice neighborhood for now but that could change overnight.

Coalclinker
Coalclinker
  BB
July 26, 2019 7:11 pm

Years ago I had to sell a house after the grandma who lived across the street took in all of her mulatto grandchildren, and I note all of them since her daughters were evidently mud sharks to the nth degree. All I can say is never live in a place unless most of the people there are white.

SeeBee
SeeBee
  Coalclinker
July 26, 2019 7:08 pm

When the Tide Goes Out (AGAIN), then you see who is swimming naked. (paraphrase Buffett)

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
July 26, 2019 7:04 pm

I have another take. I think that RV businesses are almost perfect money laundering operations. They are everywhere, they always have those cheap “no money down, no payments for one year, no credit? no problem” signs and the lots are absolutely jammed packed with units 365 days of the year (and up here that six months of Winter). They give them away to anyone with a heartbeat, show them as being paid in cash, wash the dirty money and hold the notes for the RV’s. The volume of these lots have never made any sense to me and I don’t ever recall driving past one that ever had a single customer.They get to hide the lots in Whitetopias (you ever seen one of these lots anywhere close to a diverse urban area?) where people assume law abiding behavior so it draws no attention and the cartels get to wash enormous sums compared to their nail salon/check cashing/dry cleaners/car wash type operations that nickel and dime their way through money laundering.

A 2
A 2
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 26, 2019 7:16 pm

Yup

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 26, 2019 7:53 pm

HSF,

I don’t get it. Any business that finances a product could “show” the product as paid in cash. Also, how are they “everywhere”? Anything paid with more than $10,000 cash has to be reported also, I think.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Donkey Balls
July 26, 2019 8:55 pm

If you’re the guy carrying the paper, you can show it as ‘paid in full’ when you’ve got an off bank loan and no one would be the wiser. When I say “everywhere”, I mean I live in a state with under a million and a half people, but I know of at least 25 of these lots within an hour of me. There isn’t that kind of demand in all of New England and that’s only my small neck in the woods. I can do the math when I see 300-500 units sitting on a lot that has few visible customers.

Like the nail salon model, it looks like a business, but when you do the math it simply cannot work unless it is being used for some other purpose.

Or maybe I’m missing some gigantic surge in Recreational Vehicle sales where the buyers decide to conceal them from view after purchase. When you live in a kleptocracy, everything looks like a potential scam.

RiNS
RiNS
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 26, 2019 9:06 pm

same here…. it doesn’t make sense.. There are seven lots in just the two adjoining counties to where I live. And between them all there are 500 units for sale. All for a population of maybe a 100,000 people. Those are the new ones!

It doesn’t even include the used RV’s available online….
which number on just one website

https://www.kijiji.ca/b-travel-trailer-camper/nova-scotia/c334l9002

many moar..

And the new units just keep coming..
yeah they will give to anyone who can fog a mirror
but still there isn’t enuf people for all of them.

can’t be.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 26, 2019 9:54 pm

HSF, bare with me and my pea brain.

“If you’re the guy (manufacturer or dealer?) carrying the paper (loan?), you (manufacturer or dealer?) can show it as ‘paid in full’ (how do you show it as paid in full if someone else is waiting for the $$ from the sale) when you’ve got an off bank loan and no one would be the wiser. (For what benefit? To pocket the cash? Eventually, someone’s got to get paid, no?)”

On the history channel, I saw an explanation about how a scam was pulled off by the mafia with gas stations in the 70s(?). The scam went like this…

Gas taxes used to be payable at the end of the year (I’m pretty sure I got this correct). The mafia, instead of paying the tax at the end of the year, would simply go out of business and just purchase another gas station and do it all over again.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  Donkey Balls
July 27, 2019 12:36 am

HSF, bare with me… – Donkey Balls

That’s sick.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls

El, why do you do it? You have more to give to TBP than these lame toots.

Well, I did learn something so there’s that. Bear, not bare.

Mygirl...maybe
Mygirl...maybe

Quit being the little grammar/spelling nazi, and if you must correct then be kind about it. Were you an English teacher in a former life?

EL Coyote on the lookout (EC)
EL Coyote on the lookout (EC)
  Mygirl...maybe
July 27, 2019 4:53 pm

I was a dumb ass beaner in a former life. He walked into it, mygorilla, I had to say something, you know; see something , say something.

M G
M G
  EL Coyote on the lookout (EC)
July 27, 2019 5:53 pm

Some days you get the bear and other days, you just get bare.

subwo
subwo
  M G
July 27, 2019 8:48 pm

Kind of funny how language is. My wife sent me a picture of the caulking job she did behind kitchen sink prior to new faucet install. I sent it on to my older sis saying that wife keeps sending me caulk pictures. She responded that some couples send nude pics and some send caulking pictures. (she didn’t get it) I responded to her that wife was standing around all week with her caulk in her hand waiting for the plumber to arrive. My little sister had to speak it to her so she could get it. Unfortunately they were on a plane and all the seatmates heard it too.

EL Coyote, American (EC)
EL Coyote, American (EC)
  subwo
July 27, 2019 9:25 pm

Uhm, ok. So cell phones work in a plane? 9/11 much?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  EL Coyote, American (EC)
July 27, 2019 9:46 pm

Plane at jetway. Stick to grammar, EC.

EL Coyote, American (EC)
EL Coyote, American (EC)
  Anonymous
July 27, 2019 10:07 pm

You switched from wife to big sis to little sis. I was confoosed.

Ben Lurken
Ben Lurken
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 27, 2019 7:21 am

See Myrtle Beach

subwo
subwo
  Hardscrabble Farmer
July 27, 2019 8:40 pm

I was remarking the same as I traveled south on I-25 to Denver this past week. Sure are a ton of RV lots.

Constantly seriously annoyed
Constantly seriously annoyed
July 26, 2019 7:47 pm

I know a half dozen people buying rvs and selling their primary home and keeping their camps or second houses as a home base.

mark
mark
July 26, 2019 9:40 pm

Rob,

Funny, I posted last night on another comment/answer to AuGee about buying an RV when he asked me what would I do with PM profit (it’s far down on my list, and I would need a lot of excess profit). Just finished reading the RV article on Zero Hedge during my daily scan, then saw your post with the same article.

I would buy one after the doomed dollar eventually gives up the ghost and I have spare profit…but don’t ask me on the timing. I’m shocked, amazed, and thrilled we have gone on this long without the economic GREAT RE-SHIT that the Banksters are grunting out sitting on their Central Bankster Squatty Potty.

My reasons are threefold.

1. I could park it in the woods on my place and use it to house some of the family I will probably take in, if the crash is so severe they are facing homelessness and are getting hungry.

2. If me and my wife or my family had to bug out that RV could be their way to another day.

3. If I am wrong about the severity of what is coming I could actually use it for taking trips!

Lots of people live in them now, but there is not a doubt in my mind masses of many more are going to end up living in them after the GREAT RE-SHIT.

Mygirl...Maybe
Mygirl...Maybe
  mark
July 26, 2019 10:17 pm

I have a chevy cargo van….I have it set up for ‘camping’ and also for hauling stuff for work. I look at it as an emergency home on wheels if SHTF.

mark
mark
  Mygirl...Maybe
July 26, 2019 10:45 pm

I had a 75 Dodge van I bought new, had it fully tricked out, made the back into a tiny room, even put in a miniature bookcase. Lived in it for a couple of months wandering around the east coast and Florida, mostly in the Keys.

I took a similar trip to different parts in 72 with a MG Midget and camping gear, the van was the way to go!

I hope you never need the van for a home but at least you have the option.

Thanks for the kind compliment in the knife post. I have had a rough day today with wasp stings (I developed an allergy in 2012 and almost died from a hornet swarm). I started to go into analeptic shock, had to guzzle some Benadryl and unsheathe the ole Epi Pen…you gave me a smile…no Maybe about it!

Mygirl...Maybe
Mygirl...Maybe
  mark
July 26, 2019 11:09 pm

You deserve every bit of said compliment and, yikes…. Damn wasps….. My father got nailed by a scorpion, his arm swelled up like a balloon, little pus pustules formed and he was in agony for awhile. I keep Claritin, prednisone, and Benadryl and a host of other items because I live in wasp, scorpion, fire ant, wood asp and rattlesnake country. Benadryl is the go-to for a snakebit dog, that and drive like crazy to the vet.

55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
55 Chevy - Mexican by birth - American by coyote
  mark
July 27, 2019 12:39 am

anaphylactic

mark
mark

Hey EC, its hard to spell when your throat is closing!

EL Coyote, American (EC)
EL Coyote, American (EC)
  mark
July 27, 2019 4:54 pm

I have enjoyed your detective stories!

mark
mark
  EL Coyote, American (EC)
July 27, 2019 10:07 pm

Thanks EC…I greatly appreciate that!

Here is a two part Business Detective story about to be published for the second time, it’s true and the owner in the story recently sold his company for a lot of money (years after the incident) and he sent me an e-mail thanking me. He is one of three owners who I know I saved from bankruptcy, because they told me so.

If it is up voted I’ll send the second part.

THE BETRAYAL

THE WOLF PACK
One by one they wandered into The Corner Pocket for the unspoken but understood monthly mid-week gathering. The seedy neighborhood bar owned two pool tables, occasional drug deals in both the women’s and the men’s bathrooms, a well-deserved ugly reputation, but most of all it was a safe place with deep shadows for the Wolf Pack to quietly slink into. All nine of them were spread out around two tables pulled together in the short end of the L shaped recess of the murky watering hole. Three pitchers of beer at a time were ordered and emptied almost as fast as the waitress could shuttle them back and forth. The warehouse manager, a Customer Service Manager (CSM), and seven route drivers guzzled, smoked, laughed, and took turns buying round after round with freshly stolen dollar bills, dollar coins or when the alpha dog warehouse manager wanted to bark the loudest…twenties from the pizza parlor and C-store they all knew he sold stolen product to…stolen product he put on their trucks and they dropped off at his house. They were a loose nit gang of parasites and would betray one another in a New Jersey Nano Second, that was a given, but they circled together for the same reasons sharks do.

The Gang of Nine, as one route driver liked to call them, were raucous and buzzing feeding off the howling pack dynamic and a late afternoon mixture of each ones drug of choice: crack cocaine, pot, various pharmaceuticals (one a cancer pain killer). The two apprentice alcoholic juicers knocked back rapid fire shots. A pack of thieves and addicts…addicts and thieves…hell bent on getting loaded by 6 pm on the tax free rewards of stolen company product and cash. When you had to be on the job by O’dark thirty you got a midafternoon start and ended your mid-week rip before the rest of the 9 to 5 world even thought about shifting into second gear.

THE ENTREPRENEUR
Larry Fresno built the Neighborhood Vending Company from one machine to 17 routes in 25 years through blood, sweat, toil, and laughter. He owned a warm engaging personality that was as popular and well known throughout the Neighborhood Vending customer base as he was throughout the national Vending industry. Fresno was a pioneer in the multi-faceted efficiencies of Dex (the new computer accountability technology) and it’s synergy with cutting edge software. He was the classic entrepreneur visionary in every sense of the word but made the classic Owner/Operator’s mistake of relying on Dex and software for 100% of his cash and product accountability.

Besides his relentless business drive Fresno was as compassionate with his employees…as he was driven to build the company he created from nothing into his home grown version of the American dream. Fresno wasn’t a…The glass is half full optimist …he was a…The glass is over flowing can do entrepreneur.
He intentionally nurtured and was doing everything he could on the one on one level to build a ‘culture of trust’ with all his employees. He intended to create a unique working environment that would build morale and hopefully lower the constant turnover that plagued him and every other operator in his region’s bustling economy. He even reached out a helping hand to a number of employees who were in financial trouble with a generosity that few operators felt or displayed with either their time or money.

Company cookouts, employee car washings done by management, company picnics, birthday parties, paid time off for family emergencies, Fresno did everything he could to pump benevolence into the blood stream of the Neighborhood Vending Company and ruled with a gentle touch. He was an unorthodox leader who managed by his velvet personality, was convinced that technology was the best path to take his company to the next level…and in most ways he was right…until the reality of the betrayal of the ‘Wolf Pack’ left him feeling like the unsuspecting guy who was about to be transported to another dimension, the guy Rod Sterling was talking about in the opening scene of a Twilight Zone episode.

Five months earlier Fresno had attended a National Automatic Machine Association (NAMA) seminar and sat through my PowerPoint on creating a ‘Culture of Controls’. He was stunned on the theft statistics I presented from a national study, 13% of American workers steal at every opportunity, in a company with weak controls another 66% will join in to plunder to some degree if they see the 13% getting away with it, and the most worrisome statistic left, only 21% were 100% honest 100% of the time!

Fresno didn’t think (and hoped in his heart of hearts) that the number of dishonest employees in the Neighborhood Vending Company weren’t anywhere near those levels. He knew he had theft, he always had theft, he considered it part of the cost of doing business, but he left my seminar with a queasy feeling in the pit of his stomach. Fresno made a mental note that if he ever found himself with a serious theft problem he would hire me (he told me this later).

When the shock wore off after what he would forever more refer to as The Call, and it became clear to him that he was being stolen from on a scale that seemed unimaginable, that he had at least 25% of his employees ripping him off daily,

Larry Fresno had an impassioned series of phone calls with me (I was on vacation when he called in a panic) and flew me in to euthanize the leaders of the Wolf Pack. When it all became clear Fresno was past anger, resentment, shock, and he was worried sick and sleepless over the width and the depth of the betrayal. Fresno wasn’t interested in chemotherapy…he wanted the Wolf Pack cut out like the cancer cells they were. To be honest…that type of radical surgery was my specialty.

DRUGS – SEX -ROCK & ROLLAND THE FRUIT OF THE VENDING MONEY TREE
It is true that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. If she was rounding the crack cocaine addiction curve while unexpectedly finding herself not only romantically dumped, but also cheated in a drug deal gone sour by her now ex (route driver) boyfriend…her fury can be mathematically extrapolated from 1 to the 10th power. Heather had met Joe at a rock concert. It wasn’t so much a whirlwind courtship as it was a series of midafternoon to early evening drug induced parties, often with some of the younger single Wolf Pack members and their revolving door female wolverines. They both were still in the emotional honeymoon stage of their ‘affair’ with crack cocaine before either one realized they had slipped over the edge of recreational use into the abyss of gnawing daily addiction. Joe seemed to have a never ending supply of dollar bills and even dollar coins (coins that Heather had never seen before) that he was willing to share with her from what he called, ‘The fruit of the Vending Money Tree’. Joe had provided her a seemingly endless supply of the tiny white rocks that once lit and deeply inhaled from the tiny brass pipe sent them both into the gauzy euphoric haze that had become a craving that now their bodies and minds didn’t just want…but demanded.

Many times Joe had gleefully confided in Heather exactly how he and the Wolf Pack had successfully conspired to steal cash, coin, and cases and cases of soda, chips, candy and especially the caffeine saturated energy drink he would pound down one after another when he had to get up before dawn to go to work. Heather didn’t understand some of it…especially the coin tube scam, matter of fact she didn’t even know what a coin tube was, but she filed it all away.
Months later when Heather realized she had been suddenly and unceremoniously dumped by Joe, the now gaunt, hopelessly crack addicted and completely alone Heather was filled with an eerie sense of Vu JaDe…she had definitely never been here before.

When Larry Fresno got the call from the revenge spewing Heather at first he thought he was listening to Linda Blair from a scene from the Exorcist. Heather’s salty language and ranting guttural tone left no doubt she was past rage and deep into the blood red tunnel of vicious hatred. Joe had bragged often to Heather explaining countless details of the different scams the Wolf Pack was carefully mining to plunder the Neighborhood Vending Company, and she outlined them all to Fresno. It was obvious to Fresno the raving woman that called him out of the blue knew nothing about the vending industry, but everything about the mounting losses that had made no sense to him throughout most of the year. He had been so frustrated and worried by the financial losses, no matter how many price increases he managed to cajole from his customers, he had even entertained selling the company he had created, nurtured, and loved.

When the desperate owner realized how much the jilted girlfriend of one of his route drivers knew about the gushing red ink from his company he offered to meet her in a local restaurant, and if she was telling the truth make it worth her time. Heather’s husky voice suddenly grew cold and unemotional flatly asking for $500.00 in cash. She realized she was just a bold snitch away from her next supply of rocks. When Fresno hung up with her his heart was pounding. After his first meeting with Heather he knew she was telling the truth, he tracked me down (I was just starting a pre-Christmas vacation) and persuaded me to book a flight. I couldn’t resist…it sounded like a real donnybrook!

THE FEEDING FRENZY
The Wolf Pack’s mass feeding frenzy of out of control theft confirmed the all too common reality that drugs will fuel larceny like gasoline feeding a fire. Once one of them figured out that if he popped into the high schools that were the core of the Neighborhood Vending Company’s business, when the kids were changing classes with trays full of candy bars, he could simply sell around the machines. The technique was refined and polished and spread from driver to driver like juicy whispered gossip. Some of them even turned the machines off during the class changing rush to draw even more kids thrusting dollar bills at them. Exchanging candy for dollar bills in the teeming sea of eager teenagers filled their pockets with 50 to 75 to 100 dollar bills in a few visits on a good day. Soon the Greed Growth Factor took over and the candy tray thefts were raging like a California wild fire at the end of a long drought…what are you going to DEW? With the warehouse manager feeding them cases and cases of product as long as they dropped off what he selected at his house, later to be sold at a local C-store and a pizza parlor for .50 cents on the wholesale dollar, one dirty hand spread the grime to the other. The CSM even had a Neighborhood machine on his back porch that he kept stocked with stolen product.

Fresno had been distracted all year while he was primed to grow the business by leaps and bounds. He was getting ready to add two new large accounts, was arranging price increases to balance off the suppliers who were gouging deep into his now none existent profit, and running it all with a razor thin managerial staff. His GM, who was one of the most knowledgeable and connected purchasing agents in the business was focusing more and more of his time and attention on landing bargain front end buys that were his proven specialty. To compound the control fracture the launch of the new software Fresno had brought in at the beginning of the year reminded him of the Columbia disaster, leaving the Neighborhood Vending Company’s newest technology filled with more bugs then the Orkin man sees in a month of visits to a greasy spoon restaurant.

The distractions in Fresno’s life were legion and the Wolf Pack had managed to stay under the radar hidden by constant internal sabotage leaving Fresno baffled and bewildered…until The Call.

THE PRACTICAL AND TACTICAL APPROACH
I preferred investigating conspiracies then lone wolf thieves. They were always easier to divide and conquer then cracking any secretive dishonest loner. The practical tactical approach was tried and true, single out the weak link, jam’em up and flip’em over. After spending two hours audio taping Heather with Larry Fresno as the witness, she was given a c-note with a promise of four more after her information was checked out. Fresno knew from his massive losses she was telling the truth, in spite of so many business positives in the last few years the jig saw pieces of his worst bottom-line in a decade fit together. He would give Heather the rest of the bounty, the detail of her information amazing for a twenty something air head who knew nothing about the industry. The real intent was to keep her quiet until I was finished dealing with the Wolf Pack.

Fresno was exhausted, both physically and emotionally. He knew the nightmare he found himself in with nine dishonest employees working together was as serious as a terrorist attack. He also knew there was no way he could lose all nine at once without losing business…a lot of business. He wanted the three ring leaders made an example out of, the cash and product bleeding stopped, and time to find, train, and replace one fourth of his route drivers.

Fresno and I stayed sequestered in my hotel room pounding out a Case Jacket to document all we knew, which was 99% Heather hearsay, but also with a few Pre & Post machine Audits done on ‘Joe’ at my direction just before I arrived. The Pre & Post audits proved only misdemeanor cash theft on one out of the nine…but it was evidence, the only real evidence we had besides the bulging eyed ranting bitterness of a tattooed, pierced, jilted crack head. Then Fresno and I visited with the Police to take the local jurisdiction’s pulse…finding it barely beating. The Detective Division supervisor was not interested in hearsay from anyone and wouldn’t even assign one of his men to work with me and Fresno. Everyone at the Police Station was getting ready for the Christmas break, shrugged shoulders and bored gazes were all we found. The Neighborhood Vending Company owner and I, the Loss Prevention Subject Matter Expert, were on our own.

Fresno and I worked up a plan to euthanize three of the alpha dogs of the Wolf Pack, while subduing the rest and buying some time to completely revamp, rejuvenate, and reclaim the bottom-line, the future, and the legacy of the Neighborhood Vending Company Larry Fresno had planned on leaving to his young son.

I had a hard time sleeping the night before the first confrontation and ambush of the CSM. As usual I was filled with an edgy anticipation and a seething indignation against these parasites and leeches whose greed and wonton betrayal was threatening to destroy a good man’s life’s work. This was not my first rodeo with Wolf Packs.

This was the type of job that made the cramped endless plane flights and the lonely hotel existence all worth it. I knew two of the Wolf Pack were gang members, and at least one packed a hidden .38 sub nose (according to Heather) and they all swaggered or ditty bopped with a cocky insolence born of the streets.

Yeah they all looked and acted tough, yada, yada, yada, in the next two days I intended to find out just how tough the leaders of the Wolf Pack really were.

To Be Continued………….if upvoted.

Conclusion: Jam’em Up and Flip’em Over

TampaRed
TampaRed
  mark
July 27, 2019 11:20 pm

good story,mark,keep it coming–

mark
mark
  TampaRed
July 28, 2019 1:20 am

Roger that Tampa…here is the conclusion.

JAM’EM UP…AND FLIP’EM OVER
Continued from The Betrayal

Larry Fresno, owner of the 17 route Neighborhood Vending Company was drained and exhausted physically, but even more so emotionally. He knew the nightmare he found himself in with a Wolf Pack of nine dishonest employees stealing together for over a year was the greatest threat to his business, and his legacy to his family he had ever faced. He also knew there was no way he could lose all nine employees of the Wolf Pack at once without losing enough business…to maybe lose his entire business.

The shocking pieces of the yearlong rising cost of goods puzzle had unexpectedly fit together like a blinding flash of the now repulsively ugly obvious. The chronic company losses fueled by a conspiracy that he had never imagined in his most paranoid operator moments could potentially drive him into bankruptcy. Fresno had dealt with theft before, but never on a scale remotely approaching this. Between all the price increases his suppliers were bombarding him with, the new (and incredibly expensive) software system that had been installed at the beginning of the year (crashing wide and deep) had left him groping in the cutting edge technology dark while being systematically plundered by his own employees.

The trapped operator was caught in-between the devil banker and the deep blue technology loan sea. Fresno was dammed if he cut me loose and he ended up with a third of his work force dragged under by their own crimes terminated and or arrested, and dammed if he didn’t and the pack of thieves continued to suck the financial life out of him like the ungrateful Benedict Arnold leeches they were. If all nine were arrested or some arrested and the rest quit out of fear of being busted, his cash flow could be reduced to a trickle pushing the business dominoes over…one onto the other.

Then there was the wild card he had never imagined in his worst business nightmare, hard drugs. Evidently most of the Wolf Pack were not only thieves but drug addicts to boot, and two (to Fresno’s horror) were drug dealers selling off of his trucks! Evidentially the use and sale of drugs (especially by Joe) was a currency they traded like the stolen energy drinks they ripped off by the case and drank by the quart to get started at O’dark thirty. To make matters even worse (if that was conceivable) he had two new significant accounts on the cusp of signing needing to immediately hire two more route drivers, not lose seven, plus a warehouse manager, and one of two of his mid management CSMs!

Fresno had a hard earned inner toughness that he reached deep down into. The owner bucked up. Sensing his best defense was an offense and I was the man to lead the charge, Larry Fresno did what he had to do to save the company he had built from nothing, he fought.

Wild EMPLOYEES GONE WILD
Christmas was a week away, all of the schools that made up the bulk of Fresno’s business would be closed for the long holiday break. Fresno was convinced now was the time to take out the leaders of the Wolf Pack and wrap a tight tourniquet on the slashed financial artery, he had no choice, he had to end the out of control conspiracy both financially and emotionally.

I knew when I got on sight it would be a decisive Search and Destroy mission…knowing Fresno’s business realities he and I didn’t want to get it reversed. After a conference call with Fresno and his General Manager (GM) I laid out a hasty investigative plan that was launched and focused for the week before I could get on site. A tactical machine level investigation on the route driver who they had the most intell on, the route driver who had bragged to his girlfriend he had figured out the High School Candy Box Scam, and the Dex Coin Tube Scam. The route driver who had taught all the other drivers how both scams worked, Joe. I knew some, any evidence was needed, even if it was just an investigative mole hill I could make an interrogation mountain out of it. That was the plan I laid out. I intended to jam Joe up and flip him over to give up the rest of the employees gone wild, and throw down a short term psych to buy Fresno precious time to restructure the bleeding Neighborhood Vending Company.

All we had so far was Heather hearsay and 95% of the details she gave were on her ex Joe, but there was other useful information pulled from the bitter young woman. I had a favorite saying I always told impatient owners, the Interrogation is made in the Investigation, not the other way around, but this was an unusual case and there simply was no time for a program or even a real in depth investigation…so plan B was looming. With the bleeding that was going on Fresno couldn’t afford the normal process, but he also couldn’t afford all of the Wolf Pack to be eliminated or even scared off all at once, otherwise the cure might kill the patent. The Rubik Cube Fresno and I had to figure out was how take out the leaders, but not terminate or arrest or even scare off most of the pack, buy some time, hire and train, reverse the cash drain back to cash flow, then eliminate the remaining blood suckers one after another.

I flew in and with Fresno immediately met Heather, the pretty, rail thin, tattooed, pierced, twitchy, 20 something who had been promised more C-notes for this meeting. I grilled and tape recorded her for two hours. She was obviously telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the repulsive truth. As a Subject Matter Expert trained and experienced in behavioral analysis interviewing and body language reactions to stress I crosscut through human facades (almost instinctively…kinda like an idiot savant interrogator, more of a reflexive gift than a conscience talent) deftly probing, slicing and dicing as the jilted girlfriend poured out details of four major scams Joe had bragged to her about. She was asked the same questions six ways from Sunday, her answers always matching. Her dead eyes were unblinking as the unemotional rote numbness of her snitch explained the worst year the Neighborhood Vending Company had experienced in the last twenty five:

• The High School Candy Box Scam
• The Dex Coin Tube Scam
• Massive Warehouse Product Theft
• Non-Dexed Machine Thefts

Joe had crowed to Heather time and time again that he had invented, perfected, and then trained most of the other route drivers on the High School Candy Box Scam and the Coin Tube Scam, and that all the players were intentionally sabotaging Dex (the new computer program), stealing product, creating meter noise in non Dexed machines, exchanging keys, stealing an occasional key, stealing fuel, goofing off for hours, and howling with glee every time the new Star Wars software exploded like the death star at the end of the first movie. They knew their thefts were not being tracked.

THEGOOD GUYS VERSES THE BAD
Fresno and I had a dozen phone conversations during the week before I flew in to help the desperate owner confront and end the massive betrayal in one fell swoop, without imploding the company. I was a little frayed around the edges from constant travel and had a two week holiday break planned, but this wasn’t a consulting engagement, it was a potentially explosive fight for the business survival of an owner I knew and liked. A dynamic entrepreneur who found himself trapped in a nightmare betrayal on a scale that infuriated my sense of justice. In the simplistic confines of my own mind I often find some things in life black and white. This was one. Fresno was an entrepreneur, a builder, a creator of jobs, prosperity, and livelihoods. A bootstrap American success story…a Good Guy.

The Wolf Pack were self-absorbed parasites who were thieves and drug addicted destroyers disguised as employees, and if left unchecked or handled wrong would suck the life out of the goose that laid everyone’s golden eggs, and bring ruin to the Good Guy. I knew the American employment system was now rigged to protect the Bad Guys. The cops were often useless in an Alice in Wonderland entitlement society that had gone over the progressive – liberal common sense cliff when it came to protecting workers who were viciously gnawing off the hand that fed them. The government inmates had taken over the EEOC and labor board asylum; everybody was a potential victim except the small business operators who drove the economic engine of the country. I knew I had to be careful, razor sharp, and double tough.

This wasn’t a traditional opening client visit, an assessment to analyze and customize the interconnected Training, Technologies, Tools, and Tactics while month after month slowly increasing the bottom line and slowly changing the culture. This was intense, no quarter, stress filled mind to mind combat with a pack of street smart thugs with nothing to go on but a jilted girlfriend’s drug craving rantings, and one week’s worth of successful machine level investigations on only one of the nine Bad Guys. Thin investigation gruel to sip from.

Proverbs 10:9 crossed my mind…it was fitting. “Whoever walks in integrity walks securely, but he who makes his ways crooked will be found out”.

As I thought about the situation my eyes narrowed, my breathing quickened, and I found myself tightly smiling. I always smiled when I heard the bell of the opening Loss Prevention round. No way to deny it…I loved a good fight against punks, thieves, and parasites.

PLANTING THE SEED
CSM Roger Woody walked into the conference room with the GM and was immediately greeted by me as I introduced myself with a firm handshake and a friendly smile. I told ‘Woody’ (as he was called) I was an outside consultant brought in to help senior management solve some operational problems. I motioned the perplexed middle manager to sit down and soon had the CSM relaxed and talking.

The setting was not in the usual interrogation ‘room setting’ I would use when I owned hard evidence and sat directly across from the subject with very little space in-between us, our knees almost touching. Woody sat at the tip of a long oval table bracketed by me and the GM as this conversation was being initially sold as an overture to a key member of middle management for insight, but was really a carefully choreographed verbal dance…a misdirection wrapped in a sharp psych…followed by a sucker punch!

Disinformation was a powerful physiological seed that once planted can bloom overnight into the tree of consuming guilt. In conspiracies the interrogations are interconnected and flow like poison in the blood stream. I knew from decades of trench interrogation warfare a verbal bayonet charge can break the enemy’s will, and there was no truism truer then the fact that there is absolutely subzero honor among thieves.

I had a bayonet up my sleeve from the Heather hearsay on Woody…the 30 something corrupt CSM who was on the fringe of the Wolf Pack. The well known self-absorbed CSM was not popular, matter of fact everyone seem to dislik him. He was not the most active thief, and according to Heather not trusted by Joe, but he was the highest ranking crook. I intended to eliminate the management cog in the theft machine, he was not leaving the room with his job, and at the same time use the CSM’s termination to plant the seed of consuming fear and guilt overnight within the pack with what he told us…no matter what he said.

Fifteen minutes into the discussion I suddenly shifted the tone and the intent of the conversation as it suddenly became a verbal attack. Announcing to the CSM with a hard glare and a confidant air the realities of the Wolf Pack’s specific activities and how it all had been carefully investigated and meticulously documented. My fin cut through the water, the theme music from Jaws began playing in my head. Woody’s eyelids fluttered, his eyes flared as he looked inward swallowing twice, an inner conversation with himself fought back panic, then he hardened, grit his teeth, clenched his hands tightly in his lap, and for the next ten minutes manufactured one phony denial after another. I realized Woody was not a bright man, but when denials are linked together and you have no real evidence on an individual there is a point to say…hey diddle diddle right up the middle…bite him hard and drag him under. The stubborn but scared CSM was repeatedly verbally attacked by me, my tone vicious and eyes glaring into his…the shocked manager stuttered, stumbled, then hung himself with his own tongue.

Heather had told me and Fresno the CSM had a stolen vending machine he kept on his back porch filled with Coke, his drink of choice, and that he stole a case a week from the warehouse. It was a hearsay accusation that the ambushed CSM turned into hard evidence with his own admission…of having done both…from Woody’s lips to my recorder.

At the abrupt end of the interrogation the CSM was past astonished when I left the room and a police officer entered curtly demanding to see his driver’s license, took down his information and issued him a written criminal trespass warning, than escorted him to his car.

Woody was driving home aimlessly trying to grapple with the fact that he had just been terminated…but not arrested, the fact that I had told him that the disposition of ‘The Case’ and his role in it would be decided soon, as there were others in the company that would be answering soon for their well-documented felony crimes.

Woody was so scared his hands were shaking on the wheel as he drove home to get the Coke machine off his porch and hide it someplace!

THE HOTEL HUDDLE
Fresno and I sat in the hotel that night talking over the first interrogation with Woody and the plan to bring it all to a head the next day. Letting the pack absorb one of them being interrogated and escorted out by a cop. I made sure everyone in the Vending Operation saw me after Woody left as I stalked around the building giving everyone hard glares.

The stress was mirrored on Fresno’s face as the first day with the direct attack on the CSM had been a mixed success. Fresno thought the CSM was the most likely dog out of the pack to howl with fear, and he had when it came to his own chronic theft of having stole weekly cases of Coke, whimpering about how old the machine was, but he refused to give anything up about the rest of the Pack…the High School Candy Box Scam, the Coin Tube Scam, the massive warehouse theft, the Non Dex Machine Scam, and we knew from Heather he was in on the fringes of it all. What he did give up on himself was more than enough to terminate the manager who had stolen product for years and looked the other way while the Neighborhood Vending Company had been plundered. Most important of all he was led out by a Police Officer and cancerous disinformation had been planted with him to throw the rest of the pack into a terminal panic.

It was a gamble, but the whole plan was a gamble, but the next day I was going to go after Joe the only one I had real evidence against from hasty Pre and Post audits I had – had Fresno and the GM do just before I got there.

The GM had been stunned by the relentless intensity of my interrogation of Woody. I discovered he had known Woody many years and had even brought him into the company from a past life where they worked together. The GM didn’t want to sit through what he suspected was about to happen with Joe as it was obvious to him I was gearing up for an attack on Joe past cut throat. He wasn’t opposed to it as the realization of the scope of the betrayal from a fourth of the company’s employees had left his stomach in knots, and he was lighting his cigarettes from the stub of the last one. It wasn’t that he didn’t want this to end, that he wasn’t horrified by the scope of the thefts and the threat to his own livelihood, but he had never sat through anything this ugly, gut wrenching, and stressful. He told Fresno and me he didn’t want to be the witness at Joe’s interrogation, and Fresno, who knew his GM well understood saying he was a non confrontational guy, deciding to sit in as the management witness himself. Hindsight being 20-20 it was an unplanned but rock solid pivotal move.

JAM’EM UP AND FLIP’EM OVER
When Joe walked into the conference room he could feel his heart beating in his chest as a sudden acid reflux threatened to erupt. He had hit the crack pipe at lunch, he had to, and that was the only reason he was able to bop into the room with a cocky bravado knowing he could be walking into an arrest for more felonies then he could remember or count. He knew that Woody was fired yesterday by the same investigator he now faced and was escorted out by a cop…but not arrested…yet? There was some kind of investigation going on for months! He didn’t trust and wasn’t sure what Woody had really told the investigator who everyone was buzzing about?

What deal had Woody cut with him? The entire pack had bombarded Woody all night with phone calls (as I hoped) including Joe, but the whiny manager nobody really trusted or liked had sworn he hadn’t given anyone up? Joe didn’t know what to believe, his lunch time tokes smoothing out the giant speed bumps looming out of nowhere in his racing mind.

There was electricity in the air when Joe bopped into the conference room with a forced nonchalant coolness…but I could sense a collective Wolf Pack whimper in the invisable Loss Prevention time warp continuum, and the theme music from Jaws started building its familar menacing beat in my mind.

The disinformation seeding I had planted with Woody the Weasel (his behind the back nickname) was raging out of control in Joe’s fear filled guilty conscience. I had never met Joe before, but once I locked eyes and took the measure of the man I knew I was sitting across from a tough guy with a cracking façade (every drug pun intended). A puffed up but secretly scared street punk. Yea, his pupils were dilated so he was probably gliding on the pipe…but I could still sense and smell the spastic fear no drug could mask…and I had the critical, foundational, and formidable ingredient of every interrogation, evidence. It wasn’t much, only a misdemeanor and only gathered the last week, but Joe the papier-mâché tough guy didn’t know that, and on top of that I had something Joe wanted, fantasized about, but really couldn’t conceptualize…Land Shark killer instinct.

There was no verbal foreplay in my introduction like with Woody, no opening monologue, just a drilled down hard accusation. I quickly escorted Joe into the shadowed realm of his darkest fears, yet dangled hope that would guarantee the dishonest route driver walked out of the room without being arrested by the two Police officers waiting in the next office…if he told the truth. Joe knew the cops were really there as he had seen their black and white parked outside when he drove into the yard. In reality they were two uniformed props I had arranged to be waiting, both thinking they were there because a potentially violent employee was being terminated. I plumed the depths of the drug dealer/addict’s deepest criminal fears when I whispered the location of where he bought most of his drugs (from his former girfriend) dismissing it with a wave of my hand and a side glace at the door that led to the office where the two cops lurked. I whispered my only real desire was to settle vending issues, and hopefully only between the three of us as long as Joe didn’t insult our intelligence and force our hand with turning over what we knew to the cops.

Joe’s voice cracked with his first admission of theft…he knew he was drowning unconsciously deciding to admit to minor theft, stuttering out low dollar admissions…while qualifying how many others were doing it…then out of the blue and in spite of my instructions on just listening Fresno erupted like a volcano!

The owner slammed his fist down on the conference table again and again, cursed repeatedly, pointed a cocked finger of accusation at the stunned route driver and screamed curses over and over. Joe and I were both caught completely by surprise! The usual mild mannered (betrayed) owner couldn’t take it anymore as his eyes bulged out of his head like in a cartoon, and the anger poured out of him like flooding lava! The enraged owner threatened the route driver as slivers of spittle added air borne explanation marks to his righteous rage. This vicious outburst was so uncharacteristic and unexpected from Fresno’s normal easy going, jovial, velvet personality Joe was past rattled…he was scared into an escalating blurting and detailed confession.

I quickly regained control of the interrogation as the now terrified Joe stared at the bulging eyed snorting owner and folded like a cardboard box in a hurricane rain. Joe gave up every scam in vivid detail and every dirty trick of every dirty dog in the Wolf Pack. Joe was jammed up by guilt, fears, rumors, a no nonsense interrogation, and then hit by a sudden explosive emotional sucker punch thrown by a fed up rage filled owner. Joe, the mastermind Wolf Pack alpha thief flipped over on everyone…including himself.

THE TRANSFORMATION
Exactly as Fresno and I had planned and hoped the leaders of the Wolf Pack were escorted out by the Police. After a masterly performance at a group meeting at the end of the longest day in his operators’ life Fresno convinced the rest of the dogs they were safe and the investigation was over. Five of the nine mongrels who were left filed out of the meeting with their tails between their legs, nervous darting eyes obviously greatly relieved. The daily, massive, yearlong theft came to an immediate screeching halt, yet there were enough employees left to keep the company running.

An amazing coincidence happened the day after Joe’s interrogation. It was discovered an experienced vending warehouse manager, who had been downsized because of two local competitors merging, was working as a route driver in training to fill that critical slot, and two former route drivers who had left a year earlier for greener pastures, and were considered honest hard workers suddenly materialized looking for their old jobs back! I grinned when these three desperately needed honest employees popped up out of nowhere. One by one as replacements were hired and trained the rest of the Wolf Pack were quickly managed out…the next accounting month the bleeding red ink had turned black.

EPILOG
Three months later after multiple visits the Neighborhood Vending Company had completed more positive change then most of my clients experienced in a year. Productivity skyrocketed as control after control was built into the day to day operating culture of the Neighborhood Vending Company, and Larry Fresno’s amazing entrepreneurial success story turned the page into a new chapter.

I love happy endings…and big fat consulting fees.

TampaRed
TampaRed
  mark
July 27, 2019 11:07 pm

keep some ammonia close by for insect stings–it’s not a med but it will reduce the pain & swelling,not sure about when you’re allergic–
just slap it on like it’s alcohol or peroxide–

mark
mark
  TampaRed
July 27, 2019 11:37 pm

Thanks Tampa, my reactions have gotten severe. I have to take Benadryl for one or two stings or slam an Epi Pen into my thigh for more serious stings, otherwise I’m going home. I have had to use Epi pens twice and Benadryl twice in seven years.

I was never allergic before 2012. Been bitten by everything with no problems up until then. Picked up some old fence posts in a pile on my farm (had just bought the place) turned my back, there was a huge nest there. Ended up with over 20 hornet stings (two of them flew up my shorts and hit my boys – I think they were NVA Sappers). I barely made it to a local c-store but collapsed out cold as I staggered in.

The clerk called 911, they were passing by on the way to lunch and got there in 2 minutes, otherwise the one EMT said my body was shutting down for the last round up. My blood pressure was so low they immeditly gave me a shot of adrenalin in my heart that saved my life. (I gave both the EMTs and the clerk dinner gift certificates the next day).

I visited the hornet nest with a can of gas the next evening after the NVA hornets went to bed.

Something else I have done every time after I take Benadryl or slam home the Epi Pen is get my Bible out and read Psalm 91 out loud.

TampaRed
TampaRed
  mark
July 28, 2019 12:10 am

somewhere(here ?) within the last couple of years i saw an article about making your own epi pens–about $10 vs hundreds,might be worth it if using them much–

mark
mark
  TampaRed
July 28, 2019 12:27 am

Hmmm…Only used two in seven years and that whole life of death thing has me leaning towards top shelf Epi Pens…plus I don’t want to take a chance on missing all the 4th Turning fireworks that seem to have their fuses lit. Should be quite a show…eventually.

TampaRed
TampaRed
July 26, 2019 11:10 pm

since we’re talking rv s,here’s a good story about an rv dealer who started out w/nothing ,got filthy rich & then beat the left wingers at their own game–
the largest rv dealership in the states,lazydays, is on the eastern outskirts of tampa & it’s a huge complex of several hundred acres,and their $ volume years ago was approaching a billion,not sure what it is today–
the owner bought an old mansion on bayshore blvd in tampa w/the intention of knocking it down & building a new mansion–
tampa has an aggressive bunch of assholes called preservationists & tree huggers –the preservationists kept finding one reason after another to go into court to keep him from razing the house–his atty would go b4 city council & show why he was entitled to a demo permit & the preservationists would get it stopped–
what was the most outrageous about it was that the ringleader was the granddaughter of the guy that built it back around the turn of the century–
finally he had had enough–the next time a permit was about to be issued,he had demolition eqpt around the corner & the moment his atty had the permit in hand the eqpt started razing the house,so appealing the permit was moot–
ain’t that a feel good story ?