In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky.
The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.
But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbour with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbour and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”
But surely, there’s no need to speculate on this concern. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.
The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.
If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.
From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalised.
In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.
However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighbourhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighbourhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighbourhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.
In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.
Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.
Then … unfortunately … the cavalry arrives
At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighbourhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.
Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighbourhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place.
But why worry about the above? After all, inflation is contained at present and, although governments fudge the numbers, the present level of inflation is not sufficient to create the above scenario, as it has in so many other countries.
So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop.
With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.
Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.
In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.
Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured.
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It’s OK, ’cause 75% of America is 9 meals away from heart surgery. They won’t be starving, so much as hungry and infantile. Black Friday’s electronics orgy will be a Woodstock acid lovefest, compared to the impending food shutdown stampede.
It won’t be starvation that kills 90% of everyone in the first few months
of a food shortage. I will be the people who run the power plants and
water treatment plants who abandon them to try to feed their people.
Cold and contaminated water will kill long before starvation.
Be sure to have a means to obtain clean water.
People can survive about a month without food.
3 days without water. Hours without adequate shelter in harsh cold.
Rule of 3’s:
3 minutes without air.
3 hours without shelter.
3 days without water.
3 weeks without food.
Police and first responders will be home watching over family’s safety. Crime will increase and 911 will be useless.
I respectfully disagree. If you look at the fiesta in Venezuela, the Orcs and Orcettes in the employ of the Leviathan were paid, well-fed, and had all the goodies needed to keep them in the thrall of their Marxist handlers. It will be pretty much the same in this corrupt, syphilitic-thinking country. All of the “Back the Blue” flag-waving sheeple, normies, and cucks are in for a very unpleasant surprise.
During Katrina, police left and stores were looted in shopping centers.
Claus Schwab WEF Bill gates and who organization United Nations the globalist banksters FDA CDC will all experience wholesale slaughter for the people they murdured the world will hunt them down and lynch them and their bodyguards. The world court and the country’s they harmed children India Africa Israel England the Netherlands Denmark Finland will come after all of them 5 billion with what’s left of who they didn’t kill yet there working on pleqe Ebola useing chemtrails poisoning the food and water as you read this Obama and soreass was involved in the 40 biological laboratory the world knows now
This ship has sailed and is getting ready to dock…our cities are going down the minute the SNAP card stops working. It’ll be better to run out of food rather than bullets…you have to be alive to eat.
They went down for the weekend a few weeks ago.
“The belly is an ungrateful wretch, it never remembers past favors, it always wants more tomorrow.”
― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich
Wouldn’t hold my breath on the power hungry to suddenly give it up.
Seen these stories about empty shelves for months, yet food is still available. Even with inflation, I still see lines at the grocery store of people with full carts.
Guess we’ll see if the sky falls or not at some point.
Less patriots as time goes on, most have died off in last several decades. Few left to resist the reset takeover. Most will comply follow orders and allow enslavement for their families. Most people are nihilists and self absorbed dumbed down, don’t care what happens and most don’t prep for anything.
As always,tis not black helicopters/antifi types that worry me,tis parents who did not prep for their kids that causes me concern.
I get they will do anything to feed their kids,hope they understand many will do what they have to to keep what they prepped.
This is why I day in and out tell folks I know to keep prepping and when engaging strangers in conversation always bring up the “Blizzard Of 78” and tell em to stock their pantry.
There speaks a man with a history – takes a lifetime to understand this – the young ones have no experience and are unprepared. Always have a Plan ‘B’:
https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/progressing-plan-b-a-quarterly-review?s=w
Society was four and a half decades less eroded in that blizzard, which I experienced, in one of the rudest areas in the country – Boston. People acted astonishingly well and helped each other – total strangers.
This time will be much worse.
Anon,I rode out “78” as a young teen,was actually a lot of fun but lived in country(Dover).
Yes,I did see a lot of folks helping others.
I just use as a example to get strangers to think,do not have time to list the insanity coming our way to strangers,that said,”78″ they can relate to.
Look to what people did and ate in Stalingrad in
the winter of 1943. Preview of coming attractions.
Soylent Red
Long pork.
I was in Lawrence for the blizzard of 78
And how did he feel about that?
Because we live in a more transient society, most don’t know their neighbors and keep to themselves. I live in a highly tranient area (retirement community) I am on the computer most all day when home and read a lot, no time for chit chat.
Woke up to a cold house for 2 days ’78. I really did walk half a mile to school too. Phuking good times.
I only talk to likeminded, discussing what to do with strangers could be a threat knowing you prepped. Adults are responsible for themselves and family, no one else is. Visitors aren’t welcome during food shortages, since most have family and grandkids who haven’t prepped. Majority of people only live in the present.
“We lack expertise in government and the very structure of our governments being Republics dominated by Socialism, means that politicians are always only interested in the next election and constantly run for election with promises of free giveaways.”
Jeff was really helpful when I was writing my book. Even in 2011 he knew where it is going:
https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/the-financial-jigsaw-part-2-food?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=762792&post_id=82277588&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
“We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history.”
I’d sure like to know if that’s in $ volume or % of GDP or etc. Would sure make a difference, no?
And owed to who?
If there was nothing to start with to lend, how did we end up owing quintillions?
Because unbacked, vaporous fiat currency allowed the scum at the top to purchase real property, which we, our children, our grandchildren, our great-grands, ad infinitum, are on the hook for as indentured servants, but in perpetuity.
It’s a derivative financial instrument we could call serf-backed securities. Though they seem to be nearly done taking ownership of the planet, because they seem intent on genociding 95% of us. Goodness knows what their intentions are for the half-billion they’re leaving alive.
I doubt they have any real idea either. The 0.01% seems to be an insane gestalt entity. Nobody really in charge or leading but all of them wiling to lean far to the side of evil and not call each other out, so moving in the same general direction. If not getting fucked themselves, disinterested in who is getting fucked.
No master plan, just do as thou wilt……. as long as they don’t screw each other over too much, fucking the little people is just fine. The only rule seems to be “us first, screw everyone else”.
Second and third generation wealth is almost always held by the reality ignorant. They think they are smart, rich and powerful, when in fact they are ignorant, stupid and totally dependent on others.
I think it all falls apart as they forget that they make and provide nothing. Everything they have and need comes from elsewhere, by others. The same others they will eliminate without thought as to their utility.
Oy vey! You owe it to your circumcised masters in the yarmulkes.
This will be a different kind of Holodomor, the malnutrition of the overfed.
There will be plenty of food availble, just nothing nourishing unless you are already self-sufficient or are part of a community with real farming practices.
Prepare ye.
Type II diabetically fat, yet chronically, nutritionally starved and permanently hungry (and pointlessly clueless, in an age of vast free information resources online). But they do know the diameter of the Kartrashians’ cervixes.
I believe the proper phrase is ‘circling the drain towards anarchy’.
Basics kids, always be prepared. Still works for this old cub/boy scout.
Peace, L.
Anarchy means a lack of centralized, top-down, force-backed government. It does not means chaos, nor disorder. In fact, the biggest part of the chaos and disorder which society (as distinct from government) is currently experiencing, has been instigated or exacerbated by the government.
The conspiracy against anarchy.
The sociopath pretending to be the President did say “food shortages are gonna get real”. They’re making it happen on purpose. Starving your own people is right out of the communist handbook. They don’t care how many people die only that they get what they want which is supreme power.
Which they can only accomplish by mass compliance. We are our own enemy. Thousands can never dominate millions, except by complicity from the subject multitude. Abolish the state. Walk away. Build anew.
“Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break into pieces.”
~ Etienne de La Boetie, The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude (1577)
Everyone seems to have forgotten how early this Spring our dear leaders in the federal government told the UP and the BNSF to cut back at least 20% on fertilizer shipments … basically shutting down our farms to the extent of at least 20% of their possible crops.
And … no … one … did … anything … about … it …
Hope and Change.
I’ve seen some fat fuckers who look like they could go 6 months without food. You can’t tell where the ass begins and the titties end.
There are two women (sisters) that weigh at least 400 lbs near me, both get around in mobility chairs and rollators. They are elderly besides. These people like many others have built in food storage, all they need is water coffee or tea.
My father described how it was for him during ww2 when he was starving and willing to eat anything. He got weak and then deathly ill. he said people were desperate and scary, willing to kill for a slice of bread. he actually was forced to watch as people were put up against a wall and mowed down with a machine gun for stealing food. those Nazis didn’t put up with theft. consider storing essential fats of a sort in ur pantry.
Most preppers think in terms of eating things they like, having meals etc. This could happen. The next step is above. A few bones saved for instance can go a long way. A few beans added is better. Wheat (calories and protein) even better.
Gardens are great but fat (hardest to get), protein and calories are the best.
The Serbian guy talked about how kids got ketchup packets as goodies when available.
Rice stores long term the best, then wheat berries (hard winter red) and last is pinto beans, as they get hard and have to be soaked for a long time in water with a few teaspoons of baking soda before cooking. you could grind them with your wonder mill wheat grinder and make a bean flour out of them. They would still have plenty protein to keep you going.
All these charities in Shitcago are crying nobody’s donating gifts for the yearly niggerthon of free shit for Christmas. When this white man is asked for a donation it’s a definate no.Id rather give a few bucks to a white Alkie outside the liquor store.
Nine Meals From Anarchy
…unless you’re Irish. Then it’s 2 potatoes.
Or no booze!
Yer bugger! You’ll see some Irish Democracy then, lad!
Too often when extolling the virtues of prepping to friends or relatives I’ll have somebody in parting say offhand that at least they know now where they’ll be coming if TSHTF for real. I stop them short and tell them they won’t get anywhere near us then without the ‘password’. The ‘password’ they say, what’s that?!? I’ll then cup my hands up to my mouth like I’m yelling from afar as I say: “I-brought-all-my-own-food!” They’ll look a bit stunned as they grasp with that, but sometimes it’ll evoke a nasty comment like; “That’s not very Christian of you!” I tell them then I’m building a prepping ark or lifeboat that’s barely sufficient for my own immediate family needs. And, that any Christian duty I had was fulfilled when I told & urged them to do the same for their own family, too.