Both sides have been fighting in the Ukraine using World War I tactics, and developments in the war have so far recapitulated World War I.
Towards the end of World War I, the Germans, finally realizing they were going to lose the war of attrition, because of the immense industrial capability of America, attempted to regain war of movement, with underwhelming success, and eventually could no longer attempt to do so. They gained considerable territory, which gains merely put them in a worse position to fight the war of attrition. Like the Ukraine, tactical victories but strategic defeats, as with the costly attempt to relieve Bakhmut, which has resulted in them advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut to a position far worse for them in attritive warfare.
The Ukraine has been throwing reserves at various points on the front, with underwhelming success similar to that of the Germans in World War I, which similarly has resulted in gains that put them in a worse position for fighting a war of attrition. They are now moving troops around from one active front to another, which you only do when desperately short of reserves. I previously posted that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive had started some time ago, and had not been announced for lack of impressive results. That they are redeploying troops involved in active fighting suggests that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive is now most likely over for lack of reserves, though fog of war makes it hard to speak confidently.
In World War I, the incapacity to mount further attempts at war of movement was followed by 100 days of increasingly rapid and costly German defeats and retreats in attritive warfare, and it became apparent that if the Germans did not make peace on any terms they could get, then eventually there would be attritive warfare all the way to Berlin, most German men would die, and Berlin would be flattened. So they cut a deal where they handed over their heavy weapons, but the army and the nation remained an army and a nation. Without that deal, the war would likely have gone on for years, with enormous costs for everyone, but by far the greatest costs for Germans.
And a sane and capable Global American Empire would accept, in a hundred days or so, the deal that Putin has been offering – assuming it will still be on offer after major retreats and losses in attritive warfare. But a sane and capable Global American Empire would probably have been capable of winning.
So a possible and likely outcome is that the war goes on till Kiev starts being flattened and most Ukrainian men are dead. Which may well take quite a while. At which point there is a significant likelihood that Nato will be thrown in to relieve Kiev.
In a full war between Russia and Nato, neither side has any incentive to refrain escalating all the way to nukes. If Nato intervenes the rationale will be that quick decisive victory is attainable, which is unlikely to be the case. So, nukes.
Do anyone’s nukes still work? My guess is that Global American Empire nukes stopped working a long time ago, but some Russian nukes still work.
Nukes were and are made out of components that deteriorate over time, and have to regularly refurbished, reconditioned and sometimes rebuilt. And if you are not testing, your maintenance process is likely to go off the rails when the men that built those bombs retire. The test ban treaty was a stealth slow motion nuclear disarmament treaty.
If someone’s nukes still work, this is likely to bring the war to a quick and decisive end, with relatively small destruction and casualties. I estimate that only about twenty percent of Americans would die in the course of losing a nuclear war, deaths insignificant compared to abortion and all that, and destruction insignificant compared to the Rust Belt and all the Detroits. No big deal in the broad historical sweep that this blog looks at. If, on the other hand, technological decay means we fight World War I all over again, but this time political decay means that it is fought all the way to the end, the death and destruction could be considerably greater. But perhaps, in a hundred days or so, while the Global American Empire still holds most of the Ukraine, as the Germans still held most of Europe, the Global American Empire will figure out that it is 1918-11-11 all over again.
We shall see.
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The likely outcome is that there will be no deal. Russia existing as a whole nation is seen as a major block to globalists / WEF’s one world government schemes. This is shown in their own writings. See John Colemans book ” The Story Of Committee of 300 ”
When Kiev starts getting flattened the false flag nukes come out, or biologicals for that matter.
The gang of crazy always doubles down.
Is this guy on drugs?
No, actually quite insightful.
You should check out some of his other stuff.
Of course that assumes one can cogitate a wee bit.
At least I could come up with a screen name, dipshit.
Oh, and there’s this:
“Relatively small destruction and casualties.” The guy is on drugs, just like you.
Thank you,
Jim’s Blog is https://blog.reaction.la/
No drugs, high on Jesus.
He’s not saying “we won’t get our hair mussed.”
“Depending on the breaks.”
Makes me wonder what biological stuff is hidden out there somewhere. Deployment could be bad news for everyone.
Or chemical weapons dumps, off the coast of many countries?
https://nonproliferation.org/chemical-weapon-munitions-dumped-at-sea/
It would probably be extra super duper catastrophic if a large object struck the planet, hitting one of these dumps directly.
Can I pick the 20%?
Jim, I don’t think hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare are WW1 tactics…Russia just took out another command post with NATO personnel at a great distance…And the urban warfare tactics employed by the PMC Wagner group don’t fall into that category either, and they are not part of the Russian army…Russia is picking Ukraine apart at a distance, and has no incentive to stop doing so…Russia will never agree to a ceasefire deal…
Hypersonic weapons make our nukes obsolete.
Lasers.
Petawatt.
Terawatt.
Been around more than 20 years.
ICBM’s are hypersonic….
Nope……..triad. the subs will get us all.
Also, NATO is running out of weapons and ammo, while Russia and its allies are not, so it would be suicidal for NATO to enter the war without nukes….But Europe and GB will cease to exist if it does…
You know, Kubric was originally going to make a tense thriller about nuclear war, but he found that all the research and government scenarios and possible outcomes were just too absurd, so he decided only a satiric lens would suffice to tell the story that became Dr. Strangelove.
Turns out he fucked up. How? Everyone in the movie is far too sane and rational compared to the reality we are currently living through. Of course, a room full of shit-flinging monkeys is too sane and rational to depict this particular Fourth Turning/Fall of Empire, so there’s that.
Interesting Times much?
Just fuck.
“Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!”
“Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn’t you tell the world?”
Gen. Ripper: “You know when fluoridation first began?”
Gp Capt. Mandrake: “I… no, no. I don’t, Jack.”
Gen. Ripper: “Nineteen hundred and forty-six. 1946, Mandrake. How does that coincide with your post-war Commie conspiracy, huh? It’s incredibly obvious, isn’t it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That’s the way your hard-core Commie works.”
Source
Dr strangelove.
Sterling Hayden was born for that role.
I doubt his assumption about the nukes not working…………methinks this guy is out to lunch.
Ukraine has nearly depleted everything it would need to mount a real offensive fighting a lost cause in Bakhmut.
The collective west, is basically deindustrialized and cannot supply arms and ammunition in numbers that can match Russian production. Any attempt by NATO to intervene in Ukraine would be a disaster as NATO has neither the experience or ammunition to fight a protracted war. It’s air power would take a terrible beating from Russia’s integrated air defenses, and its ground forces are no match for the now experienced and hardened Russian forces.
NATO’s intervention would most probably also trigger China’s, and possibly N. Korea’s involvement on the Russian side.
The current situation is either escalate the war or accept defeat. If NATO intervenes, within months, possibly sooner it will face the exact same situation, either escalate or accept defeat. At that point escalation would involve going nuclear, and facing mutual anhelation. All because of the unchecked greed and egos of the Globalists and their Neocon and Neolib lackeys.
If NATO openly intervenes via combat, nuclear weapons will assuredly be deployed. Especially, after the Russians sink the USS Gerald R. Ford.
While I haven’t the faintest clue as to how this absurdist theater is going to climax, I am 100% certain that the only outcome that will never occur is a nuclear war. Or a joint Moon mission.
Zero chance.
My best guess is that they intend to drive the collective world insane. They appear to be more than halfway there.
anyone who wants to gamble that Nukes won’t work is a idiot. they are on a maintenance/parts replacement program just like the delivery system.