Tag: BLS bullshit

More Fake Happy News About Jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the US economy created 148,000 new private sector jobs during July. The jobs number does not translate into employed people as increasingly Americans hold two or more jobs. For example, the BLS reports that from June to July the number of multiple job holders rose by 233,000 which is 85,000 more than the 148,000 new private sector jobs. What we are seeing is not more people employed, but more multiple job holders. Since May the number of multiple job holders has increased by 534,000. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

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US vs. THEM (PART II)

In Part I of this article I discussed why the “Us versus Them” mindset permeates society and how Trump has become a lightning rod for hate. Now I will assess his progress in fighting the Deep State and try to peer into a murky future.

In addition to not being Hillary, the main reasons I voted for Trump was he promised to build the wall, he promised to repeal and replace Obamacare, he promised to end our foreign military interventions, he said he would bring fiscal sanity to the budget, he said the Federal Reserve had blown an immense stock market bubble, he questioned the fake economic data spouted by government drones, and he called out the fake news bullshit media. When I regularly assess his progress on these issues, the standard response from Trump acolytes is “Would you rather have Hillary?”. No, I would not. But that doesn’t get Trump off the hook for his failures in my book.

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apres moi le deluge

The cheerleader press announced exactly what the government propagandists fed them this morning. The BLS breathlessly announced 263,000 new jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in 49 years. They conveniently ignored the household survey. Some inconvenient facts you may not have heard today, taken directly from the BLS website:

The number of employed Americans DROPPED by 103,000 in April.
The number of employed Americans is 300,000 LOWER than it was in December, 2018.
The participation rate has dropped from 63.2% in January to 62.8% in April.
The economy is so fucking great, 646,000 Americans voluntarily left the work force.
102 million working age Americans are not working.
The made up Birth Death adjustment added 281,000 phantom jobs into the calculation of new jobs. That was the single biggest positive adjustment in history. This is not real. It’s fake data.
In the last year, number of men aged 45 to 54 employed declined by 220,000.

But don’t let facts get in the way of “best economy evah” Trump bullshit. So it goes.

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JOBS NARRATIVE CONTINUES TO BE BULLSHIT

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
― Benjamin Disraeli

I used to write a post every time the BLS issued their bullshit jobs propaganda report once per month. I did it during the entire Obama administration, proving month after month the narrative of an improving jobs situation was a crock of shit. I eventually tired of writing the same shit over and over again, so I stopped.

I’ve now listened to Trump and his non-critical thinking minions boast for two years about his miraculous achievements in creating jobs. Whatever. It would take someone with an ounce of mathematical skills to verify the narrative, but why use facts when a narrative works better on the ignorant masses.

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Lousy February BLS Report: Blip or Grim Omen?

Guest Post by Joe Guzzardi

On second thought, maybe the United States’ job market isn’t as strong as President Trump would like the nation to believe. The dismal February Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a piddling 20,000 new jobs created. Many of those jobs are part-time, minimum wage and don’t include benefits.

As they always do, excuses aplenty exist – bad weather, the traditional winter scapegoat, and critics suggested a different angle as the 35-day partial government shutdown shouldered some of the blame for the weakest BLS report since September 2017.

More troubling, nonemployment among the key demographic, working-age Americans between 35 and 44, plunged in February to a 12-year low. Half of all BLS labor classifications showed either flat or declining employment, with construction taking the biggest hit, a minus 31,000 jobs.

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Despite wage growth, the average American suffers as cost of living rises at a faster pace

Via Marketwatch

Even if the economy is on a roll, many Americans aren’t feeling the benefit.

Real wages effectively declined in 2018, according to figures from the PayScale Index, a formula from the Seattle-based salary comparison site. PayScale said the median increases, when adjusted for inflation, were only 1.1% in the last quarter and 1% over the past year. In fact, when adjusted for cost of living increases, real wages declined 1.3% in 2018, PayScale found.

That runs counter to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which showed an annual increase of 3.2% in average hourly earnings in December, but that’s before accounting for inflation. The PayScale data also stand in contrast to otherwise encouraging news about the labor market. The U.S. unemployment rate remained near a 49-year low of 3.9% in December.

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SOME TRUTHINESS ABOUT “GREAT” BLS UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT

The Employment Report Has Become Orwellian In The Extreme

Via Investment Research Dynamics

“Today’s job numbers might be the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen reported. This Fall could get real ugly real fast. The deterioration of the participation rate is so big it makes me suspicious of earlier numbers.” – John Titus, producer of Best Evidence videos.

Titus goes on to say, “”The Household Survey” is showing a net loss of 1.47 million jobs year-over-year and a Labor Force reduction north of 2 million [YoY]. CNBC headline: ‘Economy adds more jobs than expected.’”

The employment report is unquestionably the most manipulated economic report issued by the Government. The content of the the headline on which the mainstream media bases its broadcast and analysis of the report is entirely disconnected from the actual data contained in the report. The damning data that no one in the financial media or Wall Street seems to be able to find is at the top of the BLS’ report:

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Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2011, Real Wage Growth Slumps

If the jobs market is as good as Trump and his acolytes proclaim, how could real hourly earnings be flat year over year? If the BLS is telling us inflation is 2.8%, you know the truth is north of 5%. The Fed’s excuse for not raising rates above their 8 year emergency level was inflation was below 2%. Now that unemployment is supposedly 3.8% and inflation is surging to near 3%, why the continued emergency level rates? Because they are fucking liars. The rates are this low to prop up Wall Street profits and the stock market. The narrative is all that matters.

Via ZeroHedge

Last night’s Singaporean show was the prelude to the rest of the week’s real action – central banks – and nothing drives The Fed more than inflation anxiety as exhibited by Core CPI this morning… and it printed hot.

For the 32nd consecutive month, the consensus estimate on the street was +0.2% MoM – and expectations were met – pushing the headline CPI to +2.8% YoY (as expected) – the highest since December 2011…

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President Trump’s Real Test

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

PARIS – Well, it’s all settled. This is the greatest economy that the world has ever seen.

The president said so himself on Twitter over the weekend:

Tax CUTS are working. America is WINNING BIG under President Trump!

The Nasdaq hit a new record high – pushed up by its favorite tech stocks. And the latest jobs report tells us that unemployment is at 3.8%, a 50-year low.

Let’s see… a 50-year low. That would put it back in 1968.

When the president refers to making America great again… that is probably what he has in mind.

Biggest Joke

We remember 1968. We were still in college. And in the summer, we had to quickly get a job to earn money so we could pay tuition for the following year.

As we recall, after two days of replying to want ads, we had two offers.

One was in a boatyard in Annapolis, scrapping hulls and painting the “bright work.”

The other was in a motley crew of half-wit foreigners in Baltimore, climbing TV towers to put on a coat of rust-preventing paint.

Neither were great jobs. The second was also dangerous, but it paid better. We earned $5.35 an hour, which wasn’t so bad in 1968.

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Record 95.9 Million Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force

Record low unemployment rate my fat ass!!!

Don’t believe the BLS bullshit. Scanning the Household data proves it is bullshit. If the economy was booming the number of people not in the labor force would be declining, as discouraged people came back into the work force. From May 2017 through September 2017 that was actually happening. The number of people not in the labor force declined by 558,000. The participation rate increased to 63%. This was definitely positive economic news.

Since September 2017 the unemployment rate has supposedly fallen from 4.2% to 3.8%. Sounds awesome. But it’s bullshit. Just the facts ma’am:

New jobs added since September 2017 – 1.15 million

Number of people who have left the labor force since September 2017 – 1.435 million

The participation rate has dropped back to 62.7%. The average number of new jobs added over the last eight months is a pitiful 144,000 per month, while 179,000 per month have left the labor force.

The reported unemployment rate of 3.8% is pure propaganda, not supported by the reality on the ground. Millions of Americans don’t leave the labor force when jobs are plentiful and the economy is humming along. So it goes.

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Dismal March Labor Report Deflates Jobs Recovery Hype

Guest post by Joe Guzzardi

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The March Bureau of Labor Statistics report was a disappointment with the economy adding only 103,000 jobs. March’s poor performance deflated the enthusiasm February’s report generated with its 313,000 new jobs, the biggest increase in 1-1/2 years. From the 320,000 revised February total, the jobs created drop-off measured 66 percent. Since January, monthly new employment averages are 202,000 – not terrible, but nothing to shout about.

As usual, apologists dismissed the employment report’s palpable downside, blamed it on cold weather, a favorite villain. Completely and purposefully overlooked is a more important yet unmentionable variable – federal immigration policy that admits about one million legal immigrants who receive life-time valid employment authorization documents which permits them to work in any job category, and dramatically expands the labor market. Too many workers compete for too few jobs, forcing many Americans who would like to be employed to the sidelines. In March, the number of Americans not in the labor force, measured month over month, increased by 323,000 to more than 95 million.

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More Non-existent Job Growth Reported

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 313,000 jobs in the 28 days of February, causing a big jump in the Dow Jones average. Where does BLS find these jobs?

The BLS finds 61,000 in construction, which, if correct, suggests in view of falling new and existing home sales, that those building at this stage are going to experience financial difficulties.

Manufacturing conjured up 31,000, but in high tech areas such as computer and electronic products only 1,100 jobs were created. Communications equipment actually lost 100 jobs and electronic instruments lost 800 jobs.

50,300 jobs were created in retail trade, allegedly. This is inconsistent with store closings and what seem to be round-the-clock sales at online retailers. Is February the month people purchase cars, garden supplies, and clothing? The BLS seems to think so.

According to the BLS, 50,000 jobs were creared in professional and business services, of which about three-fifths were in administrative and waste services, almost all of which were in temporary help services. In other words, we are not talking about employment for architects and engineers.

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THINGS COULDN’T BE BETTER – RIGHT?

Donald Trump tells me our best days are ahead. Once his tax cut plan is passed, the future will be so bright I’ll have to wear shades.

Sometimes a single chart reveals the truth being obscured by the Deep State propaganda machine, working overtime selling their economic recovery narrative. The economy most certainly is booming for Wall Streeters and D.C. parasites sucking on the teet of Federal government largess. But for the average working deplorable, this supposed recovery has passed them by.

The cognitive dissonance is strong, as average Americans want to believe what their “leaders” are telling them to believe, but their personal financial situation contradicts the narrative. Even using the highly manipulated data peddled by the BLS, any critical thinking individual can see through the lies, misinformation and bullshit.

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Record 95.4 Million Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force As 968,000 Exit In One Month

And the propaganda spewing mainstream corporate media reports with a straight face the unemployment rate is 4.1%. What a fucking farce. Trump crows about the great job market when the monthly average of new jobs has been 160,000 since he took over and real wage growth is 0%. Consumer confidence is supposedly at all-time highs, but retailers keep reporting dreadful results, the savings rate is at 10 year lows and consumer debt is at all-time highs. The bullshit is so deep you need hip boots.

by Tyler Durden

Nov 3, 2017 9:10 AM

In what was otherwise a mediocre jobs report, in which the establishment survey reported that a lower than expected 261K jobs were added to the post-Hurricane economy, the biggest surprise was not in the Establishment survey, but the household, where the unemployment rate tumbled once more, sliding to a new cycle low of 4.1%, for all the wrong reasons, because a quick look at the participation rate metrics showed that in October there was a sharp decline, with the labor force part. rate sliding from 63.1% to 62.7%, back to 4 decade lows…

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About That August Seasonal Adjustment

by Tyler Durden

Sep 1, 2017 9:28 AM

One of the justifications for today’s poor payrolls report is that calendar effects and seasonal adjustments (which oddly are never mentioned when the jobs report is stellar) had an undue influence. And, to an extent, that is true: as the chart below shows, August (and September) have traditionally been the weakest payrolls month over the past two decades.

Conveniently, there is a simple way to normalize for seasonal adjustments: look at unadjusted data. Continue reading “About That August Seasonal Adjustment”