Tag: LA Times Poll

MOST HISTORICALLY ACCURATE POLLS SHOW TRUMP WIN

The final polls are in as of 6:00 am. The IBD poll has been the most accurate poll over the last three presidential elections. On the day before the 2012 election, the MSM polls showed a Romney victory. The IBD poll and LA Times poll showed a 3% Obama victory. They were right then and they’re right now, unless the establishment has rigged the results.

Final IBD/TIPP Poll Results

Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives: IBD/TIPP Poll

See Complete Day-By-Day IBD/TIPP Poll Results

Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Not Sure
IBD/TIPP FINAL RESULTS (‘Not Sure’ Allocated) 43.4% 45.0% 7.6% 2.0% 2.0% –
‘Not Sure’ Shown
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Not sure
OVERALL 41.2% 42.7% 7.1% 1.9% 2.0% 5.0%

LA TIMES POLL


LOOK WHO’S SURGING DOWN THE STRETCH

Two weeks ago Clinton was ahead in the LA Times and IBD polls. Not anymore. Trump is surging in the LA Times poll and has pulled ahead for the first time in weeks in the IBD poll. These were the two most accurate polls during the 2012 presidential election. The liberal talking heads will be putting on a show this morning for the ignorant masses, trying to convince them Clinton is winning. She’s not.


MSM LYING RIGHT TO THE END

I notice all the MSM polls over the last few days have again reverted to Clinto with a comfortable lead. Really??? The news gets worse by the day for Crooked Hillary. She’s one email away from prison. Her minions are talking. The FBI is preparing to pounce. But the Clinton News Network and the rest of the “in the bag for Hillary” press have the balls to publish polls showing her gaining ground.

The LA Times poll begs to differ. It predicted Obama would win by over 3% in 2012 when the rest of the MSM polls had Romney winning. As of a couple weeks ago this poll had Clinton in the lead. Things looked bleak after the audiotape. But, as of this morning it shows Trump with his biggest lead yet, 5.4%. That’s outside the margin of error. He is picking up momentum as we approach the finish line. We’ll see who will be eating crow in in a few short days.


SHIT JUST GOT SERIOUS

The heavily skewed ABC/Washington Post poll, which over samples Democrats by 10% now has Trump leading by 1% after supposedly trailing by 12% just over a week ago. Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post and despises Trump.

The LA Times poll which had Crooked Hillary ahead by 1% a week ago, now has Trump surging ahead by 3.6%. This was one of the most accurate polls during the 2012 presidential election.

Shit just got serious.


Statistician Warns Of “Systemic Mainstream Misinformation” In Poll Data

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Oct 15, 2016 9:00 PM

Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,

Antagonism isn’t perpetual

If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming.  It’s likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day.  The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage.  We’ve discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton’s runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here).

Of course that’s a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced.  For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump’s popular vote could remain in the 40’s% was only priced at 1:6 odds.  Nate Silver’s 538 site also reflected this, as shown below.  But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation.

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