The Legendary U.S. Consumer Is Out Of Cash In These Cities

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Today Macy’s dropped a bomb with results that were nothing short of abysmal, and which confirmed that not only the “legendary” U.S. spender, the driving force behind 70% of US GDP, but also foreign shoppers have hunkered down to a greater extent than at any other time during the so-called recovery.

Quickly the apologists said that this is not an indicator of overall consumer weakness as much as it is lack of retail strength: the argument being that more spending goes to online markets.

There is just one problem: if that were the case, one would see a pronounced deterioration in spending uniformly across US cities. However, not only is that not the case, but there is a very clear distinction in which cities US consumers are doing well, versus cities in which they have been tapped out.

We know this courtesy of Bank of America’s latest credit and debit card usage data which showed a dramatic divergence among the top 10 US metro areas.

As the chart below shows, there is a very distinct slow down in spending in various cities such as Atlanta and Washington DC, both of which saw a sudden and unexpected plunge in retail sales in October compared to their prior 6 month average; sales in Houston on the other hand continue to weaken – the region has experienced essentially no growth in nominal sales over the prior six months. On the upside, the US financial centers, Boston and New York, were the strongest as one would expect.

So for those wondering where the US consumer is all spent out, look no further than the cities at the bottom of this chart.

Continue reading “The Legendary U.S. Consumer Is Out Of Cash In These Cities”

16 YEARS & STILL IN THE RED

Do you think CNBC will be telling you the inflation adjusted Dow is DOWN 1.2% from where it was 16 years ago? Do you think they will be telling you it has broken support and is headed significantly lower? Do you think CNBC or any of the corporate media will tell you the truth?


Chart of the Day

The Dow is currently trading 12% below its May 19th all-time record high. For some perspective, today’s chart illustrates the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900 — there are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half later, the inflation-adjusted Dow is actually down 1.2%. That is not altogether an impressive performance considering that nearly 16 years have passed. On the other hand, take the investor who bought right at the end of the financial crisis. The inflation-adjusted Dow is up a significant 100% from its financial crisis lows — not bad for a for a six and a half year investment. More recently, the inflation-adjusted Dow has broken below support of a trend that has existed since the end of the financial crisis induced bear market.


HOW THE FED HAS SCREWED YOUR GRANDMOTHER

The only way a society can advance economically over the long haul is through savings and investment in capital. An economy built upon an ever growing mountain of debt and consumption is destined to decline. We have passed the point of no return. Those who control the levers of our financial system realized in 2008 their pillaging of the national wealth through luring the masses into debt had reached a peak. The only way for the Fed to sustain their ponzi scheme for a while longer has been to reduce short term interest rates to zero while buying up longer term toxic mortgages of their owner Wall Street criminal banks. 

Despite Bernanke’s pitiful denials, they have thrown senior citizens and savers under the bus. Real returns on short term Treasuries, money market funds and savings accounts have been negative for the last six years and ten out of the last thirteen years. And this is using the fake manipulated CPI figures. Using a a real inflation rate of 5% to 10% shows a devastating impact on your grandmother and tens of millions of risk averse senior citizens. Every day since 2008 your savings have lost money.

The Fed, Washington politicians, Wall Street bankers, and corporate titans don’t give a fuck about you or your grandmother. They don’t give a fuck about how to sustain an economic system over the long haul. They are greedy sociopathic fuckers who want everything you have and they want it now. George Carlin was right.

Continue reading “HOW THE FED HAS SCREWED YOUR GRANDMOTHER”

UNEQUIVOCALLY GREAT NEWS?

Didn’t the MSM spin last week’s retail sales as unequivocally great news? The meme was “the consumer is back and ready to buy”. Checkout the facts in the chart below. Maybe the consumer ain’t so great.

Yeah. If the MSM could just tell the truth, that would be great.

Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales (ex Autos) Turn Negative For First Time Since 2009

 

ABOOK June 2015 Retail Sales ex Autos ex Food YY


The Last Nail In The Millennials’ Coffin: A Negative 2% Savings Rate

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We have extensively covered the economic devastation that currently plagues the largest and most important age cohort in the US: adults under 35, also known as Millennials. For a refresher see Millennials Devastated As American Dream Becomes Nightmare For Most, On Crushing Student Loans, Worthless College Degrees And The Millennials, Dear Recently Graduated Millennials: Prepare To Work Until You Are 73, and of course, Meet The Millennials: All You Ever Wanted To Know About America’s Youth, In Charts. Today, we present the latest nail in the coffin of the generation which none other than Obama said he is betting on to “Help Shape the New American Economy.”

The bottom line, or rather, negative line, is the Millennials’ savings, because “after a flirtation with thrift after the recession, young Americans have stopped saving. Adults under age 35—the so-called millennial generation—currently have a savings rate of negative 2%, meaning they are burning through their assets or going into debt, according to Moody’s Analytics. That compares with a positive savings rate of about 3% for those age 35 to 44, 6% for those 45 to 54, and 13% for those 55 and older.”

From the WSJ:

The turnabout in savings tendencies shows how the personal finances of millennials have become increasingly precarious despite five years of economic growth and sustained job creation. A lack of savings increases the vulnerability of young workers in the postrecession economy, leaving many without a financial cushion for unexpected expenses, raising the difficulty of job transitions and leaving them further away from goals like eventual homeownership—let alone retirement.

 

“In the very near term it’s a plus for spending and economic growth, but in the long run these households are not saving, and that will impair their ability to spend in the future,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics who calculated the numbers with Moody’s economist Mustafa Akcay.

 

the new Moody’s data—using a technique developed at the Federal Reserve to combine its Survey of Consumer Finances and Financial Accounts of the United States reports—show how savings rates diverge across demographic groups.

Here is the problem: recall that Janet Yellen’s “suggestion” to defeat record wealth inequality is for “poorer” Americans to build assets. Well, there is a problem when you can’t even save enough to have $1 left in your pocket at the end of the month after all expenses:

“I’ve been saving almost exclusively in my mind,” said 26-year-old Emily Turner, a 2010 graduate of Villanova University who lives in southern Maryland. Most of her paycheck from the digital consulting and web-design firm she works for “doesn’t even make it to a conventional bank account. I’ve certainly not had the opportunity to invest in stocks or anything.”

The rest is well-known to regular ZH readers:

The problems from a lack of savings promise to reverberate for years. Those who don’t save are unlikely to be wealthy in the future, meaning American angst over wealth inequality seems poised to persist if most millennials are unable to save or choose not to.

 

Young households’ wealth has declined even more than their incomes. In the previous generation, Americans who were under 35 in 1995—often labeled Generation X—earned wages that were 9% higher than today after adjusting for inflation. Now, the median millennial has a net worth of $10,400, down 42% from $18,200 for Generation X, according to Fed data.

Why the disastrous economic data for America’s most important generation? The answer is simple: the economy is, despite all the pomp and propaganda, still a disaster. That, and of course, the $1.2 trillion student loan bubble.

For some young households, the inability to save reflects the weak job market, said Shai Akabas, an economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center. While unemployment nationally has fallen below 6%, workers age 25 to 34 have a 6.2% unemployment rate and those 20 to 24 face 10.5% unemployment.

 

“There’s people who really can’t save because they don’t have the means to save and that’s not a small group of people,” Mr. Akabas said. “If you’re in a $25,000-a-year job and starting a family, it’s going to be very hard to accumulate savings regardless of your consumption decisions.”

 

Another big difference from earlier generations is the rise of student loans. In 1995, borrowers under 35 had median student debt of $6,100, according to Fed data. That has risen to $17,200.

 

For Ms. Turner, debts include $5,000 in student loans, $3,000 on credit cards and $6,000 borrowed from family. “There’s no formal note for that, but it resides in my psyche that I will pay it back at some point,” she said.

 

“I know I shouldn’t have accepted credit so freely,” she said. “But part of youth, the wiring of a young person, is the focus on really short-term gratification.”

And then there is also the fact that Millennials just prefer to live well:

The money mostly went to her social life and travel, [Emily Turner] says: a trip to Central America, a wedding in Southern California, a bachelorette party in Austin, Texas, trips to Atlanta and Charlotte, N.C., to see friends, another bachelorette party in Austin.

 

There was a sign it wouldn’t be this way. After the recession, the savings rates of those under age 35 climbed to 5.2% in 2009 and even briefly surpassed the savings of those age 35 to 44, according to Moody’s.

Don’t worry Emily, soon enough you won’t have the ability to fund such distractions at which point you can once again focus wholeheartedly on boosting your savings.  Best of luck.

And in other comedic news, here is Obama’s recent Op-Ed targeting the Millennials:

Why I’m Betting on You to Help Shape the New American Economy

History has dubbed you the “Millennials.”

You’re part of the first generation to grow up in the digital age. Some of you grew up with cell phones tucked into your book bags, while others can remember the early days of landline, dial-up internet. You’ve gone from renting movies on VHS tapes to purchasing and downloading them in a matter of minutes.

 

Today, more of you are earning college degrees than ever before — and more young people from low-income families are getting a shot at higher education than previous generations. Along with having higher education levels, you’ve got a lower gender pay gap than other generations?—?and we’re working to close it even further. Take all those things together, and it’s no surprise that entrepreneurship is in your DNA. One survey found that more than half of Millennials expressed interest in starting (or have already started) their own business.

 

So here’s something we know for certain: Your rising generation of Americans isn’t just adapting to a 21st-century economy. You’re actively changing it.

 

And we know that when we invest in your potential, rather than stack the deck in favor of the folks who are already at the top, our entire economy does better. It’s the reason we’ve expanded grants, tax credits, and loans to help more families afford college. It’s why we’re giving nearly 5 million Americans the chance to cap student loan payments at 10 percent of their income. And thanks to the Affordable Care Act, the number of uninsured young adults has fallen by nearly 40 percent over the past four years.

You may have graduated into the worst recession since the Great Depression, but today — for all the challenges you’ve already faced, and after all the grueling work it’s taken to bounce back — you’re in the best position to break into the newest sectors of the new American economy.

 

 

Throughout my time in office, my Administration has bet on American innovation. We’ve bet on America’s young people. And today, I’m betting that you’ll continue unleashing new ideas and new enterprises for decades to come.

And that’s why dear Americans young people, you are fucked.

For further proof, see here:

 

 

 

Etc.

McSHITS STILL SHITTING THE BED

How bad must McDonalds food be if the Chinese think it is too putrid to serve? Have you seen what the Chinese eat? The storyline for the horrible US sales has been that competition is tougher, blah, blah, blah. It’s all a crock. The American lower and middle class are so hard up for cash, they can’t even afford the $5 for a crappy McShits meal. Barnes & Noble sales were also negative. Gap sales were negative. Wal-Mart sales are negative. Target sales are negative. Olive Garden sales are negative. It isn’t competition. It’s a country running on fumes while the oligarchs pillage, rape and gut the remnants of wealth.

McDonald’s sales woes continue in August

By Erin McCarthy

Published: Sept 9, 2014 8:53 a.m. ET

McDonald’s Corp. said its global sales fell 3.7% in August as problems with one of its suppliers in Asia drove a precipitous drop in sales in the region and the core U.S. market continued struggling as well.

The sales decline was steeper than expected as Consensus Metrix had called for a 3.1% drop.

In the Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa region, sales at existing locations slid 14.5% last month.

McDonald’s has said it is seeking to restore customer trust in China, where it has more than 2,000 stores, following problems that began in late July with meat supplier Shanghai Husi Food Co., owned by U.S.-based OSI Group LLC.

Authorities accused the Shanghai plant of intentionally selling expired meat to restaurant companies after a television station ran a report alleging the practice.

On Tuesday, McDonald’s said it expects the China supplier issue will hurt third-quarter results by about 15 cents to 20 cents a share, largely because of lost sales, expenses related to its recovery efforts and the effect of these items on the quarter’s tax rate.

Earlier this month, McDonald’s said it is overhauling its food-safety strategy in China after problems with a supplier hit the fast-food chain’s image and eroded its sales in the country.

The Oak Brook, Ill.-based company said in a statement that it will review surveillance video from meat-production sites in China and boost audits of suppliers. Other steps include the creation of anonymous hotlines for suppliers and their employees to report unethical or noncompliant practices and the dispatching of quality-control specialists to all of McDonald’s meat-production facilities in China, the company said.

“We are diligently working to effectively navigate the current market conditions to regain momentum,” Chief Executive Officer Don Thompson said in a statement Tuesday.

In the U.S., sales slid 2.8% as the company faced multiple headwinds, including sluggish industry growth in a competitive marketplace, the company said.

The U.S. has been a particularly challenging market for McDonald’s, where the company has said it has lost relevance with consumers. Mr. Thompson has said that the company first needs to repair fundamentals, such as staffing restaurants appropriately during peak hours, and has noted that the company is working to streamline its menu as previous efforts to roll out numerous menu items served to complicate matters.

Meanwhile, McDonald’s said sales at existing restaurants in Europe ticked down 0.7% as weak performance in Russia offset gains in the U.K. The fast-food chain warned that weak consumer sentiment will likely hurt sales and profitability in the region.

BRUTAL MAY SNOWSTORMS DEVASTATING MCDONALDS SALES

I’m sure McDonalds seventh consecutive month of negative same store sales is due to the lingering effects of winter. It certainly has nothing to do with the middle and lower classes running out of disposable income. I wonder what excuse the Madison Avenue PR maggots are developing to explain the shitty sales that will be reported over the next six months. Or maybe Americans have decided to get in shape and are cutting back on fast food. Yeah, that’s a good one.

McDonalds Has Longest Stretch Without Rising US Sales In History

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Back in April when McDonalds reported its fifth consecutive decline in US comp store sales, the longest in decades, maybe ever, the excuses came fast and furious: ‘The U.S. has been difficult for them,” Jack Russo, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis, said in an interview. “The weather has played a role, and I think the competition is a little bit sharper. We’ve seen better results out of Burger King and Wendy’s.” “Harsh winter weather and “challenging industry dynamics” weighed on U.S. results, McDonald’s added. So only MCD was impacted by weather, not the comps? Mmmk. But more importantly, there was hope so one could just ignore the present and past:“The month of April is going to be slightly improved so there are some positives out there” according to Russo.

Then April came and went, and the much awaited rebounds failed to materialize as McDonalds US sales posted an unchanged month. Perhaps it was the weather’s fault too?

However, what McDonalds will have a tough time explaining is why after almost hitting ‘escape velocity’ and nearly posting positive annual comps in the US, McDonalds just reported that May US comps once again dipped, declining by 1.0%, on expectations of a tiny 0.1% increase, thus cementing the longest period in our records database, a total of 7 months, in which McDonalds has gone without posting a single month of increasing US sales! We can’t wait for the company to blame the blamy balmy, spring weather as the reason why nobody could afford a 99 cent meal.