In the spring of 1980, Paul Volcker did engineer a mini-recession but it didn’t put a dent in the inflation momentum. As shown below by the purple line, real GDP peaked in Q1 1980 and then declined thru Q3 1980 during Volcker’s mini-recession.
Real GDP versus Core PPI, Q4 1979 to Q4 1980.
During that two-quarter interval of “shallow and short,” real GDP contracted by just 2.2%. But the inflation rate (brown line) just kept climbing, rising at an annualized rate of 9.5% during the period.
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