Yellen – Page 2 – The Burning Platform

IT WAS A FEELING

After getting an extra hour of sleep last night I followed my normal Sunday routine of heading to Wal-Mart and Giant at 7:00 am to avoid the onslaught of Wal-Creatures. It was crisp Fall morning with temperatures in the low 50’s with a gusty breeze. The sun was up and as I looked up expecting nothing but blue skies. What did I see? I saw chem-trails all over the sky. If you looked to the left, nothing but blue. Look to the right and you saw chem-trails forming into low level clouds. That pissed me off and set the mood for the trip.

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As I drove the few miles on empty roads I couldn’t help but get the feeling the next few days would be historic and game changing. Normally I just get the essentials I need at Wal-Mart and then make my way to Giant for the food. Today I had a feeling I should pick up a few extras. Another case of water and a few extra gallon jugs to add to my supply. Some more supplies from the emergency aisle. Last week I bought another large propane tank. I’ve had this feeling before, and nothing came of it. But the water and supplies are in my storage area for when I am right. No downside to being prepared too early.

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Don’t Bet on Deflation Lasting Forever

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

More Mumbo-Jumbo

OUZILLY, France – Imagine the poor economist without a sense of humor. How he must suffer! This week was to be dominated by central banks. Two big ones – the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Fed – were to make important policy announcements.

The BoJ’s chief lunatic Haruhiko Kuroda with one of his famous diagrams. How can this not work? It looks so neat!

Photo credit: Yuya Shino / Reuters

The speculators placed their bets, front-running the news, and sat on the edge of their chairs. This week, the BoJ came out with more mumbo-jumbo. “Yield curve control,” it promised. The central bank says it will target a 0% yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds.

It added that it would continue buying the nation’s stocks (by way of exchange-traded funds) and charging a negative interest rate of 0.1% on the accounts banks keep with it.

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Trump Slams Yellen: The Fed Has Created A “Stock Bubble” And “A False Economy” To Boost Obama

by Tyler Durden

One month ago, Donald Trump urged his followers to sell stocks, warning of “very scary scenarios” for investors, and accused the Fed of setting the stage for the next market crash when he said that “interest rates are artificially low” during a phone interview with Fox Business. “The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.”

Earlier today, speaking to a reporter traveling on his plane who asked Trump about a potential rate hike by the Fed in September, Trump took his vendetta to the next level, saying that the Fed is “keeping the rates artificially low so the economy doesn’t go down so that Obama can say that he did a good job. They’re keeping the rates artificially low so that Obama can go out and play golf in January and say that he did a good job. It’s a very false economy. We have a bad economy, everybody understands that but it’s a false economy. The only reason the rates are low is so that he can leave office and he can say, ‘See I told you.'”

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Fed Cornered: Core CPI Jumps Near 4 Year Highs As Rent Rises At Fastest Rate In 9 Years

If the government is admitting inflation is running at a 4.8% rate over the last three months, then you can double that to get the real rate. With wages growing at 2.5%, do you understand why most of the country is pissed off as they become more impoverished every day?

When you see unemployment supposedly below 5%, unemployment claims at three decade lows, inflation running at 4.8%, corporate profits near record levels, Wall Street reporting billions in profits, and politicians expounding upon our resilient economy, why is Janet Yellen keeping rates at .25%?

If these economic figures were true, the Fed should have short term rates at 2% or higher.

Could it be the emergency level interest rates have nothing to do with the economy and everything to do with enriching her banker benefactors and the corporate establishment?

by Tyler Durden

Jul 15, 2016 8:59 AM

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Just as we warned, the gas price ‘base effect’ is pressuring consumer price indices higher (Energy +1.3% MoM – up for 3rd month in a row) but even Core CPI rose more than expected (+2.3% vs 2.2% exp) back near its highest since April 2012. Shelter costs rose 0.3% MoM (but 3.5% YoY – the highest since July 2007), along with increases in education, medical care, and airline fares also sent consumer prices broadly higher. Between surging PPI and this, The Fed is increasingly cornered (and as we nopted last night, running out of excuses).

“We’re starting to see upward pressure on the inflation numbers,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., said before the report. “It reinforces the case for the Fed to resume tightening, though they’re highly risk averse right now.”

Core Cpi back near cycle highs…

Continue reading “Fed Cornered: Core CPI Jumps Near 4 Year Highs As Rent Rises At Fastest Rate In 9 Years”

Consumer Prices Jump Most In Over 3 Years Amid Rising Gasoline, Rent Inflation

Even the liars at the BLS can’t cover-up the raging inflation in gasoline, natural gas, rent, medical expenses, and food. I thought Janet was waiting for a little inflation before raising rates. I guess she’ll need a new excuse not to raise rates as the CPI is rising at an annualized rate of 4.8% according to the bullshit artists at the BLS. It’s over 10% for people living in the real world.

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2016 08:41 -0400

Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM (above +0.3% exp) for the biggest jump since Feb 2013 but sadly at the same time, price-adjusted hourly wages slid 0.1% in April.

Following a small drop in March, from 8 year highs, Core (ex food and energy) Consumer Prices rose 2.1% YoY (as expected) abesent the effect of Gasoline’s huge 8.1% MoM surge.

Of course this is probably transitory but we note that rent inflation remains at 3.7% YoY – its highest since 2008 and definitively not transitory.

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LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES

It’s that time of year again. It’s open enrollment for health plans at my employer. They are biggest employer in Philly and have the most leverage possible with the insurance companies. They have such good leverage that my premiums are going up “only” 9.8% this year for a basic HMO plan. Based on what I hear from others, I should be thankful for just a 9.8% increase.

This isn’t a new development. Since I’ve been tracking all my expenditures using Quicken since 1991, I know exactly what my annual health insurance costs have been every year. Obamacare was passed in 2009 and began to be implemented in 2010. Obama declared that families could expect $2,500 of savings per year. I know for a fact my annual medical expenses were $2,000 higher in 2015 than they were in 2010.

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THE FED CAN’T FIND INFLATION ANYWHERE

The lying pricks at the Federal Reserve give speech after speech about no inflation, keeping rates low, and even blathering about negative interest rates. I guess these idiots don’t need to drive cars, eat food, pay rent, buy houses, or essentially live in the real world. Gas prices are up 22% since mid-February. Food prices are up 6% since early January. Rent has been ratcheting higher at a 4% annual rate for awhile. Home prices have been going up 5% to 10%. Various government taxes, fees and tolls have been accelerating at a 5% to 10% pace. And Yellen can’t find any inflation????

Via Anthony Sanders

CRB Foodstuff Index UP 6% Since Jan 4th (24% Annualized) – It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Inflation

It’s beginning to look a lot like inflation.

The Commodity Research Board’s Foodstuff index is up 6% since January 4, 2016. That is just in a little over 3 months. That translates to just under 24% growth on an annualized basis.

With US Real Average Weekly Earnings 1982-1984 USD YoY at 0.7%, it really does feel like inflation. Although The Federal Reserve thinks inflation is just shy of 2%.

When The Federal Reserve conducts their closed meeting today (and meets with President Obama), I certainly hope it is to discuss rising food prices and NOT negative interest rates!

Natural Gas Prices Should Double

Gasoline prices are already up 30% from their lows in a matter of weeks. That’s how fast things can change in the real world. As more and more oil companies tied to oil and natural gas fracking declare bankruptcy in 2016/2017, the over supply will disappear and prices will rise. Art uses facts to predict natural gas prices will double in the next twelve months.

Luckily, none of us use gasoline for our cars or natural gas for heat and cooking. So, the 30% to 100% increase in these costs won’t effect that CPI number that Yellen keeps telling us is too low. As even the fake BLS inflation numbers jump above 3%, old lady Yellen will say it’s temporary and not raise rates again. So it goes.

Guest Post by Art Berman

Natural gas prices should double over the next year.

Over-supply plus a warm 2015-2016 winter have resulted in low gas prices. That is about to change because supply is decreasing (Figure 1).

Figure 1. EIA U.S. natural gas supply balance and forecast. Production, consumption and supply balance values are 12-month moving averages. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Total supply–dry gas production plus net imports–has been declining since October 2015^* because gas production is flat, imports are decreasing and exports are increasing. Shale gas production has stopped growing and conventional gas has been declining for the past 15 years. As a result, the supply surplus that has existed since December 2014 is disappearing and will move into deficit by November 2016 according to data in the EIA March STEO (Short Term Energy Outlook) .

During the last supply deficit from December 2012 to November 2014, Henry Hub spot prices averaged $4.05 per mmBtu. Prices averaged $1.99 per mmBtu in the first quarter of 2016 so it is reasonable that prices may double during the next period of deficit.

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Obama Announces Unexpected Meeting With Yellen Following Tomorrow’s “Expedited Procedures” Fed Meeting

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2016 21:15 -0400

One of the more significant, if largely underreported events from last Friday, was the Fed’s surprising announcement that it would conduct a closed meeting tomorrow, April 11, at 11:30am “under expedited procedures” during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks.

This is notable because the last time such a meeting took place was on November 21, less then a month before the Fed’s historic first rate hike in years.

Moments ago things got even more interesting, when in yet another unexpected announcement, the White House said that both Obama and Joe Biden would meet with Janet Yellen on Monday to discuss the economy and Wall Street reform, the White House said late on Sunday. The meeting is expected to take place some time “in the afternoon.”

“In the afternoon, the president will meet with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to discuss the state of the American and global economy, Wall Street reform, and the long-term economic outlook; the vice president will also attend,” the statement said.

According to Reuters, the president and the Fed chair meet regularly to discuss economic issues. Still, one can’t help but wonder what will be said in these two back to back meetings, both of which will be closed to the public.In the meantime, we are confident numerous Fed speakers will explain how the Fed may or may not raise rates in the immediate future, unless it of course, does not, all depending on data which the Fed no longer cares about.

ANYONE NOTICE THE 22% INCREASE IN GAS PRICES?

It’s funny how the MSM breathlessly reports the decline in gas prices and how it is truly a tremendous savings to the American consumer. But they are strangely silent when gas prices surge by 22% in the last 45 days. Is this somehow beneficial to the American consumer too? Yellen is worried about deflation. Are you? Rents are surging. Home prices are off the charts. Food costs are rising. Obamacare related healthcare cost increases are destroying middle class households. Tuition is increasing. Taxes are higher. Tolls have been increased. And now gasoline prices are skyrocketing. And Yellen doesn’t have the balls to raise rates above .25%. Yeah, she’s working for you alright.

Q1 GDP Crashes To 0.6%: Latest Atlanta Fed Estimate

Reality Bites

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2016 11:30 -0400

Earlier today we said that following the abysmal January spending data revision as shown in the chart below:

… that “the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 “nowcast” to 1.0% or even lower, which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the “polar vortex” impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away.”

It was “even lower.”

Moments ago the Atlanta Fed which models concurrent GDP, slashed its Q1 GDP from 1.4% (and 1.9% last week) to a number not even we expected: a paltry 0.6%, which would match the “polar vortexed” GDP print from Q1 2015.

Should the number drop even more, will be the lowest since Q1 of 2014 when the US economy suffered its most recent contraction of nearly -1%.

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YELLEN, DRAGHI, KURODA: DERANGED LAB RATS

The stock market has regained all of its loses year to date as economic indicators continue to flash red, corporate profits continue to plunge, consumers continue to spend less at retailers, real wages continue to fall, and housing sales continue to decline. The entire dead cat bounce has been generated through corporate stock buybacks, Wall Street lemmings trying to make up for their terrible year to date investing performance, and central bankers who will stop at nothing to verbally manipulate markets higher – since their monetary machinations over the last seven years have been a miserable failure in reviving the real economy.

As John Hussman points out, the market is poised to deliver nothing over the next decade, with a 40% to 55% “dip” in the foreseeable future. I wonder how many barely sentient, iGadget addicted, non-questioning, normalcy bias dependent zombies are prepared for a third Federal Reserve generated market collapse in the last 15 years?

From a long-term investment standpoint, the stock market remains obscenely overvalued, with the most historically-reliable measures we identify presently consistent with zero 10-12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns, and negative expected real returns on both horizons. From a cyclical standpoint, I continue to expect that the completion of the current market cycle will likely take the S&P 500 down by about 40-55% from present levels; an outcome that would not be an outlier or worst-case scenario, but instead a rather run-of-the-mill cycle completion from present valuations.

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DERANGED CENTRAL BANKERS BLOWING UP THE WORLD

It is now self-evident to any sentient being (excludes CNBC shills, Wall Street shyster economists, and Keynesian loving politicians) the mountainous level of unpayable global debt is about to crash down like an avalanche upon hundreds of millions of willfully ignorant citizens who trusted their politician leaders and the central bankers who created the debt out of thin air. McKinsey produced a report last year showing the world had added $57 trillion of debt between 2008 and the 2nd quarter of 2014, with global debt to GDP reaching 286%.

The global economy has only deteriorated since mid-2014, with politicians and central bankers accelerating the issuance of debt. These deranged psychopaths have added in excess of $70 trillion of debt in the last eight years, a 50% increase. With $142 trillion of global debt enough to collapse the global economy in 2008, only a lunatic would implement a “solution” that increased global debt to $212 trillion over the next seven years thinking that would solve a problem created by too much debt.

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Do We Need the Fed?

Guest Post by Ron Paul

Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed’s announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.

At her Wednesday press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged continuing “cyclical weakness” in the job market. She also suggested that future rate increases are likely to be as small, or even smaller, then Wednesday’s. However, she also expressed concerns over increasing inflation, which suggests the Fed may be open to bigger rate increases.