LIES, DAMNED LIES & STATISTICS

The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.

The corporate MSM immediately shifted the focus to the annual CPI figure of 0.1%. That’s right. Your government keepers expect you to believe the prices you pay to live your everyday life have been essentially flat in the last year. Anyone who lives in the real world, not the BLS Bizarro world of models, seasonal adjustments, hedonic adjustments, and substitution adjustments, knows this is a lie. The original concept of CPI was to measure the true cost of maintaining a constant standard of living. It should reflect your true inflation of out of pocket costs to live a daily existence in this country.

Instead, it has become a manipulated statistic using academic theories as a cover to systematically under-report the true level of inflation. The purpose has been to cut annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security and other government benefits, while over-estimating the true level of GDP. Artificially low inflation figures allow the mega-corporations who control the country to keep wage increases to workers low. Under-reporting the true level of inflation also allows the Federal Reserve to keep their discount rate far lower than it would be in an honest free market. The Wall Street banks, who own and control the Federal Reserve, are free to charge 18% on credit card balances while paying .25% to savers. The manipulation of the CPI benefits the vested interests, impoverishes the masses, and slowly but surely contributes to the destruction of our economic system.

A deep dive into Table 2 from the BLS reveals some truth and uncovers more lies. Their weighting of everyday living expenditures is warped and purposefully misleading. Let’s look at the annual increases in some food items we might consume in the course of a month, living in this empire of lies:

  • Ground Beef – 10.1%
  • Roast Beef – 11.8%
  • Steak – 11.1%
  • Eggs – 21.8%
  • Chicken – 3.7%
  • Coffee – 3.4%
  • Sugar – 4.2%
  • Candy – 4.6%
  • Snacks – 3.5%
  • Salt & Seasonings – 5.3%
  • Food Away From Home – 3.0%

Continue reading “LIES, DAMNED LIES & STATISTICS”

Fed and CPI missing housing inflation yet again: The CPI is completely missing the increase in housing prices.

Guest Post by Dr. Housing Bubble

The most widely used measure for inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) put out by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS).  Nearly a decade ago I discussed how poorly a job the CPI did in measuring home price increases while they were happening.  In fact, during the raging housing bubble the CPI only measured moderate increases in home prices.  Why?  The measurement looks at something called the owners’ equivalent of rent (OER) that essentially considers what your home would rent for versus your actual housing payment.

So you could be paying $3,000 in a mortgage, taxes, and insurance but the actual rent would be something like $2,000.  That is a massive differential.  In the LA/OC market, this measurement did a horrible job.  The argument of course is that rents eventually catch up and we are seeing some of that now.  Yet Fed policy and other government decisions are made on the basis of the CPI and miss big changes by years.  The latest CPI report is now showing this inflation creeping in but of course, it is late once again.  And this is important to address because the largest component of the CPI is housing costs.

The problem with the CPI and housing

Housing makes up over 40 percent of the CPI tool which is a by far, the biggest component.  So wouldn’t you want this instrument to accurately measure home value changes?  We now have plenty of tools that can give a better indicator of home price changes like the Case-Shiller Index.  There has been large pressure on home prices recently thanks to many years of slow home building and a lack of inventory.  We also had the interesting phenomenon of investors diving into the market since the crash and being a dominant force.

First, it might be useful to look at how the CPI is composed:

CPI-categories

Even looking at three categories in housing, education, and healthcare we know that costs are soaring.  Yet the overall CPI has showed only tiny increases in prices.  This is completely off base nationally and doubly so in bubblicious markets like California where people need to move into apartments with roommates as if they were crowding into clown cars to make the rent.

Continue reading “Fed and CPI missing housing inflation yet again: The CPI is completely missing the increase in housing prices.”