“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Strauss & Howe wrote these words in 1997. They had predicted the arrival of another Crisis in this time frame in their previous book Generations, written in 1990. This wasn’t guesswork on their part. They understood the dynamics of how generations interact and how the mood of the country shifts every twenty or so years based upon the generational alignment that occurs as predictably as the turning of the seasons. The last generation that lived through the entire previous Crisis from 1929 through 1946 has virtually died off. This always signals the onset of the next Fourth Turning. The housing bubble and its ultimate implosion created the spark for the current Crisis that began in September 2008, with the near meltdown of the worldwide financial system. Just as the stock market crash of 1929, the election of Lincoln in 1860, and the Boston Tea Party in 1773 catalyzed a dramatic mood change in the country, the Wall Street created financial collapse in 2008 has ushered in a twenty year period of agony, suffering, war and ultimately the annihilation of the existing social order.
We have experienced the American High (Spring) from 1946 until 1964, witnessing America’s ascendancy as a global superpower. We survived the turbulent Consciousness Revolution Awakening (Summer) from 1964 until 1984, as Vietnam era protests morphed into yuppie era greed. The Long Boom/Culture Wars Unraveling (Fall) lasted from Reagan’s Morning in America in 1984 until the 2008 Wall Street/Federal Reserve spawned crash. The pessimism built to a crescendo as worry about rising violence and incivility, widening wealth inequality, and the splitting of the national consensus into extremes on the left and right, led the country into a winter of discontent. The Global Financial Crisis (Winter) has arrived in full fury and is likely to last until the late 2020’s. It will be an era of upheaval, financial turbulence, economic collapse, war, and the complete redefinition of society, as the existing corrupt status quo is swept away in the fury of powerful hurricane winds of change. History is cyclical and we’ve entered the most dangerous season, when the choices we make as a nation will have profound long lasting implications to the lives of future unborn generations.
The linear thinkers and so called progressives who believe that history charges relentlessly forward and human ingenuity overcomes all obstacles as the world becomes progressively richer, advanced, and humane ignore the lessons of history that have been re-written every 80 to 100 years for centuries. Generational theory is so simple that even an Ivy League intellectual economist, corrupt congressman, or CNBC anchor bimbo could grasp the basic concept. The four turnings in the ongoing cycle of history match a long human life. There is a reason we forget the lessons of the past. Those who remember the lessons die off after 80 years. The linear thinking status quo keep predicting an improving economy based upon their beliefs that the next fifteen years will proceed in a similar fashion to the last fifteen years. They refuse to acknowledge we’ve entered a new era that cannot be reversed to a previous point in time. Once you’ve experienced the harsh bitter winds of the Winter, you have to deal with months of depressing darkness, harsh conditions, and stormy weather before experiencing the return of the warm breezes of Spring. The tranquil days of autumn are long gone. This dynamic can be clearly visualized by comparing our economic situation in 2007, prior to entering this Fourth Turning, to our economic situation today:
End of Unraveling in 2007 versus fourth year of Crisis in 2012
- In 2007, the unemployment rate was 4.6%; 146 million people, or 63% of the working age population, were employed; and 78 million Americans were not in the labor force. Today, after three years of “recovery”, the unemployment rate is 7.9%; 143 million people, or 58.8% of the working age population are employed; and 88 million Americans are not in the labor force.
- Real median household income was $55,039 in 2007. It has fallen by 8.2% to $50,502 today.
- BLS reported inflation has risen by 12% since 2007. True inflation has risen at twice that rate.
- Median net worth in 2007 was $126,400. By 2010 it had fallen to $77,300, a 39% drop in three years. As of today, it may be a few thousand dollars higher as stock prices have risen and home prices have stopped falling.
- In 2007 there were 5.7 million existing homes sold at a median price of $218,900. Today there are 4.3 million existing homes being sold at a median price of $183,900. Over 1 million of these home sales are foreclosures or short sales, as 30% of all the homes with a mortgage in the country owe more than their house is worth.
- Federal government spending in 2007 was $2.73 trillion. Federal government spending today is $3.8 trillion, a 39% increase in five years. GDP in 2007 was $14.2 trillion. Today GDP is $15.8 trillion, an 11% increase in five years. Approximately 25% of the GDP increase is due to increased government spending.
- Government entitlement transfers totaled $1.7 trillion in 2007. Today they total $2.4 trillion, a 41% increase in five years. Interest income paid to senior citizens and savers totaled $1.25 trillion in 2007. Today interest income totals $985 billion, a 21% decrease in five years. Wall Street bankers needed the money to pay themselves bonuses, so Ben Bernanke obliged.
- The annual deficit in 2007 totaled $161 billion. Today, the annual deficit is $1.1 trillion. We add $3 billion per day to the national debt as a gift to unborn generations.
- The national debt in 2007 was $9 trillion. Today the national debt is $16.3 trillion, an 81% increase in five years. The national debt will reach $20 trillion during the next presidential term. Normalization of interest rates to 2007 levels would result in annual interest expense of $1 trillion, or 40% of current government revenues.
There is nothing normal about our current economic situation. The unfunded liabilities at the Federal, State and local levels of government accumulate to over $200 trillion. Do the facts detailed above lead you to believe we can return to pre-2007 normal in the near future, or ever? Not only has the economic situation of the country deteriorated enormously, the very culprits who created the disaster are more powerful than they were before the global catastrophe caused by their criminal risk taking. The largest Wall Street banks control 74% of all the deposits in the country, up from 66% in 2007, and double the levels from the mid-1990’s. These bastions of capitalism wield all of the power in this country, dictating who wins elections, who writes the laws, and who benefits from the distribution of wealth. Only in a corrupt, crony-capitalist, citadel of kleptocracy could the perpetrators of the greatest theft of national wealth in the history of mankind be rewarded with taxpayer financed bailouts, the ability to borrow an unlimited amount of fiat currency at 0% from a Central Bank they control, write the new banking regulations and be applauded by their corporate mainstream media for becoming even Too Bigger to Fail. This Fourth Turning will ultimately come down to a clash between the people and the Wall Street filth.
Those in power today are using their ample wealth and control over the legal, economic and political systems to pretend that an epic crisis does not beckon at our doorstep. Propaganda and media spin cannot avert the brutally hard choices that must be made over the next fifteen years. The existing system is unsustainable. It can either be changed by choice or after a complete collapse. We haven’t reached the point of regeneracy yet when civic purpose begins to strengthen. The outcome of this presidential election will determine the next phase of this Crisis. Strauss & Howe described the normal course of a crisis in 1997:
“A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice. People support new efforts to wield public authority, whose perceived successes soon justify more of the same. Government governs, community obstacles are removed, and laws and customs that resisted change for decades are swiftly shunted aside. A grim preoccupation with civic peril causes spiritual curiosity to decline. Public order tightens, private risk-taking abates, and crime and substance abuse decline. Families strengthen, gender distinctions widen, and child-rearing reaches a smothering degree of protection and structure. The young focus their energy on worldly achievements, leaving values in the hands of the old. Wars are fought with fury and for maximum result.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Clearly this country has not reached a common consensus and is split 50%/50% on most important issues. Debates about the role of government are waged with vitriolic passion, but the reality is that, as in past Fourth Turnings, the government has already assumed a greater level of power and control over our lives. The majority believe that government can protect them, provide for them, and pay their way. This is a delusion which will be revealed as fraudulent and mathematically impossible. The incompetent government preparation prior to Superstorm Sandy and the dysfunctional, bureaucratic and painfully slow response afterward are opening the eyes of many people. The decisions which are yet to be made are what kind of society shall we be and who will be required to sacrifice to achieve a positive outcome at the end of this Crisis. Turnings are driven by a mood change in the country and the constellation of generations at that point in time. The generations are now aligned as they always are during a Crisis:
- Boomers entering elderhood
- Gen-Xers entering midlife
- Millennials entering young adulthood
- Homelanders entering childhood
History does not repeat but it does rhyme, because of the cyclical nature of human experience. The specific events that drive this Crisis are unknowable, but the generational response to these events can be predicted with uncanny accuracy. Each generation will play its assigned role during this Crisis. The current generational configuration will propel events and create a feedback loop that will change the course of human history on a scale consistent with the Depression/World War II, the Civil War and the American Revolution.
“What will propel these events? As the saeculum turns, each of today’s generations will enter a new phase of life, producing a Crisis constellation of Boomer elders, midlife 13ers, young adult Millennials, and children from the new Silent Generation. As each archetype asserts its new social role, American society will reach its peak of potency. The natural order givers will be elder Prophets, the natural order takers young Heroes. The no-nonsense bosses will be midlife Nomads, the sensitive souls the child Artists. No archetypal constellation can match the gravitational of this one – nor its power to congeal the natural dynamic of human history into new civic purposes. And none can match its potential power to condense countless arguments, anxieties, cynicisms, and pessimisms into one apocalyptic storm.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
The mood of the country continues to blacken. A simmering anger boils beneath the surface of an everyday façade of normalcy. The middle class majority is being squeezed in a vice, with the rich powerful plutocrats on Wall Street and in Washington DC stealing their hard earned net worth through financial scams, the gutting of our industrial base and a tax system designed to benefit those who write the laws on one side and the parasitic willfully ignorant underclass that is sustained only through the extraction of taxes from the working middle class on the other side. Our society has become a hunger games tournament, with the few benefitting while the many scramble to survive. The stench of class warfare is in the air. The generational resentment and rage is palatable as the Millenial generation has taken on a trillion dollars of student loan debt at the behest of the Federal government, Wall Street and older generations, only to graduate into a jobless economy. The generational contract has been broken, as the older generations will not or cannot leave the workforce due to their own financial missteps. Younger generations are being denied entry level positions, even as the older generations expect them to fund their retirements and healthcare. This presidential election will only exacerbate the anger, disappointment, bitterness and fury among the populace, no matter who wins.
Prophets & Nomads
Can generational theory predict who will win the presidential election? Probably not, but based upon historical precedent, during times of Crisis the country usually turns to a Prophet generation leader who provides a new vision and summons the moral authority to lead. This leader may not have the right vision or have the backing of the entire population, but he is not afraid to take bold action. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was despised by many, but he boldly led the country during the last Crisis. Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 election with only 39.8% of the popular vote, but he unflinchingly did whatever he thought was necessary to achieve victory and preserve the union. Prophet leaders like Samuel Adams and Benjamin Franklin offered the sense of moral urgency required to sustain the American Revolution. Strauss & Howe give a historical perspective on Prophet generations.
“Prophet generations are born after a great war or other crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-crisis era, come of age as narcissistic young crusaders of a spiritual awakening, cultivate principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerge as wise elders guiding another historical crisis. By virtue of this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age passion and their principled elder stewardship. Their principle endowments are often in the domain of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists, summoners of human sacrifice, and wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform; later in life, most came to be revered more for their inspiring words than for their grand deeds.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Barack Obama was born in 1961. According to the Strauss & Howe generational distinctions, this makes him an early Gen-Xer. His life story matches that of the Nomad archetype. His chaotic early life, confused upbringing by an array of elders, frenetic alienated early adulthood as a community organizer, and his rise to power through his public speaking talent and pragmatic ability to achieve his agenda is a blueprint for a Nomad. Mitt Romney was born in 1947 and grew up during the American High. His childhood was idyllic and privileged. His moral Mormon youth as a missionary eventually devolved into his yuppie “greed is good” career at Bain Capital acquiring companies, making them more efficient (firing Americans & hiring Asians), and spinning them off, while siphoning millions in fees. He has tried to convince Americans to vote for him, based upon his business acumen and moral lifestyle, as the cure for what ails America. With the continued downward spiral of societal mood, record low trust in Congress and 60% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track, the odds should favor the Prophet candidate. The 40% of Americans who think the country is on the right track are a tribute to our awful government run public education system or are smoking crack.
The Barack Obama presidency has many similarities to the one-term presidencies of Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan. Both men were overwhelmed by rapidly deteriorating events, an inability to understand the true nature of the Crisis, and failure to inspire the American people to rally behind a common cause. Both men drifted off into obscurity and are overwhelmingly acknowledged as two of the least successful presidents. The men who succeeded them are ranked by historians at the top of the list, even though they are both despised by more libertarian minded citizens as proponents of big government solutions and control. Libertarians will not be happy with developments over the next fifteen years. This Crisis is an era in which America’s corrupt social order will be torn down and reconstructed from the ground as a reaction to the unsustainable financial pyramid scheme which is an existential threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority will revive, cultural manifestation will find a community resolution, and citizens will begin to associate themselves as adherents of a larger cluster.
Barack Obama has fallen short as a Crisis leader, just as Buchanan and Hoover fell short. Buchanan also tried to maintain the status quo and not address the key issues of the day – secession and slavery. His handling of the financial Panic of 1857 led to annual deficits that exceeded 13% of GDP during his entire presidency. His legacy is one of failure and hesitation. Hoover was a technocrat with an engineering background who failed to recognize the extent of the suffering by the American people during the early stages of the Great Depression. It is a false storyline that he did not attempt to use the power of the Federal government to address the economic crisis. Federal spending increased by over 20% during his term and he was running a deficit when Roosevelt assumed power. Hoover was an activist president who began the public works programs that FDR expanded and dramatically increased taxes on the rich and corporations in 1932.
Obama inherited a plunging economic situation and proceeded to make choices that will make this Crisis far worse than it needed to be. He has failed miserably in addressing the core elements of this Crisis that were foreseen by Strauss and Howe over a decade before the initial spark in 2008. Debt, civic decay, rising wealth inequality due to the rise of our plutocracy, and global disorder are the underlying basis for this Crisis. Obama’s response was to run record deficits driving the national debt skyward, failing to address the unfunded entitlement liabilities that loom on the horizon, bowing down before the Wall Street mobsters and paying their ransom demands, layering on more complexity and unfunded healthcare liabilities to an already teetering government system, and extending our policing the world foreign policy at a cost of $1 trillion per year. A Crisis requires a bold leader who makes tough choices and leads. Obama has proven to not be that leader. Based on historical precedent and the rapidly deteriorating mood of the country, it would be logical for the country to select Romney, a Prophet generation leader.
No Escape
“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
No matter who wins the election, there will be no turning back. It isn’t Morning in America anymore. It is more like Midnight in America on a bitterly cold dark February night as the gale force winds begin to gust, foretelling the approach of an epic winter blizzard. There are no easy solutions. The opportunity to alleviate the impact of this Crisis was during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and we made all the wrong choices. Now we will pay the price. An era of depression and violence will be ushered in by an economic calamity that will make 2008 look like a minor blip. The next president will still be presiding over a country divided 50%/50%, with little or no common ground on most of the key issues that must be confronted. But, as we’ve seen in previous Crisis periods, bold leadership and history making decisions did not require consensus or even majority support. Only 10% of the colonial population drove the American Revolution. Lincoln was despised by half the country and not exactly loved by everyone in the North. FDR’s popular support progressively declined during his four terms in office. It is the Fourth Turning events, not the nation, which elevates the person to the apex of power. The regeneracy of the nation will occur during the next presidential term.
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The Millenial generation is coming of age faced with the burdens of $1 trillion of student loan debt, a stagnant job market clogged by the Boomer generation that can’t afford to retire because they never got around to saving, ever increasing taxes to fund the promises made to their elders by politicians, and an unfunded entitlement liability of $100 trillion for healthcare and pension benefits they will never see. The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute. It will require courage, sacrifice, fortitude and a dramatic shift of our egocentric selfish culture to a culture of sustainability and caring about future generations. We’ve made many bad choices over the last few decades. Choices matter. These are the times that will try men’s souls. The choices we make as a nation over the next few years will determine whether this Fourth Turning ends in a renewal of our founding principles or tragedy. Glory or ruin – the choice is ours.
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The next stage of this Crisis is likely to be ignited by a downward spiral of societal trust caused by the next financial implosion, which is certain to occur. A world built upon debt, false promises, interconnected webs of deceitful derivatives, fiat currency backed only by the promises of lying politicians and captured central bankers, and a diminishing supply of easy to access natural resources, is hopelessly dependent upon the willful ignorance of the masses. As long as people want to be lied to rather than facing the truth, those in power can maintain the status quo. Once the jarring realization of reality overwhelms the propaganda and lies of the oligarchs, the battle for middle earth will begin. What will trigger the next phase of this Crisis? No one knows for sure, but based on the fault lines already evident, these are a possibility:
- The inevitable breakup of the European Union with the consequences of massive bank defaults in Europe triggering worldwide bank defaults as the interconnected trillions of derivatives are lit like a string of firecrackers.
- A sudden Greece like surge in interest rates on Japanese bonds results in a collapse of their debt ridden economic system, with reverberations throughout the world.
- The Middle East tinderbox explodes as Israel attacks Iran and the law of unintended consequences takes hold. Alliances and treaties would draw Turkey into war with Syria and Iran. Russia and China could side against the U.S. Iran and their vassals would unleash terrorist attacks and disruption of Middle Eastern oil would drive prices over $200 per barrel, crushing the American economy.
- A showdown on the debt ceiling and/or fiscal cliff results in a stock market crash, derailing the pitiful fledgling recovery created by Ben Bernanke’s QE to infinity measures.
- A tipping point is reached with regards to the amount of debt that can be accumulated by our Federal, State and Local governments. A cascade of defaults could lead to a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar and a surge in interest rates. The defaults and increased interest on the national debt could lead to mass depression or in a worst case scenario – hyperinflation.
- A large terrorist attack in one or more American cities would cause chaos, panic and fear, leading to more government control over our daily lives. This could trigger a counter response by those fed up with an overbearing government presence.
- A catastrophic natural disaster or series of natural disasters would reveal the fragile nature of our just in time economic system. A breakdown of our logistical and infrastructure systems would lead to chaos and mass hysteria as the citizens who believed their government leaders would keep them safe, secure, warm, and fed realized it was all a sham. Their leaders were in it for the power and riches, not looking out for the best interests of the common folk.
No one knows for sure what will trigger the next leg down during this Crisis, but I can guarantee you that things will not be getting better in the near future. Don’t believe the mainstream media or politicians who tell us life in the good old U.S. of A will be back to normal in the near future. And those who predict a long slow gentle decline of the American Empire that can be managed by the oligarchs are badly mistaken. That is not how things roll in a Fourth Turning. Transformative change, chaos, desperate measures, and total war will propel our nation through this cataclysmic saeculum and a positive outcome is not assured. An armed conflict – class war, sectional war, religious war, or war for oil – will be waged at some point and fought to the finish. Fourth Turning wars do not end inconclusively. Each Fourth Turning war has resulted in greater destruction and more horrendous numbers of human casualties. The trials and tribulations that await this nation over the next fifteen years will challenge every living generation to play their roles and bravely confront the tasks needed to reach a new High, just as their ancestors did.
“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
For those who doubt generational theory and believe history is a linear path of human progress, I would point to the last week of chaos, disarray, government dysfunction, and misery of those who didn’t prepare for Superstorm Sandy, as a prelude to the worst of this Crisis. The lack of preparation by government officials and citizens, death, destruction, panic, anger, helplessness and realization of how fragile our system has become is a perfect analogy to our preparation for this Fourth Turning. The brittleness of our infrastructure and lack of redundancy in our systems has left us vulnerable to any large storm. Building mansions yards from a dangerous unpredictable sea is akin to allowing Wall Street bankers to create interconnected financial derivatives which will ultimately result in a great worldwide flood that will obliterate billions of wealth. Going decades without upgrading our power grid, transportation systems, or storm protection is akin to allowing our unfunded entitlement liabilities to accumulate to such an extreme level that it will be impossible to honor and the coming storm will swamp those depending on those promises. The lack of foresight by citizens in having food, water, and backup sources of power and heat in case of an emergency is akin to the millions of people that have lived the good life in debt up to their eyeballs while never saving for a rainy day or their retirement. When the rainy day arrives they panic and demand to be saved by an inept bureaucratic government.
Winter has arrived. The gathering storm is about to strike. Are you prepared?
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
And these also stagger from wine and reel from beer: Priests and prophets stagger from beer and are befuddled with wine; they reel from beer, they stagger when seeing visions, they stumble when rendering decisions. All the tables are covered with vomit and there is not a spot without filth.
Isaiah 18:7-8
Don’t count on a prophet showing up to save us this time. The Boomers are a prophetic type, sure, but only in that they cannot stop their self-righteous preaching. They, in aggregate, are such failures to the archetype that they cannot effectively lead. Isaiah understood when he saw it, and nobody listened to him. Why? There were still prophets, don’t phrophets, first and foremost, discern truth?
The prophets were all so gourged on good times that they couldn’t do their job properly. And as a result, Israel fell. It’s the same thing here. The world is about to fall. Europe will fall, China will fall, the US will fall and all for the same reason: population trends drive markets, if your population growth isn’t highly upwards, your economic growth can’t be. It’s why the Dark Ages started. Population growth stagnated. Just once, a population in an area in the world stagnated, and the entire Roman economy was so crushed, the Dark Ages began and human innovation stalled for nearly 1500 years. That was just population stagnation. By the 2070’s, we may have the first ever global population decline.
The economy cannot keep expanding, we don’t have the demographics to support it. And that’s not intrinsically a bad thing in and of itself. However, trying to find a prophetic group of boomers in the mix of all the Good Times, Global Market Expansion failures? Good luck. The closest thing we have to a prophet is Nuriel Roubini, and no elected official will follow Dr. Doom. Why? Because all our leaders are elected and elected officials jobs are to support policies that make the greatest number of people happy. Note, that doesn’t mean supporting the policies that are right, it means supporting the ones that make people happy.
That means that policies that pass debt down on later generations will win against making smart investments in your society. It means continuing growth mandatory policies when your economy can’t possibly continue to grow. It means a society in failure, that will fail for a long, long time because of a generation who’d rather throw a hissy fit over abortion laws and entitlement reforms that only affect 1-10% of the population at a time. A generation of loser culture warriors, deadbeat dads and soccer moms who rely on the rest of the world to sacrifice because they can neither fathom giving up their sacred cows nor their own comfort.
And while you can find decent boomers out there individually, in aggregate they don’t make a difference, because what matters is the lowest common denominator, and the Lowest Common Denominator Boomer fails at anything other than repping for “Me, Me, Me” policies.
So no, there will be no prophet for this seculum. Hopefully the next one will offer people made of sterner, more intellectually astute stuff.
Here, take some information with you, Bukaki1:
With about 35 percent of its current 101,123 population being Filipino, Daly City is one of the largest cities in the county and has the highest concentration of Filipino and Filipino-Americans of any American midsized city in the United States, author Benito Vergara said.
Vergara studied Daly City’s Filipino community for nearly four years before publishing “Pinoy Capital: the Filipino Nation in Daly City” in 2009.
Read more at the San Francisco Examiner: http://www.sfexaminer.com/local/bay-area/2011/03/after-100-years-daly-city-reflects-history-diversity#ixzz2BPiULBte
Also, as for citizenship of my happy neighbors and friends:
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the 2007 American Community Survey, identified approximately 3.1 million persons as “Filipino alone or in any combination.” The census also found that about 80% of the Filipino-American community are United States citizens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Filipino_Americans
Here’s an article to remind folks that going overseas to live or work is…. well… an experience:
http://mabuhaycity.com/forums/going-back-philippines/14919-american-living-philippines-real-truth-about-life-philippines.html
So much for the “Ignorant” storyline.
“the fact that we have passed the 7 BILLION HUMANS level and another BILLION will be here in just a few short years and then another BILLION aftger that in eve shorter years (when this planet maybe could have put up with about 3.5 BILLION of responsible human beings), do none of you project that and see how things ahead can only be chaotic unless we all wake up and understand that unless we begin to work together, and fast, there are going to be no recoveries that you all are hoping for”
—-Reality
Look, Reality, you made a lot of good points in your comments, but I’m puzzled by your use of “we” in “unless we begin to work together” in the above quote. If you mean “we” as in the 7 billion people on the planet, it ain’t going to happen. Ever. If, however, you mean “we” as in the people of the U.S. and possibly Canada, then there’s an excellent fighting chance we’ll survive any planetary firestorm in the future.
Look, I’m an ardent nationalist. We started this country with the best system of government ever devised in history. True, it’s all fucked up today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t reinvent our constitutional republic to its bedrock principles and stick to them. We can and probably will when TSHTF.
Next, let’s look at the natural resource concerns voiced by several people above, particularly Christopher Harrison and most recently, GJH, who erroneously claims that “only a few % of US land area (lower 48) hasn’t been turned to production for the human economy, rather than supporting natural ecosystems.”
Bull fucking shit, GJH. What fucking natural ecosystems aren’t we supporting which are truly critical to this nation’s survival? Name one in today’s political environment of the EcoTerrorists represented by the likes of the Sierra Club, the EPA, and the Department of Interior. Name just one.
As for the “few %” of the Lower 48 that hasn’t been turned to production for the human economy, more bullshit from GJH. 90% of Nevada is federal property. In fact, a majority of the land in many western states is “owned” by the federal government. We don’t KNOW what’s on much of that land, and, even if we did, rest assured that GJH and his fellow travellers in Earth First will make sure we never get to the massive uranium deposits in the Canyonlands National Park or “near” (50 miles south) of the Grand Canyon.
The greatest sources of fresh water and food on Earth are the U.S. and Canada, by a fucking country mile. Add to that the enormous carbon-based energy resources of these two countries, and “we” have the basics (food, energy, and water) to sustain our current version of modern civilization for a long, long time.
Let’s dig deeper. Ingredients for inorganic and organic fertilizers? Covered. Green energy? Covered. Critical minerals such as rare earth, iron ore, aluminum, and copper? Covered. Lumber? Covered. Sophisticated transportation infrastructure? Covered. And so on.
Here’s my bottom line. T4T will be bad, but it doesn’t need to be that bad for “us,” meaning North Americans in the U.S. and Canada. We have more than what it takes to muddle through. And I’d include Mexico if they ever decide to stop hating Americans, which they are taught to do from birth. Jesus, you lost the War of 1848. Get over it.
Did strauss and how ever explain how , inspite of centuries of “turnings”. The vatican , the london banker swine and all their assorted child rapocrat friends remain unscathed ? Or is that way beyond their dogmatic simplistic pseudo intellectual wankery ?
Looks like we’ve attracted nutjob conspiracy nitwits like Dark Angel to our site. This is what happens when you allow the dregs of Zero Hedge to enter.
SSS POTUS 2016
Jim, Are you the same guy who used to publish the Burning Platform a couple of years ago? The blog I remember then was totally, shockingly irreverent to the point of being humorous and entertaining. The blog now is, well, scholarly, which I also very much appreciate. Why the dramatic change in style?
Saw “Fourth Turning” in the summary on main page & knew it was Quinn. I’ve seen woodpeckers go to town on trees with less velocity & determination than Quinn does with his continual leg humping of this book.
We get it. You love this goddamn book. NASA can see your shimmering boner from space every time you open the book or sniff the friggin binding.
I recognize I’m not contributing anything to this discussion. I’ll go flog myself now.
EDIT – I’ll try to contribute. Prepping is important; but being singularly obsessed with impending chaos and doom is unhealthy. Prep, but try to enjoy life when & where you can. Walk away from it for a bit. Go to a local watering hole & strike up a conversation with a stranger. Play with your kids/grandkids. Screw your spouse and/or mistress in new & exciting ways. But FFS, prepping doesn’t need to = zombie apocalypse obsession.
Off to flog myself now…
Grifter
Why don’t you regale us with your 9/11 conspiracy bullshit. I love those stories. Flogging your chicken seems to be your best talent.
“The (TBP) blog I remember then was totally, shockingly irreverent to the point of being humorous and entertaining. The blog now is, well, scholarly, which I also very much appreciate. Why the dramatic change in style?”
—-JohnBoy @ Admin
“Dick Stump ….. The drivel you just typed makes me understand why the country is in such peril. If gibberish was literature, you’d win a Nobel prize.”
—-Admin @ Richard Stump in the thread above
I’m just taking a wild-ass guess here, JohnBoy, but I think there’s been zero change in style here on TBP, and Admin hasn’t lost his ability for being irreverant, humorous, and entertaining. His only weakness is to submit to my insufferable, but irrefutable, wisdom.
I have read the Fourth Turning and think this article was well written and on point, I was browsing through the comments and could not help but laugh at some of them. The author was not trying to plug Romney as someone stated, you have to understand/read the book to realize that I guess. The Prophet always leads during the Fourth Turning and Obama was not born in the prophet generation, if Romney does not win that means that in 2016 the President will be someone from the Prophet generation. The cycles of history have proven time and again that this is the case, if you read the book you know that the authors go back throughout American history thru the 1400’s before the immigrants migrated here and this cycle always repeats itself. The cycle itself is not unique to Americans either, it was observed in all cultures both current and ancient. The book is powerful and changed my entire outlook on current events. Highly recommend the book to everyone.
TJ, I should point out that the president isn’t necessarily the only position in society one could lead from. You could, for instance, see a group of the president’s cabinet essentially run the show, while the Gen X pragmatist keeps the choke chain on them. You could also see a scenario where the government fails to do anything, but a wealthy boomer decides he wants to leave a real legacy, and eschews the traditional corporate heirarchy with a new co-op style of management which changes the game entirely.
Also, in the revolutionary war seculum, the only major prophet player was Franklin. Washington was a Nomad. The rest of them? Civics. And in that scenario, The prophetic types weren’t the major players, they just kinda spurred it on, and it was the nomads and really more the civics that ran the show.
Now, do I think it’s likely we’ll see something like that this go round? Highly unlikely. The Boomers really fail to be prophets, Gen Xers lack the creativity to come up with new solutions and I really get the feeling they just don’t have the fortitude to make their own decisions and have those be the difficult decisions that need to be made, and Millennials are too well behaved to really be willing to break off and do their own things. Gen X can’t handle the bad publicity, the Millenials can’t even properly break up with someone for fear of the stigma of being the bad guy, and the Boomers can’t stop gorging themselves like locusts.
TJ: A great many read the title and not the article….
I think one of the short generation youtube videos or…. if Thinker gets around to it…. some sort of cliffnote 4th T might help…. Then again, I think the term “Prophet” sends people into kneejerk spasms.
So it goes.
@Admin – Who cares about that shit these days? Not when you have THE REPUBLICNS USING HAARP TO CTRL THE WEATHER AND SMASH NY AND COST DEAR LEADR VOTSE!!!!!!AAAWWWWWWMMMMMGGGGGGGG
/aneurysm/
Not much chance of a prophet assuming control today. Maybe in 2016 we will get what we deserve.
PC/Admin:
I peeked at zh….
This article sailed right over their teeny heads.
What can you do? The meat of the theory is all but proven in the commentary.
Time to re-read some Vonnegut. I’ve been thinking that he wrote as one quite concious of the madness and silliness around him. Next stop: Sirens Of Titan.
Is it that inconceivable that cycles are understood and predictable enough that entities could “front-run” a turning?
Not too shabby response to this article:
36,000 reads on ZH with 500 comments – about 5 comments actually related to the article
29,300 visitors to TBP – just short of the Obesity article record
Mac Slavo just posted it on the SHTFplan website.
Charles Hugh Smith sent me an email saying how much he liked the article
Even our good friend Mr. Kunstler sent me an email calling it a solid piece.
Hi Jim…just wanted to say you knocked this one out of the park and I’m very glad you wrote about the Fourth Turning.
I’m a few chapters into this book right now, so your timing couldn’t have been better for me. As you can imagine at this point in the book I’m pretty amazed by what I’m reading so far. It’s crazy these guys wrote this in 1997!
But even though I haven’t finished the book yet, from what I’ve read so far I think you have applied your obviously very good understanding of it to your post perfectly.
I already knew I was going to recommend this book to everyone I know, but along with my recommendation I’m definitely going to be emailing everyone your post today so that they can get a better idea of what I’ve been trying to tell them about for so long.
Anyways…just wanted to leave a comment about it and say thanks and great job!
I’m a reader that came over from Turd’s TFMetalsReport site long ago when you did one of his early podcasts. ZeroHedge (as you know I’m sure) posted this earlier and that’s how I originally spotted it this morning.
But I have also posted it on Turd’s current blog post today so that everyone in Turdville would also get a chance to read it. Hope that’s cool w/ you.
Here’s the link: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/232679#comment-232679
Anyways…hope you and Turd do another podcast soon. Thanks again and take care.
Be proud, it was a great piece.
Arius, said “Mr. Quinn, if the country re-elects nomad Obama over the potential prophet Romney, doesn’t that mean the coming crisis will need to be much worse before the prophet appears on the scene?”
Administrator, responded “If the country re-elects Obama maybe some Prophet figure arises outside of politics and Washington DC to lead an opposition. Maybe Obama gets assassinated. Maybe a General attempts a coup. The actual events are unknowable, but it is certain that things will not improve over the next fifteen or so years.”
Mr Quinn, it makes sense to me that Nomad Obama cannot be the Prophet figure to come. He is a conflicted type that mirrors the current conflict and can only exacerbate the current conflict. He carries all the historical thinking at the foundation of the conflict. He cannot transcend it or lead beyond it.
The Prophet type is not himself conflicted; he represents, or carries within himself the future beyond the current conflict.
Therefore if Obama is re-elected the message sent is that the conflict will get much, much worse because it has to before it can be transcended by the Prophet.
Arius
Now I’m really depressed. There is no scenario that I can make bleak enough that someone on TBP can’t make bleaker.
SSS – “What fucking natural ecosystems aren’t we supporting which are truly critical to this nation’s survival?”
Since I can’t even tell what you’re saying here, and it doesn’t appear relevant to what I said, I won’t debate it. I’m just glad you got your daily dose of keyboard bluster in, right after your geritol.
The issues I brought up were 2. 1) the ‘sixth global extinction even’, this one anthropogenic. 2) Are there natural limits?
R.E. #1, I mentioned the US as an example, but the issue is a global one. Let’s speak a little more rigorously: “Nearly 40% of potential terrestrial net primary productivity is used directly, co-opted, or foregone because of human activities” (Vitousek, 1997). What has that figure grown to in the meantime? You think that might cause a few extinctions? Oh wait, Ehrlich was on the paper so maybe that disqualifies it for you. Our bang-up intelligence guy at work.
#2, “GJH and his fellow travellers in Earth First will make sure we never get to the massive uranium deposits”. Interesting. Just last week I came out challenging someone to make the case for not extracting tar sands. I thought admin was kidding you about Alzheimers. Guess not.
Since I agree with you that it’s not likely that fucking will stop, nor that resource exploitation will be curtailed or planned rationally (and I don’t trust any power that might try to plan it), then what is the basis of our disagreement on point #2? Appears you think any suggestion that there might be natural limits is idiocy. More dazzling intelligence from spook in residence.
No doubt your moderate intelligence combined with ‘ardent nationalism’ made you useful to the CIA. They need guys working for them who don’t even realize they’re playing for the wrong team.
SSS – While I’m at it
I commented a while back that you tend to focus on the irrelevant. Two examples:
1) Your point about $ vs EROEI was perfectly correct, but irrelevant. Of course a company talks in dollars. To say that oil will always cost enough to pull it out of the ground is a tautology. The relevant issue, however, is if oil will remain a viable source of *energy*. As EROEI decreases, oil will become increasingly expensive in $ terms, increasingly uneconomic to use as energy. Energy is its main use, and that will change our whole society.
I concede new technologies like shale oil may change the current trend toward more expensive energy. Porter Stansberry thinks so. We’ll see.
2) You came out swinging about your Che Guevara head pic, calling him a thug. Maybe he was, maybe not, I don’t know. I do know that it’s ironic for a former CIA guy to call out a major figure in the Cuban revolution for thuggery, given your former employer has done nothing but thuggery with regard to Cuba.
There, that should be enough to inspire you for another day’s worth of bluster.
@Kepi – I enjoyed your post. I disagree with your assessments of GenX and Millennials though. I
First off, I think that as the BBs decline GenX will step up to fill the leadership void. Nomad Generations always do. Nomads get repressed and ignored in youth, but as TSHTF during their peak adult years, and the Propets above them go elderly/dying, Nomads step up with a no-nonsense, survivalist attitude to end the Crisis.
Our role will not be in ‘creative solutions’ – you’re right that we don’t have those. We arent the ‘creative ones’ – Prophet generations have the creativity to dream of a million different ways to change the old order and destroy it. Prophets are the ‘creative changers’ that create a complex web of problems that choke the nation. We are a ‘reactive generation’ and behave more like a generational Occam’s Razor. We Nomads look at the complex web of bullshit that is choking everyone to death, and we react by slicing through it to simply stop the choking and survive. All our solutions and actions will be driven by a philosophy of pragmatism and ‘what works’, not any sort of creative utopia-dreaming bullshit of ‘what would be awesome’. And GenX is NOT afraid of ‘bad press’, we got labeled ‘bad, slacker, loser, etc’ before we got a chance to show the world anything. We have no reputation to maintain or protect, we were never the golden child like the prophets were as kids. We are the underdogs of history who step in and surprise everybody at the clutch moment. One thing delaying us from stepping up is GenX is so tiny – barely over 1/2 the size of the Prophets before us. So, they really clog the system with sheer numbers we can’t match at this point. In the near future, the Boomers will age out and we will have to step up and start Occam’s Razoring this complex cobweb of failure, throwing out everything that doesnt work. We’ll slice it up, and reduce it to something survivable.
As for Millennials, they are mostly still kids. They are good kids too, and good kids try to obey. Right now, Boomers are in charge and Millennials are trying to comply – but they are getting fucked. They are a huge wave of youthful naivity and energy that has no obvious purpose right now. The only ‘big things’ Boomers are allowing them to do is go fight stupid wars in the Middle East or go to college, go into debt and end up unemployed. These Millennials are doing the only things they have as options, but they are a big (slightly bigger than Boomers gen), enthusiastic, energetic generation that needs an outlet for their energy and numbers. When this Crisis comes to a head, and GenX starts their pragmatic slash & burn of the bullshit, you will see Millennials roar out of the starting gates eagerly – they are just itching to have a constructive purpose, which Boomers have fail to give them. They’ll be the much needed manpower, numbers, and youthful vitality that middle aged GenX doesn’t have. And while GenX will focus on what is practical and survival, the Millennials will start dreaming of something better. A lot of slashing and burning and cleanup will have to be done first, before the way is cleared enough for the Millennials to be able to envision a new order – but eventually they will and they will work together to lay the foundation.
Think the BRA is better than the Philipines. Take a look at Detroit. Heck even Mexico City looks good compared to the BRA.
Flash –
It looks like you have a challenge. You have mixed your religious views on what it means to be a Christian with politics by intimating that Mormon beliefs are cultish and Romney is just another member of that cult. Romney has his political faults for sure and yes he is wealthy and has never been concerned where his next meal was or is coming from. He belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Mormon is but a nickname For the book of Mormon Which he believes is another book of scripture Given to the inhabitants of North America, The Indians. Both the Bible and the book of Mormon teach that Jesus is the Christ our Savior. That he died on the cross for our sins, for every sin of every human being ever to live on this earth. As a private citizen, Romney has served other people for most of his life Both as a bishop (pastor) and as a leader over other Bishops in his church, without pay. He has led the biblical Christian life. Nothing cultish about that.
When people get to know Romney beyond what the main stream media portrays, they see him as a moral, Christian man.
I suggest you follow the decision of Billy Graham who heads one of the largest and respected Christian ministries world wide. They have recently removed the Mormon faith off their cult list.
Anyone who studies the Book of Mormon and gets to know a faithful practicing Mormon (we are known as Saints – Latter Day Saints) and the their Christian beliefs and practices will decide as Billy Graham decided that their views were incorrect. As the bible says, By their fruits (how they live and treat others) ye shall know them.
Great article. Admin, you are one of my heroes, you woke up this white boy.
Marvy, much of what Joseph Smiths religion comes from is the Egyptian Book of The Dead, badly misinterpreted at that.
As for the msm…I have no use of their views.
Admin, there’s also a couple points to consider, first being that the years may have been off a tad. The Crisis may very well have started in 2001/2002 with the 9/11 aftermath as there you have high national unity, high compliance and a boomer leadership. Strauss and Howe predicted a crisis between 2005 and 2015 if memory serves me right, and a deviance of 4 years couldn’t be entirely off, especially considering the amount of bleed the turnings and the generations themselves seem to have.
Next point, we could still be in the unravelling. I mean, I doubt it, because it all looks so crisis oriented, but considering all that has been done to the US in the past 40 years by delaying adulthood with high rates of college participation, having a high cultural acceptance of both contreception and abortion and having a prophetic generation so large, it could do screwy things with the cycle just by messing with the proportions of each generation.
Further on that, remember how the Civil War cycle just kinda skipped a step? That seems pretty aweful, but if it hadn’t, the US would have been late unravelling/early crisis to fight World War II. So things seem to line up for a reason.
Next point, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperialist Japan, and Communist USSR all had the same cycle, but all our outcomes were pretty different. And Spain had the same and they were pretty much irrelevant. So was most of South America, or Mongolia or Southern Africa.
Also, the prophetic change really doesn’t seem to be relevant as much at the beginning of the crisis as much as the beginning of the end. They’re not there to comfort us in the beginnings of the crisis, they’re there to help guide us out.
Lastly, we could all be wrong. Obama could be the guy. The cycle doesn’t guarantee that it’s intellectually or philisophically correct, just that people adopt the narrative that it is. WWII didn’t resolve any of the underlying economic problems that created the great depression. But they beat the Nazis and that’s really all the time and energy they had for their crisis. But you don’t say that a whole lot, bbecause the generation that beats the Nazis gets a free pass. It’s a narrative issue, not an accurate one.
That he died on the cross for our sins -Marv
Replace ‘for’ with ‘because’ and you will see things differently.
I have read the book and while the theory is certainly interesting, it is not definitive. There is a fundamental flaw in the logic behind the idea of The Fourth Turning and that is that we are now at a time in history that is totally unique. The internet has already affected every aspect of human relations for most of the 6 billion people on this planet and it has done so in less than a generation. This new communication medium is a complete game changer. Why? Simply because in ages past generations tended not to communicate much with each other. In other words, one generation didn’t share much in common with the next. Different culture, different music, different slang, even different jobs. Now there is no such separation, at least in the united states. I see people of all ages with common interests and common ideals. I credit the internet for lowering these generational boundaries. Yes there are still differences between generations but those differences are quickly disappearing as time goes on.
Actually the generational divide would be the strongest in the last 80 years. Noninteractive mass media created the largest possible generational divide (and is still contributing to it as the majority of Boomers do not participate in the dominant cultural narratives of the Millennials (video games)). People in the 1770’s had a lot more in common with each other than now. They didn’t have their woodstock or their Lallapoolooza or their burning man. When top hats came in only the oldest and crustiest stuck with the tricorner. Now I’m the only one left with a top hat.
The internet has done far more to expose and divide us by exposing us to a greater number of alternatives. You couldn’t keep an all punk rock format on any radio station, even in it’s hay day. Thanks to pandora, I can create different stations according to the subgenre and distinct style and I never have to hear anything else.
If all I wanted to do for the rest of my life was look at pictures of ball bearings, I could. Before the internet, did you really know what a furry was? Now that you do will you take your kids to an amusement park? Exactly.
The dull thud you just heard was the coffin lid closing on what was the American Republican experiment. The last chance for capitalism ended tonight when over half the populace decided they would rather have their fortunes decided by others. Guess what, the others are giving up and you worthless slobs will soon be on your own. Welcome to the Soviet Union. Good luck with that.
Say Goodnight Gracie – We should hold the funeral at Brittingham’s
The internet is like a new wineskin and digital gold (fully backed , weighted currency) is like new wine. We are now in the process of weaning out the structural “greed factor” at the apex that serves to give leverage to the wicked and the power trippers. Create a rounder world !
Gold is money and now that its weight fluctuates and can trade in real-time, we are on the edge of a new real-time gold-as-money paradigm. Real-time valuations are key, which is why the FIXED peg ($35/oz) had to be severed as it was back in 1971.
Instant global liquidity has now integrated with debt-free store of value …. a great wedding.
This Fourth Turning certainly just became more interesting. Each time, there is a bitterly-fought election and a divided nation. The outcome of the election is based on societal mood and propels the nation into its destiny — for better or worse. Although I think Obama’s message, “give me four more years to get it right” resonated better with people than his “forward” one, it definitely shows that we’re in transition to becoming a far different country than we’ve ever been.
So, what now? With no Prophet elected, with regard to the 4th Turning, is it just continuation of a downward slide until a Prophet emerges thru the smoking ruins in 2016?
I fear for our country. God be with us. Please.
Thinker: That is very true. There is a tone in comments in other threads, and frankly it is a historical rhyme…
One thing for certain is the transformation process. Was the country the same after every turning?
No!
Not at all!
The direction is the same…. The world is smaller (inverse to the scope of each conflict by no coincidence). Globalization. It is no tin foil concept and is quite official in many unambiguous ways. Kepi had conclusions about the communications aspect, and I’m sure many 4th turning buffs cracked a smile and thought of steam ships, telegraphs and radio… all things that connect and transmute. There is more… so much more.
It has taken on a tone, for certain, Mister Thinker. It’s not the first time business people felt villainized and unappreciated. It’s not the first time people were aghast at the election…. where the divide is like a crack between countrymen, zigzagging through an old edifice.
Unfortunately, the fissure is but a small indication of a larger faultline spanning the proverbial globe…
The show will go on, and it is high time to follow your gut feelings and rely on those never ceasing primal instincts…. athese are the times when the
These are the times when they are of the greatest value…
(Lol, that’s what the last sentence was supposed to read)
Mr Quinn, with the re-election of Obama we are entering the worst case scenario mentioned in my earlier postings.
Answer:
No. A Prophet will not assume command. Yet.
“Now I’m really depressed. There is no scenario that I can make bleak enough that someone on TBP can’t make bleaker”-JimQ
This is the downside of being Doom Lite. Embrace the DOOM. If you go Full Doom you can only be depressed by Uber Doomers predicting an Extinction Level Event. 🙂
RE
So RE,
Are you suggesting that an Exctinction Level Event is unlikely?
“Are you suggesting that an Exctinction Level Event is unlikely?”-CI
Not at all. There is plenty of good evidence that we are on the road to an ELE. I publish Guy MacPherson on the Diner whenever he writes an Uber Doom article justifying this POV.
Guy is very well versed in this stuff on the academic level, so it can be quite Depressing even for a Full Doomer like me to try to find some HOPE and then try to deconstruct his arguments.
Nevertheless even if it IS an ELE, WTF wants to be the FIRST to buy their Ticket to the Great Beyond? You wanna Volunteer for that one? LOL.
The steadily declining Ocean pH is the most powerful argument for an ELE. At the current very STEADY acidification rates, it is no more than 30-40 years before all shell based ocean life is insupportable. However, it is not until we get a crash of the Phytoplankton that we get a Permian style ELE, and there is not real good evidence on just how low pH has to GO here to crash the Phytoplankton. IMHO, even if the current rate of decline is continued, I don’t think it crashes for a century or so.
In the meantime, I work on the assumption this is similar to a Toba Bottleneck event, and that a FEW can make it through the Zero Point.
RE
http://doomsteaddiner.org
This is clueless. It’s so slow. The generational stuff is pre-computer. Hello, you can’t possibly apply pre-computer, you can’t possibly apply pre-geometric progression change to the future now.
Also, this article is macro-economically devoid.
There won’t be any rhythmic history. What’s happening is a quantum leap.
Gee, this article is about being stuck repeating the same old, same old.
Why don’t you wake up and realize that the voluntary giving and sharing all economy is the one and only future that will last all the way to Heaven?
You’re preaching worldly bull.
You have it all wrong. You’re into capitalism. Capitalism is dung. It always has been. That’s why even leaning toward it has caused the current nightmare.
If you think that turning to some Hayekian vision of no government will cut it, you’re living in your imagination that will not come true.
Let me let you in on an open secret. Gold won’t do anything for those who kiss up to Mammon other then assuring their place in Hell.
Your selfishness, your self-centeredness, will kill you! The sooner you stop thinking about yourself and start thinking about others, the sooner we’ll all be living in the New Earth. If you can’t accept it, if you cling to your self-centered ways, you’ll not be there.
Oh boy. Tom Usher arrives on the scene to spout gibberish about new paradigms and a technological revolution. Hysterical.
Tom Bought Pets.com in 2000.
Tom bought three houses in 2005 with plans to flip them and make a fortune.
I love when my articles bring out the nutjobs.
Thanks for giving me a good laugh Tommy Boy.
Hey Tommy Boy
Tell us all about your real liberal christian church. We love religious nutjobs on TBP.
No prophet. Just more profiteering.
Feeling mean and hung over this morning. Four more years of socialists at the wheel. Trying to figure out the best plan for that brand of collapse/decline.
I was bound to feel like shit today, knowing that one of two bad choices was as good as it was gonna get. Give me some Advil and coffee and I’ll get on with it.
Admin, how about an open post for predictions?
GOOD NEWS. Get off the notion that the USD is a currency and you will all be fine. That is not to say that the dollar is not a currency but recognize when and where it acts as a currency. It only acts as a currency within the debt-money paradigm, a stop gap measure on route to a real-time (floating) gold-as-money paradigm (market driven) where the dollar acts as a real-time measure and a servant to gold money and to economic activity. This has been destined to be its greatest goal all along , given the time to enter the “fullness” of the information age.
If you reverse engineer real-time gold-as-money, you will see the FED’s footprints all over it and Bretton Woods will make much more sense to you. Keep in mind that the dollar’s role as a real-time measure for commodities can be considered to be intellectual property and an international gateway for global payments made in gold/silver based digital currencies (fully backed by weight).
Something must act as a bridge of transition from the debt based currency paradigm to the real-time gold-as-money paradigm. That something is the real-time measure of “USD/oz” as a tool. This tool had to be developed over time. That included centralization of the dollar and then severance of the $35/oz fixed peg to set gold free.
You cannot pour new wine into old wineskins.
The prophet is in the wilderness. The stimulus to bring about a real-time gold-as-money practice is up to the people, the grass roots of society within an organic market. The elite cannot do this for fear of a sudden dollar crash. Rate of change must be governed by the market and cannot be by fiat. The elite are now relegated to the “carrying of the stick” as a “necessary evil” within “the script”. Follow the script. Do not look for a top-down solution. It’s not their role now, but ours.
Colma, exactly right. It’s beginning to take more shape, now.
And yes, I do chuckle when I read, “this time is different because of technology!”
Thinker
The clueless morons who have no sense of history are hysterical.
Do you think the steam engine, cotton gin, telegraph, railroads, repeating arms, and hundreds of other inventions between the American Revolution and the Civil War stopped the next Crisis?
Do you think the discovery of oil in 1859, the industrial revolution, airplanes, automobiles, electricity, telephones, and even better arms between the Civil War and the Depression stopped the next Crisis?
Do you think the invention of the TV, computer, malls, financial derivatives, iPods, and the internet since WWII will stop the next Crisis?
The inability for people to think critically in this country is mind boggling.
Very sad to see all the ‘other’ voters or NON-voters. Sure you make a statement – mostly to yourself – but you have helped re-elect Obama. And YES there is a difference between him and Romney! Sad that you must think of yourself more than what may be the good of the country. Our biggest fight for the future will be to make certain we get a couple of reasonable, smart Supreme Court justices chosen. Without that, our future is becoming even more dangerous. it’s now possible that Obama could select as many as 3 Supremes!! That should be decades of potentially disaterous social and political upheaval.
Stupid actions for stupid reasons.
Wilson
Are you the soccer ball that Tom Hanks talked to?
How is Justice Roberts working out for you?
Do you believe corporations are people?
Stupid is as stupid does. Thanks for playing.
“is it just continuation of a downward slide until a Prophet emerges thru the smoking ruins in 2016?”
Hey, there’s a thought, maybe Gary Johnson (born 1953) could be the emerging Prophet then, after both Republocrat parties are completely discredited.
Wishful thinking, I know.
SAH: You are right. Baby Boomers are responsible for the fatal destruction of Western civilization. And I say this as a Baby Boomer. All of our friends are Baby Boomers that blame every problem on someone else, usually by demonizing the political party they hate, like they think hate and sound bites is thinking. Compared to our parents that suffered through the Depression we are sorely lacking, and we thought we fix anything, and look how it is ending. We are entering the Fourth Turning (I maintain that it started with the 911 attacks) and even with the thunderbolts of criticism that I can hurl at Baby Boomers, from within it will eventually emerge the Fourth Turning Prophet. But that is in the future, the country just re-elected Obama that cannot take us beyond the current conflict (see my other comments). We are headed straight into a debt super cycle collapse. We need to prepare to survive and protect ourselves and family. The course is set, in the hands of fate.
Sober stuff after last nights lottery of the nations goods….but a necessary slap of a cold towel…thanks for the history lesson on cycles…Time to do the hard part, breaking away from the comfort zone and even harder is convincing the maternal part of the family that a hard wind is gonna blow….
Jim
Welcome to TBP, where reality is guaranteed to depress you.
Great article. I agree that my generation (BB) holds the majority of the responsibility (born 1950). I grew up when the big “cultural divide” started, and as one here said, the people around me started tearing down the traditional trappings. I did participate in some of the “activities”, but to a minor extent. I was never a leftie, even though it was so cool and hip to be one. I had long hair, played in a pysch band, but still believed in getting married, staying that way, working hard, etc. As I had kids, I tried to raise them in the way I was raised for the most part, as far as values, and was increasingly looked at as some kind of odd ball. I would not let my kids watch R movies at 10 and 12, etc. I never thought I would be such a minority. We have been together, married, for 40 years and still get along great. People actually don’t like us because of that. I saw this spoiled, self serving, corrupt, end coming. Everyone went from hippies to Gordon Geckko. I now look around and am pissed off that I am going to get fucked when I did my part and kept my end up.
To those that think having your shit together and being self sustaining, you better be on the top of a very steep mountain with only a rope ladder to get up there, or about a million rounds of 5.56 or 7.62. You are going to get run over by the very hippies that were so loving, so long ago. Just look at all the tolerance the left has today. Tolerance of you thinking like them, and them taking all you got. As I guy I used to work with used to say, The innocent must suffer with the guilty. Unless you can breathe underwater, you don’t have a chance when the USS USA goes down.
RE-
Scary stuff man. It’s safe to say, IMO, that EVEs are normal. An increase in ocean acidity will kill lots, but not everything. Single celled organisms are extremely good at adapting to things like pH. It’s like the problem with pesticides and antibiotics; you’ll kill most but invariably organisms adapt and return to “carrying capacity” population levels. Honestly though, the population has grown under artificial means, something is going to correct it. That’s my opinion at least.
And to whatever guy posted that altruistic rant: are you in an internet cafe with a 10 year old computer wearing a burlap sack for clothing with plastic bottle flipflops? If not, well, perhaps you should get to selling your stuff and start thinking about others. Capitalism (we aren’t and haven’t been a capitalist country for decades) made it possible for poor people to have dvd players and modern housing (you probably think they have a right to more). Before then, it was mud huts and stanky bush.