Guest Post by
A Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.
– From February’s post: Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump
The latest Quinnipiac University Survey on the 2016 U.S. Presidential election is absolutely fascinating, and presents some very bad news for team Clinton, as well as all the clueless pundits who say Trump can’t win.
The major takeaway is that Trump and Clinton are locked in a total dead heat in the three key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is remarkable considering all the heinous things Trump said on his way to the GOP nomination, and the fact that he’s barely started to “sell” himself to the general electorate, which is his primary skill in life.
Several things we already knew were confirmed by the survey, such as the fact that Clinton dominates Trump when it comes to women and minorities. Trump likewise dominates when it comes to white men. The only interesting aspect is how huge the spreads are within these categories.
The truly fascinating takeaway from the survey can be found in the details. The key demographics Clinton needs to do well in (youth and independents) are areas in which she struggles mightily in these swing states. In contrast, Bernie Sanders dominates Trump in those two categories, proving once again that he’s by far the stronger general election candidate.
Here’s some of what we learned from Quinnipiac:
In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
The presidential matchups show:
- Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
- Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;
- Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”
Strange. I could’ve sworn all the super smart beltway experts told us Trump would get slaughtered by Clinton.
Florida
Independent voters are divided 39 – 39 percent. White voters go Republican 52 – 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 – 20 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton 49 – 27 percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump 50 – 37 percent.
Clinton and Trump each get a negative 37 – 57 percent favorability rating.
Florida is the one state where Clinton dominates the youth vote, but Sanders would do much, much better. Also see how poorly she does amongst independents, while Sanders wins Florida independents handily.
Ohio
The age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton.
Independent voters go 40 percent for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton.
Clinton gets a negative 34 – 62 percent favorability, compared to Trump’s negative 36 – 57 percent.
Ohio shows you what happens when Clinton struggles with the youth vote. Trump wins.
Once again we see Trump also doing very well with independents against Hillary. Against Sanders, Trumps loses independents by 10 points.
Here are the detailed tables for Ohio:
Pennsylvania
Clinton edges Trump 43 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while Trump has a slim 49 – 42 percent lead among voters over 65 years old.
Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, 37 – 58 percent for her and 39 – 55 percent for him.
In Pennsylvania, we see Clinton does better with the youth vote, but not good enough. If it were Sanders running, he would destroy Trump 56% to 38% in that demographic and win the state easily.
Moreover look at the tables to see how poorly Clinton does amongst independents in Pennsylvania. She loses by 43% to 36% to Trump, while Sanders takes independents 48% to 39%. This is a huge differential.
Here are the detailed tables for Pennsylvania:
Bottom line. Clinton can’t beat Trump without either huge margins amongst the youth vote, or a strong showing with independents. Sanders is unquestionably stronger within both demographics, yet the Democratic Party insists on nominating Clinton.
In case you’re wondering why I’m so obsessed with independents, it’s because 43% of the public identifies as such. As I explained in the recent post, Could Trump Beat Clinton in New York? Yes.
I believe the key to 2016 will be independents, which we learned earlier this year make up a massive 43% if the American public. Yes, it’s true that many of these “independents” lean toward one party or the other, but I’d argue Democratic-leaning independents are probably not big Hillary Rodham Clinton fans.
Never forget this chart when thinking about the general:
Most pundits will say the 2016 election is Hillary’s to lose. I see it the other way. Given the justified angst amongst the populace, and Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to read an audience and sell himself to it, I actually think this election is the Donald’s to lose.
For related articles, see:
Trump Leads Clinton 41% to 39% in Latest Rasmussen Survey
Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump
Could Trump Beat Clinton in New York? Yes.
Hillary Clinton’s Full Speech to Goldman Sachs (Satire)
Camille Paglia – “Enough with the Hillary Cult”
The Real Reason Hillary Clinton Refuses to Release Her Wall Street Transcripts
“We’re Going to War” – Oliver Stone Opines on the Dangerous Extremism of Neocon Hillary Clinton
In Liberty,
Michael Krieger
http://theweek.com/articles/623410/dear-hillary
Dear Hillary,
I have to admit, you have me worried. And for more than just the usual reasons.
In the week since it became clear you would be facing Donald Trump in the general election, I’ve sensed giddy delight coming from your camp.
Believe me, I get it.
Trump has incredibly high unfavorable ratings. Women hate him, as do Hispanic voters. The very things that made him attractive to the Republican base — the anger, the fear-mongering, the misogyny — could drive millions of undecided voters into your outstretched, welcoming arms.
And all of this comes on top of fundamentals that give a substantial edge to the Democrat in any presidential contest these days. From 1992 to 2012, the Democratic nominee always won 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that are worth a combined 242 electoral votes — just 28 short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Over the same six elections, Republicans have consistently won 13 states with a total of 102 electoral votes. That means a generic GOP candidate has a much narrower path to victory than a generic Democrat. Add in The Donald’s distinctive negatives, and it probably looks like you’ll be facing a cakewalk in the fall.
Don’t believe it.
For starters, I hate to break it to you, but you’re not especially popular either. Sure, Trump’s unfavorables are higher than yours — but yours are pretty damn high! And it’s not like those numbers are likely to move very much. You’ve been a fixture on the political scene for close to a quarter century now. And those young people who know the least about you have been Bernie Sanders’ most passionate supporters in the primaries. That might not prove fatal in the general election, but it’s not exactly good either.
And then there’s Trump.
With 10 contests left to go in the primaries, Trump has already surpassed Mitt Romney’s vote total for the entire 2012 primary season by roughly 700,000 votes. And he did it against a more sharply divided field, and while winning a smaller portion of overall votes cast (though that number will narrow between now and the end of the primary season on June 7). Republicans are energized, with turnout up sharply from four years ago. This means that the baseline assumptions that have held since 1992 may not pertain this time around.
In every single one of those elections, the Republican candidate has run on pretty much the same cluster of issues: tax cuts, especially for the wealthy; muscular internationalism; social conservatism; free trade. That’s also the matrix of positions Democrats of your generation are conditioned to respond to and attack.
But Trump is different. He will hit you from the populist far right on immigration and free trade. He will hit you from the far left on the Iraq war, Libya, and Syria. He will directly challenge you on economic policy by supporting an increase in the minimum wage and higher taxes for the wealthy.
And he will relentlessly, mercilessly attack you (and your husband) personally.
How will you respond to the onslaught? I sure hope the answer is that you have no idea yet. Because if you think the answer is obvious or simple, you’re deluding yourself.
It’s certainly going to take more than selling merchandise emblazoned with utterly lame slogans like “Dangerous Donald” and “America Is Already Great.” Isn’t it a tenet of progressivism that America isn’t already great? That our national greatness is always a work in progress, a goal achieved only in the fullness of time? If conservatives are prone to nostalgia, the left is inspired by eschatological hopes for the future. Barack Obama, with his frequent references to the arc of history bending toward justice, certainly knows this, and I’m sure you do, too. After these feeble gestures, I can’t say the same about DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. You might need to have a talk with her.
No Democrat has ever run against a candidate like Trump. He overturns every settled ideological and temperamental expectation of normal politics. He will go after you with a ferocity we’ve never seen before, and the assault will be unremitting — yes, on the stump, in TV and radio ads, and in the debates, but also in 24/7 cable news coverage and an endless stream of infectiously quotable tweets, half of them capped by what’s become this election cycle’s all-purpose three-letter dismissal: Sad!
So don’t be cocky. Fire anyone on your staff who tells you this is going to be easy.
Then tell the staffers who remain that they need to be nimble, thinking on their feet and outside of the proverbial box. Yes, the Democrats have very real demographic advantages, and that will help — but not as much as the usual consultants and data crunchers want to assume.
Don’t try to define Trump, whether by labeling him “dangerous” or anything else. He’s a master of rhetorical jujitsu, instantly turning criticisms and insults into honorifics. Let Trump define himself. Of course he’ll try to define you, too — as “Crooked Hillary,” among other things — but your self-definition needs to prevail over the one he tries to pin on you. If it doesn’t, you’ll lose.
Most crucially, you need to show voters by your words and actions that you’re everything Trump is not: sober, smart, informed, sensible, level-headed, presidential. Yes, a lot of Americans at all points on the spectrum are angry these days. But are they so angry that when presented with a clear and obvious choice a plurality of them will actually opt for the candidate who is manifestly less sober, less smart, less informed, less sensible, less level-headed, and less presidential?
I don’t think they will.
If I’m wrong, your bid for the presidency is doomed — and so, perhaps, is the country.
Sincerely yours,
A concerned anti-Republican
I wish Sanders would get the Democrat nomination.
He would be much easier to defeat than Hillary.
Best hope to b ear Hillary is that her past or her health or some combination of both will catch up with her. Other than that she will be a formidable opponent even for Trump and easily defeat anyone else if he is somehow forced out.
Every now and then, when I have the urge to feel steam coming out of my ears, Ill peruse the lefty rags online, mostly the comment sections, and a lot of the bernie fans who are pledging to not vote for hillary are saying that they plan on voting for trump, thinking that he will be such a disaster that it will guarantee that fauxcahontas will win in 2020 and they will retake both the house and senate while being in charge for the redistricting of that year as well. They thing that giving it to trump will allow them to implement their socialist paradise after 4 years.
Obviously Im not endorsing or agreeing with all that, although it is possible. Im just pointing out that a lot of democrats will not vote for clinton. Ive long said she WILL be our next president, but now Im not so sure.
Anon….I will take the opposite side of Your coin – The Bern is a more formidable foe to beat, but he won’t get the nomination.
Wait until Trump gets rolling on Hilde; it won’t be pretty.
Doesn’t really matter who wins the election. We are still doomed because of compound interest according to a math teacher I saw on cable news. Can’t remember his name but he could count. He said we will have no other choice but to default on this DEBT.( federal debt and national entitlements ).So according to the math we are still facing a severe financial crisis even if TRUMP wins.
Well, you can take it to the bank that The People’s Republic of Ohio will go all in for Hitlery Clinton just as the rat bastards went big for Oreo in the last two elections. If you want to build a wall around some thing, build it around fukkin Ohio and let them starve to death.
Most survey’s are propaganda by other means.
Damn Roy, where have you been? Long time no hear from you.
We are still doomed because of compound interest according to a math teacher I saw on cable news. Can’t remember his name but he could count. ~beebs
Yew r fkin jeenyus