Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning. Per the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more. Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:
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Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.
Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph. Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.
Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida. Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the “highest windspeed forecasts I’ve ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting.”
These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting. #Irma is another retiree candidate. pic.twitter.com/e6nMsp1myY
— MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) August 31, 2017
In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: “Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind”
The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.
Up to a 30% chance via the 12Z Calibrated ECMWF EPS for a landfalling Major Hurricane somewhere along the eastern seaboard #Irma pic.twitter.com/nUmZkPGJpY
— MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) September 1, 2017
Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the “most likely” path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.
What! Are you telling me that the exact path of Irma is unknown – that there are several choices for the next full week.
How can this be. Look, we have Al Gore and his followers of Climate Astrology telling us in 100 years or 250 years or ….that the seas will boil from the heat (and that they will also rise to ‘unprecedented’ heights); there will be billions of Climate refugees, hurricanes, tornadoes, and Locusts will plague the earth.
Was this explained in an Ultra Spiritual Life episode?
It’ll be interesting to see how things play out if this one hits Houston too.
The really amazing thing is how fast this is happening after Trump withdrew from the Paris accord.
Surely it’s related.
God’s aiming it straight at Houston because they elected a lesbian mayor. We got rid of our lesbian police chief here in Minneapolis. We don’t need any fucken hurricanes.
Houston is a Black Mayor run sanctuary city.
While I have a great deal of sympathy for the people there, I can’t help but think of that alongside my sympathy.
FWIW, God didn’t aim it at anyone, the Bible teaches us that it rains on both the just and the unjust.
Epic floods are a part of the end time prophecies, along with other intense natural disasters. Everyone will be caught up in them no matter whether they are righteous or unrighteous.
Who needs your sympathy, Anonymous?
I’m watching the weather channel right now and hurricane Irma is turning toward Florida .It is expected to pick up alot more strength the next couple of days. Possibly becoming a 3 or 4 before landfall.
There’s not going to be a US landfall, unless something changes dramatically. The Bermuda High, of which these things revolve around is very stable right now. The storm will curl up and pass east of the Bahamas, well east of Florida. The only way it could hit the US would be if the high shifted to the west, as what happened with Hurricane Andrew. That is a very rare occurrence.
Starfcker, I don’t know if you’re a meteorologist or if you just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but I’m praying that you are correct. 2004 is still fresh in my mind. May the weather Gods, Odin and Boreas spare Florida.
I’m pretty good at this, nkit. My dad was in the NOAA hurricane hunters for 45 years. I just looked up the computer models, when they converge that’s a good thing. They all have it doing precisely what I think it’s going to do. These assholes just want to scare people and sell some plywood for Home Depot. storm_11 (800×600)
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11
And its a rare occurrence when a depression turns into a Cat. 4 hurricane that stays on land dumping trillions of gallons of rain in virtually the same spot for day, then comes off land again, travels up the coast, comes on land again, dumps trillions more gallons of rain and sets records in virtually every city it passes through. “Rare” is all about our current pathetically tiny snapshot of geological history. I too hope you are right for everyone’s sake, but this isn’t a game of chances, it is a game of meteorological effects…..and whatever crap the government weather-manipulators might be up to.
Our neighbor Irma is quite worried that her name will forever be associated with a horrible disaster.
She’s never worried that her name is associated with a chippie?
If it hits Haiti I doubt that even Irma will be able to wash the Clinton Stench from that land!
if you have any interest at all in the real science behind hurricanes and forecasting I recommend this site that I found last year….
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/
It is run by a PhD candidate at Florida State University publishing his own forecasts in conjunction with comparing them to the official forecasts.
His last post was Thursday night, but listening to it you will get a understanding of how he approaches things.
I pay attention to these things more intently because I have recently found myself in Florida more often than not.
Here’s the loop: