Robots are not to blame for the loss of millions of U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Millions of Americans who lost manufacturing jobs during the 2000s have long ”known” China was to blame, not robots. And many helped elect Donald Trump as president because of his insistence that China was at fault.
Evidently many academics who’ve studied the issue are finally drawing the same conclusion.
For years economists have viewed the increased role of automation in the computer age as the chief culprit for some 6 million lost jobs from 1999 to 2010 — one-third of all U.S. manufacturing employment. Firms adopted new technologies to boost production, the thinking goes, and put workers out of the job in the process. Plants could make more stuff with fewer people.
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In the past several years fresh thinking by economists such as David Autor of MIT has challenged that view. The latest research to poke holes in the theory of automation-is-to-blame is from Susan Houseman of the Upjohn Institute.
Academic research tends to be dry and complicated, but Houseman’s findings boil down to this: The government for decades has vastly overestimated the growth of productivity in the American manufacturing sector. It’s been growing no faster, really, than the rest of the economy.
What that means is, the adoption of technology is not the chief reason why millions of working-class Americans lost their jobs in a vast region stretching from the mouth of the Mississippi river to the shores of the Great Lakes. Nor was it inevitable.
Autor and now Houseman contend the introduction of China into the global trading system is root cause of the job losses.
Put another way, President Bill Clinton and political leaders who succeeded him accepted the risk that the U.S. would suffer short-term economic harm from opening the U.S. to Chinese exports in hopes of long-run gains of a more stable China.
No longer needing to worry about U.S. tariffs, the Chinese took full advantage. Low Chinese wages and a cheap Chinese currency CNYUSD, -0.0805% — at a time when the dollar DXY, +0.08% was strong — gave China several huge advantages. Companies shuttered operations in the U.S., moved to China and eventually set up research hubs overseas in another blow to the America’s economic leadership.
The cost to the U.S. is still being tallied up.
For one thing, it left countless families devastated and deprived many areas in the middle of the country of a good fountain of economic opportunity. Manufacturing jobs have long been a great source of economic mobility for less educated Americans. Those who lost their jobs had to fall back on menial, less well-paying work.
Most recently, some of the states that lost the most from the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector paved the way for the 2016 election of Trump and the huge political upheaval in Washington that is still ongoing. Trump better understood what blue-collar workers were thinking and who they blamed.
Economists are not thrilled with Trump’s protectionist-leaning approach to trade and not every expert accepts the idea that China is mostly to blame for problems in the so-called Rust Belt. Yet the growing recognition of the tradeoffs of free trade might compel American lawmaker to craft policies more suited to helping American workers, Autor and others argue.
Some other headlines brought to you by Captain Obvious:
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I call BS on blaming China.
The finger points to America’s International Corporations and CONgress for letting them do it (this includes intellectual property rights that the Corp’s handed to the Chinese).
Bullshit.
Kissinger, Nixon, Congress and Corporate America are at fault. Communist China was merely willing.
Detente my ass.
Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism
Another disastrous policy by the infamous Bil Clinton to add to: 1) the gutting of Glass-Steagall legislation that prevented wild speculation by banks on Wall Street; and 2) changing the methodology for calculating inflation, from a basket-of-goods to a system of fraud. Admitting China into the WTO and allowing Chinese companies to export their products into the US duty free gutted US manufacturing and high-paying middle class jobs. Repealing Glass-Steagall caused the financialization of the US economy and the transfer of wealth from honest workers and savers to a parasitic ruling (or should I say thieving) class. And rigging the inflation rate at 1-2% when the true rate is 8-10% allowed the gangsters in charge or the Deep State to suppress interest rates, rob the saving of honest American workers and lower wages while blowing bubbles that enriched the thieves and crooks on Wall Street, at the Federal Reserve and in Congress. In the long line of traitors to be hung, Bill and the Hildabeast should be at the head of the line.
All in the quest for higher margins and greed…filthy lucre…Rothschild’s…The Fed… erosion of USD purchasing power / value…Corporate greed… executive compensation and Wall St greed…union greed…corruption and waste…too many line workers with shitty work ethics… skyrocketing costs of materials, healthcare, and energy…government waste, taxes, regulations and corruption…food costs….vicious cycle.
Too many piglets, and not enough teats, Abe said.
Buy local when possible.
Patronize a noble, hard working farmer and other small business Craftsmen if you have any disposable dough to spend. They contribute to the local community, not destroy it.
Way to go BP !! Nothing like putting Kike propaganda with Kike media ? Tell me who put this up isnt soo damn clueless .. or part of (((them)))) ? I got 2 year olds that know they accuse of what they do themselves.. Ya know bitchin about the 6 million scam and yet have no problems with 52 murdered today in Palestine?
China took advantage of the whores of the American Circle Jerk from Wall Street to K-Street to Capitol Street . This is not to diminish honest hard working prostitutes who provide an honest service for an agreed upon price . You don’t get that from American companies if you are an employee anymore . You get a bankrupted retirement package that evaporated when you go to collect it . Who made big money from Chinese investments , Mitch McConnell , well not him but his wife from her daddies company . The largest shipping and ship building companies owned by her Chinese Nationalist father . The senators little women knocks down 15 mill and daddy ships us military supplies around the world along with commercial goods on Chi Com ships filled with chi com made stuff !
We who worked in heavy American industry knew the line we were being feed regarding automation was PURE CORPORATE AND GOVERNMENT BULL SHIT !
The automation created as many jobs as it took if it were all still produced in America by Americans and no it was not the hourly wage . The wage argument is an urban myth used to bolster the big lie conspired by the corporate entities the government reps owned by the corporations and the media that answers to the corporate god .
We all knew we were being lied to and cheated in a GIANT SUCKING SOUND ! If you get inside the 495 beltway around Washington DC you can still hear the echo of American industrial might being hollowed out for a short term gain and a national unrecoverable loss !
Remember this when those minions come to confiscate your property so the likes of Maxine Waters and her ilk get a federal pension check . Make no mistake the badge wearing minions have their excuse lined up “Sorry man , just doing my job” ! Fucking you so I get paid , it’s the law !
“Millions of Americans who lost manufacturing jobs during the 2000s have long ”known” China was to blame, not robots. And many helped elect Donald Trump as president because of his insistence that China was at fault. Evidently many academics who’ve studied the issue are finally drawing the same conclusion.” ————- from the ridiculous article
Fortunately, myself and other long timers have read LLPOH’S EXCELLENT COMMENTARY about this topic over the years and, as such, we know that this article is pretty much Total Bullshit.
Thanks Stuck. My analysis of this pile of shit is below. That article is a total fabrication. I went to the actual source docs. It is a disgrace what was written. The authors said no such things, or acknowledged there is no data to support their (her) position. Her – Houseman’s – position is entirely based on an assumption not supported by any data whatsoever that GDP numbers are off, and she makes ZERO claims at all about how many jobs were lost to China. Zero. At least Artur does make a claim that 1/4 of the jobs were exported, which I find generally accurate.
Re its claim that “ many academics”support the contention, Houseman makes it clear the consensus is against her. She is very careful not to claim any damn thing at al lest she become a laughing stock, as there is no data whatsoever supporting her wild guess.
What a load of shit article. Much of what it posts is a lie. And it misinterprets what the academics it references have actually found, and quotes no figures at all. Amazing.
First, it claims MIT academic Artur supports its claims. In fact, Artur does not. What Artur says is that China “may have curbed American ingenuity”. May? May have curbed ingenuity? Well, that sure is definitive. Digging further, Artur claims around 1/4 of the job losses are a result of China, which is roughly my estimate. A big number, of course, but Artur acknowledges that most jobs, the vast majority in fact, were lost to automation.
Looking at the Houseman research, and reading her paper, she says some interesting things. One thing she said is this: “It is difficult to parse out the effects of various factors on manufacturing employment, and there are no credible estimates of the total contribution that trade and the broader forces of globalization make to manufacturing’s employment decline. “ Wow. There are no credible estimates whatsoever. Amazing, isn’t it?
Her entire position is based on the assumption that manufacturing GDP has been overstated. By making that assumption, and she stands alone in the academic community with it, she claims therefore that manufacturing automation and improvements in fact did not occur, and that the losses were trade related. But she has to hedge her comments by saying no proof for her position exists, and that the academic consensus is otherwise, and is entirely against her.
So, Artur claims 1/4 of the mfg job losses are from imports, and Houseman makes no claims whatsoever – none! – with respect to how many losses were from imports, and claims there is no research supporting her position, and acknowledges she stands alone in this, and bases all her assumptions on her belief the accepted mfg stats are wrong, but then does say that the job losses due to imports are substantial. That is astonishing in its lack of definitiveness, and is a hedge of position so extreme I cannot believe she put it out there.
Wow, now there is some really convincing research. In fact, it is not research at all. It is a wild guess based on a wild guess that the GDP figures are off. “Ms Houseman, how many jobs were lost to China?” “Well, there is no data whatsoever supporting this, so I am just going to say a lot!” Unbelieveable.
If there was ever a bigger slanted steaming pile of shit article posted on TBP I cannot remember it.
I just knew this article was tailor made for you, lol.
Z – absolutely. How these fucks can post such a slanted pile of shit is beyond me. Fake news! Especially seeing the source docs are easy to find.
I knew Llpoh would blow a gasket. That’s why I posted it.
Three thumbs down on LLPOH’S correct analysis?
Three pigs. Three morans. Three assholes. Three total dumbshits. Three dweebs who will burn in hell. Three Diseased Donkey Dick lickers. Three who should never show their stoopid faces here again. You get the idea …..
China just took advantage of opportunity provided by US government and business. Plain and simple. We have only our so called leaders to blame.
The load of shit is blaming China ! When the Congress gets in bed with corporate America and picks winners and losers forsaking the American citizen and the American economy for short term gains to the dismantling of American industry and the infrastructure that tax base supports . That’s the reason pension plans are bankrupt and it is not getting better . The ultimate is taxing you out of you property and that’s already underway again for a short term gain . Another kick the can move !
China is not to blame for lost jobs….the Americans who allowed it are.
Bullshit, how is China responsible for lost American jobs, when it was the decision of corporate America, and the politicians who serve them.Let’s not try to confuse people on this issue. Mr Trump can not and will not bring back manufacturing jobs to America.He may have a very minute wish to do so but he is so compromised ( economically and politically) that he does not have the initiative to proceed in that direction.China did what the they could to ensure that their economy would thrive, can you blame them?