Guest Post by Jim Kunstler
Welcome to the world where things don’t add up. For instance, some people did some things to the Saudi Arabian oil refinery at Abqaiq over the weekend. Like, sent over a salvo of cruise missiles and armed drone aircraft to blow it up. They did a pretty good job of disabling the works. It is Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing facility, and for now, perhaps months, a fair amount of the world’s oil supply will be cut off. President Trump said “[we] are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!” Exclamation mark his.
How many times the past few years has our government declared that “we have the finest intelligence services in the world.” Very well, then, why are we waiting for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to tell us who fired all that stuff into Abqaiq? Whoever did it, it was unquestionably an act of war. And, of course, what are we going to do about it? (And what will some people do about it?)
Let’s face it: the USA has had a hard-on for Iran for forty years, ever since they overthrew their shah, invaded the US embassy in Tehran, and took fifty-two American diplomats and staff hostage for 444 days. On the other hand, the Arabians and Iranians have had a mutual hard-on for centuries, long before the Saud family was in charge of things, and back when Iran was known as Persia, a land of genies, fragrant spices, and a glorious antiquity (while Arabia was a wasteland of sand populated by nomads and their camels).
The beef was formerly just about which brand of Islam would prevail, Sunni or Shia. Lately (the past fifty years) it has been more about the politics of oil and hegemony over the Middle East. Since the US invaded Iraq and busted up the joint, the threat has existed that Iran would take over Iraq, with its majority Shia population, especially the oil-rich Basra region at the head of the Persian Gulf. The presence of Israel greatly complicates things, since Iran has a hard-on for that nation, too, and for Jews especially, often expressed in the most belligerent and opprobrious terms, such as “wiping Israel off the map.” No ambiguity there. The catch being that Israel has the capability of turning Iran into an ashtray.
The world has been waiting for a major war in the Middle east for decades, and it might have one by close of business today. Or perhaps some people will do nothing. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen supposedly claimed responsibility for the attack. That’s rich. As if that rag-tag outfit has a whole bunch of million-dollar missiles and the knowledge and capacity to launch them successfully, not to mention the satellite guidance mojo. A correspondent suggests that the missiles were fired from a pro-Iranian military base in Iraq, with the Houthis brought in on flying carpets to push the launch buttons.
President Trump is trumpeting America’s “energy independence,” meaning whatever happens over there won’t affect us. Well, none of that is true. We still import millions of barrels of oil a day, though much less from Saudi Arabia than before 2008. The shale oil “miracle” is hitting the skids these days. Shale oil production has gone flat, the rig-count is down, companies are going bankrupt, and financing for the debt-dependent operations is dwindling since the producers have demonstrated that they can’t make a profit at it. They’re trapped in the quandary of diminishing returns, frontloading production, while failing to overcome steep decline curves in wells that only produce for a couple of years.
It’s also the case that shale oil is ultra-light crude, containing little heavier distillates such as diesel and aviation fuel (basically kerosene). Alas, American refineries were all built before shale oil came along. They were designed to crack heavier oil and can’t handle the lighter shale. The “majors” don’t want to invest their remaining capital in new refineries, and the many smaller companies don’t have the ability. So, this makes necessary a high volume of oil swapping around the world. Without diesel and aviation fuel, US trucking and commercial aviation has a big problem, meaning the US economy has a big problem.
With the new crisis in the Middle East, benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil is up from around $55-a-barrel to just over $60 at the market open (European Brent crude is just above $70). That’s a pop, but not a spectacular one, considering that a whole lot more damage might ensue in the days ahead. China, Korea, and Japan stand to lose bigly if the players in the Middle East really go at it and bust up each other’s assets. If that happens, the world will never be the same. You can kiss the global economy goodbye for good. Let’s hope some people don’t do something.
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Saudi refinery attack. Another possible / likely source considering the timing, and the surgical precision of the hits, as seen on the photos. Just saying: http://www.321gold.com/edito…/moriarty/moriarty091619.html
Predictable, especially from 22:30 on…
.22, I’m begging you to use a much shorter name. Long names don’t wrap. Instead they go way past the edge of the article and fucks up the view on mobile devices. If you’re trying to make some kind of political statement in your name, I don’t think anyone is paying attention.
Please use a much shorter name. Please.
Absolutely spot on!!
Apparently Pompeo the Evangelical Christian Psychopath is blaming Iran for the attack. Must be the C.I.A. , better known as Criminals In Action or sometimes the Cocaine Import Agency gave him the skinny on the Evildoers in lickety split fashion. It’s all about the Petrodollar Benjamins and who has got the bigger dick at this point.
Here’s my view from the brink. I got interviewed by Sam Mitchell of Collapse Chronicles. TBP gets a shout out as I recount the history of the founding of the Doomstead Diner. 🙂
RE
Thanks for the heads up!
RE, how many dead people do you see this time?
Btw, fuckasheema is dumping waste into the ocean again.
I specified the Dead Person Tally in the interview.
RE
I thought you were dead.
Now … that’s funny!!!
Reports of my Death have been greatly exaggerated. 😀
RE
RE,
I’m glad to hear that. But evidently, I’m the resident softy here on TBP.
We will toughen you up eventually. You are much smarter than you were two years ago. Now we just have to thicken your hide up a bit.
How many times the past few years has our government declared that “we have the finest intelligence services in the world.”
The united States imports oil from Canada, Mexico and it also use to import oil from Venezuela. I am not sure if the uS gets any oil from there now. I don’t think the uS gets any oil from the Sauds
Iranians don’t hate Jewskis. The hate the red headed stepchild called Israel. Those who say they are Jews but are not.
The Iranian Jooze have no desire to leave Iran. Typical MSM using a bit of truth to spread bigger lies.
A look at the production cost per Bbl of oil might give a better idea of who profits. Fracking requires lots of cheap Fiat loans or higher prices or both. I wonder what the cost is for Genie Oil in the Golan or off Cyprus. Huge discoveries of shale in S. Central Argentina are interesting now that we have our puppet installed.
Just sayin.
mr baggs,
yer wey two cynical,sir–
on a serious note,are jews in iran on an equal footing w/muslims?
Jews only leave a country when they are less equal, not more equal.
Am I too cynical or are you too gullible?
Resurrection time!! An oldie but goodie …
****************** STUCKY QUESTION OF THE DAY ****************
Q: IF Iran really is behind the bombing of the Saudi oil field ….. should we commence bombing them?
Yes = Up
Down = No
Me?
IF they did it …. and that “if” MUST be provable beyond any shadow of a doubt …. then “FUCK YES!!”, retaliation is in order. Isolationism can only go so far before it stretches to the breaking point. Bomb them long and hard! What a terrific opportunity to destroy all their nuke sites.
The Iranians have no air force. Their “navy” is a pathetic joke. Their vaunted Revolutionary Guard is undermanned and their equipment is old and outdated. Their economy is already in a shambles. Don’t you see?? This is EXACTLY the kind of country we can kick the shit out of. With both Saudi and Israeli defense forces also kicking in … we can probably destroy Iran in a month, or less.
We should NOT let this opportunity pass us by. Dahum … if only John Bolton were still around.
Bush claimed he would be reelected because he was a ‘war-president’. If the economy is tanking and you are up for reelection, it’s time to start a war somewhere. The narrative is that it came from Iranian soil, it doesn’t say it was fired by Iran. Hmm. Did we fire from just inside the Iran border?
Video footage is starting to trickle in that shows a different narrative.
It looks like all the refinery structures fell into their own footprints at free-fall speed! Also, several nomad tents nearby collapsed … even though nothing hit them!!! Definitely starting to look like a false-flag incident.
Every ship Docked in Doha and under sail in Persian Gulf would be in peril from the SS-N-22 Sunburn Missiles that are hiding in Mountains on the Iranian side of Gulf.
They can be launched from
Planes,
Trains
and Automobiles
and of small attack boats..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=Lb3sHr8ptnM
And what will be considered proof, some politician or bureaucrat gets up in front of congress (of course now, wars no longer need congressional approval) and swishes around some shit in a bottle that looks like washing powder?
Or how about some photoshopped mobile weapons labs?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/jun/15/iraq
1. Videos. You can’t argue with videos.
2. Satellite photos. The gold standard for truth.
3. Tucker Carlson. When Tucker speaks, I listen.
1. Ever heard of “deep fakes”?
2. Ever heard of photoshop?
3. Tucker reports what the government tells him to report, they all do. Ever heard of the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act?
Unless you are referring to Dolly Parton’s deep fake titties … then, no.
—–
Once.
—–
?
Never
Stop trolling me, man!! Or, are you some kind of conspiracy nut??
I gotta know if you saw the beef tongue?
Well I fed it to the chickens but decided I could eat a tongue just not this one. It was ooooogly when pressure canned.
So…did you see?
Oh, the chickens are it all . And I have two new layers today. Little phantom eggs from the “spring chicks.”
Coincidence? Or was it the ? ?
Good tongue makes the hens lay!
No, I didn’t see it.
I did make mine though. The supermarket didn’t have adult beef tongue. They did have calf tongue. I prepared it according to the simple recipe. It was once of the tastiest pieces of meat I have ever eaten!!!
Gotta run (to the rehab center) … have a good evening!
Do you have Google, Idiot?
Please don’t bring up Dollie’s luscious golden globes.
Given “their” track record of lies and deception for the last 60 years, how exactly do you propose that “they” prove Iran did it?
Just like Iraq, winning the war is the easy part. Keeping the peace becomes the bigger problem and we have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that we SUCK at nation building.
Did I say we should be involved with “nation building” in Iran? No, I did not!!
I specifically indicated nation DESTROYING. We bomb all their nuke sites, bridges, telecommunications, and dams. Shock & Awe, part deux. Then we just sit back and watch them starve.
Stuck – you troll at Jedi level. Not quite as good as Trump, who I think rates Yoda level, but you are a good padawan to the great master.
Not much of an air force or navy but enough ship killing missiles to force our carriers to stay at least 2,000 km away. Remember the big Scud hunts from the Gulf War days? Just how many did we find and destroy?
Stucky, I used to work with a guy named Bob Horan. We used to sing that song to him using his name. He hated it.
Poor Barbara Ann.
A thoughtful essay. Hard as it may be for Mr K., it’s past time to recognize that Israel is the principal source of dangerous trouble in the Middle East. Best policy for the USA, oil dilemma notwithstanding, is to let Israel fend for itself and prepare for a number of resets that will make no one happy for an indeterminate period of time but will eventually be beneficial to the West.
Monty almost nailed it, this is is another false flag by ((them)) for 2 reasons:
1. netanyahhoo is in a campaign to save his neck, if he does not win the next election, he gets indicted for the criminal that he is, and having a dangerous neighborhood is always beneficial to the incumbent, who can make claims of being able to “lead in this dangerous time” etc.
2. everyone who trades oil, will profit from rising oil prices, the US included, do not think for a minute that the Saudis will not benefit from allowing their old antiquated refineries to be shut down, so they can be rebuilt to more modern specs, and this time, surrounded by newer missile detection (can anyone say “export license for iron dome”)
The Saudis/US/Israeli have been playing mind games in the ME since Obama rolled out ISIS in brand new brown painted Toyota pickups, paid for by Saudis, armed by Hillary (had to take out Ambr. Stevens in Lybia as he did not want to play ball), and using intel and other assistance from Israel.
If I’m not mistaken I read an article in the MSM last week about the declassification of documents that showed Saudi involvement in the 9/11 attacks, not Iran.
So we’re going to enter into a war against a country that has not attacked us for attacking a country that did?
Hard to keep up with the narrative these days.
Why would Saudi Arabia attack the US? Secretly, no less.
That’s easy, ask Weinstein.
http://mileswmathis.com/wein.pdf
Umm, you’ve watched what has transpired over the last 18 years haven’t you? That’s why.
Question:
Kunstler states:
I have a very good friend who is in the diesel industry out of Houston. His company sends him to Midland/Odessa about once to month to call on the industry out there. According to my friend, it’s assholes-over-elbows busy out there. Just for grins, I looked up land prices in the area. A little small patch of desert scrub will cost you a pretty penny. You could buy a farm in Arkansas for the kind of money they’re asking for a little bit of space to grow sagebrush.
As far as I know, from reading Kunstler every Monday and Friday here on TBP for years now, he’s been stating, more-or-less the same thing that I quoted above. But I never see any sources or any documentation beyond the claim. But my buddy is making a damn good living calling on the industry players out there who are actually involved in the work.
Can anybody help me to reconcile the two views? What am I overlooking?
I know a number of roughnecks and the reports are the same: assholes and elbows. New Mexico as well.
They’re hurting for rig welders out in that oil patch.
Reconcile what views? I don’t see a conflict in the views.
My brother-in-law is in the oil supply business in western OK & TX and he is busier than a one-armed paper hanger.
Hey Tim, this is the best explanation I’ve found s far. This Wolf dude is smart.
From American Petroleum Institute
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1173607976969678848
The U.S. is the leading natural gas and oil producer providing “good jobs and strong growth in our communities” while protecting our economy from foreign manipulation and bolstering our national security.
vote harder,
just so you know,we ain’t supposed to re post wolf richter here–
he gets bent w/admin when we do–
since i regularly see him featured on other blogs,i’d guess that either it’s the $ or the joo comments on this blog,but that’s me talking,not admin–
?? I don’t understand. What’s wrong with Wolf Richter’s take on economics? I find him to be very informative. Much better than the financial presstitutes of MSM.
i don’t know,ask admin–
i sent him a wolf story once that i thought would be a good stand alone post & he replied back that wolf did not want his stories on the site–
my guess is that either he tries to charge 4 reposts or he doesn’t like the jew crap that gets posted here,as wolf richter sounds jewish to me–
whichever it is,i respect it & just go to his site & scan his headlines & if interesting i click,if not i pass it by–
do you read the comments there?i rarely do so but the 1 or 2 x i did unit 472 commented there,is he still commenting there?
Bolton bailed before the bombs blew up the place.
Curious isn’t it.
Hmmm…
And still very few question how we could suddenly turn up the heat on Iran. It takes months for the great logistical setup of a no-surprise “surprise” war. If they attack, they’ve had the war on the books for at least 6 months.
Congress doesn’t vote to declare war any more for a reason. By the time half of those dipshits even know what happened, the war is weeks old, they’re crying foul about the insignificance of the Imperial Senate, and they retroactively approve it.
We are batshit crazy. When’s the last time a journalist, in front of the world, asked a politician repeatedly how long they have been shuffling equipment pieces on the chess board to make this possible? And following up, wouldn’t this be considered a covert declaration of war, just getting prepped for it? Were not the Framers clear about appropriations for Army v. Navy?
Iran sponser of supreme terror needs to have big boom boom s dropped on their nuclear facilities and I mean boom! Trump needs to protect the oil supplies and punish severely Iran president!
Witsi.
We are the supreme terrorists.
The gall of these parasites is unbelievable. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/09/16/daca-illegals-sue-to-ensure-they-can-use-welfare-and-still-get-green-cards/