Submitted by Hardscrabble Farmer
A severe drought grips the Western U.S. has caused an unexpected plunge in the cattle herd, indicating ‘meatflation’ will be sticking around this year as consumers pay near record-high beef prices.U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) biannual cattle inventory report for the second half of 2021 shows that the U.S. herd fell 2% a year ago. Bloomberg’s survey estimated a 1% decline.
“Plains squeezed supplies of hay and feed for cattle, prompting some ranchers to sell to slaughterhouses animals usually held for breeding. Now, deepening drought in the southern part of the Plains — where most cattle in the U.S. are raised — could force another round of herd reductions later this year,” Bloomberg said.
Derrell Peel, an extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, warned a “drought is looming large.”
“The cycle we are in right now is a liquidation phase,” Peel said. He means that worsening drought conditions will likely lead to more herd reductions.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the Western U.S. is plagued with a severe drought, reminiscent of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. The unrelenting drought will likely worsen in the months ahead.
Declining herd count is a significant concern for beef packers who face tighter markets that could send meat prices even higher. Consumers are already paying near-record high prices and could result in another price shock ahead of summer.
Meanwhile, the misguided Biden administration is approaching the meat crisis entirely wrong, blaming greedy meat processors for meatflation. But the fact is, there’s a lot more to the story than the White House admits. From declining herds, labor shortages, soaring shipping costs, snarled supply chains, and rising commodity costs, many of these inputs are increasing costs than greedy meat processors.
As shown below, Americans pay some of the highest costs ever for ground beef at the supermarket. Still, under President Biden’s plan to tame meatflation, prices have yet to come down.
Worst comes to worst, the Biden administration could just tell Americans who can no longer afford beef just to eat protein-packed bugs. Ultimately, that’s what the elites want us peasants to eat.
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There are so many factors in play here.
Drought as an excuse, that area is naturally dry. Greed is the problem, fast money from schemes. Dry land farming but depending on irrigation that will eventually run out. Government subsidies because the poor have to be fed through SNAP. Low paid labor to pick and process then ship 2000 miles.
Personally do not have to read or even think about this storm coming. And all people think about is the price but they will learn.
Same here. There is no drought. What is a drought in a highland desert? It’s actually wetter than the 80’s which were REALLY dry.
Where’s the drought in CA? Any drought there was man made by dismantling their water system because it’s dry there.
Don’t believe anything they say especially the weather.
With a selloff, the cattle price should be down and it is to the sellers; I think FJB is right this time. The consumer’s beef prices and chicken feed prices are especially high because TPTB are making them high for political and greed reasons. As for the feed lots, their day might turn to twilight as grain volume production declines due to drought and exploding fertilizer cost. I was doing fine with cows for years on grass in the Summers; and in the Winters feeding hay, grain and as much rye as I could grow until 2021 when all those costs doubled, except fertilizer which jumped 250%. Now, either consumers will pay higher for beef, or feed lots will fade away like us old soldiers, and like all the old hog and poultry farmers and barns that used to be everywhere but are long gone. Gone too will be the corn fields that stretched horizon to horizon. They are being replaced with subdivisions and some natural pastures. Us farmers are being killed off by TPTB just like they killed off Country Music on the radio.
X 1000
Expensive fertilizer is going to be a historical moment for agriculture; it’s an ungreen regressive wave; low fertility dryer land won’t grow grain cheaply anymore. Plentiful food will become history.
Driving through west Texas, you will see mile after severely stinking mile of cattle on feedlots being fattened on grain. It is not a pretty picture, and it always troubled me. Farming grain to feed to cattle seems unnatural. Cattle should be grass fed. Cattle production should be local and not concentrated in areas where grass isn’t abundant enough to support their numbers, such that grain must be fed. The concentration of so many people in huge mega cities that rely on mass farming that is unnatural will end poorly.
I will never forget flying into Amarillo for a gig back in the 90’s and being able to smell the manure in the plane at 10,000 feet. The feedlots were these huge black blocks in an otherwise desert looking landscape, packed tight with animals sanding knee deep in their own manure.
I understand the economics of grain finishing and feedlot operations and how the American palate has been shaped by the end product of that kind of practice, but it just seems wrong.
Grass fed/grass finishing takes a few years longer- commercial feedlots harvest animals at 18 month to 2 years- we slaughter older animals that have been around long enough to have bred several generations. The biggest difference in flavor is the fat content and ratio. Ours tastes very different, richer and more concentrated- I prefer it, but some people just like the greasy consistency of the McDonald’s style beef.
When I started to really look into what they were eating at CAFO’s- things like chicken feathers, wood pulp, waste products from corn/soy processing mixed in with grain- I couldn’t help but think that the people making these kinds of choices weren’t exactly concerned with quality or humane treatment.
To each their own, but if you have any real concern for your health or how livestock are treated while they are alive I don’t see how you could continue to support that kind of process.
Salatin is just a common sense guy who is fixated on doing the right thing with farming in America. You can’t watch him and not feel an immediate fellowship and affection for his approach. And look at how they live on his farm compared to the Big Ag version of livestock care.
One is about nature and the other is a factory.
A high % of Oz cattle are solely grass fed. Depending on the source, it is between 65 and 97% of all cattle are grass fed, and are marketed as such. Large feedlots like in West Texas are horrible places, and must be seen and smelled to be believed.
It takes 24 to 30 months to raise grass fed cattle in Oz. Which is far longer than grain fed.
I see similar here in Florida: Cattle spread out over a grassy expanse, as well as advertisements for Angus beef which became noticeable only a few years ago and served as hamburgers in diners.
McDonalds sells beef ?
rumor has it….
I can confirm this too… I needed a bit of feed to span a couple days between harvesting here and a friend that worked at the local feedlot offered me some ‘silage’ What he dumped into my trailer was a mix of woodchips, corn stalks and a large amount of white powder.
The wood chips were larger than what you’d find in particle board, the corn stalks were just chopped and rollered. The white powder was antibiotic mixtures to keep the cattle from getting sick and dying from standing in a foot of waste.
The landfill site was next door to the feedlot… its where the ‘silage’ went and not to my farm. Won’t buy commercial meats, period. Either we raise it or buy it from a farmer we get meat from here locally. But then moose and elk are even tastier…
Looks like Joe’s cows would be happy at our place
HSF Gregg Judy is another from the same mold. 20+ years ago he was broke and landless. He records everything he has done for the benefit of anyone wanting to get out of the Agribusiness meat grinder lifestyle, if you can call factory farming a lifestyle
Buy grass fed beef.
It costs more, but the health and flavor benefits are worth every penny more.
It also sends a message to cattlemen. Consumers will pay for a delicious product.
As someone I read said, “You are not only what you eat, you are what you eat eats.” Potent reminder.
I have to believe with rising food prices at grocery store people will eat out less. People have a primal mind.
Leaving aside the food service business. This will create more demand at the grocery store. This will excerbate the problem for people who don’t eat out because they can’t afford it.
Hoarding will likely ensue with rising prices.
Viola! One of my favorite math concepts of recursion.
You guys are looking at this all wrong.
MEATFLATION means our RIBEYES will be getting BIGGER!!!
I’m quite certain that’s how it works.
Going to be sending our pig to slaughter soon. Got her on the expired stuff from the bakery to fatten her up. Thank God because the grain prices skyrocketed. Going to be re-thinking our approach next year. Probably do our own in house butchering to save $$.
There are good butchering videos on the Youzztube.
If’fn you need a primer on the process.
You tend to eat a lot of hamburger the first couple times… nothing wrong with that…
I’ve seen larger feedlot herds than ever in areas of I-40 TX through NM.
I agree; it’s regional.
Also about slaughterhouse labor shortages and transport issues.
And .gov regulatory interference, too.
This is just the official story. The entire factory farming process is breaking down by design. They barely hide that they want us to eat bugs to Save The Planet while the Pretty People jet all over the world to lecture us about climate scams. Then we see pictures of those same people relaxing on a private yacht in a glorious location free of plebes.
My one farmer friend has been telling me about his process for raising grass fed beef. It is much less intensive than the factory farming method but it takes an extra year to be ready to harvest. The factory farming industry that feeds the world can’t afford to watch beef cows walk around in a field eating grass for 2 years.
Well, I can’t speak to everywhere, but here in Harney County we’ve had severe drought for several years now. And it’s not letting up this year. This country depends on Spring run-off (land-locked watershed) and the snow-pack has been almost non-existent for quite some time. Among other things I lease pasture and where my main leasee could usually run for 3-4 months he has had to cut the numbers of pairs and the length of stay more each year. Last year it was down to about 1/3 head and for only about a month. He was seriously considering selling off his cattle because he can’t find pasture. He’s an honest, sober-minded hard working man that I’ve known for about 40 yrs, and he said clearly last year that basically you would have to look clear back to Nebraska for any viable pasture. And he can’t use his pivots for pasture because that’s where his main income/winter feed comes from. To his credit he has been experimenting with different crops in order to try and remain solvent. We’ll see how that works out for him this year.
The land across the road I sold a few years ago to Bell A ranch only had cattle out 2 yrs ago for about a month and they didn’t use it at all last year.
There is a real thinning of herds going on, and has been for several years, but last year saw a drastic uptick.
Plus, the wildlife has really taken a hit. Deer, elk, upland birds and migratory waterfowl, tweety birds, ground squirrels, predators, insect life; you name it, it’s been hit.
So, as much as I agree on the misuse/abuse of feedlots and the never-ending bullshit that we hear, it’s the real deal in this part of the country.
Being fed bullshit goes both ways, after all.
As an addendum; the ‘official’ declaration of snow-pack % last year was “137%” of normal. Every single person I know – and I know most of the folks around here – could only surmise that they were comparing the July snow-pack with the January snow-pack. The difference between last year and normal is basically 1-2 ft vs. 10-12 ft. The bullshit, it never goes away. The mountain tops (such as they are) have less snow right now than they usually do in mid-summer.
Preaching to the choir, I know, but if anybody believes anything the ‘officials’ say without verifiable proof, they are moranic beyond all concept.
TS: Great eye-opener for us city folk. And as regards “the bullshit”, we are all equals at suffering that.
Truism, that.
THIS is something worth at least skimming through. Are the suburbs causing the economic problems?
I think this is a bullshit bunch of propaganda…
I gladly pay extra for grass fed and/or free range beef and bison. Worth every penny and the taste difference is astounding.
People have no idea until they have had natural raised or wild bovine, cervine, fowl/ poultry or fish. Best exposure I had was in Oklahoma around Fort Sill and the wild game on Quanah Parker West Range. Everything away from adulteration tastes infinitely better.
ZFG, out.
P.S. wild gator is pretty fucken good too.
Toss in a couple fertilizer plant fires randomly occuring….Meat won’t be the only thing scarce this year.
Just a coincidence I’m sure !
Where’s the beef?
Bloomberg reports 150 trucks packed with beef, bound for the US, are stuck in a traffic jam at the border at Coutts, Alberta, the Canadian Meat Council said. Since the weekend, a convoy of truckers has slowed processing times between Alberta and Montana.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/150-meat-trucks-stranded-us-canada-border-protests-continue
They’ll charge more now that its aged…
Cynical much? 🙂
not a cynical bone in my body… /s
Trust me, you didn’t have to add the /s for me.
Haha!
Fuck cows!! They cause Global Warming (methane laden cow farts)!!
Less cows … and now FREEZING temps in Florida! Correlation IS causation. I look forward to the day when not one cow is left alive in America, and my Nut-sack & His Friend shrivel to the size of a walnut for six months. Global Cooling is definitely the way to go.
You are so full of Bull Shit (loving hard cold nuts, hating beef cows and thereby grilled steaks and burgers) that you probably are a Methane source worth tapping at both ends. PS: Tallahassee did hit 19 F on Sunday nite 30 Jan 2021 but we are back to shorts and T-shirts today. Now if we could just ship the liberals back to New Jersey…
Fuck cows? I thought youz wasa Joisey Boy, not a Texan. Oh, that’s right, it’s sheep. My bad.
I signed up for an equity line this week…. hoping to buy a couple of 3lb. chuck roasts.
That’s a joke, right? Because I have a big fat heifer hanging at the butcher shop right now, killed yesterday. In two weeks, I’ll have more than a couple chuck roasts you can buy when we meet in Paducah! If you’re nice and not an asshole when we meet, you might just get a piece of extra-aged tenderloin. Um, Um, good.
Just grassfed goodness with no equity involved.
Just kidding Mags! Moi an asshole, never. Dogs and babies love me.
Well, I thought so, but I do plan to make sure those folks who need good meat get some of this heifer God sent my way.
You might get a chunk of tenderloin anyway!
My favorite! 🙂
T-bone, Porterhouse, etc
Things may go to Hell in a handbasket, but there’s a few of us will eat well until the bottom seriously for real all the chips are down drops out from under us.
I just had an omelete with fresh eggs, home raised pork sausage, garden veggies and fresh grown herbs and spices. Had to add a few boughten things, like salt, etc, but I got lots o’ that stuff.
That’s the pay-off for being a prepper/homesteader type long before it was cool.
We had 23 deer in our pasture the other evening.
Nobody will go hungry out here.
Same here. Thar’s protein in them thar hills. And the drier it gets, the more the animals come to the water troughs.
They really appreciate our pond.
There are plenty of stories from Sarajevo during their civil war. One of the 1st things to disappear was the deer in the forest. By the end of the conflict the forest was silent because even the songirds had been eaten.
It’s a well-known local fact that when the economy goes to shit, the game population drops drastically. Been true for a lot longer than my 65 years.
No roasts left. Only half a crock of three week old gruel we scraped out of the pig trough.
But we’re selling!!! Only 49.99 an ounce!!!
“… blaming greedy meat processors for meatflation.” You mean the the union and illegal voters? Thems dems, Joe. Just once I would like to hear him utter the words “greedy pharmaceutical companies”.
It’s INFLATION, ya’ll.
There will be food rationing in most of the world
[Soon to be replacing those roadside billboards proclaiming, “BEEF–It’s What’s For Dinner”]:
Billboards depicting a grinning, semi-toothless hillbilly-with-straw-hat, “BUGS–It’s Wut’s Fer Breakfast.”
Folks, Don’t buy prepackaged ground beef.
Either grind your own, or better yet hand chop it with a cleaver.
And add plenty of fat. At least 30%. Best is a 60%-40% lean to fat ratio.
Your burger will be INFINITELY better and quite a bit cheaper.
And use “Arnold” buns. And caramelize onions if you put them on burgers. And use deli cheese.
and there is SO much more….
Thank me later.
I could go one forever about burgers. I’m obsessed in trying to find the perfect one.
TBP needs a burger’n beer fest…
Elk burger – mixed with morel mushrooms, wild onions and garden-fresh garlic. Smoked in mesquite. Topped with Tillamook Sharp Cheddar and home-raised bacon.
edit: Damn, I just made myself hungry. Better go grab one of my smoked/sealed/frozen steaks and thaw it out.
Here’s mine.
I mix 1/2 fresh ground beef with 1/2 fresh round pork, fleur de sel, black pepper. In a cast iron pan (hot, just a smear of tallow) press it down flat, about 3/4″ thick. When it’s crispy on the bottom, flip it, immediately cover it with fresh shredded cheese- I like local cheddar, whatever you prefer- so that it not only covers the burger, but surrounds it in the pan.
Pop it in the over at 500 degrees for about four or five minutes, or until cheese is melted and just starting to brown.
If I’m using a bun I toast it first, smear it with homemade mayo, finely shredded lettuce, chopped Vidalia onion, some homemade mustard, a little ketchup, then put the burger right on the bun and scrape the toasted cheese from the pan- sort of like cheese French fries- on top, and eat.
I defy you to take your time with these smash burgers. Every single bite is off the charts. I eat at least two or three a week, probably my single favorite American meal.
My smashburgers are similar but after I put the cheese on I pour a small amount of water in the pan and cover it. The water quickly steams the cheese and it is naturally creamy.
Niiiice, Hardscramble. Culinary creativity is one of the greatest pleasures.
The farm that was close to me could no longer afford to stay in business. I always bought grassfed meat and duck eggs and trusted the goods. A grocery store near me carries both items. A cashier remarked about the price of 9.99 grass fed meat and the 5.00 duck eggs that I hoped were real ( this was before inflation). My response was something like yeah I skipped the 3 for 9.99 deal in the pop aisle and 2 for 5 deal in the chip aisle so it all evens out.
Drought, Western US. zerohedge generally does not publish bullshit information. When “normal” rainfall diminishes and mountainous areas of the “desert”, which do exist, are not getting “normal” rainfall or winter snowfall for spring runoff ( blame it on chem trails) , duh, we people start considering this “drought”.
For FACT, during the severe “droughts” in Texas , 2012-2014, something called rain was not happening and far , far , below “normal” rainfall. We actually had a lot of houses burn to the ground, for instance, Bastrop, Texas, I was sort of sweating this particular drought in East Texas as yes, there were fires springing up here and there because …it was drier than “normal”. I don’t know a lot about other parts of the country, Paradise , California disintegrated because it was extremely DRY there and high winds dispersed fires that burned the dog out of that place! In Texas many cattle ranchers either sold their cattle or moved them to places like Montana. True story. Why? Because without rain the grass don’t grow. Without grass the cattle don’t graze. smh
Droughts existed during Biblical times and forever as far as man can recollect. 2012-2014,Wichita Falls, Texas implemented recycling of waste water , piss and poop water , so people there could drink “water”. smh Not all weather reports are FAKE NEWS.
I think that the main Western Dams will go dry in a year (or two) and maybe 50 million Westerners will be moving east. All that expensive solar electricity will do them no good. If you ain’t Conservative, please make your move north of Mason-Dixon; we don’t want a repeat of Reconstruction.