Tag: investing

Guest Post by Chris MacIntosh

Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital put out a note to clients sometime ago, “I Beg to Differ” and the below paragraph in particular resonated with me.

First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.”

native advertising

Second-level thinking is deep, complex, and convoluted. The second-level thinker takes a great many things into account:

• What is the range of likely future outcomes?
• What outcome do I think will occur?
• What’s the probability I’m right?
• What does the consensus think?
• How does my expectation differ from the consensus?
• How does the current price for the asset compare with the consensus view of the future, and with mine?
• Is the consensus psychology that’s incorporated in the price too bullish or bearish?
• What will happen to the asset price if the consensus turns out to be right, and what if I’m right?

Continue reading “Understanding the Geopolitical Landscape in 2023… What It Means for Your Portfolio”

Guest Post by Doug Casey

For some time, I’ve been saying that the economy is in the “eye of the storm” and that when it emerged, the weather would be far rougher than in 2008. The trillions of currency units created since 2007, combined with artificially suppressed interest rates, have papered over the situation. But only temporarily. When the economy goes into the trailing edge of the hurricane, the storm will be much different, much worse, and much longer lasting than what we experienced in 2008 and 2009.

In some ways, the immediate and direct effects of this money creation appear beneficial. For instance, by not only averting a sharp complete collapse of financial markets and the banking system, but by taking the stock market to unprecedented highs. It’s allowed individuals and governments to borrow more, and live even further above their means. It may even create what’s known as a “crack-up boom”.

Continue reading “Save, Invest, Speculate, Trade or Gamble?”

Via International Man

International Man: What is your approach to investing, and how does it differ from others?

Chris MacIntosh: Firstly, when I look at things, it’s typically undervalued.

It’s the old adage: You buy what’s cheap, and you sell what’s expensive.

So, what’s cheap? That’s the first step—to look at relative value.

The second thing is to look at what we’ve just discussed—the geopolitical environment and overlaying that.

Where those two of those things intersect is where we get comfortable allocating capital. That’s our approach.

Continue reading “What the Mainstream Financial Media Won’t Tell You About How to Invest in These Volatile Times”