JC Penney – The Burning Platform

THINGS COULDN’T BE BETTER – RIGHT?

Donald Trump tells me our best days are ahead. Once his tax cut plan is passed, the future will be so bright I’ll have to wear shades.

Sometimes a single chart reveals the truth being obscured by the Deep State propaganda machine, working overtime selling their economic recovery narrative. The economy most certainly is booming for Wall Streeters and D.C. parasites sucking on the teet of Federal government largess. But for the average working deplorable, this supposed recovery has passed them by.

The cognitive dissonance is strong, as average Americans want to believe what their “leaders” are telling them to believe, but their personal financial situation contradicts the narrative. Even using the highly manipulated data peddled by the BLS, any critical thinking individual can see through the lies, misinformation and bullshit.

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WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?

“The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.” – H.L. Mencken

“The older I get the less I listen to what people say and the more I look at what they do.”– Andrew Carnegie

I’m 53 years old. The older I get the less sure I am about things I was sure about when I was 25 years old. I believed stocks for the long run was an unquestioned truth. I believed our economy was based on free market capitalism. I believed stock prices were based upon profits and cash flows. I believed a home was a place to live – not an investment. I believed the Catholic Church was run by good men doing good things. I believed journalists and the media were watchdogs working on behalf of the public. I believed our military was protecting our interests. I believed politicians legislated on behalf of the people. I believed the main purpose of bankers was to loan money to businesses and consumers in order to support economic growth. Boy, was I dumbass.

My skeptical nature, reliance on data I’ve personally vetted, and judging our leaders based on what they have done versus what they say, has allowed me to escape the Matrix. I wasn’t truly awakened until I watched Bush, Cheney, Powell, the rest of the neo-con prevaricators and fake news mainstream media utilize propaganda to railroad Americans into a $6 trillion unnecessary war, resulting in 36,000 American casualties, the destruction of a country and the creation of thousands of new Muslim terrorists.

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THE GREAT CORPORATE EARNINGS FRAUD

“What are the odds that people will make smart decisions about money if they don’t need to make smart decisions–if they can get rich making dumb decisions? The incentives on Wall Street were all wrong; they’re still all wrong.” ― Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

Corporate earnings reports for the fourth quarter are pretty much in the books. The deception, falsification, accounting manipulation, and propaganda utilized by mega-corporations and their compliant corporate media mouthpieces has been outrageously blatant. It reeks of desperation as the Wall Street shysters attempt to extract the last dollar from their muppet clients before this house of cards collapses.

The CEOs of these mega-corporations accelerated their debt financed stock buybacks in 2015 as stock prices reached all-time highs and are currently so overvalued, they will deliver 0% returns over the next decade. This disgraceful act of pure greed by the Ivy League educated leaders of corporate America to boost their own stock based compensation is reckless and absurd.

It is proof education at our most prestigious universities has produced avaricious MBAs following financial models and each other like lemmings going over the cliff. Proof of their foolishness is self evident after perusing the chart below. These intellectual giants evidently never learned the basic rule of buying low and selling high in order to make a profitable trade.

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AND IT BEGINS

Last year it was the polar vortex that caused retail sales to be terrible at Christmas. This year it was too warm. How come it can never be just right? What a load of bullshit. If Macys really believed their bad sales was due to warm weather, why the fuck would they announce the closing of 36 more stores and the firing of 3,000 more employees? Who does that because of weather?

This is just the beginning. It is only January 6. Over the next month dozens of retailers will report atrocious results. Some might report positive sales, but they needed to slash prices to achieve any sales gains. Profits will be non-existent. Sears, JC Penny, and numerous other bricks and mortar retailers will announce the closings of hundreds more stores. There will be 5 to 10 retail bankruptcies in the next few months. Ghost malls will become spookier.

This always happens when the economy is recovering. Right? The consumer doesn’t have a pot to piss in. They can’t handle a $500 emergency expenditure. They’re up to their eyeballs in auto, student loan and credit card debt. An economy built upon people buying shit they don’t need with money they don’t have has hit the wall. I wonder who could have foreseen the collapse of retail in America.

Oh yeah. That was me.

Macy’s cuts costs, and thousands of jobs

By Chelsey Dulaney

Published: Jan 6, 2016 4:45 p.m. ET

Shares of Macy’s, down 44% over the past year through the close Wednesday, rose 3.4% to $37.38 in after-hours trading.

Macy’s, which called its 2015 performance “disappointing,” said it expects to cut about 3,000 associate jobs across its stores and implement a “voluntary separation opportunity” for about 165 senior executives. It also will cut 600 back-office jobs and eliminate 750 jobs by consolidating call centers.

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HOW MANY MORE RECESSION CONFIRMATIONS DO YOU NEED?

Despite the bogus BLS employment report last week (so the Fed could raise rates before the next financial crisis hits), all economic data confirms an economic recession. Corporate profits are falling, and their forecasts for next quarter are worse. Global trade is slowing dramatically. Oil prices and other commodities are plummeting to multi-year lows. Manufacturing and Services surveys are flashing red. China, Japan and European economies continue to suck wind. Layoff announcements by major corporations are up 40% over last year. A global deflationary recession is underway. Only a CNBC bimbo, shill or Ivy League educated economist isn’t bright enough to see it.

Retail sales came out this morning and they were worse than dreadful. They confirmed the horrific quarterly reports from Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, and Kohl’s. Total retail sales grew a minuscule 0.1% from September and only 1.7% versus last year. It’s even worse than it looks. When you back out the subprime auto loan spurred auto sales (long term rentals), retail sales grew only 0.5% over last year. That is far less than true inflation, so on a real basis retail sales are FALLING like a rock. This only happens during recessions. And it isn’t a one month thing. Retail sales, even including loan boosted auto sales, are flat over the last three months and up only 2.1% for the first 10 months of the year.

The decline in gasoline sales due to plunging prices has contributed to the lousy retail sales numbers, but the storyline of the economic bulls was how this was going to boost the spending of consumers across the board. That storyline is as dead as an Obamacare patient. It seems all the gasoline savings immediately went to pay for the soaring cost of Obamacare, even though the BLS says there is no healthcare inflation. There are a few areas that jump out at me and paint an even darker picture:

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MACY’S IMPLODING, CATCHING DOWN TO SEARS & PENNEY’S

About that resilient consumer and the tremendously low unemployment rate of 5%, maybe someone should tell Macy’s why their sales and profits continue to plummet. Their stock is down 13% today to a three year low of $40. It has fallen 45% in the last four months. It seems the market doesn’t like it when your sales fall 5.2% over last year and your profits crash by 46%. And this is after you close a bunch of your worst performing stores. I have a feeling they might be announcing the closure of another 100 stores after this upcoming disastrous Christmas season.

It was interesting that when I looked for their earnings announcement link on Marketwatch, it was no where to be found. So I went to their website, and now I know why they don’t want the results too widely viewed. It’s much worse than the headlines reveal. When you examine their balance sheet and cash flow statement, you see the looming disaster on the horizon. The executives running this retail titanic might be the dumbest fuckers on earth.

Let’s examine their brilliant strategic moves:

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TWO RETAILERS DOWN, WET SEAL & RADIOSHACK CLOSE BEHIND

Delia’s and Deb Shops filed for bankruptcy in December. That’s 438 more vacant storefronts across America. Now Wet Seal will close at least 338 more stores, and likely all 500 when they file for bankruptcy in the next couple weeks. Then the biggie. RadioShack will end up closing 5,000 locations when they file for bankruptcy in the very near future. Once the financial results are reported in February for all the major retailers you will see announcements from Sears, JC Penney, Macys and many others closing hundreds or thousands of more stores. Sure sounds like a consumer driven economic recovery.

Wet Seal may be too late to stave off bankruptcy

By Andria Cheng

Published: Jan 7, 2015 12:16 p.m. ET

Teen retailer is closing most of its stores and laying off staff

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—Teen retailer Wet Seal Inc. said Wednesday it is shutting two-thirds of its stores as it races to shore up liquidity and keep its operations afloat. But it may be too late to avoid the fate of former rivals Delia’s and Deb Shops, which filed for bankruptcy protection in December.

Already, a lender on some of the company’s senior convertible notes has issued a default notice with a deadline of Jan. 12. Unless Wet Seal meets its obligations or strikes a new agreement, the company is facing bankruptcy, said former bankruptcy attorney David Tawil of hedge fund Maglan Capital.

“I don’t think that there is a good chance (of it surviving) unless there is a trick up someone’s sleeve that we haven’t seen yet,” Tawil told MarketWatch. “It has been a long time coming.”

Wet Seal didn’t respond to a request seeking comment.

Wet Seal said the store closings came after it failed to get concessions from its landlords. The retailer, once a destination for teen and college girls, has lost sales to other fast-fashion players such as Forever 21 and H&M.

The teen sector has generally underperformed the broader retail segment, and other companies including Aéropostale Inc. ARO, +2.23% and Pacific Sunwear PSUN, +4.55% also are expected to shut stores this year. The sector is battling the trend in which teens are shifting spending to electronics and other items over fashion.

Read: here are some fashion stocks to buy and to avoid in 2015.

Wet Seal CEO Ed Thomas, who returned in September after heading the company from 2007 to 2011, has admitted the company has gotten “off-track,” skewing toward a younger customer with too much basic merchandise.

Thomas has promised to return the chain to “a fast-fashion model with emphasis on fashion product” that provides “constant newness.” The company will focus on fashion assortments over basics and define its target customer as 18-24-year-old women.

But that may be too late. Wet Seal has lost money in eight of the past 10 quarters, and is expected to lose money the next two quarters, according to Retail Metrics. Its comparable sales dropped 11 of the past 13 quarters. Holiday-quarter sales are expected to slump another 9.7%, after a 14.% drop in the third quarter, Retail Metrics data showed. Cash and cash equivalents tumbled 37% to $19.1 million as of Nov. 1 from a year earlier.

Some employees on Wednesday posted signs in store windows, with the hashtag #forgetwetseal, complaining that the company didn’t give them any prior notice of the closures and they weren’t paid for unused vacation and sick time.

“It’s possible but very unlikely” it will survive, said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

It will be an uphill battle, he said.

CHRISTMAS SUCKED

The classic Wall Street bullshit parade is under way. JC Penney made the dramatic announcement that same store sales during the holiday period grew by a whole 3.7%. They grew by 3.1% last year. The previous year they FELL by an astounding 31%. This year also had an extra day versus last year.

So let me give you some perspective. If their sales were $100 in 2011 and they fell by 31% in 2012, rose by 3.1% in 2013, and rose by another 3.7% in 2014, that means they are now at $74. JC Penney’s holiday sales were still 26% lower than they were in 2011 and the Wall Street shysters jacked the stock up by 20% overnight. Think about that for a moment. They are celebrating results that leave them 26% below their sales level from four years ago.

Here is what the jackoff CEO from JC Penney did not reveal in his press release. What was the customer traffic increase? I’m sure most of the increase came from on-line business and pricing. He did not reveal the tremendous profits these sales will generate. You know why? Because JC Penny used huge promotions and discounts to achieve their mammoth 3.7% increase.

JC Penney will be reporting massive losses for the fourth quarter. The Wall Street shysters will have already sold after the 20% surge, because the stock will tank again.

The proof that Christmas sucked is revealed in the chart below. Checkout the 4th quarter of 2012. There were 14 retailers who announced their earnings would be less than expected and 12 who announced better than expected earnings. Look at this year. There have been 24 retailers announce WORSE earnings than expected and 3 better than expected. Does that sound like a great Christmas season?

This destroys the economic recovery meme sold to the public by Obama, Wall Street and the captured MSM media. Profits talk. If there really was a strong jobs recovery and the “tremendous” savings from gas price declines, consumers would be spending. The proof they are not is in the chart. Don’t believe the bullshit being heaped on you every day. Nothing but lies and propaganda.

JC PENNEY SHITS THE BED AGAIN & LOSES $188 MILLION

I love reading the spin that passes for earnings releases these days. Remember earlier in the year when the CEO of JC Penney was predicting a glorious turnaround and the Wall Street shysters drove the stock up from $5 to $11?

It’s back under $8 and still headed to $0.

The faux journalists are doing their usual bullshit pump job, but here are the facts:

Even though they were predicting same store sales increases in the 5% to 10% range early in the year, quarterly same store sales were up 0%. This is after a 4% decline last year and 20% declines in the year before that. Sounds awesome.
They lost another $188 million, bringing the 9 month loss to over $700 million. This is after losing over $2 billion last year.
They had a negative cash flow from operations of $320 million for the quarter.
Their long-term debt has increased by $500 million in the last year, while their equity has declined by $200 million.

There is no recovery here. They slowed the bleeding, but they are still dying. They will lose over $500 million in the 4th quarter. Book it dano. Their sales will be negative again. The CEO will lie and Wall Street will pump and dump. But, JC Penney is still on a path to bankruptcy.

JCPENNEY REPORTS FISCAL 2014 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS

PLANO, Texas – (Nov. 12, 2014) – J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) today announced financial results for the quarter ended Nov. 1, 2014.

Myron E. (Mike) Ullman, III, Chief Executive Officer, said, “This quarter shows the progress we are making in the final phase of JCPenney’s turnaround. We continued to significantly improve the profitability of our business with gross margin expansion of 710 basis points, a $342 million improvement in EBITDA and bottom-line financial results that exceeded even our own expectations. Like most retailers, following a strong start to the back-to-school season, sales did slow in September and October as unseasonably warm weather hindered the sale of fall goods.”

Mr. Ullman continued, “During appointment shopping periods like Back to School and Holiday, JCPenney is the customer’s preferred destination for discovering great style, quality and value. This year, we are confident customers will once again choose JCPenney for meaningful holiday gifts that fit their family’s budget. We are well positioned to compete this holiday season and I would like to thank our associates for their hard work, warrior spirit and commitment to delivering an exceptional customer experience every day.”

Financial Results

For the third quarter, JCPenney reported net sales of $2.764 billion compared to $2.779 billion in the third quarter of 2013, with same store sales flat for the quarter.

Home and Fine Jewelry were among the Company’s top performing merchandise divisions in the quarter. Sephora inside JCPenney also continued its strong performance. Geographically, the western and northeastern regions of the country delivered the best performance.

For the third quarter, gross margin was 36.6 % of sales, compared to 29.5 % in the same quarter last year, representing a 710 basis point improvement. Gross margin was positively impacted by a significant improvement in the Company’s mix and margin on clearance sales over the prior year quarter.

Inventory was $3.358 billion, down 10.4 % compared to the same quarter last year. The Company noted it is pleased with the level and content of its inventory heading into the holiday season.

SG&A expenses for the quarter were down $18 million to $988 million, 35.7 % of sales. These savings were primarily driven by lower store expenses and corporate overhead costs.

Operating income for the quarter was a loss of $54 million which represents a $347 million or 87 % improvement over last year. EBITDA was $102 million, a $342 million improvement from the same period last year. EBITDA for the quarter included a gain of $88 million related to the sale of certain store assets. For the third quarter, the Company incurred a net loss of $188 million or ($0.62) per share. A reconciliation of EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is included with this release.

Financial Position

During the quarter, the Company completed a $400 million offering of senior unsecured notes. The net proceeds of the offering of 8.125 % Senior Notes due 2019 were used to pay the tender consideration and related transaction fees and expenses for the Company’s cash tender offers for approximately $327 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 6.875 % Medium-Term Notes due 2015, 7.65 % Debentures due 2016 and 7.95 % Debentures due 2017. Subsequent to the completion of the tender offers, the Company used approximately $64 million of available cash to effect a legal defeasance of the remaining outstanding principal amount of Medium-Term Notes due 2015 by depositing funds with the Trustee for the Notes sufficient to make all payments of interest and principal on the outstanding Notes to October 15, 2015, the stated maturity of the Notes. Through the notes offering, tender offer and defeasance, the Company was able to proactively address its near-term debt maturities. As a result, the Company’s next debt maturity will be approximately $78 million in August 2016.

The Company ended the quarter with over $1.9 billion in total available liquidity.

Outlook

The Company’s guidance for the fourth quarter of 2014 is as follows:

•Comparable store sales: expected to increase 2 % to 4 %;
•Gross margin: expected to increase 500 to 600 basis points versus last year; and
•SG&A expenses: expected to be slightly above last year’s levels.
The Company’s updated 2014 full-year guidance is as follows:

•Comparable store sales: expected to be 3.5 % to 4.5 %;
•Gross margin: expected to be 500 to 600 basis points above last year;
•Free cash flow: expected to be positive;
•Liquidity: expected to be approximately $2.1 billion at year-end;
•Capital expenditures: expected to be approximately $250 million; and
•Depreciation and amortization: expected to be approximately $640 million.
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CHRISTMAS IN OCTOBER – DESPERATE MEASURES

The desperation of retailers grows by the day. I head to Wal-Mart and Giant in Harleysville every Sunday morning at 7:00 am. to do my weekly grocery shopping. I go to Wal-Mart at opening to avoid the freaks we see weekly on the People of Wal-Mart post. The workers at Wal-Mart are only a small step above the customers. They can barely communicate, rarely look you in the eye, and generally act like they are prisoners in an asylum.

I’m in winter/bad times ahead prep mode. I had a load of fire wood delivered yesterday which I wheelbarrowed to the back yard and stacked with my already decent sized stack. Last week I took an empty propane canister back to Wal-Mart to replace it with a full canister. That would give me three full propane tanks. I left the empty tank outside next to the propane cage and went in to pay. The old lady cashier with the gravelly smoker voice told me she would call for someone to get me a new tank.

I went over the cage and patiently waited for a Wal-Mart drone to come out, unlock the propane cage and give me a full tank. Two minutes, five minutes, and eventually ten minutes go by with no one coming out to help me. The cashier pokes her head out the door and shrugs her shoulders and says no one is responding to her calls. What a well oiled machine they have at Wal-Mart. Eventually the old lady abandoned her cashier post and in a painstakingly slow manner proceeded to unlock one bin after another until she found a full tank. I’m sure a line of unhappy customers were piling up at the only register in the garden center while she spent ten minutes getting me my propane tank.

A transaction that should have taken five minutes from start to finish ended up taking closer to twenty five minutes, with another five or six customers also dissatisfied with their extra long wait. This is a perfect example of how not to do business. Maybe Wal-Mart’s problems are bigger than households having less to spend. They are attempting to maintain their profit margins by reducing staff hours, hiring low quality people, and paying them shit wages. In the short run it may keep profits higher, but in the long-run customers will go elsewhere. Except most of the elsewhere stores closed up years ago when Wal-Mart arrived and underpriced them into bankruptcy.

My shopping experience at Giant is generally pleasant. The staff are nice, competent, and have been there for years. They know what they are doing and serve you with a smile. But their store is part of a worldwide conglomerate, so things have changed for the worse over the last four months. They renovated the entire store, creating bigger aisles and moving stuff around. That’s annoying, but after a while you figure out where they moved the stuff you want. The real negative change was the dreaded “Everyday Low Pricing”. This weasel phrase means you will be paying more. This is what the Apple idiot CEO – Ron Johnson – did at JC Penney. It put them on a rapid path to bankruptcy.

The weekly sale items at Giant have virtually disappeared. This has coincided with the drastic increase in beef, pork and fresh produce prices. Since “Every Day Low Pricing” went into affect our weekly grocery bill has gone up 20%. And I am buying far less beef and more chicken. In the past I would stock up on sale items and put beef, pork and whatever was on sale in our storage area freezer. Now I am stuck buying what we need that week. No bargains, just fully priced food items. Be forewarned, whenever you see a store announce “Everyday Low Pricing” you are getting screwed.

The Boos Begin in August & Bells Start Jingling in October

The desperation of Wal-Mart and most of the other mega-retail chains is no more clearly evident than in their relentlessly ridiculous acceleration of holiday marketing displays. I was flabbergasted when I saw Halloween candy, decorations and costumes in row after row BEFORE Labor Day at my local Wal-Mart. Selling Halloween candy two months before Halloween is idiotic and a sure sign of desperation. Retailers have run out of merchandising ideas. I wouldn’t even consider buying Halloween candy until the week before Halloween. Do Wal-Mart freaks of the week actually buy Halloween merchandise in September?

Holidays used to be special occasions that lent a sense of sales urgency for retailers for a week or two, to pump up sales. Now Wal-Mart and the rest of the dying retailers have Christmas, Easter, Fourth of July, and Halloween displays up for 80% of the year. There is no sense of urgency to buy. From September 1 though October 31 there are rows and rows of bags of corporate produced chemicals disguised as candy. I suppose the obese masses buy this crap in anticipation of Halloween, tell themselves they’ll only take one, and then shovel the entire bag down their gullets.

So last week, still a full two weeks before Halloween, Wal-Mart had already converted their entire garden center into a Christmas wonderland of cheap mass produced Chinese cookie cutter Christmas decorations and lights that will blow out after three hours of use. They had also converted aisles at the front of the store to Christmas displays. Who the hell shops for Christmas crap in October? There is nothing like having cheap Chinese Christmas crap available for over two months to create a sense of urgency to buy. Wal-Mart and the rest of the mega-retailers have got nothin. They have no original merchandising ideas. They don’t even try anymore. They source low quality goods from China and compete solely on price. I can’t wait for the Easter candy to appear on Wal-Mart’s shelves in late December.

Black Thanksgiving

Black Friday is dead. Long live Black Thanksgiving. The riots and stampedes by the ignorant masses for toasters and HDTVs on Black Friday are now being replaced by retailers and malls across America opening at 6:00 pm on Thanksgiving. It actually seems fitting. How better to give thanks for our mass consumption, debt financed, materialistic, iGadget addicted society than to open stores on Thanksgiving. Spending time with family is overrated anyway. If you had to spend six hours with cousin Eddie and aunt Bethany, you’d be looking forward to an early opening at Macy’s.

The bullshit message from the mega-retailers is: “We’re not opening on Thanksgiving out of desperation or greed. We’re doing it simply to satisfy the demands of our customers”. It’s a racist national holiday anyway. We should be going to an Indian run casino on Thanksgiving to make up for our past sins. Opening stores and forcing workers to work on Thanksgiving is pathetic, disgusting and a truly desperate measure in this consumer empire in decline. The law of diminishing returns has been invoked upon the mega-retailers that dominate our suburban sprawl paradise.

These retailers can start holiday merchandising three months before the actual holiday. They can open their doors on Thanksgiving, Easter and Christmas. It’s nothing more than shuffling the deck furniture on the Titanic. We’ve allowed bankers, politicians and corporate titans to financialize our economy, gutting the once thriving middle class, sending manufacturing jobs overseas, and convincing the clueless masses that consumer goods purchased with debt is equal to wealth. But, we’ve reached the point of no return. There are 248 million working age Americans and 102 million of them are not employed. Of the 146 million working Americans, 82 million of them make less than $30,000 per year.

While retailers have added billions of square feet since 1989, real median net worth is 5% lower over 24 years. Retailers are attempting to get blood from a stone. The stone is in debt, approaching retirement with no savings and dead broke.

We have one entity that deserves the most credit for destroying the American Dream. Real median household income is lower than it was in 1989. The 2008 collapse was caused by the easy money bubble machine at the Federal Reserve. We had the opportunity to hit the reset button, implement rational economic and monetary policies, take our lumps, and make the banking culprits pay for their crimes. Instead, the easily manipulated masses believed the Wall Street storyline and allowed the Federal Reserve and feckless politicians to save the banking cabal with extreme money printing and debt creation. This has pushed the middle class closer to the breaking point, while further enriching the oligarchs. The Federal Reserve saved their owners and lured the masses further into debt.

The Fed, Wall Street, and Washington DC have successfully driven consumer debt to an all-time high, blasting through the $3 trillion level. Declining real incomes and rising debt are a sure recipe for success.

Our entire economic paradigm is built upon desperate measures. Zero interest rates, $3 trillion of QE, systematic accounting fraud, fudged economic data, and doling out subprime loans to auto renters and University of Phoenix wannabes have failed to revive our moribund economy. Delusions don’t die easily. But they do die. We are reaching the limit of this delusionary dream built upon debt, denial, and deception. Make sure you wolf down that Thanksgiving feast before 5:00 pm. There are HDTV’s to fight for at 6:00 pm.