This is Part Three of a three part series trying to make sense of the Crisis period we entered in 2008. Click here to read: PART ONE or PART TWO
Seeking Regeneracy
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The 2008 election happened in the midst of the catalyst events. A sweeping political realignment did not occur. In fact, the 2010 mid-term elections produced a result which has essentially gridlocked the political process in Washington D.C. The reunification and reenergizing of society has yet to occur. Neil Howe in his recent article pondered the question of regeneracy:
“We may like to imagine that there is a definable day and hour when America, faced by growing danger and adversity, explicitly decides to patch over its differences, band together, and build something new. But maybe what really happens is that everyone feels so numb that they let somebody in charge just go ahead and do whatever he’s got to do. I’m thinking of how America felt during the bleak years of FDR’s first term, or during Lincoln’s assumption of vast war powers after his repeated initial defeats on the battlefield.
The regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event. But it does have to mark the beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency. Typically, the catalyst itself doesn’t lead directly to a regeneracy. There has to be a second or third blow, something that seems a lot more perilous than just the election of third-party candidate (Civil War catalyst) or a very bad month in the stock market (Great Power catalyst). We are still due for such a moment. We have not yet reached our regeneracy. When it happens, I strongly suspect it will be in response to an adverse financial event. It may also happen in response to a geopolitical event. It may well happen over the next year or two.” – Neil Howe – Dating the Fourth Turning
Regeneracy occurred within five years of the outset of the three previous Crisis periods in U.S. history. The historic year of 1776 saw the colonies come together and declare independence from Great Britain. Group solidarity and willingness to die for their cause launched an eight year war and ultimately the formation of a new republic. The Civil War regeneracy occurred after the Union debacle at Bull Run in 1861. The Washington aristocrats had treated the battle like a show, where they could bring a picnic lunch and be entertained by an entertaining skirmish between two armies. After the resounding bloody defeat Abraham Lincoln assumed dictatorial like powers over the North and ordered the immediate enlistment of a half a million soldiers. He assumed unprecedented powers of taxation, forced conscription, suspension of due process and showed a willingness to administer maximum destruction to his foes. This would be no picnic in the park, as 700,000 men died in the next three years. The regeneracy during the Great Depression/WWII Crisis occurred in 1933 with the election of Franklin Roosevelt. He immediately declared a bank holiday and confiscated all the gold in the country. In a flurry of executive orders and bills sent to Congress he rammed through his New Deal, assuming new and broader powers for the Federal government and Executive branch.
Based on these examples in American history it is clear we have not entered the regeneracy stage of this Crisis. Also based on history, it is likely to occur by the end of 2013. A second blow to our nation and our psyches is the only thing that could possibly bring together a deeply divided nation. The country was struck by a category 3 hurricane in 2008. We have been in the eye of the hurricane for the last two years and have grown complacent. The eye will pass over us in the next year and we will again be buffeted by hurricane force winds – except the hurricane has strengthened to a category 5 as the “solutions” to the storm will make part two far worse. Those with a libertarian mindset are not likely to be happy with the Federal government and President taking on even greater powers in the coming years. The usurpation of more control over the citizens of this country in the last decade has been one of the major reasons for the ratcheting down of trust in our leaders. The upcoming presidential election will likely create the dynamic that propels the country into its regeneracy. If the next downward blow can be averted before the election, the country will end up with four more years of Obama. If the Crisis suddenly worsens before November, Romney assumes the mantle of Prophet Leader in January 2013.
I agree with Neil Howe that the country’s reaction to an adverse financial event will be the likely regeneracy moment. The explosive mixture of the five D’s will provide the spark for the next phase: Debt; Derivatives; Default; Devaluation; and ultimately Depression. There is no way to deny the $15.6 trillion of debt this country has accumulated, with $10 trillion of it added since 2000. The debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion will be breached in October 2012 at the current rate of extreme spending. This should set up an interesting dynamic just prior to the November elections. A replay of the August 2011 showdown could be disastrous for Obama if the stock market were to crater again.
We are accumulating debt at a rate of $3.7 billion per day, or $154 million per hour. No politician of either party, other than Ron Paul, has any plan to even moderate the spending, let alone make actual cuts. The CBO projections rolled out by these congressional weasels aren’t worth the paper they are printed on. The National Debt is on track to surpass $20 trillion in 2015 and $25 trillion by 2018. And this is before the Medicare and Social Security costs blast into orbit in 2020. Kicking the can down the road works until math catches up with you. It is insane to believe we can dig ourselves out of this debt induced mess with more debt, but empires tend to act insanely in their death throes.
“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
Strauss & Howe made preparation recommendations back in 1997 that would have lessened the impact of this Crisis, but they fell on deaf ears. Their common sense suggestions included:
- Work to elevate moral and cultural standards. Toddlers with Tiaras and The Kardashians were not an elevation.
- Shed and simplify the federal government by cutting back sharply on its size and scope.
- All levels of government should prune legal, regulatory and professional thickets.
- Politicians should define our challenges bluntly and stress duties over rights.
- Require community teamwork to solve local problems without federal government intervention.
- Treat children as the nation’s highest priority.
- Tell future elders they will need to be more self-sufficient, save more, and expect fewer entitlements.
- Shift government pension plans from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans.
- Begin to trim Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits.
- Raise the national savings rate, reduce consumption and work towards federal budget surpluses.
- Expect the worst, conserve our forces, and be prepared for an epic struggle down the road.
I would reckon we went 0 for 11 on the preparation front. We took the exact opposite course in most cases. Each generation has their own crosses to bear. No one will escape the bitter gale force winds of this Crisis. Strauss and Howe must have had a crystal ball looking fifteen years into the future when they made this supposition:
“The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millenials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.”
Thus far the older generations have refused to yield. They demand promises made be promises kept. The Boomers did not save enough to sustain themselves during their retirement. Many are entirely reliant upon Social Security and Medicare as their only savings and health insurance. Generation X is caught between aging parents and indebted jobless children. The Millenials are saddled with $1 trillion of student loan debt and few decent job opportunities. In prior Fourth Turnings the Prophet generation led and the Hero generation followed, doing the heavy lifting. This dynamic is yet to be realized during this Crisis. Maybe the regeneracy event will create this dynamic.
That event will likely be triggered by another debt crisis. Rogoff and Reinhart studied 44 countries over 200 years and concluded that once government debt exceeded 90% of GDP economic growth slowed and the likelihood of disaster rose dramatically.
“Those who remain unconvinced that rising debt levels pose a risk to growth should ask themselves why, historically, levels of debt of more than 90% of GDP are relatively rare and those exceeding 120% are extremely rare. Is it because generations of politicians failed to realize that they could have kept spending without risk? Or, more likely, is it because at some point, even advanced economies hit a ceiling where the pressure of rising borrowing costs forces policy makers to increase tax rates and cut government spending, sometimes precipitously, and sometimes in conjunction with inflation and financial repression (which is also a tax)? Historical experience and early examination of new data suggest the need to be cautious about surrendering to “this-time-is-different” syndrome and decreeing that surging government debt isn’t as significant a problem in the present as it was in the past.”
On this date the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 102%. Our debt accumulation is on automatic pilot and the national GDP is incapable of growing above 3%. Anyone with the most basic math skills (this excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC bimbo anchors, and Bernanke) can determine the ratio will pass 120% in 2015. This doesn’t even include the Fannie, Freddie, and Student Loan debt that are guaranteed by the Federal government, along with trillions of unfunded social program liabilities and state and local debts. In reality the true debt obligations of this country exceed 500% of GDP, as no politician plans to willingly renege on Medicare and Social Security promises made to voters who would boot them if they voted to cut these entitlements.
The linear thinking deniers of reality (Krugman) will use Japan as their example of a country whose debt ratio is above 200%, without disastrous consequences. I guess a 22 year recession is not considered disastrous. Japan has been able to fund themselves internally because their citizens had a 15% savings rate in and they have run gigantic trade surpluses for decades. That game is over and they will hit the wall in the near future. The savings rate in the U.S. is 3.7% and we run $550 billion trade deficits, or 3.7% of GDP. The United States has no advantages other than the U.S. dollar currently being regarded as the worldwide reserve currency. We are hanging our hat on being the best looking horse in the glue factory.
The cracks in the façade are already painfully visible. The U.S. ran a $1.4 trillion deficit in 2009; $1.3 trillion in 2010; and $1.3 trillion in 2011. In the chart below you can see foreigners’ appetite for U.S. debt since 2007 has plunged. Maybe it has something to do with getting a negative real return by investing in U.S. Treasuries paying 2%. Maybe it has something to do with Ben Bernanke attempting to inflate away our debt burden. Maybe it has something to do with Congress and the President accelerating spending and creating massive deficits for as far as the eye can see. Maybe they are losing trust and confidence in the American Empire.
In the last three years we have run $4 trillion in deficits and foreigners have only funded $1.4 trillion of that debt. That means someone else had to buy $2.6 trillion of our long term Treasuries. Some of it was funded by little old ladies and pension funds that are setting themselves up for enormous losses. The vast swath was purchased by Ben Bernanke with his QE for eternity programs. As foreigners rationally reduce their Treasury holdings and we continue to run $1.3 trillion deficits, Bernanke must keep buying the debt. This cycle will continue until we reach our Minsky Moment, then Strauss & Howe’s forecast will be realized:
“This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Who will buy our debt in the coming months and years? Europe is saturated with debt and doesn’t have the means to purchase our debt. Japan is a train wreck waiting to happen. China’s customers aren’t buying their crap, so their economic miracle is about to go in reverse. The Federal Reserve cannot buy $1 trillion of Treasury bonds per year forever without creating more speculative bubbles and raging inflation in the things people need to live. The Minsky Moment will be the point when the U.S. Treasury begins having funding problems due to the spiraling debt incurred in financing perpetual government deficits. At this point no buyer will be found to bid at 2% to 3% yields for U.S. Treasuries; consequently, a major sell-off will ensue leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market clearing asset prices and a sharp drop in market liquidity. In layman terms that means – the shit will hit the fan. The Federal Reserve and Treasury will be caught in their own web of lies. The only way to attract buyers will be to dramatically increase interest rates. Doing this in a country up to its eyeballs in debt will be suicide. We will abruptly know how it feels to be Greek.
Linear thinkers like Krugman and most of the mainstream media opinion leaders can’t fathom the possibility of a complete collapse of our economic system. Most of their little models and economic data points don’t even go back to the last Fourth Turning period. They make projections about a housing recovery based on historical data that starts in 1962. Housing sales linger at historical lows with mortgage rates at 4%. The entire housing market would cave in if mortgage rates reached 6%, where they were in 2008. The forty year average mortgage rate has been 9%. Everything about our economic system is abnormal. Even reversion to the mean would be disastrous. The Minsky Moment headed our way will not be a single uncorrelated event. The entire financial world is hopelessly entangled by the $700 trillion of derivatives that ensure mass destruction if one of the dominoes falls. This is the reason an otherwise inconsequential country like Greece had to be “saved”.
Everyone knows Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are broke. One or more will eventually default on their debt. It is highly likely that a butterfly will flap its wings in Europe and cause a hurricane in the U.S. The default will spark a worldwide contagion as trust in a system of false promises disintegrates. China’s already crumbling real estate market will implode. As interest rates soar and stock markets plunge, global tensions will intensify. Continued oil supply constraints will be the cherry on top. Based on historical precedent, this is likely to strike before 2014 arrives. The wealth destruction and pain will be so intense a regeneracy will be at hand. Our very survival will feel at stake.
“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
And here is the rub for those who argue for less government intervention in our lives. Which leaders will lead and who will follow? The actual events do not matter as much as how the people react to the events. Fourth Turnings are always chaotic and tumultuous. In the frenzied period during the next leg down, people will demand order. They will call for the government to do something. Obama or Romney will use the fear and uncertainty to assume more power over our lives. Executive orders, new legislation, and another stripping of our liberties will be attempted. How the generational cohorts react to these deeds will determine what happens next. There are 97 million Millenials, 83 million Generation X and 73 million Boomers. The Boomers hold most of the positions of power, but their credibility as leaders has been damaged by their actions over the last two decades.
How the Millenials react to Boomer commands will determine the course of this Fourth Turning. The great devaluation will provide our leaders the opportunity to address the structural imbalances that haunt our nation. They could force Wall Street bankers, shareholders and bondholders assume their losses. They could rewrite the social contract with all generations, balancing the needs of elders with the futures of our youth. They could dramatically scale back the military industrial complex. They could completely scrap the ridiculous tax code and shift from taxing income to taxing consumption. They could revamp our political system and remove money from the political process. They could choose to balance budgets and reduce the size of government. They could ask for proportional sacrifice from everyone in order to keep this ship from sinking. If you believe this will happen, I have nice home near an Iranian nuclear power plant I’d like to sell you.
The regeneracy does not mean the actions taken by our leaders will be wise, well thought out, rational or beneficial to all people. Many believe the actions taken by Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt during the previous Fourth Turning Crisis periods were detrimental, foolish, and enhanced the power of the state at the expense of liberty for the people. The leader when the regeneracy events strike is more likely to respond with more government control as the solution. He will invoke executive orders giving government control over important industries and crucial institutions. The government politician leaders will pick the winners and losers, with their cronies and contributors winning again. Dissent will not be acceptable. The NDAA will be invoked to imprison those who disagree with the mandates handed down by those in power. Congress would pass SOPA and lock down the internet and shutdown any websites they consider dangerous to their central authority. Lastly, with the biggest and baddest military machine on earth, the leader will attempt to rally the masses and distract them from our dire economic situation by seeking an external threat to confront. It just so happens that China is also in the midst of their own Fourth Turning. History has shown that armed confrontation is likely around the climax of the Crisis:
“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
No one knows the exact events that will mark this Crisis period in our history. But there is no turning back. We’ve entered the Winter season and the beautiful calm days of autumn are long past. Nothing but turmoil, bitterness and sacrifice lie ahead. We entered this Winter of our discontent unprepared like the grasshopper in the fable. This has insured this Crisis will be far worse than it needed to be. The grasshoppers want solutions and easy answers to problems created over decades of ignorance, sloth, greed and stupidity. It’s too late. There are no easy answers and the solutions are all painful and bitter. This is not some theoretical exercise. This is the reality of our situation. I have three teenage sons and their futures depend on the outcome of this Crisis. I will do whatever it takes to support them. I will not allow them to be cannon fodder in some war for oil in the Middle East. If their future requires me to oppose a tyrannical government, so be it. If their future requires me to give up my Social Security and Medicare security blanket, so be it. If I have to die so they may live, so be it. There are no guarantees in this life. We get about 80 years on this planet to make a difference. The choices we make in the next few years will matter. Are you ready? I am.
“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Click here to read: PART ONE or PART TWO
spot on! loved the book the fourth turning and your synopsis here is excelllent! (I wish the subject matter was brighter but this is where we find ourselves).
I too am ready. (age 48) I hope!
j conradson
I’m also 48 years old. Bring it on.
“Today is a good day to die.”
Old Lodge Skins – Little Big Man
Just great. Is this your first three part series?
Old Buck
I did a 5 part series based on Clint Eastwood movies last year.
All three parts of this piece are tremendous. We are on the edge of the cliff. As a Gen X nomad, I am preparing myself for what is on the horizon. We are, in fact, in desperate times. There needs to be a sense of urgency in the people for them to survive. Until we can open enough eyes, the sheep will continue to stay in the pasture and graze. It is each of our responsibility, nay, our duty, to help our brothers and sisters cast off the chains of debt bondage. The bankers, (pronounced: Corporate whore slave traders) especially JP Morgan and HSBC, are financial terrorists that need to be black bagged and sent to gitmo. Only physical silver, a hearty home garden, and a solid local network will keep us alive during the coming paper ponzi scheme’s mathematically certain collapse. Thanks for posting this great information, and stop by and see us for like-minded information and commentary.
Stack faster.
RGD
Your articles leave my wheels a turnin’. First they depress me with the succinctly laid out destruction that awaits us in the next decade (yes, I know I’m being optimistic).
Then they fill me with a sad hope and feeling of camaraderie.
At least I am not alone in my thinking.
At least my eyes are open.
At least I am trying to “prepare” as best I can.
At least I now feel blessed by everyday that I wake up and things remain “normal.”
And I’m blessed to still be able to read the thought-provoking articles.
Because at the rate the government is going, it isn’t going to be long before most things on my list end.
Thanks Jim.
Two A+ articles followed by a C. Short of a few Libertarians, I don’t know of any Americans who think Lincoln is anything short of a savior. “He saved the Union and abolished slavery.” To argue that a State does not have the right to preserve itself is simply silly. The other major flaw in this article is the failure to even mention the bloated military industrial congressional complex. I for one am not interested in giving up a penny of my earned benefits until I see some shared sacrifice. You are certainly not going to convince anyone else unless you can give point to cuts for EVERYONE. Tax cuts for the rich, increased defense spending and reductions in Social Security is a non starter for most.
Overall, between the 3 articles, I’ll give you a solid B+.
weinerdog
I really don’t care what grade you give me. Your comprehension skills get a D as I DID say the military industrial complex should be cut.
I need to attract brighter readers.
Admin: These works are nothing short of BADASS!
It’s going to be interesting, for certain…. and folks like the Weiner will find a newfound misery if they resist the flow of the season.
Trust must be restored in an institution…. and that means purging the corrupt and untrustworthy. Soundbites and hot-buttons must give way to leveling with the citizenry and rolling up our sleeves.
The metaphorical silos are empty and there is no choice but to forage for survival.
Survival. It may well take on it’s long forgotten meaning and that’s when what we see in the mirror becomes friend or foe.
Again… outstanding. Love it.
Weiner dog just before being devoured by the much brighter TBP membership.
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Bingo: weinerdog43
” To argue that a State does not have the right to preserve itself is simply silly.”
That is the exact argument they are going to use when TPTB take away all your freedoms while shutting down the net and making slaves of us all.
A tour de force, Admin! BRAVO
” To argue that a State does not have the right to preserve itself is simply silly.”
There is a compelling document that starts out: “When, in the course of human events…” Some sort of declaration concerning the right of the people to remake, retake or replace the government as needed. I believe it has jusrisdiction in these here parts!
Fourth Turnings are always chaotic and tumultuous. In the frenzied period during the next leg down, people will demand order. They will call for the government to do something. Obama or Romney will use the fear and uncertainty to assume more power over our lives.
Damn good read, Jim.
FWIW , the last three regeneracies were no friend to indivdual liberty and I suspect neither will the next be.
Personally I think Truman did more to expand the Global Police State -via fearmongering – than FDR. If FDR began the regeneracy then Truman was the pink hitter who slammed it home,
http://www.lewrockwell.com/raico/raico20.html
Good read on Truman here:
‘World-Conquest’ Red Alert
Nineteen forty-eight was a decisive year in the cold war. There was great reluctance in the conservative Eightieth Congress to comply with Truman’s program, which included funding for the European Recovery Act (Marshall Plan), resumption of the draft, and Universal Military Training (UMT). To deal with this resistance, the administration concocted the war scare of 1948.
The first pretext came in February, with the so-called Communist coup in Czechoslovakia. But Czechoslovakia, for all intents and purposes, was already a Soviet satellite. Having led the Czechs in the “ethnic cleansing” of 3.5 million Sudeten Germans, the Communists enjoyed great popularity. In the general elections, they won 38 percent of the vote, constituting by far the largest single party. The American ambassador reported to Washington that Communist consolidation of power in early 1948 was the logical outgrowth of the Czech-Soviet military alliance dating back to 1943. George Marshall himself, in private, stated that “as far as international affairs are concerned,” the formal Communist assumption of power made no difference: it would merely “crystallize and confirm for the future previous Czech policy.”25 Still, the Communist “coup” was painted as a great leap forward in Stalin’s plan for “world conquest.”
Then, on March 5, came the shocking letter from General Lucius Clay, U.S. military governor in Germany, to General Stephen J. Chamberlin, head of Army Intelligence, in which Clay revealed his foreboding that war “may come with dramatic suddenness.” Years later, when Clay’s biographer asked him why, if he sensed an impending war, this was the only reference he ever made to it, he replied:
General Chamberlin . . . told me that the Army was having trouble getting the draft reinstituted and they needed a strong message from me that they could use in congressional testimony. So I wrote this cable.26
On March 11, Marshall solemnly warned in a public address that: “The world is in the midst of a great crisis.” Averell Harriman asserted:
There are aggressive forces in the world coming from the Soviet Union which are just as destructive as Hitler was, and I think are a greater menace than Hitler was.27
And so Harriman laid down the Hitler card, which was to become the master trump in the globalist propaganda hand for the next half-century and most likely for centuries to come.
Taft, campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination, was angered by the war hysteria drummed up by the administration:
I know of no indication of Russian intention to undertake military aggression beyond the sphere of influence that was originally assigned to them [at Yalta]. The situation in Czechoslovakia was indeed a tragic one, but Russian influence has predominated there since the end of the war.
Taft tried to introduce a note of sanity: “If President Truman and General Marshall have any private intelligence” regarding imminent war, “they ought to tell the American people about it.” Otherwise, we should proceed on “the basis of peace.”28
In reality, the administration had no such “private intelligence,” hence the need to stage-manage Clay’s letter. On the contrary, Colonel Robert B. Landry, Truman’s air aide, reported that in their zone in eastern Germany, the Russians had dismantled hundreds of miles of railroad track and shipped it home – in other words, they had torn up the very railroads required for any Soviet attack on western Europe.29 Field Marshal Montgomery, after a trip to Russia in 1947, wrote to General Eisenhower: “The Soviet Union is very, very tired. Devastation in Russia is appalling, and the country is in no fit state to go to war.”30 Today it would be very difficult to find any scholar willing to subscribe to Truman’s frenzied vision of a Soviet Union about to set off to conquer the world. As John Lewis Gaddis wrote:
Stalin is now seen as a cagey but insecure opportunist, taking advantage of such tactical opportunities as arose to expand Soviet influence, but without any long-term strategy for or even very much interest in promoting the spread of communism beyond the Soviet sphere.31
The nonexistence of Soviet plans to launch an attack on Europe holds for the entire cold war period. One scholar in the field concludes:
despite the fact that the Russian archives have yielded ample evidence of Soviet perfidy and egregious behavior in many other spheres, nothing has turned up to support the idea that the Soviet leadership at any time actually planned to start World War III and send the “Russian hordes” westward.32
So why the war scare in 1948? In a 1976 interview, looking back on this period, Air Force Brigadier General Robert C. Richardson, who served at NATO headquarters in the early 1950s, candidly admitted:
there was no question about it, that [Soviet] threat that we were planning against was way overrated and intentionally overrated, because there was the problem of reorienting the [U.S.] demobilization . . . [Washington] made this nine-foot-tall threat out there. And for years and years it stuck. I mean, it was almost immovable.33
Yet, anyone who doubted the wisdom of the administration’s militaristic policy was targeted for venomous smears. According to Truman, Republicans who opposed his universal crusade were “Kremlin assets,” the sort of traitors who would shoot “our soldiers in the back in a hot war,” a good example of Truman’s acclaimed “plain speaking.”34,35 Averell Harriman charged that Taft was simply helping Stalin carry out his aims. The New York Times and the rest of the establishment press echoed the slanders. Amusingly, Republican critics of the war hysteria were labeled pro-Soviet even by journals like The New Republic and The Nation, which had functioned as apologists for Stalin’s terror-regime for years.
In the end, the part of Truman’s legacy with the greatest potential for harm is NATO. Allegedly created in response to a (nonexistent) Soviet threat to overrun Europe, it has already outlived the Soviet Union and European communism by a decade. At the beginning of the new century, there is no possibility that this entrenched military and civilian bureaucratic apparatus will simply fade away. When did such a huge collection of functionaries ever surrender their lucrative, tax-funded positions without a revolution?
In the course of NATO’s aggression against Yugoslavia – illegal, according to the U.S. Constitution, the Charter of the United Nations, and NATO’s own charter – its mission has been “redefined.” No longer merely a defensive alliance (against whom?), it will now roam the world, a law unto itself, perpetually “in search of monsters to destroy.” In 1951, General Eisenhower, then supreme Allied commander in Europe, stated: “If in ten years time, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.”81 A growing threat to the independence, the well-being, and the very lives of the peoples of the world, NATO may turn out in the end to have been Truman’s greatest failure.
There are also episodes in Truman’s presidency that have been forgotten in the rush to certify him as a “near-great” but that should not go unmentioned. Among the more notable ones:
wiener dog…go here…come back when you know from whence you speak.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/dilorenzo/dilorenzo-arch.html
I know, I know… reading is hard…but give it a shot…you may learn something.
Libertarians are not like the average America dumb ass consumer slurping up the any and all BS spewed by state sponsored historians like pigs at a slop festival.
Anon is that you Flash gotta be
BTW weenie D…scroll down the Lorenzo archives or the lincoln articles or just get the book.
And don’t forget to click on Amazon via The Burning Platform.
@sensetti
Damn you made me!
LOl…forgot to post an ID.
55 Fourth Turning books were bought in the last two days by readers. At least a few more people will be prepared.
A very good understanding of current events
Thanks for taking the time ti think about and write these very important articles.
You wrote about many obligations, which are not now reflected as liabilities on the balance sheet, such as future obligations for Social Security and Medicare.
The FASAB is the accounting advisor for the federal government.
I find it interesting how the FASAB views these “obligations.”
From a paper entitled “Accounting for Social Insurance, Revised, Nov., 2008:”
Page 35 “Social insurance benefits are not guaranteed or contractual, or advance funded, or promised. Social insurance benefits are not part of an exchange but rather are a welfare program and/or an annual general fund like Medicaid and defense – which are as likely as social insurance but for which early accrual is not proposed.
http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/socialins_exposurefinal.pdf.
Don Levit
Don
The Federal Government could legislate Medicare and Social Security out of existence today. That is why the unfunded liabilities aren’t counted as debt. Are we more likely to stiff the Chinese or our elderly? The Medicare & SS liabilities are debt.
Can i ask Strauss & Howe to do some research regarding Dajjal (Antichrist) and the Islamic view of Gog and Magog in the modern world by Imran N Hosein please.
The above is relevant and can possibly aid your understanding further as we believe that Gold and Silver is Money. The Prophet has told us this and we believe paper money is fraudelent and we understand that paper money will soon be replaced with a new currency . When the Dollar collapses, it wil take down all of paper money with it.
Our belief is that Dajjal will live on earth fo 40 days. 1 day like a Year, 1 day like a month and 1 day like a week. The rest of his days will be like our days. When Dajjal was in 1 day like a Year, he was based in Britain and the British empire bacame the super power of the time. When Dajjal was in 1 day like a month, America became the super power of the time. Note that the second day of Dajjal is shorter than his first. We believe that Dajjal is now in transition to his third day like a week. That means that the current super power must give way to the new super power which we believe is Israel. But when Israel is the Super power, it will be for a shorter time than America. When Britain was the super power, the Sterling was the standard, then when America is the Super power, the Dollar is the standard. The third super power will have a Standard which we believe must be gold.
“Also based on history, it is likely to occur by the end of 2013.”
Nope. November 7, 2012. As soon as Al, Jesse and Benjamin can get the peeps on to the streets.
You were on my mind last night, admin, when I told my Poli sci class that we had 10-15 years of hard road before us. This effort meets the high standards of its’ predecessors – no easy feat.
Something will tell us that we’ve reached the regeneracy. Lincoln may have been the ‘decider’ of this 4T, but Julia Ward Howe was its’ muse – ‘The Battle Hymn of the Republic.’ That song, based on ‘John Brown’s Body’ yet so different in tone, really marked the regeneracy’s taking place, soul by soul, among all who sung it. (BTW, it’s been my favorite song since early childhood.)
I don’t know if the comparison is very good, but going from ‘Brother, can you Spare a dime?” to ‘Happy Days are Here Again,’ or perhaps something by the G.I. sweetheart Andrews sisters might mark the same divide in the last 4T.
What it will be for ours remains unclear, but readers of your words will likely recognize it when they see or hear it.
ssgconway
How do your students react when you tell them about a 10 to 15 year hard road?
Aministrator please comment on the below
We have also been told in the Quran, that God will destroy every town and every city and that one of the signs of the last day is the Smoke.
The relevance of the above to today is that there is a divide between the western world governments in one side and Russia, China and the Islamic world on the other. We have been told by the Prophet that at the end times, (which we believe we are in,) the muslims will make a alliance with Ar-Rum which when translated is the eastern orthodox christians i.e Russia and it’s allies. The prophecy goes further to explain that this alliance will be forged to defeat a common enemy. i think it is very clear who Russia’s enemy are. When this war takes place, it will be a nuclear war in which thousands of nuclear bombs will be set off. If one can create an enormous mushroom cloud, then what will thousands look like, SMOKE!!!
The guidance in the Quran is to leave the towns and citties and to move to remote countrysides where real food can be grown, where water is not polluted, where children can grow to be real men and women, with real values and ethics and faith.
Abdul
I know nothing about the Quran. I only comment on things I have knowledge about.
Does this look like de-leveraging? Our Minsky Moment approaches.
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I’m glad you’re ready, Admin. At the end of every cycle of loss/grief comes acceptance. It sounds like you have accepted whatever is coming. It’s great, because once you can accept the worst thing that can happen (death), you can accept everything else. Then you aren’t a victim (if you’re prepared that is), the depression finally lessens, and you accept. It’s a good place to be. Most Americans haven’t even figured out they what might be coming; blissfully unaware, soon to be caught in the storm.
There are so many plates spinning right now, all about to fall, or one falling causing the rest to fall, it’s really amusing. Bernake and the ECB are running around frantically trying to keep all the plates spinning, as Western economies watch, hoping to God they don’t start falling. But, alas, they will all fall down. Get prepared, NOW, if you haven’t already. Do whatever you have to do to get prepared. Don’t be a victim.
Some more things to consider:
“As long as we are concerned about whether the Fed is going to reappear every six or ten months as the lender of last resort to buffer this sort of slow motion train wreck we’ve got, we are going to be under the thumb of the Fed,” says Charlie Smith, the chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital. “The money creation that we see every six months is really the only thing propping up the world economies right now.”
“So we’re talking about a banking system that is nearly four times that of the US ($46 trillion vs. $12 trillion) with at least twice the amount of leverage (26 to 1 for the EU vs. 13 to 1 for the US), and a Central Bank that has stuffed its balance sheet with loads of garbage debts, giving it a leverage level of 36 to 1.
As bad as the above points may be, they don’t even come close to describing the REAL situation in Europe. Case in point, regarding leverage levels, PIMCO’s Co-CIO Mohammad El-Erian (one of the most connected insiders in the financial elite) recently noted that French banks (not Greece or Spain) currently have 1-1.5% capital relative to their assets, putting them at leverage levels of nearly 100-to-1.”
… if the Fed were to announce a new policy it would have to be MASSIVE, as in more than $2 trillion in scope. Remember, the $600 billion spent during QE 2 barely bought three months of improved economic data in the US and that was a pre-emptive move by the Fed (the system wasn’t collapsing at the time).
“So given that the Fed will only be able to announce a large scale program in reaction to a Crisis, whatever it did announce would have to be ENORMOUS, a kind of shock and awe, attempt to rein in the markets.
Moreover, it would literally be THE LAST QE the Fed could hope to ever announce as political outrage from the ensuing Dollar collapse and inflationary pressures would likely see the open riots and/or the Fed dismantled (this has happened twice before in the US’s history).
“In simple terms, the Fed’s hands are tied until a huge Crisis hits. And then, if the Fed acts it’s going to have to go “all in” with a massive program. If it does, we will still experience a Crisis, as the Dollar would collapse pushing inflation through the roof as well as interest rates (which in turn would destroy the banks as well as the US economy).
” In simple terms, this time around, when Europe goes down (and it will) it’s going to be bigger than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. And this time around, the world Central Banks are already leveraged to the hilt having spent virtually all of their dry powder propping up the markets for the last four years.”
Admin, my students, generally get it. They’re adults returning to school for degree completion. They’re living with job loss, adult children at home, foreclosure problems and all of the rest. No one challenged me on it, at any rate, and they are generally prone to speak their minds.
City Council gets it, too. Most of my family & close friends get it. It’s only at levels above my pay grade that i suspect that folks don’t get it, perhaps because they’re insulated from the worst of it.
Abdul commenting about the Quran
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Like we don’t already have enough shit to worry about.
Ouch! I apologize for missing your reference to cutting the military industrial complex. My fault. It’s sometimes hard to find the pearl amidst the, how shall we say…excess.
Regardless, Lincoln was a great man and a great president. While ‘many’ may believe that Lincoln’s and Roosevelt’s actions were wrong, I’d wager ‘most’ would disagree. Sorry, take it up with the rest of the country, not me. Tom DiLorenxo is a crackpot. He has been refuted time again, not the least by Hillsdale College’s own professor Krannawiter.
I’m sorry for accidentally offering a critique outside of the Libertarian bubble. If you wish to persuade others not in the bubble, I suggest you develop a thicker skin. Thanks and have a good day.
Administator, isn’t Knowledge something that we should all strive to seek
AWD – With the upmost of respect, it doesnt matter that we all know that Europe and America will go down. The key is understanding who will take over and i have made mention just previously that it will be Israel who takes over with a Gold standard, but knowing this is still not enough to protect ourselves. If you read the Quran you will see that the God has told mankind that at this moment in time, it is better for us to leave the town and cities and move to remote places of the world like remote countrysides as there is a war coming that will reduce the world population drastically. You may not have knowledge of this, so all that i am advising is that we all strive to gain more knowledge in this matter to help protect ourselves and our families from a threat that is beyond our control. But muslims believe that all protection can only come from God no matter how well we have prapared, no matter how many prophecies we have knowledge of and that come to be.
Jim, you Ossian, you. I was waiting to read all three before commenting… and I see you’ve outdone yourself this time. No wonder Howe was so impressed by you. You have a gift for putting everything in perspective.
Agree with you on the “I’m ready, bring it.” statement. I think our generation (Gen X) is going to trade our “Whatever” motto for just that… “Bring it.” But AWD is right… reaching that point is strangely invigorating.
Jim– I thought your articles were so important that I posted all three on my campaign website at http://www.rickwilliamsforsenate.com. Extremely well written; concise; on point, every step of the way.
So what’s the “solution”? Simple, actually. We run for office. Who cares if you’ve never run before? What difference does it make that you’re not an incumbent? Congress has an approval rating of 10%– that tells you all you need to know.
I’m from the Ron Paul community, but my US Senate team includes several “mainstream” advisors and friends. They all tell me the same thing– don’t hold back; don’t mince words; be as radical about these economic issues as you can possibly be. My “mainstream” advisors see the same thing I do– that the American people are genuinely searching for something new, and different, and better than what we’ve seen in the past. I call myself the “radical conservative” candidate; it’s my favorite choice of words (as compared to libertarian, or Ron Paul Republican, or any of the alternative phrases). A radical conservative says: CUT SPENDING; STOP THE COUNTERFEITING; BRING OUR GOVERNMENT MONSTROSITIES UNDER CONTROL. And most of all, take charge of our money. There can be no economic recovery without those steps.
This economic platform is the model– so join us. Put yourself forward . . . run!
Rick
If we could elect 550 people like you, Ron Paul and Rand Paul I’d feel much more confident about the next 15 years.
I urge people to make a contribution to Rick’s campaign.
Give us a link to your website.
Thinker
This started out as one article and just kept growing. I only broke it into three because most people don’t have the time to read an 8,500 word article.
I sent links to the three parts to Neil. I’d love for him to comment on TBP, but he is a very busy guy.
Worldwide financial system. What could possibly go wrong?
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That post is one of the best, most spot-on summaries I’ve read in 3 years of following financial reality blogs. You ABSOLUTLELY nailed it! I’m 52 and trying to hang on to what I’ve got and help my two young adult children. How the hell do you broach this subject with kids? They think you’re a lunatic. Anyway, it will take many like-minded believers in liberty to weather the shit-storm that’s approaching. Hopefully, when the maelstrom reaches it’s zenith, we’ll still be able to communicate like this. It may be all that saves us. Keep on keeping’ on, my brother!
Real American – The Quran is a book which makes us believe in Jesus and his return without needing the Christians to convince us. We believe all the Prophets to be righteous again without being persuaded by the Christians.
The Quran makes mention of many scientific facts which 1400 years ago could not have been known. It is only by recent advancement in technology that we have come to know these scientific facts which validitate the Quran to be from none other than God.
The Quran makes mention of certain prophecies around the middle east , especially the Arab Sping which really will be an Arab Slaughter. Again these things have been mentioned in the Quran, so when this one comes true i.e a middle eastern war which results in Arabs being slaughtered. The beginings of which will start from a war with Iran and Pakistan. So when these things come to be, and you are still around, all i ask you to do is take a closer look at what the God through the Quran is telling mankind to do. Is that fair?
quinn~
i feel repetitive and redundant whenever i post to praise or complement your long pieces. so i sometimes skip it. but this series is really great, my highest praise and complements.
i keep trying to wedge 9/11 into a workable fourth turning framework. i can’t, and i feel better that neil howe has trouble analyzing the attacks and the events since neatly as a crisis-regeneracy moment.
that’s ok. history rhymes, it doesn’t replicate. more than 9/11 being a moment of existential crisis (which is just silly, considering 3000 dead out of a population of 300,000,000 citizens, less than 0.001%), it may ultimately be seen as something else. (like a national crazed freakout, with the panicked masses, suffering from temporary insanity calmed by the assurance of TBTB, ‘don’t worry your pretty little heads, just go shopping, here’s some low interest rates, we’ll handle this with a couple wars and the patriot acts).
and the real fun still awaits us.
a nit to pick. only because it gets repeated so often that it is a mistake deeply wedged into our history. FDR did not confiscate all the gold in the country. in fact, the authorities confiscated a tiny fraction of the privately held gold. FDR did create the legal authority to confiscate virtually all the gold in the country–and that in itself is very important, indeed it fulfilled the intended function and effect–but that legal authority was never fully exercised. that authority was barely exercised, and almost all gold in private possession was kept, or voluntarily surrendered. i have no clue the exact amounts seized, surrendered or maintained in people’s mattresses; there are anecdotes of safe deposit boxes being opened in the presence of treasury agents. but there is no record of systematic seizure or confiscation. and i assume such a thing would’ve been in the papers. just the oft-repeated canard that FDR confiscated all the gold, which did not occur.
howard in nyc
I value your insights and appreciate your support. I wish you would post more often.
You’re right about FDR. I should have said that he declared it illegal to own instead of saying he seized it all.
Rick Williams: I like your stuff, but it’s too late, man. Sorry.
Abdul: quoting the Quran around here isn’t going to get you very many friends, sorry to you also. Getting out of cities is obvious once you realize what is coming. The herd will be thinned the quickest and most efficiently in cities. And, of course, GOD is in charge, and always will be. I prefer people’s opinions than blind reliance on books and dogma.
Let’s face it. The debt is going to have to be written off, all of it. The losses accepted, all of ’em. The entitlements are going to have to end, all of ’em. We’re going to have to quit importing and buying Asian crap, all of it. We are going to have to produce/make everything we need in this country, all of it. Once that’s done, we can have a decent country and life again. Until that’s done, it’s going to be a shitstorm.
“I have three teenage sons and their futures depend on the outcome of this Crisis. I will do whatever it takes to support them. I will not allow them to be cannon fodder in some war for oil in the Middle East. If their future requires me to oppose a tyrannical government, so be it. If their future requires me to give up my Social Security and Medicare security blanket, so be it. If I have to die so they may live, so be it. There are no guarantees in this life. We get about 80 years on this planet to make a difference. The choices we make in the next few years will matter. Are you ready? I am.”
You and me both, brother. “Liberty, Honor and Survival” — the watchwords of the Nomad.
I don’t think we are anywhere near regeneracy, though, unless we have another 9/11-type event. But who knows, maybe if will be another financial meltdown.
I have difficulty believing that there will be the kind of concerted government action happening until both Congress and the Presidency are controlled by the same party, but I can’t see that happening until 2014 at the earliest. But all the pieces seem to be falling into place — yesterday or the day before the Supreme Court ok’d strip searches for any kind arrest.
Today I see a 77-year old guy in Greece killing himself and invoked WWII era resistance fighters as a call to arms for the young. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/syntagma-square-suicide-note-ends-call-young-greek-people-hang-traitors
We may see other cauldrons boil over before they do here.
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AWD – It is through the books and the scripture that God communicates to us and advises us i.e do not commit murder, do not commit rape, do not deal in usury etc.. If we don’t live within a God given set of rules, morals and ethics, then we fall into a trap of creating our own rules i.e Dealing in usury is ok as it’s only business. Look at the mess the world is in by not listening to Gods command regarding usury. We are at the brink of economic destruction, our hard earned money/assetts are on the brink of being massively devalued. This is daylight robbery by the State. If we listened to God and just used Gold and Silver as money then this problem would not have occurred.
Excellent articles. I have 4th Turning on order so forgive my ignorance (recently found this site). From what little I know the book documents how the 4 turnings cycle over and over again. Does the book discuss what appears to be an accumulating lose of rights with each cycle. Each cycle we lose more rights. Is there “end” cycle where the accumulated lose of rights results in a police state or dictator?
Again, forgive my ignorance. If the answer is already in the book, just say, read the book.
Thanks
tator
Strauss & Howe clearly point out that government has increased their power during every Fourth Turning. They don’t judge whether that is good or bad. They leave that up to the reader.
Thanks Admin. My book should arrive Friday
What I find fascinating about this series is that it’s the first time I have seen the Fourth Turning explained without a multitude of the clueless showing up in the comments section to explain how totally wrong the book/theory is.
I first read the book a year or so after it came out and I KNEW it was going to be a blueprint for the future – it was such a simple theory to understand it had to be correct. Then came 9-11, the wars, the housing crash, the 2008 crash etc.
Keep in mind the catalyst is an event or EVENTS that cause the social mood to change. 9-11 in my mind was absolutely the start of the catalyst – I turned on the TV that day and it was completely clear to me the book / theory was vindicated. You can trace so much back to 911 – the Patriot Act, the Fed’s pumping up the housing bubble etc.
As for the regeneracy – I think it important only in the sense that at that point in time, the great herd has decided who they will follow over the cliff – last time around it was FDR and he led us into WWII.
This time around I think the 2016 election is going to be the decision point as it is quite clear that both Romney and Obama are nothing more than a continuation of the same stupidity and corruption that the sheep have voted into office for decades now.
In 2016 I think we get a zealot as a ‘leader’ and shortly after that we get WW3. By 2017 the economy will be in shambles and the resource conflicts will be in full swing. If we are truly unlucky we get an internal Civil War on top of that – certainly the complete lack of common ground or sane discourse between those who swallow the propaganda of the Left/Right idiocy shows how close we are to that conflict as well.
For those interested, Peter Savich wrote a great series of 4T analyses that focuses on another aspect of conflict : The People Vs The Corporations :
http://petersavich.com/Duck/Analysis/PVC/Fourth%20Turning/ftprint.php
In any case, we are in for a wild wild decade and the 4T has been batting 1000 in predicting the general outline of what we can come to expect.
Thanks again for being one of the few writers on the internet who ‘GET’ the Fourth Turning and how very crucial it is to present reality.
Admin,
Great read, I learned a lot. I’ve been reading sites such as this for the last 4 years. I try to discuss what I’ve learned, very few listen.
I could go on and on about many things, but lets get to it. People say get prepared. That does not really help me. Yes yes, mental prep is important, VERY..
It just seems I need to do more, but I can’t envision what will happen.
Do I store food, or do the feds take it.
Some say buy ammo, or will they take it and lock me up.
Some say move to the country, who has the money, very few.
Some say buy silver, or will the fed take it.
Some say take our money out of the bank, to prepare for the bank holiday. Why? The money will just be worthless?
Will there be UN troops on our soil? If so, what do I do?
Will they be putting people in camps, as an example? I don’t want to go.
There must be something I can do to get ready, but since I don’t know how it will unfold, it is very hard to prepare for.
I may be 52, but I’m not a quitter. In college, many years ago, I wrestled for ISU. I still think of myself as this mind set. To win the match, I had to prepare by very HARD work, or you lose!
I don’t want to be caught unprepared. What can a man do to survive this?
Mombo
Jim
Rick already posted the link to his website. Anyway, here it is;
http://www.rickwilliamsforsenate.com.
Abdul
Come on. Take your poorly disguised Muslim proselytizing somewhere else. You are ruining the thread. And, no one cares.
Now if you want to talk politics / economics that’s welcome. In your case, make your case that silver alone should be money. But don’t tell us it is because “Allah said so”. You’re not going to convert us or convince us. And did I mention …. no one cares?
Admin– per request here’s the link to my Senate website: http://www.rickwilliamsforsenate.com
AWD– I don’t agree that it’s too late. Our freedom moment is just beginning. Mises tells us that all leaders must abide by the will of their people, no matter the form of government or degree of tyranny involved. Our task is to lead as the peoples’ will moves to freedom. And that’s going to happen. People act in their own best interest– when freedom becomes the best way to proceed, freedom will be chosen.
“Rick Williams: I like your stuff, but it’s too late, man. Sorry.” —– AWD
Thanks for saying that. I wanted to also but I didn’t want to shit on his parade.
Judging only from his website, he seems like a very decent man. He’s a Ron Paul guy through and through and his views are dead nuts accurate. What’s not to like?
Well, he says —> “In all my campaign speeches and writings I emphasize two central points. First– I tell everyone I’ll reduce the federal budget by $1 trillion in my first year in office.” Alrighty, then!!! Him and what army? Seems a tad bit over the top to me.
Also, —> “Second– I say I won’t rest until I’ve ended our rotten to the core Federal Reserve System. Alrighty, then!!! I’m predicting a lot of insomnia for Mr. Williams. Color me skeptical.
Admin says he’d be more comfortable “If we could elect 550 people like you ..” This is true. It is also true that if frogs had wings they wouldn’t have to frag their asses on the ground.
You are correct. It IS to late.
It might be too late to fix the system from within, but it’s not too late to keep fighting the good fight and convincing more people to come over to the good side. I applaud people like Rick Williams and Mike Gular who are in the front lines fighting.
I keep reading how boomers need to forget about Social Security and Medicare, yet I never read what those people are supposed to do. If young and healthy people have “few decent job opportunities” is it really realistic for the old and infirm to think they’ll be able to find a job? What other options are there? Beg on the streets?
Nearing Retirement
Your Medicare and SS won’t be taken away. It’s the Millenial generation that is getting screwed. They won’t get a dime and we are handing them a $100 trillion bill.
@Nearing Retirement –
What did our elderly do before 1935 and WWII?
If not born rich, they either worked until they died and remained independent, or they were taken care of by their family, friends, neighbors and churches. “Retirement” was only for the rich and politicians.
I’m in my 40s and have known for a couple decades that the odds of social security being available to me is close to nil.
The reality is that this won’t be a choice, no matter our feelings about “fair” or what is “mine” or what is “owed to us.” Odds are growing by the day that our monetary system will cease to exist in its entirety. With it will go all those government promises and paychecks – or, like in Germany and Argentina, the checks continue but they become worth less than the paper printed on (or electronic debit/credit put into a savings account that may be charging more in fees than your checks are). With it will also go the entire middle class. This is what happens – and what Jim rails about – when a fiat monetary system implodes. The middle is impoverished, the “rich” become the “middle” (at a much reduced % of population), the poor are lucky to hang on and the government and their cronies benefit.
I really feel for people that have chosen to live their lives based on mathematical assumptions (pensions, SS) that were 100% completely and utterly outside the realm of possibility. It is a rude awakening to find out that there are many, many things you think are “yours,” but aren’t. They don’t exist. Truly never did.
I’m sorry. I really am.
I’m also happy that you are choosing to start the conversation you need to have with yourself concerning your future. This is the only way you can hope for any independent survival.
Thank you for posting, it’s nice to see more people participating.
Dear Mr. Nearing Retirement ,
Hope this answers your question.
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