The markets are attempting to rally on the “unexpectedly positive” retail sales numbers for April. The bullshit is getting so deep in this country, you have to wear hip boots. Even though I’m a trusting soul and know the MSM and our Wall Street economist “experts” will tell me what I need to know, I decided to go directly to the report. Here is a link in case you want the actual data:
http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Here are my observations about the “strong” retail sales:
- Through the beauty of seasonal adjustments the actual 2.7% decrease in retail sales in April versus March becomes a .09% increase, which is rounded up to .1% by the MSM. The government drones would never use seasonal adjustments to make numbers look better than they really are. Right?
- Even with seasonal adjustments, retail sales only went up $377 million. The subprime financing scam being run by the Obama owned Ally Financial and the other government subsidized Wall Street shysters resulted in a $783 million increase in auto sales. Therefore, retail sales excluding this government use of your tax dollars actually declined by $406 billion.
- The MSM is crowing about the lower gasoline sales which are benefitting the American consumer. If you look at the 4 month trend versus last year, you see that retail sales at gasoline stations is down 1.1% versus last year. Let me remind you that last year was the highest average price for gasoline in history, so a 1.1% decline is not exactly a windfall to the consumer. Do you see the MSM reporting the facts on this chart?
- The first four months of retail sales in 2013 have sucked. Overall, they are up 3.3%. Subtracting the government boosted auto sales and the increase is 2.5%. Even using the government manipulated CPI yields basically flat retail sales with 2012. Using a real inflation rate of 5% reveals that real retail sales are declining by 2.5% in the first four months of 2013.
- If there is a real housing recovery how could retail sales of furniture, electronics and building materials be languishing in the -0.7% to 3.6% range? How can general merchandise sales (Wal-Mart, Target) be 3.4% below last year?
The fact is that real retail sales are falling. The Obama tax increases and Obamacare insurance premium increases have sucked the life out of the consumer. Gas prices have risen 10 cents per gallon in the last two weeks. The busy driving season is coming. The Middle East is a powderkeg. Hurricane season isn’t far off. Companies are cutting the hours of their employees. The savings rate is already at 2.7%. Consumers are reducing credit card debt. There are 10,000 people per day turning 65. Sounds like a recipe for strong retail sale growth. Right?
Maybe a government drone economist could chime in and explain the extreme wide variation in seasonal adjustments over the last ten years. Shouldn’t seasonal adjustments for the same month be fairly consistent over time? Inquiring minds want to know.
Retail Sales Post Modest Beat Despite Ongoing Plunge In Gasoline Sales
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2013 08:45 -0400
In keeping with the now constant trend of baffle with BS, since everyone was expecting a weaker advance retail sales print, just like with the BLS report, it was virtually assured that the data would prove everyone wrong. Sure enough, moments ago the Census department announced that headline retail sales rose by 0.1% in April, from a downward revised -0.5% in March, beating expectations of a second decline in a row of -0.3%. Retail sales ex autos were in line with expectations at -0.1%, on expectations of a -0.2% print, but it was the sales number ex-autos and gas which surprised the most, rising 0.6% on expectations of a +0.3% increase, up from a -0.1% decline. Of note: gasoline stations saw a dramatic 4.7% drop in sales, following a 3.2% drop in March: are all US commuters now using Back to the Future type hoverboards or just driving to work in the Tesla Model S?
Retail sales fall because the middle class is tapped out.
The good news is the trade deficit shrinks.
Win-win?
No?
Ok.
Great retail sales! Meanwhile, in the real world things are collapsing. Detroit is a great preview of coming attractions for the rest of the country. Democrats have taxed and run the productive people out of town, and kept the locals in free shit for decades. Debt doesn’t matter, neither do unfunded union pension obligations, right? Like the Federal government, solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Somebody is going to get a haircut. Taxpayers no doubt.
Detroit May Run Out Of Cash Next Month
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2013
Another day, another US city on the brink of insolvency. This time it’s Detroit, whose recently appointed emergency financial manager Kevyn Orr said may run out of cash next month and must cut costs such as long-term debt and retiree obligations. According to Bloomberg, “Orr’s report says the cost of $9.4 billion in bond, pension and other long-term liabilities is sapping the ability to provide such basic services as public safety and transportation. He listed cutting debt principal, retiree benefits and jobs among options he may take. “No one should underestimate the severity of the financial crisis,” He called his report “a sobering wake-up call about the dire financial straits the city of Detroit faces.”
Funny, the above bolded sentence, because we have long since crossed into a stage where absolutely everyone is underestimating the severity of the financial crisis, which incidentally is long over if one listens to the broader media. As for Detroit, may we suggest the same medicine that the “expert economists” prescribe for every other instance of overlevered insolvency: just issue more debt. Surely with worthless Greek bonds soaring, there must be some Japanese investment funds that can’t wait to buy up all that paper on nothing but promises of untold riches courtesy of the endless carry trade that apparently can do no wrong.
Orr’s report is probably a prelude to the city’s seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, said Manny Grillo, the New York-based head of restructuring practices for Goodwin Procter LLP. He said there are too many creditors, including 48 employee unions, to reach a consensus without court intervention.
Two of my employees drove to Detroit Saturday, just for something to do. They said if there would have been tanks on the roads that would have made the scene complete.
30 story burnt out buildings, gas stations burned, house’s burned, abandoned vehicles, hardly anyone on the streets.
On the bright side, on the way out of the city there were lots of homes for sale, $4,000.00, cash. Sounds like a good deal to me.
The MSM is crowing about the lower gasoline sales which are benefitting the American consumer. -admin
I read where oil dropped to some 95 a barrel. Meanwhile the last time fuel prices climbed this high was when oil was around 140 a bbl.
Gasoline sales are lower because many cant afford as much of it. That doesnt mean they are consuming more at the local grocery.
I work as a waitress. I work for a chain. The Admin has flamed on TBP many times the company I work for. (I swear I am not being cryptic, I can get fired, my company has a no social internet policy). Anyway, Our business died this spring. I have worked as a waitress for years. This NEVER happens in the spring. Usually the refund tax (redneck/ghetto christmas) keeps me busy in the spring. But, this year nobody ate out. The last time I had low spring sales was right before the 2008 crash. Get ready, another wall street failure is coming.
Calamity
Might I suggest you sell your body instead? Men are always horny, and are genetically programmed to need sex at least once a week. You can make at least 5x your current income, and some women even find it pleasurable. it’s not called the oldest profession in the world by accident. Sign me up as your first customer/john.
Llpoh- lol if the economy gets any worse, I could really make a profit at that. Apparently, I’m a hot stuff. Lucky for me, being a waitress isnt my only job. But it is my primary job.
Not me,Calamity. Dirty doppler.
Llhop- I know who is your doppler. No worries.
Methinks Calamity works for Applebees.
Calamity
There is nothing sexier than a hooker blowjob, followed by economic / political discussion.
The best of both worlds. You could make millions. I call 2nds right after the real llpoh.
Stuck
Remember your infatuation with Zara?
Stucky- hell no, think of another company admin has flamed many, many times. lol
Calamity said, “I work as a waitress. I work for a chain. The Admin has flamed on TBP many times the company I work for. …… Anyway, Our business died this spring. I have worked as a waitress for years. This NEVER happens in the spring. …… But, this year nobody ate out. The last time I had low spring sales was right before the 2008 crash. Get ready, another wall street failure is coming.”
You’re too damn smart to work as a waitress, but I appreciate your anecdotal input. Valuable insight from the ground floor.
And dismiss the (c)rude comments on selling your body for sex. And I mean just plain rude.
SSS- Thanks, I appreciate that.
I work as a waitress and a bartender, because I make over 15 dollars an hours. Since I am only legally obligated to claim 8% of my sales in taxes, that means half the money I make isn’t taxed. They can’t prove I make more then that, since I deal in cash and the law favors me unintentionally. Plus it gives me plenty of time to freelance in graphic design and tattoos. Also, I get to have time to write for TBP.
Trust me, those were jokes. I know who doppled Llhop for shits and giggles.
Tattoo artist and Red Lobster/Olive Garden hash slinger? Yummy
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Lol, Juan. TBP learns more about me everyday. So much for anonymous.
Calamity
Feel free to let the TBPers know about your website.
You could even post a portion of an article on TBP with a link to your website to finish it.
Calamity preparing young people for their career in the workplace
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You won’t let Stucky have sloppy seconds? Damn shame.
So, which is it? Red Lobster or Olive Garden?
Which way to the employment office?
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Juan- I cannot confirm or deny either.
Admin,
Though it would increase my own traffic, all my stories except two have ended up on TBP. I don’t know how to do that honestly. I have so far posted fairly short stories on purpose. I don’t like to write long articles that would be required for that, I am open to have other traffic coming in though. I did however, most TBPers would be happy to know, had someone who started a blog called “Modern Scarlet Letter” after my last post. That was pretty cool.
Calamity says: “Since I am only legally obligated to claim 8% of my sales in taxes, that means half the money I make isn’t taxed.”
I am pretty damn certain that is false. I am pretty damn certain that Calamity just owned up to being a tax cheat. By law, waitresses have to report every penny. And I mean every penny. So, our good friend Calamity has is cheating on her taxes by some couple thousand dollars per year or so. And she is also underpaying SS and Medicare taxes as a result.
Seriously, Calamity – that is bullshit. Pay your fucking taxes. Or have the good sense not to admit to TAX FRAUD. Which you just openly did.
I am all for using every legal way of minimizing tax. But I am for damn sure against people cheating on their taxes. That is bullshit for Greece and Italy. It is corrupt.
And saying “Since I am only legally obligated to claim 8% of my sales in taxes” is a goddamn lie – and I have no doubt Calamity knows it is a goddamn lie. I guess it is how waitresses justify stealing from the country.
From the IRS site re tips: “you must report all tips you received in 2012 on your tax return, including both cash tips and noncash tips. ”
Fuck, I really hate tax cheats.
“government study found the bulk of the underreporting of income was done by self-employed restaurateurs”
Guess ol’ honest Calamity has a lot of company.
Calamity says above ” I don’t know how to do that honestly.
Guess there is a lot of stuff she does not know how to do honestly.
The FEDERAL law is that waitress must report 8% of their sales in tips. I report 10%. I have work with a server who got audited. This person only claimed up to minimum wage, big difference. As long as a server reports 8% at minimum they can’t be audited. You would know these practices if you had worked in my field before. No server EVER claims 100% of their tips. Your statement is just ignorant.
Besides, you think I am going to be sad about old farts welfare programs going belly up. Get real. I’m not paying a penny more into that program then I have to. What is fraud is making my generation pay for that shit to begin with. That program isn’t going to be there for me. I don’t give a damn about government retirement social programs. I doubt many of my generation does care about SS. We have been told all our lives that it won’t be there for us. Older people got theirs and tough shit kids. Like I feel any sympathy. I can’t wait until those programs go belly up and I get to keep 100% of the money I earned.
Calamity – there is a minimum assumed rate of tips. However, the law is you must report ALL of your fucking tips.
You are a fucking tax cheat. I do not give a shit that no one reports all of their tips. They are fucking tax cheats too.
And you are admitting it on this forum, and you are trying to defend it because everyone else does it.
It is bullshit. You are a fucking tax cheat, you admit it by what you say, and I have quoted the law where it says you have to report ALL of your tips – you can find it in Pub 531 if you want to look for yourself. There is no doubt that the LAW requires you to report ALL of your income. But you think you do not have to, because no one else does.
You think that reporting 10% will keep them off your scent – which means you absolutely know you are supposed to report it all.
I hate tax cheats. You are in for quite a bruising from here on in.
You also say “As long as a server reports 8% at minimum they can’t be audited.” That is also a fucking lie. Anyone can be audited. *% is the presumed minimum and does not eliminate the possibility of audit. Hope you have not been depositing that money, or have spent money that can be tracked. Of course you can be audited. Wouldn’t that be a shame.
Seriously, now the tax cheat is saying she cheats because she doesn’t like where the money goes. Who the fuck does?
She is a fucking no ethics gutter rat. Whatever she can use to justify her criminal activity is just fucking fine. What a low-life piece of shit.
llpoh giving tax advice to his secretary
Calamity
Tell llpoh you wear a thumb ring. That will make him foam at the mouth.
So what if I cheat. I’m not paying for any social free shit army. This includes boomers and those alive that came before them. A server can be audited. What they do is follow you from table to table for 3 weeks straight. They stay for your whole shift and right down every tip. If that EVER, EVER happens. I know how to piss people of slightly enough for a low tip on purpose. SO does every server who has ever worked. Its not worth the IRS effort to audit servers. It costs them money. Mostly they come after private business fraud. SO watch yourself.
No she has gone from “so what if I cheat” to owning up to it.
and you have no idea how a REAL fucking audit works. They look at your expenditures and at your bank account. Following you for three fucking weeks – least of your problems. Glad you know all the tricks of the TAX CHEAT trade. You are a low-life criminal, and proud of it. You are a fucking parasite. You have a great future to look forward to. Unethical pieces of shit generally get what they deserve in the end.
Count on me to keep spreading the word about you. At every fucking opportunity.
Hope you have not been depositing that money, or have spent money that can be tracked.
What part of CASH BASED job did you not understand. I have no bank account at all. ON PURPOSE. You can’t trace cash. Especially if ya don’t spend it.
“An audit can reveal unreported cash tips even without direct evidence of under-reporting. For example, the IRS can compare a waitress’s lifestyle to her income. A low income but high amount of spending suggests unreported income. For example, a waitress that claims a gross income of $20,000 but buys a $25,000 luxury car probably has at least $5,000 in unaccounted income.”
llpoh has uncovered the true culprits in this corrupt society
Llhop- I am really proud of it, you have no idea. I am just so clever. I’m glad my college education taught me something. I know math!!! You are missing my BIGGEST point. I am NOT pay for the BOOMERS RETIREMENT. I will sell drugs on the street before I foot the bill on that shit. Some people on TBP, especially you, aren’t getting this. I will commit as much fucking fraud as possible to not pay for those programs. I don’t need permission either. Be very afraid. MOST of my generation is not going to pay for it. You don’t make laws about the youth. Spend their money. Make them obligated without consulting them in the first place. I didn’t promise anything to the older generations. I didn’t promise shit to deadbeat welfare people. I didn’t support Obama care. I am not paying a dime for it. I would rather sit in jail.
Llhop-Wear a thumb ring and foam at the mouth.
Admin – I am already fucking foaming at the mouth. I hate lying, cheating tax-evading sacks of shit. And this one has run the entire gamut of excuses – I report all I am legally required to, I report more than I am legally required to, etc to finally “Yeah, I am a tax cheat – because I do not want to pay”.
I now have as a mission to make sure every time that stupid bitch posts that I point out to all and sundry that she is an admitted tax fraud. No wonder she posts such stupid shit – she has no moral or ethical compass whatsoever.
llpoh
There are no waitresses in this country that report all of their tips. None. They get paid $2.80 per hour and have to put up with asshole customers who treat them like dirt and stiff them on checks.
Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone.
llpoh is the only person in America that has never exaggerated a deduction or not reported some cash income. You are an inspiration to all taxpayers.
Big dog foaming over waitresses cheating Obama out of $32.76 in taxes.
Calamity
llpoh has no problem with GE because they have really good tax lawyers. If you just have your tax lawyers create a foreign subsidiary and run your tips through it, llpoh will pat you on the back for creative use of tax laws.
An audit can reveal unreported cash tips even without direct evidence of under-reporting. For example, the IRS can compare a waitress’s lifestyle to her income.
I drive a 14 year old care that was given to me. I don’t spend money. I keep everything I earn. I make sure to claim enough to report for my bills. Ya know, an even ratio. I buy everything in cash and only have paper receipts. You can only track that shit for fraud with bank accounts and credit reports. SO sorry, ya I know math.
And Calamity misses my biggest point – she is a piece of shit. She is a lying piece of shit – trying to hide the fact that she is a tax cheat, and then finally owning up when her lies could not be covered up. She certainly takes advantage of all the govt pases her way no doubt – but tries to justify it by saying “I ain’t paying for this, I ain’t paying for that”.
What a stupid cunt.
Admin – you did see that waitresses fail to report more income than any other group? The tax loss would be huge. Why, Cuntlamity would be underpay thousands just herself.
Llhop-
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Glad you are proud of yourself, you lying tax cheat. I know what you are. You are a stupid criminal with no moral or ethical compass, that thinks she has words of wisdom for others, yet cannot behave in an honest fashion in her own life. Maybe you should be a televangelical. You would fit right in.
I will keep reminding you, Cuntlamity. Count on it.
Calamity
You should have seen llpoh foaming at the mouth when I would kick his ass on the OWS threads.
He is probably in a bad mood because one of his employees called in sick today after having their foot amputated yesterday. He hates being taken advantage of by slackers.
Admin – I do not cheat on my taxes. I do not hide income. I do not commit tax fraud. Unlike our ur good Cuntlamity, who owns up to making over $30k per year, half of it un-reported.
Your $2.80 is bullshit – they all make more than that. That is their base wage. They need to report their income just like everyone else. My employees do. You do. I do. But not waitresses? Horseshit.
I treat waitresses nicely. If they do not like their work, find another line of work. But, oh yeah, they would actually have to pay tax!
Sounds like an industry rife with low-lifes, the way you put it.
admin,
He called me naive earlier. Quite frankly, I dont know anybody who is honest on their taxes but him. I did almost choke on the cookie I was eating when I read the last comments. lol. If only it was a cookie purchased on food stamps. That would really send him over the edge.
Llhop- I am a tax cheat and proud of it. I got out of my way to bring down the system. I’m a renegade!!
Cue-Rage against the Machine music!
And Admin comes out with GE again. What a surprise. The reason corps run money through subsidiaries is that 1) it is LEGAL , and 2) because the corp taxes in the US are the world’s highest. And Admin forgets that I am all for eliminating paid lobbyists so that GE and others cannot influence the lawmaking that allow the transfer pricing as it exists.
Mostly, tho, corps do not run their tips through their subsidiaries – the profits are made by the subsidiaries and the profits reamin overseas. Transfer pricing is abused, but the main source of income for the subsidiaries is overseas activity.
Llhop- Over 600 rich people have renounced their U.S. citizenship because the tax laws are unjust. The co-founder of facebook jumped ship right before the facebook IPO with his billions.
Admin-If I worked for him I would call in with a hangover everyday. Maybe OWS can start something against so I can be apart of the throw down
llpoh gives his standard 10% tip even when waitresses don’t provide perfect service.
Admin – I won that battle. I was right about OWS. OWS who? many might well ask. A short-lived movement of no consequence would be the answer. My recollection is that someone thought that movement would change the face of the US political process. Damn, who thought that eludes me.
Llhop- OWS is still a movement. They just figured out being hippies is bullshit. They were the ones who used their excess fund to help people after Hurricane Sandy. They were the ones even feeding FEMA workers when their supplies ran low. They also started a program to buy consumer debt pennies on the dollar and forgive it. Last I heard they bought millions worth of debt to forgive.
Cuntlamity – what you do not know is astonishing. The co-founder did indeed renounce and go to Singapore. Rich folks pay an exit tax, that in Eduardo Saverin’s case amounted to several hundred millions of dollars. In the short-term, it cost him a lot of money to renounce – far more than what he might have paid had he stayed a US citizen.
The reason many rich peple might reounce is more likely to be a result of tax reporting requirements than the actual tax itself. Dual citizens living abroad have to report US tax returns, and the reporting is extremely difficult to get right, and the potential penalties far outweigh any taxes concerned. For instance, failing to report a few dollars interest income through an honest mistake (honest – you should look that up) can potential cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in penalties. There is also a thing called an FBAR – where you have to report all your financial bank accounts, and if you get that wrong, it can cost you half your money. Many tax attornies believe it is impossible for someone with substantial assets who lives abroad to comply with US tax law and reporting, which leads these folks to renounce. It is not over the tax, but over potential penalties for making a mistake on a report.