Did you ever notice that government reports are only revised lower in future months after the initial reports are used to support the government’s contention that the economy is improving? Did you ever notice that Wall Street and the MSM mouthpieces go bonkers over the initial reports and then don’t report the dramatically lower revisions? Did you ever notice that your keepers are fucking you over?
Make sure you notice that last chart with the median new home sales price. That will not be revised higher.
The Housing Recovery Has Been Canceled Due To Data Revisions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/24/2014 10:29 -0400
Last month, when, with great amusement, we reported that “New Home Sales Explode Higher Thanks To… Record High Average New Home Prices?”, we mocked the latest batch of bullshit data released by the US department of truth as follows:
New Home Sales rose a magnificent (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) 18% in August – the biggest monthly rise since January 1992 albeit with a 16.3 90% confidence interval, meaning the final number may well be +1.7%. At 504k, new home sales are back at May 2008 levels (though obviously massively below the 1.4 million homes sold at the peak in 2005). As a reminder, May’s 504K new home sales print was later revised later to 458K. But even more stunning, new home sales in The West rose a mind-numbing 50% in August (and up 84.4% YoY – nearly double).
Well, it is now a month later, and here come the revisions: first, that 50% surge in the West was revised… 30K lower. But to get a sense of just how bad the revision was, here is the old, pre-revision data, and the “data” following the latest revision.
In short: the euphoric, consensus-beating data for every single month since May has been revised lower, by on average 6% and as much as 9%. Perhaps finally people will realize that there is only one number that matters in the Census bureau’s monthly new home sales report: the ±15.7 90% confidence interval. Well, people maybe, but not algos, who only care about one thing: whether the data beat or missed.
Now we wonder: will all those market surges over the past 4 months which were based on erroneous headline data, all be revised lower? Sarcasm off.
Oh, and as for that record new home price reported last month, which magically also resulted in what the US government wanted everyone to believe was a surge in buying… well, see for yourselves:
So to summarize: the latest “housing recovery” has been indefinitely postponed due to data revisions.
Did you ever notice? Every time there is bad news about the economy, there is simultaneously a good news story about the economy?
Most of these good housing reports occurred on days where there was bad news no doubt.
From the Economic Collapse Blog:
-39 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.
-52 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
-63 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.
-72 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.
Who the hell is going to buy these houses?
Who the hell is going to buy these houses?
Investors who will rent them to section 8 candidates who get subsided by the government.
The more troubling thing I think is if you look at the median family income. And ask a question?
Can a family of 2.3 children afford housing, food, health care and other necessities as well as college education?
When you can figure that question out . You ll figure out the demographic racial composition in the next 50 years.
What’s left of the economy is a joke. We have bubbles in stocks, housing, education, health care, and especially bonds. Every country is busy trying to devalue faster than their trading partners. All the markets are rigged. The statistics are manipulated or just plain made up.
When this baby blows, it is going to get ugly in a hurry.