Tag: Black Swans

NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I exposed the numerous false narratives being peddled to the masses, as this Fourth Turning is entering the intense phase headed towards an unknown climax.

Image result for false narrative

I’ve been expecting the next shoe to fall in this Fourth Turning for years, but the financial elite have pulled the debt levers to keep the Ponzi scheme alive far longer than a reasonable person would expect. We are only six weeks into 2020 and it seems like a year’s worth of major events have already occurred. The year started with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.

For the next week the world was awash in rhetoric about World War III and possible revolution in Iran. Accusations of Trump using the Wag the Dog method to deflect the negative press from the impeachment hearings were rampant among the half of the country that despises Trump. Soleimani was lauded as a hero by the left and a terrorist by the right. Now, the entire episode seems like ancient history, as more interesting squirrels have arisen for the propaganda media to chase.

The entire month of January was occupied by the ongoing coup/impeachment against Donald Trump. Schiff, Nadler and Pelosi doing their best impression of the three stooges, conducted a laughable prosecution in the House, revealing this was nothing more than a desperate attempt to avoid losing to Trump in a November landslide. The predictable trial in the Senate resulted in an acquittal and Trump’s popularity soaring to all-time highs, as independents realized the Democrats misused the power of impeachment for purely political purposes. Trump’s SOTU address infuriated Pelosi to such an extent it provoked her into acting like a petulant child, tearing up the speech. Future campaign ads wrote themselves.

Continue reading “NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE (PART TWO)”

Oil’s Crisis Spikes and the Impact on the Gold Price

Via International Man

oil crisis gold prices

At the time, the book was ground-breaking.

Back in 2007, Nassim Taleb published a book called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

He promoted not to try and speculate or predict wild, outlier type events… but to prepare and plan for them.

The 2008 Financial Crisis launched Taleb into infamy as Black Swan event after event hit the newswires.

The AIG fiasco. Fannie Mae. Freddie Mac. Lehman. Bailouts. TARP. The world was ending, and black swans became normal.

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The Market Has Its Head Buried Deep In The Sand

Via Investment Research Dynamics

Several “black swans” are looming which could inflict a financial nuclear accident on the U.S. markets and financial system.   I say “black swans” in quotes because a limited audience is aware of these issues – potentially catastrophic problems that are curiously ignored by the mainstream financial media and financial markets.

The most immediate problem is the Treasury debt ceiling.  The Treasury is now projected to run out of cash by mid-summer.  Of course, in the spurious manner in which the markets evaluate the next trade, July may as well be a decade away.  My best guess is that the “market” assumes that, after drawn out staging of DC’s version of Kabuki Theatre, Congress will raise the debt ceiling, probably up to $22 trillion.  Then the Fed will extend its highly secretive “swap” operations to foreign “ally” Central Banks (hint:  Belgium and Switzerland) in order to fund the onslaught of Treasury issuance that will ensue.  Problem solved…or is it?

(Note:  Plan B would be another one of Trump’s bewildering Executive Orders removing the debt ceiling.  Plan B is another form of “fiat” currency issuance)

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Black Swans: 9 Recent Events That Changed Finance Forever

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist
Société Générale has come out with their most recent list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.

France’s third largest bank publishes this list as part of their Global Economic Outlook. As several users have pointed out in the past, we are indeed aware that black swans are by nature unlikely and extremely difficult to predict. We agree with this, but we do find SocGen’s list a useful way of understanding some of the upcoming risks in the market that could sway investor sentiment and opinion.

In the latest edition of the report, which was published this week, the bank still sees an excess of potential downside risks to the global economy. The greatest of these risks, slated at only a 10% probability but with maximum impact potential, is a new global recession. The report mentions as well that a hard landing in China could have similar effects.