Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe: “Today’s Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom”

John Mauldin interviewed Fourth Turning best-selling author and demographics expert, Neil Howe about generational changes and their effect on the markets, during a session at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018.  Howe said that demographics and generational factors have a huge impact on equity prices in the long run. Not only that, he thinks that there’s now a generational shift in wealth distribution that could spark major political and economic disruption.

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Today’s Demographics Defies Conventional Wisdom

The main example Howe shared is that people in the 75+ age bracket still dominate stock ownership by far. This defies conventional wisdom that people reduce risk as they retire and leave the workforce. Meanwhile, Millennials have lower income and stock ownership levels than previous generations did at the same age.

This is a key change as senior adults once had the highest poverty rates. Younger people are now challenging that once-safe assumption.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/neil%20howe%20teaser%202.JPG?itok=XQcw91w8
Neil Howe

Howe also pointed out striking differences between early and late Baby Boomers. Those born in the mid/late 1940s inherited some of the Silent Generation’s wealth and good fortune. Late-stage Boomers born in the early 1960s score lower in all kinds of metrics.

Major Political and Financial Disruption Is Ahead

Neil Howe ended  with an update on his Fourth Turning generational theory. He thinks we are about midway through it. From an economic standpoint, he foresees inflation fear and Fed tightening, which will be followed by a painful recession.

Politically, Millennials desperately want civic re-engagement. They are seeking to completely restructure institutions. The right wing is a brick wall on this subject and numbers have let them hold off the pressure so far. This will change as Millennials grow older and Boomers die.

Howe also pointed out that generational wealth transfer is going to be highly concentrated, reflecting current wealth inequality. Boomer wealth will flow to younger generations but the vast majority of Generation X and Millennials will get very little.

As that happens, Howe anticipates major disruption, by which he means ugly inter generational conflict.

For this an more presentations tune in to the SIC 2018 live blog.

 

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8 Comments
Anonymous
Anonymous
March 10, 2018 9:07 am

This is why we need more illegal Mexicans to prop up and grow our economy.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
  Anonymous
March 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Yeah that giant sucking sound is YOU. Mexicans cannot even grow their own country. Here they take almost as much tax money to eat and live than blacks. These idiots are just serfs for the Rich and without subsidies they will EAT THE RICH.

I’ll bring the gravy. Those old vultures will taste better with
GRAVY.

KaD
KaD
March 10, 2018 10:40 am

Many of the elderly won’t be giving anything to anyone when they die as it will all be sucked up into their last years medical expenses or their estate will be sued for it by the various government departments following their demise.

BB
BB
March 10, 2018 11:58 am

Or you might end with family members that get most of the pass down wealth and piss it away buying things of no lasting value.

Coalclinker
Coalclinker
March 10, 2018 2:03 pm

This quote from the article deserves comment:
” The right wing is a brick wall on this subject and numbers have let them hold off the pressure so far.”

Well, considering that many of the millennials are supposedly socialistic and are supportive of income redistribution, and very supportive of the SJW bullshit, it is understandable that the “right wing” is
” a brick wall” to the millennials. It’s because they are communist!

james the deplorable wanderer
james the deplorable wanderer
March 10, 2018 3:06 pm

The government already steals endless wealth while we’re young (speaking as a late Boomer described above, not going to inheirit anything much); but true wealth “does not come in the house by the front door”, according to a Chinese proverb. It is the values, drive and determination, along with character to withstand adversity, that our parents teach us by example.
While I hate paying income taxes, and hope Trump can shift us back to financing government with tariffs, I will teach my children to “stand the storm” and be ready for better weather afterwards.

rhs jr
rhs jr
March 10, 2018 9:31 pm

I don’t have confidence in youth, especially the urban ones, to maintain America even after they inherit our wealth and jobs. They are mentally, physically and morally weak. The blame is mostly ours for having tolerated the ZOG and Cultural Marxist. They are working hard to create Chaos and establish full Communism; but maybe the Civil War will backfire on them and by the help God, Conservatives will re-establish Truth, Justice and the American Way.

card802
card802
March 11, 2018 8:16 am

I’m related to some pretty stupid progressive liberal millennials that firmly believe only a democrat controlled government is the answer.

But then I’m friends with other millennials that firmly believe in a lifestyle that does not include student loan debt, mortgage debt, new car debt, credit card debt, throwing money into a rigged stock market, playing the fucking game of being a slave to debt, eating healthy foods, living a low impact minimalist lifestyle.
They live in vans/campers that they converted and move around as they see fit or in tiny houses, they don’t believe in loans they can’t pay back within a year, they don’t believe in banks holding their money.

When us old farts die and the stupid progressive liberals heads finally explode from waiting for a government to save them, maybe these millennials are the true preppers.