Guest Post by Michael Snyder
Virtually every piece of hard economic data is telling us that the U.S. economy is slowing down dramatically. Many of the pundits have been warning that we could officially enter recession territory later this year or next year, but these numbers seem to indicate that it could happen a whole lot sooner than that. But the stock market has been surging over the last two months, and at this point stocks are off to their best start to a year since 1987, and as long as stock prices are rising a lot of people are simply not going to pay much attention to the economic alarm bells that are ringing. But everyone should be paying attention, because things are really starting to get bad out there. The following are 18 really big numbers that show that the U.S. economy is starting to fall apart very rapidly…
#1 Farm loan delinquencies just hit the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.
#2 We just learned that U.S. exports declined by 4 billion dollars during the month of December.
#3 J.C. Penney just announced that they will be closing another 24 stores.
#4 Victoria’s Secret has just announced plans to close 53 stores.
#5 On Thursday, Gap announced that it will be closing 230 stores over the next two years.
#6 Payless ShoeSource has declared bankruptcy and is closing all 2,100 stores.
#7 Tesla is also closing all of their physical sales locations and will now only sell vehicles online.
#8 PepsiCo has started laying off workers and has committed to “millions of dollars in severance pay”.
#9 The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years.
#10 This is the worst slump for core U.S. factory orders in three years.
#11 We just witnessed the largest decline in the Philly Fed Business Index in more than 7 years.
#12 In January, sales of existing homes fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier. That was the third month in a row that we have seen a decline of at least 8 percent. This is an absolutely catastrophic trend for the real estate industry.
#13 U.S. housing starts were down 11.2 percent in December compared to the previous month.
#14 Compared to a year earlier, home sales in southern California were down 17 percent in January.
#15 In December, home sales in Sacramento County fell a whopping 22.5 percent compared to a year earlier.
#16 Pending home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for 13 months in a row.
#17 More than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is now “seriously delinquent”. That is an all-time record.
#18 More than 7 million Americans are behind on their auto loan payments. That is also a new all-time record, and it is far higher than anything that we witnessed during the last recession.
It appears that “the recovery” has finally come to an end. After seeing all of those numbers, there is no way that anyone can possibly claim that economic conditions are “getting better”.
And even though the official government numbers are highly manipulated, we never even had one “boom year” throughout the entire “recovery”.
The final numbers for 2018 are now in, and last year was the 13th year in a row when U.S. GDP growth was below 3 percent.
The last time we had a “boom year” when economic growth was above 3 percent was all the way back in 2005. That was in the middle of the Bush administration.
We have never seen a bad streak like this before in modern American history. The following comes from CNS News…
But prior to the current 13-year period when real GDP has failed to grow by 3.0 percent in any year, there has been no stretch (in the years since 1930) when the United States went as long as five straight years with real GDP failing to grow by at least 3 percent.
Even though the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system over the last decade, and even though we added nearly 12 trillion dollars to the national debt, the best that the authorities have been able to do is to stabilize the system for a while. Now it is starting to sputter once again, and many believe that the next crisis will be far worse than the last one.
By contrast, the Great Depression of the 1930s featured some really bad years, but following those bad years the U.S. experienced a tremendous economic boom…
By contrast, after the stock market crash in 1929, the United States saw four years of negative annual GDP-1930 (-8.5), 1931 (-6.4), 1932 (-12.9) and 1933 (-1.2). But then in the nine full years from 1934 through 1942, real GDP grew by an average of 9.75 percent.
We should have had some boom years too, but we didn’t, and now things are going to get bad again.
The Democrats are going to blame the Republicans and the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats, but all of that arguing isn’t going to solve anything.
What is coming next has been a central focus of my work for a very long time. The last recession was very painful, but it did not fundamentally alter life in America.
This next crisis will.
The “Everything Bubble” is bursting, the “Perfect Storm” is coming, and all of our lives will never be the same again.
But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t hope. In fact, once things really start getting crazy hope is going to be one of the major themes in my work because people are really going to need it.
There will be great challenges, and life will be very different, but that doesn’t mean that life is over.
America is about to experience the consequences of decades of exceedingly foolish decisions, and the pain will be extreme. But difficult times also offer an opportunity for dramatic change, and that is something that we will need to embrace.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
what recovery?
There’ve been XX sign things are falling apart for more than a decade. Fall apart already. It’s as bad as Glen beck and his stupid predictions.
Big Mike 2020
“And the bankruptcy began, gradually, and then suddenly, all at once…” To paraphrase Hemingway, the USA is rolling into the suddenly portion, but since we are so big, and some will fight it more than others, it will be awhile yet before we are truly desperate. But come 2024, and the elections then, watch out, (((they))) will stoking up “the perfect storm” to wreck the USA from within. Prepare accordingly, we don’t have long now….
I’m tired of all this “winning”. Really.
The Baltic Drys is a good indicator of international trade. I have no idea why anyone would believe Trump saying the economy is great when it’s obvious the tariffs are detrimental. Student loans, public debt and the pension shortfall, sub-prime auto loans, housing sales, and farm reports … all bad.
It’s going to be one hell of a show. Remind me not to laugh.
Yawn. Wonder what the author is selling?
Mr. ott: followed the Baltic Drys for several years but never saw it signal anything other than the data were probably being manipulated. In theory it should be a useful indicator like the railcar loadings statistic was back in “the good old days”. Did you ever make a dime off BDI? If so, care to share your secret? When you are done, tell me how to play the BIS numbers-I could use some beer money.
Sure, there is a lot of “bad” stuff, but does it really matter, especially since we have been told by the Elites that it no longer matters? They now know how to hit the number keys, followed by “Enter” and everything will be okay. Printing presses no longer needed-all the ex-printers are learning code anyway.
The game:
student loans = roped the youngins in
sub-prime auto loans = roped the dumb ones in
housing sales = roped the upwardly mobile w/jobs in
pension shortfall = roped the old farts in
Bernie’s gonna have a heyday and Sandy O’s gonna be watching.
As far as winning: if it a rainy day at the race track and your horse leads wire-to-wire both the horse and the jockey look spit-and-polished clean while all the others look like chimney sweeps. The game may be ugly, but if you manage to be ahead of #2 then isn’t that worth something?
No stock tips here. Homey don’t play that gamble anymore because my timing at the stock game sucks even though I can see a trend.
I played Garmin back in the day when it doubled. I broke even.
Bought Apple when it was near 68 and, like a dumbass, sold at 72. During the downturn I even had the gumption to short Lehman Brothers and got out with a few grand in profit. Sold all my government T-bills and cashed out the one big IRA for metal.
Beer money? I’ve learned to brew my own. Hell of a lot cheaper that way. I can make 5 gallons for what a normal mook would pay for a craft pair of sixpacks.
Live and learn.
Thx for the advice; you are easier to understand than that OF in Omaha. I actually made some shorting AAPL, just before it took off like a rocketship. I quit when I figured my broker had to be working against me on my order fills-too many “coincidences” and near misses that did not make sense. I still laugh remembering that day when CVX was adjusted down a full dollar after market close; I was short so was not hurt, but sure wondered how all the people who sold that day felt, knowing that the NVA of their holding had been negatively affected by the CVX manipulation. A couple of cents I can see, but a whole dollar?
Last Home Brew I had was a bartered deal with a software guy in a negotiating class; he wanted a piece of wood custom cut for his musical something-or-another equipment. Turns out he measured wrong, so he sheepishly called asking if we could do it again. I didn’t mind, as I had extra wood leftover and his Brew was pretty darn good.
I wish I wasn’t so jaded with the stories of impending economic doom. Am I the only sap that has been convinced of the logic that ‘proves’ this time is different-for the past 5 years?
Fuck me.
Cease, on a short economics review with the old lady, I said the world has to go down before ‘Murica feels the pinch. We still have friends we ain’t used. And there’s many more countries to liberate for their oil; Venezuela, Iran, several South African countries…
I guess something bad has to happen. life has been too good to me.
Waitin…waitin for the world to change…
A sea of red at my job, 9 years of decent comps depressing as fuck.
In spite of it all I wonder why I quit drinking.
The new interptrepation of this problem solving is easily done using common core math. 1 + 1 = infinity. Our dollar system is being setup for a fall – digital currency is licking its chops
1) tariffs are not going to work. There will be an immediate drop in exports, as seems to have happened, but the corresponding drop in imports and increase in local production will lag.
2) Any production that is returned to the US will be highly automated, and will create very few jobs. Additionally, automation of manufacturing will continue apace, further reducing manfacturing jobs.
3) tariffs will drive up prices, which is a bad thing generally.
4) automation that eliminates many current jobs will continue to accelerate
5) all of these factors will hit the middle class. The middle class will become the upper lower class, if they are lucky.
6) People need to be in the upper 20% of skills, intelligence, work ethic, and education, or they are going to get royally screwed, and the screwing seen so far has been gentle in comparison.
7) any modestly skilled folks that think their jobs are safe from automation are deluded. First the low hanging fruit will be picked, like repetitive manufacturing, then the rest of the fruit will be harvested.
The current middle class system is going to prove to be quite temporary. The entire idea of modest skill, modest intelligent, modestly educated, modest work ethic types earning many multiples of what similar folks earn world-wide, who number in the billions of people, is entirely insane. It is simply not sustainable.
When the economy finally crashes we go back to manual labor. Who will suffer most will be the professional class that produces nothing.
Lots of high rise work stations will be empty. The professional class who own the biggest houses will lose them by default. Then they will be filled by multiple families of the lower classes.
The cities will go broke and municipal services will be mostly gone.
This depression will be bigger and more wide spread than the one of 29. There will be much suffering.
But the country will get through it, debt will be eliminated and we will see a resurgence of real human values and work ethic.
History always repeats itself. We will be a country like every country in the world.
Shades of the Phantom cities in China.
Some professional class types will suffer. Some not so much. Be skilled in real,world things – business, numbers, engineering, science, medicine, etc., with a good work ethic, good values, etc., and a person will likely be fine. Otherwise, as TBird says, grab a shovel. But the middle class is going, going, ….
My guess is that business will remain profitable in the shitty things that no one wants to do: Septic business, for example. No one sits around in 5th grade daydreaming about repairing septic lines. When the shit is backing up into your basement because of a clogged or broken line, the septic guy becomes indispensable. And it can’t get offshored to Bangalore. This kind of business still requires you to work long, hard and smart, but you don’t have to have the math skills one needs for engineering, medicine, etc.
Iska – still gotta know some basic physics. Knowledge of gravity is key. Having pumped a few septic tanks (more than a few -spent a summer pumping tanks at rest stops) it is critical to know shit runs down hill.
Come to think of it, in every endeavour it is critical to understand shit runs down hill.
LLPOH, you seem to be saying that merely being white is not enough to compete in Future-world. Oh, the humanity! Could it be a (((Jewish))) conspiracy to lull whites into complacency by telling them that their race is the Ace card insuring their dominance? Asking for a friend.
Color will not matter much. Brains, work ethic, values, education will be the key. White will help to the extent of perhaps a highish IQ. Yellow likely better. Black is likely in shit city there. Brown and red in the lower middle.
Ahh yes, Fearmongering Snyder. As is typical with law, he thinks in terms of singular cause and effect rather than cycles. If he studied hard sciences, he’d understand that everything is cyclical. The time to get involved in small farming was like yesterday, while there’s blood in the streets with 20th century agriculture.
We got tomatoes thrown at Trump, Tariffs, faulty statistics, economic cycles, automation, and dumb debtors, etc. What about the Liberals Great Society Bamboozle that unConstitutionally made White males 2nd Class Tax Clean-up Slaves for the millions of Dindos who guzzle trillions of Welfare dollars, produce nothing and gum up the gears of Society? Do you reckon that hurt America like a couple hundred hurricane Katrinas going through a couple hundred urban areas?
This list is a bit on the silly side. You are simply fattening up the count by including a bunch of points from the same genre, for lack of a better term.
Consumer retail is so far out of control with build out over the years this had to happen. It doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is collapsing. People are finally coming to their senses and doing smarter things with their business from where I sit.
We’ve been hearing doom porn for years, and nothing has yet to materialize. Not saying it won’t either, but as long as all of the governments and central banks are complicit and playing nice with each other this can go on forever and a day.
I think it all hits the fan in 2024, ALL of it.
2024? You are an optimist. It is almost a daily toss of the coin.
Snyder must be getting a nickel a word.
Fuck you Snyder.
What happened to Uncola’s months in review??