The 3rd Largest Bond Market Is Flashing Red… Could a Financial Crisis Be Near?

Guest Post by Chris MacIntosh

Bond Market

At a macro level it is worth understanding that for US hegemony to continue to exist it has relied on a level of global order – legal, political, and always backed up with the military.

The Mackinder Doctrine

The Mackinder doctrine essentially states that “who rules the World-Island -mainly the area ruled by Russia- commands the world”.

In order to retain this global power the US has been fueling both sides of proxy wars for decades, but these countries which have been subjugated have been relatively inconsequential in terms of global trade, like Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, etc. and certainly inconsequential in terms of military power. Continue reading “The 3rd Largest Bond Market Is Flashing Red… Could a Financial Crisis Be Near?”

The US Treasury Is Going Bankrupt

I’m sure absolutely nothing terrible is going to happen when inflation for September was 8.2% but the 10-YR Treasury is 4.13% currently. Nothing to worry about at all. I’m sure everybody will be lining up around the block to buy treasuries that’ll pay out half the current inflation rate 10 years from now. Sounds totally logical.

Click to visit the TBP Store for Great TBP Merchandise

BULL IN A CHINA SHOP

“So the modern world may be increasing in technological knowledge, but, paradoxically, it is making things a lot more unpredictable.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

“Success brings an asymmetry: you now have a lot more to lose than to gain. You are hence fragile.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

I had read Nassim Taleb’s other best-selling tomes about risk, randomness and black swans – Fooled by Randomness & The Black Swan. They were not easy reads, but they were must reads. He is clearly a brilliant thinker, but I like him more because he is a prickly skeptic who scorns and ridicules academics, politicians, and Wall Street scumbags with gusto. There were many passages which baffled me, but so many nuggets of wisdom throughout each book, you couldn’t put them down.

When his Antifragile book was published in 2012, the name intimidated me. I figured it was too intellectual for my tastes. When I saw it on the shelf in my favorite used book store at the beach, I figured it was worth a read for $9. I’m plowing through it and I haven’t been disappointed.

His main themes are more pertinent today than they were in 2012. He published The Black Swan in 2007, just prior to one of the biggest black swans in world history – the 2008 Federal Reserve/Wall Street created financial collapse. His disdain for “experts” like Bernanke, Paulson, and Wall Street CEOs, and their inability to comprehend the consequences of their actions and in-actions as the financial system was blown sky high, was a bulls-eye.

Continue reading “BULL IN A CHINA SHOP”

Did President-Elect Trump Just Inadvertently Kill The Golden Goose?

Submitted by Gordon T Long via MATASII.com,

President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed the seed of an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump’s stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in  the longer term they have the potential to surpass the bold and successful initiatives of Ronald Reagan. However, in the near term he has already unknowingly just shot himself in the foot.

To understand this we need to look at some charts from the FRED system which we unearthed in trying to understand what the future presently entails for corporate stock buybacks and dividend payouts. Shown in the chart below we see how Corporate CEO / CFO’s have increased their debt loads by historically unprecedented levels of 20-30% Y-o-Y since just after the GFC (Great Financial Crisis). You will notice that in the last year that rate of growth has gone negative.

11-03-16-mata-studies-buybacks-1

The next chart we found astounding regarding the degree of correlation of the above corporate debt growth (primarily being used for buybacks and dividend payouts) compared  to the movement of the S&P 500 on a Quarterly Y-o-Y change basis. There can be little doubt about what has been sustaining the artificial levels of US equity markets!

11-03-16-mata-studies-buybacks-2

Continue reading “Did President-Elect Trump Just Inadvertently Kill The Golden Goose?”