As previewed last night, the jobs “whisper” risk was to the downside, and in what was a very disappointing print released moments ago by the BLS, the whisper was spot on with only 138K jobs added in May, far below the 185K estimate, and below the lowest estimate of 140K. This was the second lowest print going back all the way to last October. Additionally, April’s big beat of 211K was revised substantially lower to only 174K, suggesting that any expectation the Fed may have had of “evidence” the recent economic slowdown was transitory was just crushed.
Tag: jobs
Which U.S. Jobs Are Disappearing Fastest?
Thank God blogger isn’t on the list.
You will find more statistics at Statista
Continue reading “Which U.S. Jobs Are Disappearing Fastest?”
MEMPHIS JOB OPENINGS
Shocking Fact in Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls
Initial Reaction
Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.
The big news is in employment where the three-month trend worsened.
In the last three months, employment has only risen by a grand total of 33,000. Employment in January declined by 30,000. For the entire year, employment rose by only 1,548,000. The average increase from a year ago is only 129,000 per month.
These trends have now gone on long enough they should not be ignored. But they are.
Instead, media is gaga over the beat-the-street headline number of +227,000 jobs.
Continue reading “Shocking Fact in Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls”
NOT A BAD FOUR DAYS WORK
Obama didn’t do this much to help workers in 8 years
A BIASED 2017 FORECAST (PART ONE)
“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project. This was a completely new direction from his financial crisis books. I wasn’t sure whether it would keep my interest, but the story of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and their research into the psychology of judgement and decision making, creating a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases, was an eye opener.
In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others. These rules work well under most circumstances, but they can lead to systematic deviations from logic, probability or rational choice theory. The resulting errors are called “cognitive biases” and many different types have been documented.
Soaring Dollar Hits US Trade, Sends Goods Trade Deficit To Highest Since March 2015
Tariffs will solve this problem. Right?
Who could have possibly thought that a soaring dollar would have an adverse impact on the US trade deficit, and thus, the US economy. Well, not the Fed, if only for now, because just as the Fed hiked rates only for the second time in a decade, the US advance goods trade deficit soared from $61.9 billion to $65.3 billion, far higher than the consensus print of $61.6 billion. This was the highest advance trade gap since March of 2015 when the dollar was likewise soaring.
The reason for the far greater than expected deficit: exports of goods fell 1.0%, while imports of goods rose 1.2%.
The Real Crisis Trump Will Face With Trade
Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The entire problem with trade and jobs has been its focus on only the job and not the consumer. David Ricardo developed his principle that nations should pursue their own competitive advantages. In other words, just because I might want to be a brain surgeon does not mean that (1) I might be very good at it, and (2) that I am entitled to state protectionism to prevent others coming into the field who could expose me as second-rate.
Continue reading “The Real Crisis Trump Will Face With Trade”
CARRIER AND THE SLIPPERY SLOPE
“Companies are not going to leave the United States anymore without consequences.” – Donald Trump
The reaction to Trump’s deal to keep 1,100 Carrier jobs in Indiana has ranged from outrage to adoration. There are so many layers to this Shakespearean drama that all points of views have some level of credence. I’m torn between the positive and negative aspects of this deal. If you’ve read Bastiat’s The Law and Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson, you understand the fallacies involved when government interferes in the free market. Politicians and their fanboys always concentrate on the seen aspects of government intervention, but purposely ignore the unseen consequences.
“It’s Worse Than The Great Depression” – One In Six Prime-Aged Men Has No Job
While Obama has repeatedly touted the sub-5.0% unemployment rate (4.9% most recently) as confirmation his “economic recovery” has been successful, what has received far less media attention has been the unprecedented surge in Americans no longer in the labor force, which as of August stood at a near-record 94.4 million.
And while the traditional response by economic apologists and the media has been that this number is the result of a demographic change in US society, with mostly older workers no longer in the labor pool, we have over the years argued that that is misleading, and that millions of prime-aged workers have fallen out as a result of drastic changes to America’s job market, coupled with structural lack of demand for legacy jobs, which has – for example – sent the number of employed waiters and bartenders to all time highs even as the number of manufacturing workers is lower than it was in December 2014.
Continue reading ““It’s Worse Than The Great Depression” – One In Six Prime-Aged Men Has No Job”
Actually, The US LOST 1,030 Million Jobs in July (Teachers’ Summer Break)
Guest Post by Anthony Sanders
To better understand the July Jobs report, one has to understand the seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics employs.
Nonfarm payroll jobs added in July on a seasonally adjusted basis were +255,000 in July. But the raw or NON seasonally adjusted numbers were -1,030,000 jobs. Or 1.03 million jobs lost.
Notice in the above chart that you get big downward dips in the nonfarm payroll numbers in January and July. And it repeats every year. For January, this is the release of seasonal employment for the holidays. For July, this is the transformation to summertime employment, mostly for teachers. Local government education NSA fell by -1,093,000 in July. Total PRIVATE jobs added amounted to +85,000.
Continue reading “Actually, The US LOST 1,030 Million Jobs in July (Teachers’ Summer Break)”
SOME PERSPECTIVE ON THE “FANTASTIC” JOB NUMBERS
It certainly looks like the establishment is making an all-out push to get Crooked Hillary elected. The liberal, in the bag, mainstream media is hyperventilating at each faux pas supposedly being committed by Trump. The vitriolic attacks by faux journalists on the establishment propaganda media outlets is off the charts, as 90% of these worthless talking heads, bimbos and scribblers are Democrats.
Anyone with two brain cells knows the government (aka establishment) falsifies data to achieve their agenda. They manipulate, seasonally adjust, modify, and massage the data to achieve a happy ending for the people who pay their salary. Shockingly, with three months left before the election, the employment numbers are soaring, according to the numnuts at the BLS.
Does this awesome data pass the smell test? Let’s see. GDP has been growing at 1.2% for the last year, even using the manipulated inflation deflator. In reality, GDP is really negative. Announced layoffs by the biggest companies in the US, according to Challenger, Grey and Christmas were up 19% in July versus June. The very same government reporting 255,000 new jobs in July also had to report payroll withholding taxes, which can’t be faked easily. July receipts were down 1% versus last year. According to the BLS 2.7 million more Americans were employed this July versus last July. How could tax withholding receipts possibly fall? They couldn’t. Someone is lying.
Continue reading “SOME PERSPECTIVE ON THE “FANTASTIC” JOB NUMBERS”
DEMOCRATS CREATING JOBS
5 charts that prove millennials are worse off than you are
Guest Post by Catey Hill
They’ve been called spoiled and entitled, but millennials may not be in nearly the advantaged position many think.
Millennials may be the first generation ever to have lower lifetime earnings than their predecessors, which is “in contrast to the taken-for-granted promise that each generation will do better than the last,” according to a report released this week by the U.K.-based think tank Resolution Foundation.
Indeed, the typical millennial in the U.K., which the think tank defines as aged 15 to 35, earned about 8,000 pounds (the equivalent of around $10,600) less during their 20s than did those in Generation X.
And this data isn’t the first to show that the millennial generation may be worse off than their predecessors, at least in some ways. In the U.S., more millennials than older generations graduate with student loan debt, and they tend to have more of it.
Continue reading “5 charts that prove millennials are worse off than you are”
How Machines Destroy and Create Jobs
“There’s just doesn’t seem to be many blacksmith jobs these days.”
At first glance, this would be a ridiculous thing to say. Of course there aren’t many blacksmiths around. We live in a modern society and machines do a way better job of making things from metal anyways.
However, it also raises an important point.
What if machines are better at driving long-haul trucks? What if machines are better servers at McDonald’s? What if robots did your taxes for you?
While some of these ideas are contentious today, in the future we may look back thinking that our fears were ill-placed. The truth is that the job landscape is constantly in flux as technology changes.
American teens refuse to get jobs
Fewer than one in three American teens gets a summer job
More teens than ever are shunning summer jobs.
The number of jobs that people ages 16 to 19 secured in May — the start of the summer hiring surge — was just 156,000, down 14% from last year, according to an analysis of government data by career outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released this week. And last year, the number of teens who got summer jobs was nearly 11% lower than the year prior.
That’s all part of a decades-long trend in which fewer teens than ever work summer jobs: While more than half of teenagers worked summer jobs in the 1970s and 1980s, these days fewer than one in three do, according to a survey released in 2015 by the Pew Research Center.
“The general trend in summer employment among teens has been downward and that trend has been going on since the late 1970s,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.