Tag: 1999

YOU ARE HERE

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning 

The chart below was posted by Jesse a few weeks ago. It accompanied a post titled Gathering Storm. He doesn’t specifically refer to the chart, but his words reflect the ominous view of the future depicted in the chart.

“When gold and silver finally are able, through price action, to have their say about the state of Western fiscal and monetary policy actions, it may break a few ear drums and shatter a more than a few illusions about the wisdom and honesty of the money masters. Slowly, but surely, a reckoning is coming. And what has been hidden will be revealed.”

The title of the post and the chart both grabbed my attention and provide a glimpse into the reality of our present situation. The Gathering Storm was the title of Winston Churchill’s volume one history of World War II. Churchill documents the tumultuous twenty years leading up to World War II in The Gathering Storm. The years following World War I, through the Great Depression and the rise of Hitler were abysmal, but only a prelude to the approaching horror of 65 million deaths over the next six years. What appeared to be dark days in the 1930’s were only storm clouds gathering before a once in a lifetime tempest. In my view we stand at an equally perilous point in history today.

Continue reading “YOU ARE HERE”

16 YEARS AND THIS IS ALL I GOT?

You won’t hear these facts on CNBC. They wouldn’t dare discuss anything in inflation adjusted terms. The Dow is up a measly 7.3% over the last 16 years on an inflation adjusted basis. That’s the good news. In reality, we all know the CPI is understated by at least 3% to 5%. So, in reality, the Dow is significantly negative over the last 16 years. Using a true level of inflation would show the Dow not much higher than it was in 1966 at the onset of the welfare/warfare state and before the unlinking of our fiat currency from gold.

If you were a connected insider or friend of the Fed (aka Wall Street bankers) you’ve done quite well since March 2009. But, it seems that once the QE spigot was turned off in October 2014, the Dow has gone nowhere fast. This faux bull market is dying of old age and lack of Fed injected fiat. It’s a long way down to long term support.


Chart of the Day

The Dow is currently trading 4% below its May 19th all-time record high. For some perspective, today’s chart illustrates the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900 — there are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half later, the inflation-adjusted Dow is up a mere 7.3%. That is not altogether an impressive performance considering that over 16 years have passed. On the other hand, take the investor who bought right at the end of the financial crisis. The inflation-adjusted Dow is up a significant 119% from its financial crisis lows — not bad for a for a seven year investment. More recently, the inflation-adjusted Dow has broken below support of a trend that has existed since the end of the financial crisis induced bear market.


WHY RETAILERS ARE CLOSING THOUSANDS OF STORES – SUMMARIZED IN ONE CHART

It’s too bad 98% of the people in this country are math challenged. The storyline of retail recovery is false. It will continue to be false based on pure mathematics and demographics. The fact is that REAL retail sales, adjusted for population growth, are at the same level as 1999 and still 5.3% below the debt induced peak in June 2005. That doesn’t sound catastrophic until you take into account that delusional retail CEO’s across the land added 3 BILLION square feet of new retail space since 1999, bringing total retail square footage up to 15 BILLION. That is approximately 50 square feet of retail space per person in the U.S.

Retailers judge themselves upon sales per square foot. If you add 25% more square feet and achieve the same level of sales, guess what happens to profits? When you see the MSM crowing about Home Depot’s tremendous sales and profits, they fail to mention that they are still lower than they were in 2007. Retail sales have peaked for this cycle and are headed down. With 10,000 Boomers per day turning 65 years old with no savings, the future for retail gets bleaker by the day. There have been quite a few announcements of store closings by major well known retailers in the last few months, but we are only in the 2nd inning of this ball game. It won’t be over until the 15 Billion square feet is whittled down to 10 Billion square feet. If you were thinking of buying JC Penney, Sears or RadioShack stock, you might want to think twice about it.

The best investment today would be in the company that makes SPACE AVAILABLE signs.