Tag: 2023 recession

The Unfolding Recession & The Coup

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

I understand that Socrates has forecast what is the opposite of every economic theory out there. It shows a recession has been unfolding since May, but this is on the aggregate level. On top of that, we have a Panic Cycle next year in 2024 in GDP. When I drill down into its forecasts per state, what becomes painfully apparent is what I have been writing about. There is a massive migration from blue states to red states initiated by COVID-19 but accelerated by tax increases. Thus, real estate is declining in the blue states, and those who didn’t want to move because of the higher mortgage rates will find their houses unsalable regardless of the mortgage rates. This will be particularly true in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, and Los Angeles, to mention a few. They had their chance. With the onslaught of migrants into those areas, those cities are raising taxes to cope with the aliens who pay no taxes.

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10 Red Flags Warn Of Looming Recession

Authored by Al Lewis via TheMessenger.com,

Economists have practically sounded the all-clear on a looming recession, but plenty of signs are still flashing red.

Clearly, economists were wrong earlier this year when they forecast an economic contraction that has yet to manifest. Could they be wrong now?

To be sure, economic growth, the labor market and consumer spending have proven unexpectedly resilient in the face of rising interest rates and elevated inflation. But there are still plenty of signs a recession might still be on its way.

1. An “uncertain outlook” from leading indicators

Many mainstay economic indicators measure the past. So-called leading indicators reflect what likely lies ahead.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index for July marked its 16th consecutive drop and its longest losing streak since the run-up to the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008.

“The outlook remains highly uncertain,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board.

“The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead.”

The index is based on 10 components, ranging from stock prices and interest rates to unemployment claims and consumer expectations for business conditions.

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Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes

Via ZeroHedge

A large swath of American consumers are facing financial hardship as they grapple with elevated living costs, record-high credit card use, and two years of negative real wage growth. This perfect storm could decimate financially fragile households in the next downturn.

As many as 89.1 million American adults (or about 38.5%) were found to experience some form of difficulty in covering expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from the Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 34.4% in 2022 and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

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Corporate layoffs are a warning sign of coming ‘economic crash landing’: economist

Via Just the News

Companies have been cutting thousands of jobs as experts warn of a likely recession, despite Biden’s dismissal of such concerns.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about inflation and the economy in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus May 10, 2022 in Washington, DC.

Three days after President Biden said the country’s “not anywhere near a recession right now,” Amazon founder and Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos warned a sharp economic downturn is looming.

“The economy does not look great right now,” Bezos told CNN on Saturday. “Things are slowing down. You’re seeing layoffs in many, many sectors of the economy. The probabilities say if we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon.”

The billionaire entrepreneur declined to estimate how long he thinks the recession would last but cautioned people to prepare for a time of economic struggle.

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FOURTH TURNING WINTER OF DEATH

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Worst Storms of All Time - The Ground Blizzard of 1977 - WorldAtlas

“Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

It was less than a year ago on December 16, 2021 when our dementia patient in chief was instructed by his handlers to lie, obfuscate and demonize critical thinking Americans who refused to become victims of the Big Pharma, Fauci promoted, untested, unsafe, ineffective gene therapy by declaring “we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated — for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm”. Biden’s vaccine mandates were overturned in the courts. The unvaccinated did not die from Covid. Very few people died from Covid. Some really old and infirm people on death’s doorstep died with Covid. Some very unhealthy obese people died with Covid. But even 95% of the old and unhealthy survived Covid.

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