The Next Supply Chain Crisis?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

yemen houthi 770x385@2xThe kids Obama attempted to bomb in Yemen all those years ago grew up fast. They’ve now formed surprisingly efficient militias who hate the West and have become powerful enough to impact global trade. Yemeni Houthi rebels are blocking carriers from passing through the Suez Canal and have created near pandemic-level disruptions to the supply chain.

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GRADUALLY, THEN SUDDENLY

“How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Gradually, then suddenly”: How the Protecting Our Democracy Act addresses institutional decay | ACS

“I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty.” – John Adams

Hemingway’s famous quote about going bankrupt connects with so many because it is true on a personal basis and a civilization basis. It applies to individuals and empires in decline – like the American democracy. John Adams realized two centuries ago democracy was no better than monarchy or aristocracy over the long haul. We were handed a Republic by Franklin and his fellow revolutionaries, but we failed to keep it almost from the very birth of this nation.

As we rush towards our World War 3 rendezvous with destiny, aided and abetted by politicians placed in power by globalist billionaires hellbent on the destruction of our way of life, so they own everything and you own nothing, I can’t help but ponder who is to blame and could we have avoided this dystopian outcome.

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QOTD: WIDESPREAD & GROWING or MINOR NUISANCE

I did my weekly grocery shopping this morning. I was able to buy everything I needed. But I certainly noticed some supply issues with particular products. The chicken section was depleted, with no packages of chicken breasts, cutlets or tenders. There were signs saying the limit was 3 packages of chicken. Meanwhile, the beef and pork section were fully stocked.

For the second week in a row, the canned cat food section shelves were completely empty. This is the only section at my local Wal-Mart which was bare.

When covid first entered the picture in March 2020, the demand for cleaning products and toilet paper skyrocketed, causing shortages. There currently is not a demand problem causing these shortages. This is strictly a supply issue.

Question #1 – Have you noticed shortages at your local retailers and are they widespread or sporatic?

Question #2 – Do you think these shortages will grow or be rectified shortly?

Question #3 – Are those in power purposely trying to create havoc and chaos in the supply chain as part of their Great Reset agenda?

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Two Shortages That Threaten To Absolutely Eviscerate The Global Economy In 2022

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

This was supposed to be the year that things “got back to normal”, but here we are at the end of January and things have only gotten worse.

As we move forward into February and beyond, there are two key global shortages that we are going to want to keep a very close eye on.

One of them is the rapidly growing fertilizer shortage.  A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ominously warned that “high fertilizer prices are weighing on farmers across the developing world”…

From South America’s avocado, corn and coffee farms to Southeast Asia’s plantations of coconuts and oil palms, high fertilizer prices are weighing on farmers across the developing world, making it much costlier to cultivate and forcing many to cut back on production.

That means grocery bills could go up even more in 2022, following a year in which global food prices rose to decade highs. An uptick would exacerbate hunger—already acute in some parts of the world because of pandemic-linked job losses—and thwart efforts by politicians and central bankers to subdue inflation.

According to the International Fertilizer Development Center, exceedingly high fertilizer prices could result in a reduction of agricultural output in Africa alone “equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people”.

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The Supply Chain Nightmare Continues – China Shuts Down Ports Thanks To COVID

Via The Blue State Conservative

During the 2020 presidential campaign, talk show host Sean Hannity, the investigative reporter, and author Peter Schweizer, plus countless others, warned America about Joe and Hunter Biden’s support and involvement with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Following Biden’s election a year ago, the administration’s mismanagement of COVID via vaccine mandates has made it difficult to find the labor to operate shipping ports. In addition, the truck drivers are staying home in protest of the vaccine mandates, hampering the movement of the products when eventually unloaded.

In reaction to the much less deadly Omicron variant, the CCP has nevertheless decided to shut down major shipping ports, which is guaranteed to significantly disrupt the global supply of everyday products worldwide.

Zero Hedge reported on the coming Biden crisis on Thursday.

And, as we have also discussed in recent weeks, one place where this growth slowdown is emerging – besides the upcoming deterioration in US consumption where spending is now being funded to record rates by credit cards before it encounters a troubling air pocket – is China and its “covid-zero” policy in general, and its covid-locked down ports in particular.

But what until recently was a minority view confined to our modest website, has since expanded, and as Bloomberg writes overnight, the effects of restrictions in China as the country maintains its Covid-zero policy “are starting to hit supply chains in the region.”

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The Anecdotes of an American Nobody at the End of Things

By Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com

 

No man has been shattered by the blows of Fortune unless he was first deceived by her favours. Those who loved her gifts as if they were their own forever, who wanted to be admired on account of them, are laid low and grieve when the false and transient pleasures desert their vain and childish minds, ignorant of every stable pleasure. But the man who is not puffed up in good times does not collapse either when they change. His fortitude is already tested and he maintains a mind unconquered in the face of either condition: for in the midst of prosperity he has tried his own strength against adversity.

– Seneca

 

You say, ‘I am rich; I have acquired wealth and do not need a thing.’ But you do not realize that you are wretched, pitiful, poor, blind and naked.

– Revelation 3:17

 

There is no denying the Creature from Jekyll Island is a snake eating its own tail. Unfortunately, the tail is the entire world and it was devoured slow and sure:  banking, Wall Street, sovereign governments, international corporations, and, now, Main Street and entire populations around the globe.

It’s been a year and a few days since The Great Reset officially began on November 3, 2020. That was when a handful of Democrat Party controlled precincts, in Democrat Party controlled cities, in key electoral swing states, all stopped counting votes in the middle of the night.  Forgetting that Trump received more votes than any other president in history and Sleepy Joe was said to have received even more votes with the winning margins secured in those Democrat-controlled precincts – the unbelievable irony is now this: Those who believe Biden is a legitimate president consider those who disagree with that consensus as believers of “The Big Lie”.

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SUPPLY CHAIN ANECDOTE

Guest Post by Hardscrabble Farmer

I have been buying my spices from these guys for as long as I can remember for sausage making, etc. Great quality fair prices, huge variety and selection of hard to come by ingredients.

www.spicejungle.com

This morning I am placing all my orders for the winter work ahead and stocking up where I think we may have need just in case.

He said that they have holes in their inventory all over the board. Don’t know when they are getting more, don’t know if they are getting more. He used the term supply chain issues.

I know the guy I order from and at the beginning of the call he said- don’t blame me.

Anecdotal, I know.

I’m A Twenty Year Truck Driver, I Will Tell You Why America’s “Shipping Crisis” Will Not End

Guest Post by Ryan Johnson

I have a simple question for every ‘expert’ who thinks they understand the root causes of the shipping crisis:

Why is there only one crane for every 50–100 trucks at every port in America?

No ‘expert’ will answer this question.

I’m a Class A truck driver with experience in nearly every aspect of freight. My experience in the trucking industry of 20 years tells me that nothing is going to change in the shipping industry.

Let’s start with understanding some things about ports. Outside of dedicated port trucking companies, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers. There is a reason for that.

Think of going to the port as going to WalMart on Black Friday, but imagine only ONE cashier for thousands of customers. Think about the lines. Except at a port, there are at least THREE lines to get a container in or out. The first line is the ‘in’ gate, where hundreds of trucks daily have to pass through 5–10 available gates. The second line is waiting to pick up your container. The third line is for waiting to get out.

For each of these lines the wait time is a minimum of an hour, and I’ve waited up to 8 hours in the first line just to get into the port. Some ports are worse than others, but excessive wait times are not uncommon. It’s a rare day when a driver gets in and out in under two hours. By ‘rare day’, I mean maybe a handful of times a year. Ports don’t even begin to have enough workers to keep the ports fluid, and it doesn’t matter where you are, coastal or inland port, union or non-union port, it’s the same everywhere.

Furthermore, I’m fortunate enough to be a Teamster — a union driver — an employee paid by the hour. Most port drivers are ‘independent contractors’, leased onto a carrier who is paying them by the load. Whether their load takes two hours, fourteen hours, or three days to complete, they get paid the same, and they have to pay 90% of their truck operating expenses (the carrier might pay the other 10%, but usually less.) The rates paid to non-union drivers for shipping container transport are usually extremely low. In a majority of cases, these drivers don’t come close to my union wages. They pay for all their own repairs and fuel, and all truck related expenses. I honestly don’t understand how many of them can even afford to show up for work. There’s no guarantee of ANY wage (not even minimum wage), and in many cases, these drivers make far below minimum wage. In some cases they work 70 hour weeks and still end up owing money to their carrier.

So when the coastal ports started getting clogged up last spring due to the impacts of COVID on business everywhere, drivers started refusing to show up. Congestion got so bad that instead of being able to do three loads a day, they could only do one. They took a 2/3 pay cut and most of these drivers were working 12 hours a day or more. While carriers were charging increased pandemic shipping rates, none of those rate increases went to the driver wages. Many drivers simply quit. However, while the pickup rate for containers severely decreased, they were still being offloaded from the boats. And it’s only gotten worse.

Earlier this summer, both BNSF and Union Pacific Railways shut down their container yards in the Chicago area for a week for inbound containers. These are some of the busiest ports in the country. They had miles upon miles of stack (container) trains waiting to get in to be unloaded. According to BNSF, containers were sitting in the port 1/3 longer than usual, and they simply ran out of space to put them until some of the ones already on the ground had been picked up. Though they did reopen the area ports, they are still over capacity. Stack trains are still sitting loaded, all over the country, waiting to get into a port to unload. And they have to be unloaded, there is a finite number of railcars. Equipment shortages are a large part of this problem.

One of these critical shortages is the container chassis.

A container chassis is the trailer the container sits on. Cranes will load these in port. Chassis are typically container company provided, as trucking companies generally don’t have their own chassis units. They are essential for container trucking. While there are some privately owned chassis, there aren’t enough of those to begin to address the backlog of containers today, and now drivers are sitting around for hours, sometimes days, waiting for chassis.

The impact of the container crisis now hitting residencies in proximity to trucking companies. Containers are being pulled out of the port and dropped anywhere the drivers can find because the trucking company lots are full. Ports are desperate to get containers out so they can unload the new containers coming in by boat. When this happens there is no plan to deliver this freight yet, they are literally just making room for the next ship at the port. This won’t last long, as this just compounds the shortage of chassis. Ports will eventually find themselves unable to move containers out of the port until sitting containers are delivered, emptied, returned, or taken to a storage lot (either loaded or empty) and taken off the chassis there so the chassis can be put back into use. The priority is not delivery, the priority is just to clear the port enough to unload the next boat.

What happens when a container does get to a warehouse?

A large portion of international containers must be hand unloaded because the products are not on pallets. It takes a working crew a considerable amount of time to do this, and warehouse work is usually low wage. A lot of it is actually only temp staffed. Many full time warehouse workers got laid off when the pandemic started, and didn’t come back. So warehouses, like everybody else, are chronically short staffed.

When the port trucker gets to the warehouse, they have to wait for a door (you’ve probably seen warehouse buildings with a bank of roll-up doors for trucks on one side of the building.) The warehouses are behind schedule, sometimes by weeks. After maybe a 2 hour wait, the driver gets a door and drops the container — but now often has to pick up an empty, and goes back to the port to wait in line all over again to drop off the empty.

At the warehouse, the delivered freight is unloaded, and it is usually separated and bound to pallets, then shipped out in much smaller quantities to final destination. A container that had a couple dozen pallets of goods on it will go out on multiple trailers to multiple different destinations a few pallets at a time.

From personal experience, what used to take me 20–30 minutes to pick up at a warehouse can now take three to four hours. This slowdown is warehouse management related: very few warehouses are open 24 hours, and even if they are, many are so short staffed it doesn’t make much difference, they are so far behind schedule. It means that as a freight driver, I cannot pick up as much freight in a day as I used to, and since I can’t get as much freight on my truck, the whole supply chain is backed up. Freight simply isn’t moving.

It’s important to understand what the cost implications are for consumers with this lack of supply in the supply chain. It’s pure supply and demand economics. Consider volume shipping customers who primarily use ‘general freight’, which is the lowest cost shipping and typically travels in a ‘space available’ fashion. They have usually been able to get their freight moved from origination to delivery within two weeks. Think about how you get your packages from Amazon. Even without paying for Prime, you usually get your stuff in a week. The majority of freight travels at this low cost, ‘no guarantee of delivery date’ way, and for the most part it’s been fine for both shippers and consumers. Those days are coming to an end.

People who want their deliveries in a reasonable time are going to have to start paying premium rates. There will be levels of priority, and each increase in rate premium essentially jumps that freight ahead of all the freight with lower or no premium rates. Unless the lack of shipping infrastructure is resolved, things will back up in a cascading effect to the point where if your products are going general freight, you might wait a month or two for delivery. It’s already starting. If you use truck shipping in any way, you’ve no doubt started to see the delays. Think about what’s going to happen to holiday season shipping.

What is going to compel the shippers and carriers to invest in the needed infrastructure? The owners of these companies can theoretically not change anything and their business will still be at full capacity because of the backlog of containers. The backlog of containers doesn’t hurt them. It hurts anyone paying shipping costs — that is, manufacturers selling products and consumers buying products. But it doesn’t hurt the owners of the transportation business — in fact the laws of supply and demand mean that they are actually going to make more money through higher rates, without changing a thing. They don’t have to improve or add infrastructure (because it’s costly), and they don’t have to pay their workers more (warehouse workers, crane operators, truckers).

The ‘experts’ want to say we can do things like open the ports 24/7, and this problem will be over in a couple weeks. They are blowing smoke, and they know it. Getting a container out of the port, as slow and aggravating as it is, is really the easy part, if you can find a truck and chassis to haul it. But every truck driver in America can’t operate 24/7, even if the government suspends Hours Of Service Regulations (federal regulations determining how many hours a week we can work/drive), we still need to sleep sometime. There are also restrictions on which trucks can go into a port. They have to be approved, have RFID tags, port registered, and the drivers have to have at least a TWIC card (Transportation Worker Identification Credential from the federal Transportation Security Administration). Some ports have additional requirements. As I have already said, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers with a 100 foot pole. What we have is a system with a limited amount of trucks and qualified drivers, many of whom are already working 14 hours a day (legally, the maximum they can), and now the supposed fix is to have them work 24 hours a day, every day, and not stop until the backlog is cleared. It’s not going to happen. It is not physically possible. There is no “cavalry” coming. No trucking companies are going to pay to register their trucks to haul containers for something that is supposedly so “short term,” because these same companies can get higher rate loads outside the ports. There is no extra capacity to be had, and it makes NO difference anyway, because If you can’t get a container unloaded at a warehouse, having drivers work 24/7/365 solves nothing.

What it will truly take to fix this problem is to run EVERYTHING 24/7: ports (both coastal and domestic),trucks, and warehouses. We need tens of thousands more chassis, and a much greater capacity in trucking.

Before the pandemic, through the pandemic, and really for the whole history of the freight industry at all levels, owners make their money by having low labor costs — that is, low wages and bare minimum staffing. Many supply chain workers are paid minimum wages, no benefits, and there’s a high rate of turnover because the physical conditions can be brutal (there aren’t even bathrooms for truckers waiting hours at ports because the port owners won’t pay for them. The truckers aren’t port employees and port owners are only legally required to pay for bathroom facilities for their employees. This is a nationwide problem). For the whole supply chain to function efficiently every point has to be working at an equal capacity. Any point that fails bottlenecks the whole system. Right now, it’s ALL failing spectacularly TOGETHER, but fixing one piece won’t do anything. It ALL needs to be fixed, and at the same time.

How do you convince truckers to work when their pay isn’t guaranteed, even to the point where they lose money?

Nobody is compelling the transportation industries to make the needed changes to their infrastructure. There are no laws compelling them to hire the needed workers, or pay them a living wage, or improve working conditions. And nobody is compelling them to buy more container chassis units, more cranes, or more storage space. This is for an industry that literally every business in the world is reliant on in some way or another.

My prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the problem. They literally just won’t pay to solve the problem. At the point we are at now, things are so backed up that the backups THEMSELVES are causing container companies, ports, warehouses, and trucking companies to charge massive rate increases for doing literally NOTHING. Container companies have already decreased the maximum allowable times before containers have to be back to the port, and if the congestion is so bad that you can’t get the container back into the port when it is due, the container company can charge massive late fees. The ports themselves will start charging massive storage fees for not getting containers out on time — storage charges alone can run into thousands of dollars a day. Warehouses can charge massive premiums for their services, and so can trucking companies. Chronic understaffing has led to this problem, but it is allowing these same companies to charge ten times more for regular services. Since they’re not paying the workers any more than they did last year or five years ago, the whole industry sits back and cashes in on the mess it created. In fact, the more things are backed up, the more every point of the supply chain cashes in. There is literally NO incentive to change, even if it means consumers have to do holiday shopping in July and pay triple for shipping.

This is the new normal. All brought to you by the ‘experts’ running our supply chains.

Bare Shelves Will Make This A Merry Nothing-mas

Guest Post by Kurt Schlichter

Bare Shelves Will Make This A Merry Nothing-mas

This holiday season, we all have to look forward to the faces of sad kids gathered around the Christmas tree, or Hanukkah menorah, or the Kwanzaa hammer and sickle as we must tell them that their favorite holiday is a bust because America can’t get the stuff it needs from China. Even leftists’ kids, to the extent the leftists managed the mechanics of breeding, will be disappointed that Santa Marx will not be coming down the chimney, redistributing presents on what our beloved Veep Kamala Harris explained was her favorite childhood holiday.

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These Supply Chain Snarls Could Cancel Christmas (and Worse)

From Birch Gold Group

These Supply Chain Snarls Could Cancel Christmas (and Worse)

You might think after almost two years of endless mainstream media coverage blaming the coronavirus for everything, rounds of economic stimulus, and inflation that we might get to enjoy a somewhat peaceful Christmas in 2021.

But it appears that thanks to severe supply chain logistical snafus and other more complex issues, what you might expect to exist on store shelves simply won’t be there.

Want something delivered for Christmas? Good luck! Might not get there in time, if it arrives at all. The food you want to pick up for that good ole’ fashioned holiday dinner? Might not be on the shelf at the grocery stores when you go shopping.

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Are the US Supply Chain Disruptions Deliberate?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo may have accidentally leaked the cause of America’s supply chain issues. “The reality is the only way we’re going to get to a place where we work through this transition is if everyone in America and everyone around the world gets vaccinated,” Adeyemo admitted in an interview with ABC News. Starve them out, let the dissenters suffer, and those who bought into this agenda will turn against them. Adeyemo said that the Biden Administration has already provided “the resources the American people need to make it to the other side.” Basically, everyone should give into the vaccine mandate or face the consequences. They are masking authoritarianism as utilitarianism. The vaccine has not been mandated at the federal level in the US, yet, but it is apparent that the government plans to make life as difficult as possible for those who do not obey.

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The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog – Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here’s Why

Submitted by Dirtperson Steve

Via Conservative Treehouse

Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog.  So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand.  The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest in distracting from the issues at hand.  This has nothing to do with COVID-19.

The issues being discussed today relate to events that happened a long time ago.  As a matter of fact, it was so predictable that Amazon, Walmart, UPS, FedEx, Samsung, The Home Depot and Target all had taken actions years ago -long before COVID- because they knew this day would come.  It was not accidental that those companies showed up at the White House to discuss the issue, because there’s now a full court press to hide it.

There is one very specific regional issue driving the problem.  Read on:

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Before They Were An Inconvenience, But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Have you noticed that store shelves are starting to get emptier and emptier?  During the panic shopping that was sparked by the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020, there were very intense shortages of certain items, but those shortages did not last very long at all.  But now there are widespread shortages in just about every sector of our economy, and they are starting to become quite painful.  Unfortunately, we are being told to expect the shortages to intensify as we head into the holiday season.  That is extremely alarming, because in many areas the shortages are already quite severe.

I had been away from the news for a couple of days, and when I came back there were lots more stories about our ongoing shortages.  For example, the following comes from an excellent piece by Matt Stoller

There are shortages in everything from ocean shipping containers to chlorine tablets to railroad capacity to black pipe (the piping that houses wires inside buildings) to spicy chicken breasts to specialized plastic bags necessary for making vaccines. Moreover, prices for all sorts of items, from housing to food, are changing in weird ways. Beef, for instance, is at near record highs for consumers, but cattle ranchers are getting paid much less than they used to for their cows.

In my entire life, I have never seen anything like this.

Even the Federal Reserve is admitting that we have a major problem at this point.  In fact, in the latest Beige Book the Fed referred to the shortages a whopping 80 times.

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Doug Casey on the Real Story Behind Collapsing Supply Chains and What it Means for You

Via International Man

supply chain disruptions

International Man: The COVID hysteria and the shutdowns have caused supply chain disruptions. Central bankers and the media were quick to pin the blame for soaring inflation on these disruptions.

It seems like sophistry—a fallacious argument with the intention of deceiving. What is really going on here?

Doug Casey: Government officials always want to be seen as smart and action-oriented. Whenever anything untoward happens, they like to step up and pretend to be saviors.

Today’s public thinks that the government not only can but should run the world. The COVID hysteria is a custom-made excuse for them to do so. Unlike people who produce actual goods and services, however, government employees can only take other people’s property and tell them what to do.

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