QUOTES OF THE DAY

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Posted on 31st August 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

QUOTES OF THE DAY

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Posted on 10th August 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet in this time of trouble will be seeds of social rebirth. American will share a regret about recent mistakes–and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Then, sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.”

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort–in other words, a total war…”

“History’s howling storms can bring out the worst and best in people. The next Fourth Turning can literally destroy us as a nation and people, leaving us cursed in the histories of those who endure and remember. Alternatively, it can ennoble our lives, elevate us as a community, and inspire acts of consummate heroism–deeds that will grow into mythlike legends recited by our heirs far into the future.”

Strauss & Howe


Sign of the Bear: The Demise of Conspicuous Consumption

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Posted on 8th August 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Fourth Turnings are driven by changes in the social mood. The rise of Donald Trump is a reflection of a huge change in the social mood in the US. The widening gap between the .1% and the 99.9% around the world is resulting in further changes in the social mood. It’s impacting China, Europe and the U.S. As financial markets around the world begin to crash under the weight of the massive debts created by central bankers and politicians, the social mood will turn downright nasty. Civil strife, revolutions, and war are just over the horizon. Fourth Turnings always intensify. Always.

Guest Post by

Luxury Goods and Status Symbols in Trouble in China

A friend recently mailed us an article from the Hong Kong Standard which describes how extremely high retail shop rents in Hong Kong can no longer be paid even by retailers of luxury brands.

 

gucci hong kongGucci store in Hong Kong, Central

Photo via flickr

 

Not only is this testament to the fact that Hong Kong’s real estate bubble has gotten out of hand quite a bit, but the waning demand for luxury goods is also highly interesting from a sociological and economic perspective. As the Standard reports:

 

Business is getting tougher for Hong Kong’s retailers with the value of total retail sales dipping 1.6 percent in the first half of 2015 from a year back, according to the Census and Statistics Department’s latest data.

Valuable gifts, including jewelry, watches and luxury goods, were hardest hit, with sales falling for 10 consecutive months. Sales value slumped 10.4 percent in June compared with a year earlier, despite efforts by several luxury brands – including Italian fashion house Prada – to boost sales by cutting prices. Squeezed by slimmer pickings in Hong Kong and the mainland market, top global luxury brands are looking to renegotiate store rents to cut costs.

The latest to plead for landlords’ mercy was French luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. Revenue from its signature brand Louis Vuitton slumped 10 percent year- on-year in Hong Kong, Macau and China for the first half while Europe and the United States saw stronger sales of fashion and leather goods. It is also planning to close a directly operated shop of its biggest watch brand, Tag Heuer, in Causeway Bay.

[…]

British high-end fashion house Burberry, which has 16 shops in the SAR, said it may trim its local store network and negotiate for lower rents after the Hong Kong market, which accounts for about one-tenth of the brand’s total sales, saw a double-digit percentage fall in sales over the period.

Meanwhile, Gucci owner Kering said it will consider closing its Hong Kong and Macau outlets if rents stay high.

[…]

Waning sales and whopping rents have sent Italian fashion label Baldinini packing. It shut its first and only flagship boutique in Hong Kong after just four months in operation, ending its three- year contract.

In June, visitor arrivals from the mainland were down 1.8 percent year- on-year. Adding to the woes of luxury goods vendors are the changing spending patterns of mainland visitors, who are now looking for more mid-priced products.

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CHINA JUST SHIT THE BED

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Posted on 27th July 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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China shit the bed overnight. The shit is now hitting the fan. Shit is fucked up and bullshit. I’m not shitting you.

Stock markets don’t fall by 8.5% in one day unless there is some major shit happening beneath the surface. A comparable drop in the US stock market would be 1,500 points. Do you think a few Wall Street assholes would shit their pants if that happened? Do you think there would be a few margin calls as that shitty scenario played out?

Here’s the deal. The Chinese authorities have attempted everything they could possibly do to stop their over-leveraged, over-bought, over-hyped, corrupt, fraudulent markets from falling. They have threatened imprisonment for selling, disallowed short selling, stopped allowing trading on thousands of company stocks, and propped up their markets with trillions of yuan poured into the gaping hole.

Between the end of June and early July, the Chinese government announced at least 40 measures to prop up the market, including an interest-rate cut by the central bank and establishing a stabilization fund to outright buy stocks. All together, Chinese authorities are estimated to have mobilized as much as 5 trillion yuan, almost 10% of the gross domestic product, to halt panic sales.

It’s all been for naught. Fear is now trumping greed. The infallibility of central bank manipulators is being revealed to be false. They are nothing but money printing academic fools doing the bidding of greedy bankers and corrupt politicians. This is only the beginning of the end. There are thousands of points to go, billions to vaporize, and millions of lives to be ruined.

Welcome to the Fourth Turning. No shit.

Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down

Tyler Durden's picture

This was not supposed to happen.

After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China’s stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

The selling was steady throughout the day, but spiked in the last hour on concerns China would rein in its market-supporting programs following IMF demands to normalize its relentless market intervention. According to Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow: “fear that the extraordinary support measures employed to hold up the market may be scaled back caused heavy afternoon selling resulting in a down 8.5% day.” Of course, one can come up with any number of theories to explain the plunge: for example the PBOC did not buy enough to offset the relentless selling.

 

The last thing the communist party and the PBOC wanted was another massive sell off after having not only fired the “bazooka” but come up with a different bazooka to halt “malicious sellers” virtually every day, including threats of arrest.

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NO!!!

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Posted on 5th July 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Looks like the majority of Greeks are voting to say FUCK YOU to the EU bankers, tyrants, and corporate fascists. Of course, sometimes it doesn’t matter how the people voted. It’s who’s counting the votes.

Don’t let the MSM convince you this is no big deal. This is the first domino. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and France are also insolvent. German and French banks are loaded with Greek debt. A NO vote by the Greeks will give courage to people in Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland to tell the bankers to go fuck themselves. 

This is likely to be a trigger event for the next phase of the Fourth Turning. The people versus the bankers and technocrats. Blood will start to spill. Wars will begin. Are you ready?

Greek Referendum Polls Close: “No” Seen Ahead By Most

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At 7pm local time the Referendum polls closed. Here is what the early forecasts predict:

  • A poll by GPO on Mega TV gave 51.5% in favor of “no” and 48.5% in for “yes”
  • Metron Analysis on Antenna TV showed “no” leading with 52% vs 48% for “yes”
  • MRB on Star TV showed “no” leading with 49%-54% vs 46%-51% for “yes”
  • Marc opinion poll for Alpha TV shows “no” ahead with 49.5%-54.5% vs 45.5%-50.5%

(live feed)

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CONSUMERS NOT FOLLOWING ORDERS

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Posted on 14th June 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Last week the government reported personal income and spending for April. After months of blaming non-existent consumer spending on cold weather, shockingly occurring during the Winter, the captured mainstream media pundits, Ivy League educated Wall Street economist lackeys, and Keynesian loving money printers at the Fed have run out of propaganda to explain why Americans are not spending money they don’t have. The corporate mainstream media is now visibly angry with the American people for not doing what the Ivy League propagated Keynesian academic models say they should be doing.

The ultimate mouthpiece for the banking cabal, Jon Hilsenrath, who does the bidding of the Federal Reserve at the Rupert Murdoch owned Wall Street Journal, wrote an arrogant, condescending, putrid diatribe, directed at the middle class victims of Wall Street banker criminality and Federal Reserve acquiescence to the vested corporate interests that run this country. Here are the more disgusting portions of his denunciation of the formerly middle class working people of America.

We know you experienced a terrible shock when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and your employer responded by firing you. 

We also know you shouldn’t have taken out that large second mortgage during the housing boom to fix up your kitchen with granite counter-tops. 

You should feel lucky you’re not a Greek consumer.

Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they’ve been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates.

We listen to Fed officials all of the time here at The Wall Street Journal, and they just can’t figure you out.

Please let us know the problem.

The Wall Street Journal was swamped with thousands of angry responses from irate real people living in the real world, not the elite, QE enriched, oligarchs living in Manhattan penthouses, mansions on the Hamptons, or luxury condos in Washington, D.C. Hilsenrath presumes to know how the average American has been impacted by the criminal actions of sycophantic Ivy League educated central bankers and their avaricious Wall Street owners.

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LOOK!!! UP IN THE SKY

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Posted on 18th May 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I don’t know anything about Martin Armstrong’s model. It is evidently an investment timing model based cycles he has figured out over time. His cycles seem to be in sync with the Fourth Turning cycle. The Fourth Turning regeneration moment has yet to occur. Armstrong’s model predicts a major crash sometime around September 2015 which will begin a dangerous phase that will begin the violent portion of this Fourth Turning. Nothing gets resolved until the 2020’s. Humans never change. The human life cycle never changes. Human faults and strengths never change. The human need to be part of the herd never changes. The fact that the herd is always wrong is always ignored by the majority until it is too late. Humans never learn.

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” – Aldous Huxley

 

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Milgram-Experiment

We all have our individual cycles of life. As we grow older we hopefully learn from our mistakes. We will buy the high as we get caught up and see the herd is all buying and that creates confidence to rush in and buy the high. If you are smart, you will then realize that the herd is always wrong. With experience, you will become the person who sells the high when the others rush in to buy the top. We are hard-wired to also act as a herd and some of us will never learn, which is the majority. In 1968, the social psychologists Stanley Milgram, Leonard Bickman, and Lawrence Berkowitz decided to test the herd instinct in humans and put a single person on a street corner and had him look up at an empty sky for sixty seconds. A tiny fraction of the passing pedestrians stopped to see what the guy was looking at, but most just walked past. Next time around, the psychologists put five skyward-looking men on the corner. This time, four times as many people stopped to gaze at the empty sky. When the psychologists put fifteen men on the corner, 45 percent of all passers by stopped, and increasing the cohort of observers yet again made more than 80 per cent of pedestrians tilt their heads and look up.

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JUST BEFORE THE LAST FOURTH TURNING

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Posted on 29th April 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Via Knuckledraggin


BURN IT DOWN

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Posted on 18th March 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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It seems things are falling apart across Europe. I guess this means the little people aren’t all that happy with the ECB solution of saving bankers and billionaires while throwing them under the bus. The barbed wire is a nice touch by the German security forces. I understand they are very good at using barbed wire to control the population. Europe will burn. War is inevitable. The debt house of cards is crumbling. The people are angry. Revolution is in the air. Burn it to the ground. Aren’t Fourth Turnings fun?

Violent Clashes Break Out Next To New ECB Headquarters In Frankfurt As Thousands Protest Austerity: Live Webcast

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It’s not just Greece which is protesting the utter lack of reforms enabled by the ECB known as “austerity” – as of today so is Germany itself with the so-called #Blockupy movement. According to local media reports, the start of anti-austerity rallies in Frankfurt coincided with the European Central Bank opening its new headquarters, whose occupants are now besieged by tens of thousands of protesters, so perhaps #OccupyQ€ would have been more appropriate. Police said they expect around 10,000 anti-capitalist protesters, marching under the banner of leftist alliance Blockupy, to attend the rally, with a march through the city planned for later in the evening. The result is what according to a police spokesman “is one of the biggest deployments ever in the city.

As the photos below shows, several police cars have been set on fire, with windows being smashed and demonstrators throwing stones at police ahead of the massive demonstration on Wednesday, and as riots break out across Frankfurt even as thousands of police respond with water cannon, pepper spray and mass arrests.

View image on Twitter

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Russia Escalates Military Posture: Deploys Strategic Bombers To Crimea, Launches Massive Drills Across Nation

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Posted on 17th March 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Fourth Turnings lead to total war. Remember that.

Tyler Durden's picture

All those who were wondering where Putin had “disappeared” to, and spreading rumors whether it was more likely his girlfriend had given birth in Switzerland or aliens had abducted him, will probably be satisfied if he were to promptly disappear once more following news that not only yesterday had he put 40,000 troops on full alert as part of “snap-readiness exercises”, but less than 24 hours followed this up with even more demonstrative military “drills” after Sputnik reported that Russian strategic Tu-22M3 (Backfire) strike bombers have been deployed to the Crimean Peninsula to hold snap combat readiness drills, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday, in addition to further massive troops and equipment deployment tests in the western part of the nation as well as around the Arctic circle.

As a reminder, Crimea was recently in the news following a weekend report citing Putin that he was ready to use nukes to secure the recently repossessed peninsula. So one can perhaps look at this as de-escalation.

“During the snap combat readiness drills by the Armed Forces, strategic Tu-22M3s will be deployed to Crimea,” the source said.

Then, perhaps to counter the build of NATO troops in the Baltics, Russia also deployed fighters and bombers to the country’s western exclave of Kaliningrad for snap combat readiness exercises, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday.

“Fighter and bomber aviation is to be redeployed to the Kaliningrad Region, and ground troops on the Baltic will be reinforced with Iskander missile complexes in the Western Military District that will be delivered on large landing ships from the Baltic Fleet,” the source said.

On Monday, President Vladimir Putin gave the order to bring Russia’s Northern Fleet, separate units of the Western Military District and the Airborne Troops to full alert in snap combat readiness exercises. The drills involve a total of 38,000 troops, 3,360 military vehicles, 110 aircraft and helicopters, 41 ships and 15 submarines.

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Neil Howe: What To Expect From The Fourth Turning We’re Now In

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Posted on 16th March 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Neil thinks the Shit will hit the fan within the next 18 months. Take note. He is not the chicken little type. He’s a sober realist.

Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Neil Howe demographer and co-authour of the book The Fourth Turning returns to the podcast this week. In our prior interview with him, we explored his study of generational cycles (“turnings”) in America which reveal predictable social trends that recur throughout history and warn of a coming crisis (a “fourth turning”) based on this research.

Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in the markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic signs that we are well into a fourth turning now:

In the fourth turning, the supply of order is still absent that the demand for order grows. So we now have a demand for order and no supply. That creates the unusual dynamics of a fourth turning — kind of like we had in the 1930’s. People suddenly feel that no one is in control and that enormous events are overtaking their society which no one of leadership age has any idea how to confront or how to manage. And it goes without saying today we look up to Gen Xers and Boomers and we see leaders who couldn’t organize their way out of a shoe box. I live in the Washington DC area and the government and Congress literally does nothing. All they do is argue and fight and nothing gets done in this city. It’s amazing, and a great testament to the power of institutional inertia that things keep moving forward in some manner. There is this great unsettled feeling we have that there is a rudderless ship that we’re on where no one knows where it is going. We see dangers that we seem paralyzed and unable to respond to.

 

History’s fourth turnings are full of Hobson’s choices, full of grim choices. I think that the what the Fed got into — back in 2000 as well 2009, 2010 and then with QE — they got into that with a feeling of they had no choice; this is crisis intervention. And crisis intervention became a habit. And ultimately we got here not because anyone kind of wanted it to happen, we just ended up here. And this is the same way it was back in the 1930’s: the same thing was true about the New Deal. The New Deal was nothing but a thorough perversion of market choices. The New Deal was nothing if not for the picking of winners and losers throughout the economy. Throughout the world at that time, that was an era of competitive devaluation. Global trade shrank down to a fraction of what it was back in the 20’s. Each country was making a decision which felt to it like survival, and nations were taking enormous collectivist measures with their economies as we were here in our own economy. And that is where we are today. I guess what I am saying is I am not surprised we are at this point. I just think that the full consequences of it have not yet been fully perceived, and I think they will be when the financial markets ultimately reflect the damage that has been done to the economy as a whole. And I think that will happen probably over the next year and a half — if it even takes that long.

 

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FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART FOUR

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Posted on 12th February 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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In Part One of this article I explained the model of generational theory as conveyed by Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning. In Part Two I provided an overwhelming avalanche of evidence this Crisis has only yet begun, with debt, civic decay and global disorder propelling the world towards the next more violent phase of this Crisis. In Part Three I addressed how the most likely clash on the horizon is between the government and the people. War on multiple fronts will thrust the world through the great gate of history towards an uncertain future.

War on Multiple Fronts

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The drumbeats of war are pounding. Sanctions are implemented against any country that dares question American imperialism (Russia, Iran). Overthrow and ignominious imprisonment or death awaits any foreign leader questioning the petrodollar or standing in the way of America spreading democracy (Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Egypt). The mega-media complex of six corporations peddle the government issued pabulum about ISIS being an existential threat to our freedoms; Russia being led by the new Hitler and poised to take over Europe; Syria gassing innocent women and children; and Iran only six months away from a nuclear bomb (they’ve been six months away for the last fourteen years). Hollywood does their part with patriotic drivel like American Sniper, designed to compel low IQ unemployed American youths to swell with pride and march down to enlistment centers, located in our plentiful urban ghettos.

The most disconcerting aspect of Fourth Turnings is they have always climaxed with total destructive all-out war. Not wars to enrich arms dealers like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, but incomprehensibly violent, brutal, wars of annihilation. There are clear winners and losers at the conclusion of Fourth Turning wars. Leaders mobilize all forces, refuse to compromise, define their enemies in moral terms, demand sacrifice on the battlefield and home front, build the most destructive weapons imaginable, and employ those weapons to obtain victory at any cost.

It may seem inconceivable that war on such a scale will happen within the next ten years, but it was equally inconceivable in 1936 that 65 million people would die in the next ten years during World War II. We valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices leading up to this Crisis and during the early stages of this Crisis. The accumulation of unmet obligations, unpaid bills, un-kept promises and unresolved issues will provide the fuel for an upheaval that will shake our society to its core and transforms the country’s direction for the next sixty years. The outcome of the conflict could be tragedy or triumph. Our choices will make a difference.

There will be war on many fronts, and they have already begun. The culmination will likely be World War III, with the outcome highly uncertain and potentially disastrous.

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