BREXIT & THE FOURTH TURNING

I took a long walk on the boardwalk with my wife and mother last night, after a long day of packing, doctor appointments, travel, unpacking, food shopping and buying enough liquor to get me through the next week. I was confident the oligarchs had the Brexit vote rigged in their favor. I went to bed exhausted at 10:00.

I wake up this morning to global pandemonium. I just wanted to ride my bike on the boardwalk in peace, but Noooo. First it was raining, so I have to wait for the showers to end. Then I flip on the radio and hear about stock markets around the world crashing because the British people grew some balls and told their keepers to fuck off.

My first thought upon hearing the news was “Fourth Turning”. It’s all about the mood of the people in these countries. The establishment is constantly baffled during Fourth Turnings because they think their old methods of propaganda, fear and control will continue to work. They don’t realize the cyclical nature of history and how the current generational configuration will lead to earth shattering change and a complete destruction of the existing social order. Brexit is just another brick in the wall.

I also find it interesting that over the last month or so some of the most renowned investing billionaires in the world have announced their bearishness and had placed large bets on such an outcome. George Soros is the perfect example. He switched his position to shorting the market recently. Then he constantly blathered in the press about what a disaster Brexit would be for global markets. Then the captured legacy media convinced the world Brexit would never happen. When it “shockingly” happened last night, stock markets around the world crashed. Soros and his billionaire cronies made hundreds of millions in profits. Meanwhile, the poor schmuck with his 401k gets clobbered again.

Since I was 100% wrong in my prediction regarding Brexit, you can take my following observations with a grain of salt. But this is what I see:

  • This further cements the coming showdown between the people and the establishment (politicians, bankers, mainstream media).
  • The EU is dead. France, Italy and other EU countries will push for the same referendum and the people will vote out.
  • The insolvent banks across Europe were never fixed. The central bankers just extended, pretended, and printed more debt. Bank failures will trigger further economic strife.
  • The credibility of central bankers around the globe will completely disintegrate as their one trick pony method of easy money has proven to be an immense failure for the people.
  • With the disintegration of the EU, the possibility of civil chaos and war with Russia goes up dramatically.
  • It will be interesting to see if the Fed and their Wall Street banker puppeteers can stop the stock market from dropping by its destined 30% to 50%. The overvaluation is drastic and this could be the Lehman moment, or at least the Bear Stearns moment.
  • The credibility of the corporate mainstream media has further disintegrated as they again have been revealed as nothing but propaganda mouthpieces for the establishment. Their anti-Brexit poll numbers were fake. They are not journalists, but cheerleaders for their corporate sponsors.
  • The constant media bashing of Trump and cheerleading for Clinton will be disregarded by the silent majority in the U.S. Their polls and opinions can be completely ignored and dismissed. The people of this country who don’t live in NYC, DC, LA, or SF are pissed off. Their mood is dark. They want change. The only person who will give them change is Trump.
  • I’m more convinced than ever that Trump will win the presidency in November. This is a Fourth Turning. The status quo never wins during a Fourth Turning.

Fourth Turnings never peter out. They intensify to a crescendo of turmoil, chaos, violence, war, and bloodshed. This Fourth Turning intensification just got turned up dramatically. It will eventually be turned up to 11.

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Apocalyptic Visions

By Theodore Darymple

Driving through France recently, we stopped for the night in the small town of Loudun.

It had that complete, and to me pleasing or even consolatory, deadness common to many small French towns, where there seems to be no activity at all, nothing ever happens except on the tiniest scale, and all dramas are strictly private.

There were a few desultory drinkers in the bar in Loudun, but that was all. Otherwise, the shutters were closed and nobody was about.

 

The quietness of a town at night has a special quality, which is more than the mere absence of sound, and it acts like a balm to the soul. During the Second World War, there was a British poster asking travelers whether the journey they were making was really necessary, nonessential travel supposedly detracting from the business of war; a French provincial town at night asks you, implicitly, whether what you are doing is really necessary. And the answer is almost invariably “No.”

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YOU ARE HERE

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning 

The chart below was posted by Jesse a few weeks ago. It accompanied a post titled Gathering Storm. He doesn’t specifically refer to the chart, but his words reflect the ominous view of the future depicted in the chart.

“When gold and silver finally are able, through price action, to have their say about the state of Western fiscal and monetary policy actions, it may break a few ear drums and shatter a more than a few illusions about the wisdom and honesty of the money masters. Slowly, but surely, a reckoning is coming. And what has been hidden will be revealed.”

The title of the post and the chart both grabbed my attention and provide a glimpse into the reality of our present situation. The Gathering Storm was the title of Winston Churchill’s volume one history of World War II. Churchill documents the tumultuous twenty years leading up to World War II in The Gathering Storm. The years following World War I, through the Great Depression and the rise of Hitler were abysmal, but only a prelude to the approaching horror of 65 million deaths over the next six years. What appeared to be dark days in the 1930’s were only storm clouds gathering before a once in a lifetime tempest. In my view we stand at an equally perilous point in history today.

Continue reading “YOU ARE HERE”

Trump: Our Only Hope for Escaping World War III

Hat tip Rise Up

 

Guest Post by

 

A moderator at the last Fox News Republican debate, questioning Donald Trump on his feelings for Vladimir Putin, showed a video where Trump says, “I think I’d get along with Vladimir Putin.” Putin has described Trump as “an outstanding and talented personality,” calling him “a brilliant and talented person, without a doubt.” In response, Trump has said, “It is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond.” Adding, “And [in my dealings with Putin] I don’t think you’d be having the kind of problems that you’re having right now.” [1]

This video displays the above “Trump-Putin ’16 Make Tyranny Great Again!” poster. It is an ad that Republican Presidential candidate John Kasich had made and paid for. (2) It mirrors the Republican Establishment’s view that Trump is too friendly with the Russian President.

112Donald Trump is the only presidential candidate, Republican or Democratic, who is not part of the political Establishment. Since he self-funds his campaign, he is not beholden to any special interest groups, especially ones in the military-industrial complex. A real estate-focused businessman and TV reality show star, he has no stake in the neoconservative effort to subdue Russia and have Washington dominate the world. Trump views U.S. wars of intervention and occupation around the world, all in countries that pose no threat to American citizens, a waste of taxpayer money. He is the only candidate in either party who will question the cost and legitimacy of our commitment to Cold War relics like NATO and continuing to station troops in S. Korea; our country’s involvement in religious civil wars in the Middle East and overthrowing and killing secular dictators there it doesn’t like (Hussein and Kaddafi); and our threatening Russia by encouraging its neighboring states of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia to join NATO and give them weapons and military guarantees to defend them.

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WINNING THE HILLARY WAY

The corporate MSM pundits are ignoring the YUUGE upset yesterday in Michigan. Bernie Sanders pulled off an epic upset and it barely gets a mention by the in-the-bag-for-Clinton corporate media. If you ever needed more proof that polls conducted by these morons are as worthless as an Obama promise, see the polls below regarding Michigan. Clinton can’t beat a died in red socialist when she has more money than the Vatican supporting her.

In a general election between Clinton and Trump, many disaffected, poor, jobless, and even union workers will vote for Trump. His anti-immigration and anti-NAFTA, anti-TPP stances will resonate with these people. Clinton is the establishment candidate.

The”experts” on MSNBC and CNN are flabbergasted. They have no clue what is happening in this country. They live in their little NYC and DC bubbles and wonder why the plebs are so angry. Don’t we know the stock market is up 200% and corporations are rolling in dough? The linear thinking ruling class are about to get the surprise of their lives. Fourth Turnings wipe away the existing social order. They won’t go without a fight, but they will be wiped away. Book it Dano.

However, while the Trump victory is making headlines, the yuuge news of the night is Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton in Michigan – against all poll expectations (with the Clinton campaign explaining “they misunderstood the electorate.” This was such a shock that CNN still wouldn’t admit it until well over 90% of the vote was in despite Sanders’ 4pt lead… Clinton had a 21pt lead in Michigan before today…


FITTING ANNIVERSARY

The Boston Massacre happened 246 years ago today. Tensions were high in this country at that time, as the tyranny of the establishment pushed the people of this country beyond the breaking point. Anyone who doesn’t feel the same tension today is either part of the establishment or too ignorant to understand what is happening. This Fourth Turning has just reached the regeneracy stage, with Trump as the Grey Champion. Now it gets really interesting. There will be blood.


FOURTH TURNING UPDATE WITH NEIL HOWE

Talk about comprehensive. Neil Howe gives his opinion about everything he thinks will happen in this crucial year of 2016. He isn’t optimistic. He is in the midst of writing a new book called The First Turning. I hope we make it there.

Via John Mauldin

The Big Picture

January 2016 Report

All signs point to 2016 being a momentous year on every front, from the shuddering global economy to the stormy upcoming election season. How will the world look by year’s end? BP interviewed Saeculum Research Founder and President Neil Howe to get his take on what’s ahead. (This is an expanded version of the interview we published as a Social Intelligence report on January 6, 2016.)
BP: Neil, 2016 sure began with some big headlines, didn’t it?
NH: Yes, the year began with a bang—and not in a good way. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst 5-day and 10-day start to a year in history. With the market down roughly 8%, we are suddenly back to the “correction” lows of late last summer. China’s Shanghai market entered free fall, with circuit breakers stopping trading on January 6 after only 29 minutes. Beijing had to intervene massively to keep the CNY from following suit. Meanwhile, most of the Sunni Arab nations abruptly broke off diplomatic relations with Iran. And North Korea successfully tested an H bomb, which—Dear Leader Kim Jong Un helpfully, if not quite accurately, reminded the media—“is capable of wiping out the whole territory of the U.S. all at once.”
BP: Wow. “Bang” may be just the right word. Neil, could you give us a sense of what everybody is going to be talking about in 2016?
NH: In January, analysts always predict how the economy will perform over the coming year. Now is no different, especially with the big December announcement that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points to between 0.25 and 0.5%. The Fed boldly suggests that interest rates may close in on 1.4% by the end of 2016 and 2.4% by the end of 2017. Spoiler alert: I think this is delusional. The global economy is in no condition to take this medicine. My very safe prediction is that the Fed will either stall or back down. And the risk of U.S. recession by the end of the year? It’s higher than most are estimating: I’d say roughly 50-50.
Abroad, there are signs of progress in international relations, but the overall geopolitical outlook is dangerous. The Middle East has become a maelstrom. Europeans are voting for leaders who want to dismantle Europe. Putin seems to enjoy doing whatever he damn well wants to—while boasting off-the-chart popularity ratings at home. Meanwhile, Americans are left wondering why their country no longer plays a leadership role in world affairs.
These issues only raise the stakes for the upcoming elections. Not that Americans needed more reason to pay attention: Ever since the first slate of primary debates last summer, we haven’t been able to take our eyeballs off this race. We have the prospect of seeing another Clinton in the White House, a highly polarized presidential campaign season, and—oh yeah—Donald Trump endlessly in the headlines.
BP: OK, let’s focus on the economy. You sound a bit more downbeat than most.

How A German Historian Predicted The Decline Of Western Civilization 100 Years Ago

Submitted by Hardscrabble Farmer

I stumbled upon Spengler during a period of deep introspection. The simple truths he was able to uncover in his 1918 publication The Decline of the West helped me to understand the meat-history of human cultures and how not to take everything personally. In a nutshell he pre-established the basis for 4th Turning theory and the concept of seasonality in human social orders. Today I stumbled across a very insightful piece that helps to break it down for the common man.

Via Return of Kings

How A German Historian Predicted The Decline Of Western Civilization 100 Years Ago

Is Western Civilization in Decline? I think nearly everyone in the manosphere would agree that it is.

There is a lot of discussion these days about America and the other nations comprising Western Civilization being in decline, and there is certainly a lot of evidence to support this claim. Whether it be dying populations among the Caucasian races that created the civilization, unchecked immigration rapidly replacing native populations in Europe and the United States, evidence that America is currently and has been behaving as an imperialistic empire but is now slowly losing its power around the world, a culture that seems to completely disregard the importance of family, the building block of civilization, or a loss of religiousness and sense of purpose, signs that something is wrong are everywhere.

You may be surprised to learn that many of the things that have been happening to Western Civilization were written down in a predictive model of history written by German historian and philosopher Oswald Spengler nearly 100 years ago.

Oswald Spengler, Prophet of Western Decline

That said, Spengler has his critics, as do many misunderstood geniuses. Right or wrong, most of the attacks on his civilization model are made by those who cannot see the forest for the trees. Because of this, his genius work has largely gone unrecognized in modern times. As with many truths, “… in every culture and society there are facts which tend to be suppressed collectively, because of the social and psychological costs of not doing so,” as stated by researcher Peter Dale Scott. A lot of people seem to be turned off by a predictive model of history since the psychological cost of admitting that humans are subject to the same cycles in nature as other animals is quite high.

Whether you agree with his ideas or not, they’re intellectually fascinating, and worth a look. This article only scratches the surface of Spengler’s epic civilization model.

The Four Seasons

Continue reading “How A German Historian Predicted The Decline Of Western Civilization 100 Years Ago”

1ST AMERICAN FOURTH TURNING BEGAN 242 YEARS AGO TODAY

Hat tip Boston Bob (of course)

Boston Tea Party
Eyewitness Account by a Participant

 

The tea destroyed was contained in three ships, lying near each other at what was called at that time Griffin’s wharf, and were surrounded by armed ships of war, the commanders of which had publicly declared that if the rebels, as they were pleased to style the Bostonians, should not withdraw their opposition to the landing of the tea before a certain day, the 17th day of December, 1773, they should on that day force it on shore, under the cover of their cannon’s mouth.

On the day preceding the seventeenth, there was a meeting of the citizens of the county of Suffolk, convened at one of the churches in Boston, for the purpose of consulting on what measures might be considered expedient to prevent the landing of the tea, or secure the people from the collection of the duty. At that meeting a committee was appointed to wait on Governor Hutchinson, and request him to inform them whether he would take any measures to satisfy the people on the object of the meeting.

To the first application of this committee, the Governor told them he would give them a definite answer by five o’clock in the afternoon. At the hour appointed, the committee again repaired to the Governor’s house, and on inquiry found he had gone to his country seat at Milton, a distance of about six miles. When the committee returned and informed the meeting of the absence of the Governor, there was a confused murmur among the members, and the meeting was immediately dissolved, many of them crying out, “Let every man do his duty, and be true to his country”; and there was a general huzza for Griffin’s wharf.

It was now evening, and I immediately dressed myself in the costume of an Indian, equipped with a small hatchet, which I and my associates denominated the tomahawk, with which, and a club, after having painted my face and hands with coal dust in the shop of a blacksmith, I repaired to Griffin’s wharf, where the ships lay that contained the tea. When I first appeared in the street after being thus disguised, I fell in with many who were dressed, equipped and painted as I was, and who fell in with me and marched in order to the place of our destination.

Continue reading “1ST AMERICAN FOURTH TURNING BEGAN 242 YEARS AGO TODAY”

MUSLIM QUESTION OF THE DAY

The Fourth Turning intensifies by the minute. Donald Trump has called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States. The establishment and their lackey mainstream media mouthpieces are aghast. Every time they think Trump has gone too far and has surely destroyed his campaign with an outrageous comment, he gains support. The ruling class doesn’t get the mood change in the country. They continue to think linearly. Times they are a changin. Get prepared for rocky times ahead.

Let’s get a flavor of the sentiment on TBP. Do you agree with Trump, why or why not?

 

Muslims Furious As 6 Of 8 Trump Supporters Stand Behind Muslim Travel Ban

Tyler Durden's picture

FOURTH TURNING POLL

Strauss and Howe pondered four broad outcomes to this Fourth Turning. Two are cataclysmic. One could be terrible. And one results in a new High. Those aren’t great odds. Let’s do a poll of TBPers. Which of the four scenarios do you think will happen, and why? If you have a 5th scenario, please make your case.

 

  1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
  2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
  3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
  4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning 


FOURTH TURNING – OUR RENDEZVOUS WITH DESTINY

In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I focused on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis. In Part 4 I assessed the social and cultural channels of distress dividing the nation. In Part 5 I examined the technological, ecological, political, military channels of distress likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and finally in this final part, our rendezvous with destiny, with potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.

We are now in the seventh year of this Fourth Turning. A famous quote from the seventh year of the last Fourth Turning portended the desperate, bloody and ultimately heroic trials and tribulations which awaited generations of our ancestors. What will be our rendezvous with destiny?

“There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.” Franklin Delano Roosevelt – June 27, 1936 – Philadelphia, PA

Our Rendezvous With Destiny

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning


The people have been permitting a small cadre of elitists, billionaire financiers, corporate chiefs, propagandist media moguls, and crooked politicians to make the choices dictating the path of our country since the 2008 dawn of this Fourth Turning. The choices they have made and continue to make have imperiled the world and guaranteed a far more calamitous outcome as we attempt to navigate through the trials and tribulations ahead. Their strategy to “save the country” by saving bankers, while selling the plan to the public as beneficial to all and essential to saving our economic system, has proven to be nothing more than the greatest wealth transfer scheme in human history.  The ruling class is deliberately blind to their own venality and capacity for evil.

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING – OUR RENDEZVOUS WITH DESTINY”

FOURTH TURNING – POLITICIANS DRIVING THE WORLD TOWARDS WAR

In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I focused on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis. In Part 4 I assessed the social and cultural channels of distress dividing the nation. In Part 5 I’ll examine the technological, ecological, political, and military channels of distress likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and finally in Part 6 our rendezvous with destiny, with potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.

Technological & Ecological Distress

“Technological progress has merely provided us with more efficient means for going backwards.” Aldous Huxley – Ends and Means

The level of distress being produced by technology was probably underestimated by Strauss & Howe when they wrote their book in 1997. The internet, cell phones and e-commerce were still in their infancy, while cyber security was an unknown concept. Huxley would be shocked by how backwards we have “progressed” through the efficient distribution of iGadgets, creating millions of distracted, non-thinking, passive, easily pliable, willfully ignorant sheep who adore their technological servitude.

A vast swath of the populace never reads a book and can’t go more than a few minutes without checking their iGadget to view the latest funny cat video, the latest update on Kim Kardashian’s ass, Bruce/Caitlyn Jenner’s courage, or Lamar Odom’s latest whorehouse escapade. Our country is drowning in a sea of irrelevance as our infinite craving for diversions and triviality overwhelms any thoughts of confronting our oppressors. The adoration of technology has degraded our ability to think and allowed the Deep State to control the masses by amusing them to death.

The totalitarian Orwellian utilization of technology was exposed by a millennial with courage, intelligence, and love of his country – Edward Snowden. His revelations were very distressful to the felonious government apparatchiks who blatantly flaunt their disregard for the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution. The criminals at the NSA, fully supported by Obama and Congress, have made Big Brother look like an amateur, as they siphon up every phone call, text, email, and facebook entry made by each person in this country and for good measure the political leaders of our allies and enemies.

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING – POLITICIANS DRIVING THE WORLD TOWARDS WAR”