NO, THE GOVERNMENT GDP REPORT IS NOT AN ONION ARTICLE

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Posted on 30th July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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You know when Onion articles are more believable than government reported data, your country has jumped the shark. Last quarter your government reported GDP GROWTH of 0.1%. They ultimately admitted it was really NEGATIVE 2.9%. Now the government goes back and “adjusts” 15 years worth of their worthless data and surprise surprise, it was ONLY NEGATIVE 2.1%.

Now these BEA drones have the balls to report a 4% 2nd quarter increase. This figure is beyond laughable. It is complete and utter bullshit. Three months from now they will revise it to 1.5%. They needed a big number today because the world situation is going to shit and Obama’s approval rating hits new lows every day.

Zero Hedge points out that the BEA admitted to making wild ass guesses about the two biggest components of the surge because they had incomplete June data. The downward revisions will follow after they get their all-time stock market high based on bullshit data.

They had the gall to say that consumer spending spiked when major retailers have been reporting shitty 2nd quarter sales. Who do you think is lying?

They say that residential construction surged in the 2nd quarter. We know for a fact that new home construction plummeted in the 2nd quarter. All of the housing market is lower than last year. How can durable goods purchases be surging (appliances, furniture, electronics) when the retail sales figures for those retailers are negative versus last year?

This entire report is bogus. I know it, you know it, and the government drones know it. But CNBC and the rest of the captured corporate media will shout the awesome news from the mountaintops and the Wall Street shysters will pump the rigged market with their HFT supercomputers.

All is well in our Brave New World of finance and propaganda.

 

Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike; Historical Data Revised

Tyler Durden's picture

Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.

What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP will be lower, not higher, as the actual data comes in, and especially as the CapEx data, which contrary to the GDP report, has not rebounded. Speaking of revisions, today the BEA also released its annual revision of all data from 1999 to Q1 2014, which made last quarter’s -2.9% print a more palatable -2.1%, in the process throwing everyone’s trendline calculations off as yet another GDP redefinition was implemented.

The chart of the original and revised data is shown below.

We are currently combing through the years of revisions and will provide a snapshot shortly but for the time being here is Bloomberg’s take:

  • 2Q personal consumption up 2.5% vs est. up 1.9% (range 1.5%-2.9%); prior revised to 1.2% from 1%
  • Core PCE q/q 2% vs est. 1.9% (range 1.4%-2.3%)
  • Gross private investment up 17% in 2Q after falling 6.9% in 1Q
  • Residential up 7.5% after falling 5.3%
  • Purchases of durable goods jumped 14%, most since 3Q 2009
  • Corporate spending up 5.9% vs little changed q/q
  • Inventory accumulation added 1.7ppts to GDP

OUR TOTALITARIAN FUTURE – PART ONE

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Posted on 28th July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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“On the first Christmas Day the population of our planet was about two hundred and fifty millions — less than half the population of modern China. Sixteen cen­turies later, when the Pilgrim Fathers landed at Plym­outh Rock, human numbers had climbed to a little more than five hundred millions. By the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, world pop­ulation had passed the seven hundred million mark. In 1931, when I was writing Brave New World, it stood at just under two billions. Today, only twenty-seven years later, there are two billion eight hundred million of us. And tomorrow — what?” Aldous Huxley – Brave New World Revisited – 1958

As the world explodes in violence, war, riots, and uprisings, it is challenging to step back and examine the bigger picture. With airliners being shot down over the Ukraine, missiles flying between Israel and Gaza, ongoing civil war in Syria, Iraq falling apart as ISIS gains ground, dictatorship crackdown in Egypt, Turkey on the verge of revolution, Iran gaining control of Iraq, Saudi Arabia fomenting violence, Africa dissolving into chaos, South America imploding and sending their children across our purposely porous southern border, Mexico under the control of drug lords, China experiencing a slow motion real estate collapse, Japan experiencing their third decade of Keynesian failure, facing a demographic nightmare scenario while being slowly poisoned by radiation, and Chinese-Japanese relations moving towards World War II levels, it is easy to get lost in the day to day minutia of history in the making.

Why is this happening at this point in history? Why is the average American economically worse off today than they were at the height of the economic crisis in 2009? Why is the Cold War returning with a vengeance? Why is the Federal Reserve still employing emergency monetary policies when we are supposedly five years into a recovery and the stock market has attained record highs? Why do the ECB and European politicians continue to paper over the insolvency of their banks and governments? Why did the U.S. support the ouster of a dictator we supported for decades in Egypt and then support the elevation of a new dictator after we didn’t like the policies of the democratically elected president? Why did the U.S. eliminate the leader of Libya and allow the country to descend into anarchy and civil war? Why did the U.S. fund and provoke a revolutionary overthrow of a democratically elected leader in the Ukraine? Why did the U.S. fund and arm Al Qaeda associated rebels in Syria who are now fighting our supposed allies in Iraq? Why has the U.S. been occupying Afghanistan for the last thirteen years with the result being a Taliban that is stronger than ever? Why are the BRIC countries forming a monetary union to challenge USD domination? Why is the U.S. attempting to provoke Russia into a conflict with NATO?

Why is the U.S. government collecting every electronic communication made by every American? Why is the U.S. government spying on world leader allies? Why is the U.S. government providing military equipment to local police forces? Why is the U.S. military conducting training exercises within U.S. cities? Why is the U.S. government attempting to restrict Second Amendment rights? Why is the U.S. government attempting to control and lockdown the internet? Why has the U.S. government chosen to treat the Fourth Amendment as if it is obsolete? Why is the national debt still rising by $750 billion per year ($2 billion per day) if the economy is back to normal? Why have 12 million working age Americans left the workforce since the economic recovery began? How could the unemployment rate be back at 2008 levels when there are 14 million more working age Americans and the same number employed as in 2008? Why are there 13 million more people on food stamps today than there were at the start of the economic recovery in 2009? Why have home prices risen by 25% since 2012 when mortgage applications have been at fourteen year lows? Why are Wall Street profits and bonuses at record highs while the real median household income stagnates at 1998 levels?

Why do 98% of incumbent politicians get re-elected when congressional approval levels are lower than whale shit? Why are oil prices four times higher than they were in 2003 if the U.S. is supposedly on the verge of energy independence? Why do the corporate controlled mainstream media choose to entertain and regurgitate government propaganda rather than inform, investigate and seek the truth? Why do corporations and shadowy billionaires control the politicians, media, judges, and financial system in their ravenous quest for more riches? Why has the public allowed a privately owned bank to control our currency and inflate away 96% of its value in 100 years? Why have American parents allowed their children to be programmed and dumbed down by government run public schools? Why have Americans allowed themselves to be lured into debt in an effort to appear wealthy and successful? Why have Americans permitted their brains to atrophy through massive doses of social media, reality TV, iGadget addiction, and a cultural environment of techno-narcissism? Why have Americans lost their desire to read, think critically, question authority, act responsibly, defer gratification, and care about future generations? Why have Americans sacrificed their freedoms, liberties and rights for the false expectation of safety and security? Why will we pay dearly for our delusional, materialistic, debt financed idiocy? – Because we never learn the lessons of history.

There are so many questions and no truthful answers forthcoming from those who pass for leaders in this increasingly totalitarian world. Our willful ignorance, apathy, hubris and arrogance will have consequences. Just because it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. The cyclicality of history guarantees a further deepening of this Crisis. The world has evolved from totalitarian hegemony to republican liberty and regressed back to totalitarianism throughout the centuries. Anyone honestly assessing the current state of the world and our country would unequivocally conclude we have regressed back towards a totalitarian regime where a small cabal of powerful oligarchs believes they can control and manipulate the masses in their gluttonous desire for treasure. Aldous Huxley foretold all the indicators of a world descending into totalitarianism due to overpopulation, propaganda, brainwashing, consumerism, and dumbing down of a distracted populace in his 1958 reassessment of his 1931 novel Brave New World.

Is There a Limit?

“At the rate of increase prevailing between the birth of Christ and the death of Queen Elizabeth I, it took sixteen centuries for the population of the earth to double. At the present rate it will double in less than half a century. And this fantastically rapid doubling of our numbers will be taking place on a planet whose most desirable and pro­ductive areas are already densely populated, whose soils are being eroded by the frantic efforts of bad farmers to raise more food, and whose easily available mineral capital is being squandered with the reckless extravagance of a drunken sailor getting rid of his accumulated pay.” Aldous Huxley – Brave New World Revisited – 1958

Demographics are easy to extrapolate and arrive at an accurate prediction, as long as the existing conditions and trends remain relatively constant. Huxley was accurate in his doubling prediction. The world population was 2.9 billion in 1958. It only took 39 years to double again to 5.8 billion in 1997. It has grown by 24% in the last 17 years to the current level of 7.2 billion. According to United Nations projections, world population is projected to reach 9.6 billion in 2050. The fact that it would take approximately 70 years for the world’s population to double from the 1997 level reveals a slowing growth rate, as the death rate in many developed countries surpasses their birth rate. The population of the U.S. grew from 175 million in 1958 to 320 million today, an 83% increase in 56 years.

The rapid population growth over the last century from approximately 1.8 billion in 1914, despite two horrific world wars, is attributable to cheap, easy to access oil and advances in medical technology made possible by access to cheap oil. The projection of 9.6 billion in 2050 is based upon an assumption the world’s energy, food and water resources can sustain that many people, no world wars kill a few hundred million people, no incurable diseases spread across the globe and there is no catastrophic geologic, climate, or planetary events. I’ll take the under on the 9.6 billion.

Anyone viewing the increasingly violent world situation without bias can already see the strain that overpopulation has created. Today, six countries contain half the world’s population.

A cursory examination of population trends around the world provides a frightening glimpse into a totalitarian future marked by vicious resource wars, violent upheaval and starvation for millions. India, a country one third the size of the United States, has four times the population of the United States. A vast swath of the population lives in poverty and squalor. India contains the largest concentration (25%) of people living below the World Bank’s international poverty line of $1.25 per day. According to the U.N. India is expected to add 400 million people to its cities by 2050. Its capital city Delhi already ranks as the second largest in the world, with 25 million inhabitants. The city has more than doubled in size since 1990. The assumptions in these U.N. projections are flawed. Without rapidly expanding economic growth, capital formation and energy resources, the ability to employ, house, feed, clothe, transport, and sustain 400 million more people will be impossible. Disease, starvation, civil unrest, war and a totalitarian government would be the result. With its mortal enemy Pakistan, already the sixth most populated country in the world, jamming 182 million people into an area one quarter the size of India and one twelfth the size of the U.S. and growing faster than India, war over resources and space will be inevitable. And both countries have nuclear arms.

More than half the globe’s inhabitants now live in urban areas, with China, India and Nigeria forecast to see the most urban growth over the next 30 years. Twenty-four years ago, there were 10 megacities with populations pushing above the 10 million mark. Today, there are 28 megacities with areas of developing nations seeing faster growth: 16 in Asia, 4 in Latin America, 3 in Africa, 3 in Europe and 2 in North America. The world is expected to have 41 sprawling megacities over the next few decades with developing nations representing the majority of that growth. Today, Tokyo, with 38 million people, is the largest in the world, followed by New Delhi, Jakarta, Seoul, Shanghai, Beijing, Manila, and Karachi – all exceeding 20 million people.

To highlight the rapid population growth of the developing world, the New York metropolitan area containing 18 million people was ranked as the third largest urban area in the world in 1990. Today it is ranked ninth and is expected to be ranked fourteenth by 2030. The U.S. had the fewest births since 1998 last year at 3.95 million. We also had the highest recorded deaths in history at 2.54 million.  The fertility rate for 20- to 24-year-olds is now 83.1 births per 1,000 women, a record low. That combination created a gap in births over deaths that is the lowest it has been in 35 years.

This is the plight of the developed world (U.S., Europe, Japan) and even China (due to one child policy). According to the U.N. report, the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion from now until 2050. In contrast, the 49 least developed countries are projected to double in size from around 900 million people in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050. The rapid growth of desperately poor third world countries like Nigeria, Afghanistan, Niger, Congo, Ethiopia, and Uganda will create tremendous strain on their economic, political, social, and infrastructural systems. Nigeria’s population is projected to surpass the U.S. by 2050. Japan, Europe and Russia are in demographic death spirals. China is neutral, and the U.S. is expected to grow by another 89 million people. I wonder how many of them the BLS will classify as not in the labor force.

What are the implications to mankind of the world adding another billion people in the next twelve years, primarily in the poorest countries of Asia, Africa and South America? What does the world think of the U.S., which constitutes 4.4% of the world’s population, but consumes 20% of the world’s oil production and 24% of the world’s food? Will there be consequences to having the 85 richest people on earth accumulating as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion, with 1.2 billion surviving on less than $1.25 per day? Can a planet with finite amount of easily accessible financially viable extractable resources support an ever increasing number of people? Is there a limit to growth? I believe these questions will be answered in the next fifteen years as the dire consequences play out in civil strife, resource wars, totalitarian regimes, and societal collapse. Fourth Turning Crisis cycles always sweep away the existing social order and replace it with something new. It could be better or far worse.

Impact of Over-Population

“The problem of rapidly increasing numbers in relation to natural resources, to social stability and to the well-being of individuals — this is now the central problem of mankind; and it will remain the central problem certainly for another century, and perhaps for several centuries thereafter. Unsolved, that problem will render insoluble all our other problems. Worse still, it will create conditions in which individual free­dom and the social decencies of the democratic way of life will become impossible, almost unthinkable. Not all dictatorships arise in the same way. There are many roads to Brave New World; but perhaps the straightest and the broadest of them is the road we are travel­ing today, the road that leads through gigantic num­bers and accelerating increases.” Aldous Huxley – Brave New World Revisited – 1958

The turmoil roiling the world today is a function of Huxley’s supposition that over-population pushes societies towards centralization and ultimately totalitarianism. The relentless growth in the world’s population, not matched by growth in energy resources, water, food, and living space, results in increasing tension, anger, economic decline, government dependency, war and ultimately totalitarianism. Huxley believed politicians and governments would increasingly resort to propaganda and misinformation to mislead citizens as the problems worsened and freedoms were revoked. Could this recent statement by our commander and chief of propaganda have made Edward Bernays and Joseph Goebbels any prouder?

“The world is less violent than it has ever been. It is healthier than it has ever been. It is more tolerant than it has ever been. It is better fed then it’s ever been. It is more educated than it’s ever been.”

I’m sure the people living in Gaza, the Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Thailand, Turkey, Africa and American urban ghettos would concur with Obama’s less violent than ever mantra. Disease (Cholera, Malaria, Hepatitis, Aids, Tuberculosis, Ebola, Plague, SARS) and malnutrition beset third world countries, while the U.S. obesity epidemic caused by consumption of corporate processed food peddled to the masses through diabolical marketing methods enriches the mega-corporate food companies, as well as the corporate sick care complex. Religious wars and culture wars rage across the world as intolerance for others beliefs reaches all-time highs. After three decades of government controlled public education they have succeeded in dumbing down the masses through social engineering, propaganda, and promoting equality over excellence. Obama should stop trying to think and stick to what he does best – golf and fundraising. After reading his drivel, I’m reminded of a far more pertinent quote from Huxley:

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

The chart below details the fact that 12% of the world’s population in countries producing 9% of the world’s oil are currently in a state of war. The violence, war, and civil unrest roiling the Ukraine, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan are a direct result of U.S. meddling, instigation, and provocation. The U.S. government funds dictators (Hussein, Mubarak, Assad, Gaddafi) until they no longer serve their interests, engineer the overthrow of democratically elected leaders in countries (Iran, Egypt, Ukraine) that don’t toe the line, and dole out billions in military aid and arms to countries around the world in an effort to make them do our dirty work and enrich the military industrial complex. The true motivation behind most of the violence, intrigue and war is the U.S. need to maintain the U.S. petro-dollar hegemony and to control the flow of oil and natural gas throughout the world. The ruling oligarchy’s power, influence, and wealth are dependent upon dictating currency valuations and flow of oil and gas from foreign fiefdoms.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140725_war2.png

In Huxley’s 1931 Brave New World fable the world’s population is maintained at an optimum level (just under 2 billion) calculated by those in control. This is done through technology and biological manipulation. Procreation through sexual intercourse is prohibited. Creation of the desired number of people in each class is scientifically determined and the classes are conditioned from birth to fulfill their roles in society. When Huxley reassessed his novel in 1958’s Brave New World Revisited he didn’t argue for an optimum level of population. He simply hypothesized a close correlation between too many people, multiplying too rapidly, and the formulation of authoritarian philosophies and rise of totalitarian sys­tems of government.

The introduction of penicillin, DDT, and clean water into even the poorest countries on the planet had the effect of rapidly decreasing death rates around the globe. Meanwhile, birth rates continued to increase due to religious, social and cultural taboos surrounding birth control and the illiteracy and ignorance of those in the poorest regions of the world. The ultimate result has been an explosion in population growth in the developing world, least able to sustain that growth. Huxley just uses common sense in concluding that as an ever growing population presses more heavily upon accessible resources, the economic position of the society undergoing this ordeal becomes ever more precarious.

It essentially comes down to the laws of economics. Most of the developing world is economic basket cases. They cannot produce food, consumer goods, housing, schools, infrastructure, teachers, managers, scientists or educated workers at the same rate as their population growth. Therefore, it is impossible to improve the wretched conditions of the vast majority, as they wallow in squalor. Unless a country can produce more than it consumes, it cannot generate the surplus capital needed to invest in machinery, agricultural production, manufacturing facilities, and education. The rapidly growing population sinks further into poverty and despair. Huxley grasps the nefarious implications for freedom and liberty as over-population wreaks havoc around the globe:

“Whenever the economic life of a nation becomes pre­carious, the central government is forced to assume additional responsibilities for the general welfare. It must work out elaborate plans for dealing with a criti­cal situation; it must impose ever greater restrictions upon the activities of its subjects; and if, as is very likely, worsening economic conditions result in polit­ical unrest, or open rebellion, the central government must intervene to preserve public order and its own authority. More and more power is thus concentrated in the hands of the executives and their bureaucratic managers.”Aldous Huxley – Brave New World Revisited – 1958

Despots, dictators, and power hungry presidents arise in an atmosphere of fear, scarce resources, hopelessness, and misery. As the power of the central government grows the freedoms, liberties and rights of the people are diminished and ultimately relinquished.

In Part Two, I examine our relentless path towards totalitarianism and war.

Why Novorussians and Russians are right to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness

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Posted on 28th July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Some truth to counter the Western propaganda machine via The Vineyard of the Saker

For a couple of days now, I have posted various items showing the large number of casualties amongst the Ukie forces fighting against Novorussia, and I have observed with some amusement how many of you have expressed doubts about the veracity of these figures.  Today Nora drew my attention to a short video of a Ukie army recruiting officer being confronted by a crowd of civilians, mostly women, mostly mothers.  The video is a few days old, but this version is subtitled in English, so please watch it now:



Now, there are a couple of thing I would like to share with you after this video.

First, believe me, these women are aware of the terrifying rumours which speak of casualty figures way higher then those mentioned officially.   Keep in mind that a lot of Ukie soldiers simply disappear either torn into unrecoverable small pieces of meat and bones, or hastily buried into mass graves by their own officers to cover up their deaths, either quietly killed and secretly buried by the civilians of Novorussia (I have seen a video of Ukie recruits who say that they are terrified of the local civilians who smile at them and then kill them as soon as they get an opportunity).

Second, and this what a lot of you are missing, the Ukie and Novorussian militaries are dramatically different.  Let me explain:

Ukrainian military:

The Ukrainian military has been completely neglected by all the governments in power since 1991.  Do you remember the condition of the Russian military during the First Chechen war?  Now imagine taking that military, and instead of turning it around, you let it further degrade for another 20 years.  That would be more or less what the Ukie military is today.  Add to this that most officers and soldiers do not want to fight.  Besides fighting a war they personally don’t want (again, not all Ukrainians are Right Sector Nazi fanatics!), they are also literally hungry (they eat snakes now) and totally under equipped.  The command and control system of the Ukie military is more or less dead.  The ONLY advantage of the Ukies is the sheer number of aircraft, tanks and artillery, and that really is a purely quantitative advantage.

Novorussian military:

It is composed solely of volunteers.  Even the partial mobilization decreed recently in Donetsk is a moral obligation: you are told you have to show up, but if you do not, nobody will get you.  Second, there are a lot of very experienced soldiers and officers on the Novorussian side.  As as a direct result of that the following is true:

1 Ukie Grad MLRS is not equal to 1 Novorussian Grad MLRS


That is literally true.  Even if it is exactly the same Grad MLRS.  In fact, many, possibly most Grads used by the Novorussians are trophies taken away from the Ukies.  But whereas the Uky artillery almost exclusively shoots in more or less random way in the general direction of the other side, hitting only civilians, the Novorussians use each Grad with devastating effectiveness choosing the correct munition, landing it with surgical accuracy right on top of the Ukie positions.

Then look at the footage of Novorussian fighters: a lot of them are 30+ to 40+ years old group.  These are folks who have already spent a lot of time in the military, often with experience of war, and who know their job very very well.  Yes, it is true that the Novorussians still need many more of such experiences “wolves of war” as they are called in Russian, but they already have a lot of them.  So on one hand you have clueless but young guys, and on the other, older, but experienced pros who know how to survive.

Furthermore, you can look at any video shot on the Novorussian side, and it is clear that their morale is extremely high.  Most of you have probalby seen the footage made a few days ago of the Vostok Battalion on Saur Mogila where the local commander, Samurai, was preparing his men to go into battle to attack the Ukies in the southern cauldron and then the footage shows them jumping on their vehicles and going into battle.  Sure, the guys were tired and serious, but also extremely motivated and impatient to resume the fight.  The contrast with footage taken on the Ukie side could not have been stronger.

And then, let’s be honest about it, by now there are a lot of very experienced fighters from Russia in the Novorussian military.  Again, these are older men, often with brand new gear, who appear to be either NCOs or officers and who are clearly very highly motivated. 

Finally, the Ukies are lead by corrupt and incompetent generals, imagine Pavel Grachev, but even worse.  The reports that the fighting Ukies absolutely hate and despise their commanders (not the direct commander, but the top brass, the generals) are all over the social media.  On the other hand, you have folks like Strelov, Samurai, Motorola, Kedr, Khodakovskii and others of clearly are both very experienced and very talented.  And, again, this is my personal opinion, but there is no doubt in my mind that these local commanders not only have all sorts of, shall way say, “advisers” from the Russia, but that the Russian military supports the Novorussians with intelligence and expertise (who do you guess was the first to detect the envelopment manover attempted by the Ukies along the Russian border?).

So this is in no way the fault of the Ukrainian foot solider who is, by all accounts, courageous, extremely strong willed and who will execute his mission in the toughest conditions.  Just look at how long the poor Ukrainian soldiers in the Southern Cauldron have been resisting under absolutely nightmarish conditions!  But in these circumstances the Ukies don’t stand a chance, and even though they do have an advantage in the open field by the sheer number of artillery, tanks and aircraft, as soon as they get into closer combat the Novorussians make minced meat out of them.

The true figures are hidden by the junta

Remember this: if Novorussia has something like 6,5 million people, the entire Ukraine has somewhere 40 million people.  So what does the junta do?  They spread out the casualties.  The Ukies are now conducting their THIRD partial mobilization (penalty for refusing to serve: 5 years in jail).  They are taking young men as cannon fodder form all over the Ukraine, from Lvov to Vinnitsa to Chernigov and they send them to Novorussia to get butchered by an army and population which fights with the energy of despair and which fights on its own land.

This might shock you and I will get a lot of nasty comments for saying this, but I personally think that the Ukie casualty figures are grossly UNDER-estimated and that when this horrible civil war comes to and end and this issue is professionally investigated we will find that the real figures of killed Ukrainians will be way higher than even the highest figures quoted today.

I think that as it typically the case in a dictatorship, the fact that the 5 state owned TV stations say exactly the same nonsense does not prevent the other information from seeping in in all sorts of creative manners: the Internet, of course, but also relatives abroad, the Russian media, leaks from the government structures, etc.   And then you have the number of neighbours who are being told that they son “died like a hero for his country” (and, typically, that his body was not recovered) who then talk to you in the evenings, around a kitchen table, when nobody is around.  So for all the Ukie official propaganda the poor women on the video above are absolutely terrified that if they military is allowed to run a conscription locally their sons and husbands will also “died a hero’s death”.  Hence their desperate rage.

Us and them?

This is a truism, but I will say this again here: the vast majority of the soldiers fighting against Novorussians are Russian themselves, in the sense that they speak Russian, they are not Nazis at all and they are not the crazy Euromaidanites who started all this shit – they are simple country or small town folks who watched it all on the TV.  Sure, they probably hated Yanukovich, but no more than they hated Timoshenko or Yushchenko, and while they feel Ukrainian that does not mean that they have this satanic russophobia so typical of the real Ukie Nazis.  Not even most of the National Guard are hardened “Ukie Interahamwe”.  That scum is mostly found in the deathsquads of Kolomoiskii and Liashko.  In those units you truly have the scum of the earth, pathologically evil sickos who will crucify babies and strangle pregnant women with a telephone cord.  This is not a typical Ukrainian thing, by the way, you will find a minority of such sociopaths in any country and society.  The difference is that in a civilized and normal society you typically find these types in jail, whereas in the current Ukraine turned Banderastan they are in positions of power.  But I am absolutely sure that you could find the proportion of maniacal thugs amongst Russians, Belgians, Peruvians or even Eskimos.  That is just a sad part of the human nature.  The scary thing is that in Banderastan they get to rule the rest of society.

I take immense solace in the fact that Russians clearly understand that, even the Novorussians do.  I just watched a video about 40+ Ukrainian border guards who were terribly shot up by the Novorussians and who offered to surrender in exchnage for a safe passage to Russia.  Not only did the Novorussians accept that, but they also fed them, treated their wounds (often terrible ones), then brought them across the border where the Russian military treated them again and then let them chose between staying in Russia or returning home (and risk being investigated by the Nazis for “desertion”).  Those who wanted to return did so on Russian military aircraft. 

A few commentators said that this was stupid on the Russian part.  I categorically disagree.  If these guys had been Kolomoiskii’s thugs, then yes, it would have been stupid.  But these were basically decent guys, used as canon fodder, in other words, victims.  And I am proud that the Russians also understood that and acted with kindness and compassion towards them.

To those of you who believe that the Ukie Nazis might get such a sweet deal, I can reassure you – forget it.  Russia is Russia and war is war.  In Chechnia for example, when caught the Wahabis were given a 10-15 min one on one “interview” with a a few Paratrooper or Spetsaz NCOs which rapidly established their values as prisoners in an extremely unpleasant dialog for the Wahabi and then, unless the Russians thought they had a high value prisoner, they would be summarily executed and buried.  I have no doubt whatsoever of what the Novorussians do when the catch a member of a Ukie death squad and I can assure you that they will not treat his wounds or allow him to survive longer than 30min max. But, again and again, the vast majority of the Ukies butchered today are not members of death squads and even though they are clearly fighting on the wrong side, they have very little choice and they are therefore also first and foremost victims who deserve our compassion.

The Ukrainian tragedy

The Russian word безобразие (bezobrazie) is often translated into English as ugliness, of deformity or even scandal or chaos. But that is not a very good rendering of its meaning.  Bezobrazie is composed of the prefix “bez” which means “without” and then the word “obraz” which means “image” or “type” or even “character”.  What bez-obraz-ie means the “absence of a coherent image” or, literally, the “loss of your own identity”.  This is what happened to the Ukrainian people, they lost their own real identity and they let it be replaced by a ugly, xenophobic, murderous and hate-filled “mask” of sorts, which is not at all what the real Ukrainian culture used to be.  This is immensely sad, and I want to hope that this horror can be healed.  But in the meantime, Russians need to make sure that they do now allow themselves to be changed by this war, they need to make sure that the Russian people retain their own spiritual and cultural “obraz” in the sense of “identity”.  This is also one crucially important reason why they should continue to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness: Russian compassion can be a powerful weapon against Ukie hatred and maybe even an impulse for the Ukrainian people to recover their true identity.

The Saker

BERNAYS, FACEBOOK, GOVERNMENT PROPAGANDA & YOU

1 comment

Posted on 26th July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Fact-Free Zone

8 comments

Posted on 22nd July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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 Guest Post by Dmitry Orlov

The fog of war that has been hovering over eastern Ukraine has now spread to the shores of the Potomac, and from there has inundated ever pore of western body politic. The party line is that pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine have shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17, using a surface-to-air missile provided by Russia, with Russia’s support and complicity. The response is to push for tougher sanctions against Russian companies and Mr. Putin’s entourage. None of this is based on fact. To start with, it isn’t known that MH-17 was brought down by a surface-to-air missile; it could have been an air-to-air missile, a bomb on board, a mechanical failure, or the same (or different) mysterious force that brought down MH-370 earlier this year. Mysteries abound, and yet western media knows it’s Mr. Putin’s fault.


Step through the looking glass over to Russia, and you hear a completely different story: the plane was shot down by the Ukrainians in order to frame the rebels and Russia in an attempt to pull NATO into the conflict. Here, we have numerous supporting “facts,” at varying levels of truthiness. But I have no way to independently verify any of them, and so instead I will organize what has been known into a pattern, and let you decide for yourself which story (if any) you should believe.

When trying to catch a criminal, a standard method is to look at means, motive and opportunity. Was the criminal physically capable of committing the act? Did the criminal have a good reason for committing it? Did the criminal get a chance to do it? One more criterion is often quite helpful: does the crime fit the perpetrator’s known modus operandi? Let’s give this method a try.

Means

Did the rebels have the means to shoot down the plane? They have no military aviation and no functioning airport (the one near Donetsk is out of commission and occupied by Ukrainian troops). They have shoulder-fired missiles, which can take out helicopters and planes flying at low altitude, but are useless against airliners flying at cruising altitude. They also have a “Buk” air defense unit (one truck’s worth of it) which they took from the Ukrainians as a trophy, but it’s said to be non-operational. A rocket from this unit could have shot down MH-17, but only if it were integrated with a radar system, which the rebels did not have.

Did the Ukrainians have the means? They had five “Buk” units active in the area on that day, integrated with a radar system which was also active that day. (Deploying an air defense system against an enemy that does not have any aviation seems a bit strange.) According to a report from a Spanish air traffic controller who was working in Kiev (and has since been dismissed, along with other foreign ATCs) MH-17 was followed by two SU-25 jet fighters. According to a Russian expert on “Buk” systems, the damage to the fuselage visible on photographs of the crash site could not have been from a “Buk” surface-to-air missile, but could have been caused by an air-to-air missile fired by a SU-25.

Did the Russians have the means? Of course they did. Never underestimate the Russians.

Motive

The rebels had absolutely no reason to want to shoot down that plane. This leaves open the possibility that they shot it down by mistake, but that’s not a motive, and if that is what happened, then this is not a crime but an accident, because a crime is an intentional act.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians had a really good motive for shooting it down. This part takes a little more explaining.

You see, the Ukrainians have been doing everything they can to pull Russia into the conflict, in order to then pull NATO into it as well, because their chance of victory while acting alone is nil. To this end, they have been shelling civilian targets relentlessly, causing many dead and wounded, in the hopes that Russian troops would pour across the border to defend them. This failed to happen; instead, the Ukrainians have succeeded in precipitating a refugee crisis that has produced something like half a million refugees seeking asylum in Russia. This has had an effect opposite of the intended. Whereas previously the rebels’ recruitment activities were somewhat hampered by a wait-and-see attitude on the part of the population, now they have seen all they need to see and are ready to fight. Also, the Russian population inside Russia itself has found the stories of the refugees sufficiently compelling to open their wallets, so that now the rebels are drawing healthy salaries and have good kit and a steady stream of supplies. They are highly motivated to fight and to win, with a steady rah-rah of support coming from across the border in Russia, while the Ukrainian forces they face consist of underfed, untrained, badly armed recruits being goaded into battle by Right Sector thugs. Their recent battle plan was to directly attack the population centers in Donetsk and Lugansk while cutting the rebels off from the Russian border. One column managed to break through to the defunct Donetsk airport, where it has been kettled every since (it is currently trying to break out in the direction of Donetsk). The troops massed along the Russian border got kettled there and decimated, with quite a few Ukrainian soldiers walking across the border sans weapons seeking food, shelter and medical treatment.

So much for Ukrainian military strategy. But the other thing to note is that time is not on the Ukrainians’ side. First, a bit of background. Ukraine has always been a rather lopsided country. There are the Russian provinces in the east, which had coal, industry, good farmland, and lots of trade with Russia proper. They used to be Russia proper until Lenin lumped them into Ukraine, in an effort to improve it. And then there is western Ukraine, which, with the possible exception of Kiev, could never earn its keep. In terms of economic and social development, it resembles an African nation. Since its independence, Ukraine had subsisted through trade with Russia and through transfer payments from (Russian-speaking) Ukrainian citizens working in Russia. Because of fighting in the east, trade with Russia has been disrupted. Ukraine has been cut off from Russian natural gas supplies due to nonpayment; as a result, more and more Ukrainian cities no longer supply hot water, and come winter, there will be no heat. The economy is in freefall. The Ukrainian government received some funds from the IMF, but these are being squandered on the failing military campaign. The association agreement which Ukraine signed with the EU remains a dead letter because Ukraine does not make anything that the EU wants, and Ukraine has no money with which to buy anything the EU makes. So much for Ukrainian economic strategy.

And so, from the Ukrainian government’s perspective, shooting down an airliner and blaming it on Putin (which is something that western governments and media are only too happy to do) probably seemed like a good ploy.

What about Russia? Well, the Russian government’s chief concern is with avoiding becoming drawn into the conflict. The basic Russian strategy is, as I put it a couple of months ago, to let Ukraine stew in its own juices until the meat falls off the bone, and this strategy is working just fine.

It is important to draw a difference between the Russian state (Putin, the Kremlin, etc.) and the Russian people. According to Russian law, any Russian-speaking person born on the territory of the USSR has an automatic right to a Russian citizenship, so the people of eastern Ukraine are by default Russian citizens. It is a fine line between providing support to your fellow-Russians across the border as a people and being drawn into an international conflict as a nation, and the Russian government has been rather careful to preserve this distinction. Thus, the Russian government was very highly motivated to prevent this incident.

Opportunity

For the rebels, the opportunity amounted to looking up and seeing a plane. If, at that moment, they made the split-second decision to shoot it down using one of the “Buk” rockets (provided they had one ready to go) without radar support they could have only fired that rocket in “pursuit mode,” where the rocket flies to where the plane is, not to where the plane will be, and it is rather uncertain whether the rocket would have caught up with the jet before running out of fuel.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians gave themselves the opportunity by having Dnepropetrovsk ATC redirect the flight over the conflict zone, where they deployed their “Buk” systems.

I have trouble imagining a scenario in which Russian air defense forces would have been presented with an opportunity to shoot down MH-17.

MO

Although some criminals commit just one crime (and sometimes even get away with it), typically a life of crime follows a pattern. What is the pattern behind shooting down MH-17? It is to kill civilians for political gain. What has the Ukrainian government been doing, for quite some time now, in shelling apartment buildings, schools and hospitals in the east of the country? Killing civilians, of course. And why have they been doing it? For a political reason: to attempt to draw the Russian military into the conflict, in order to then appeal to NATO for help. This is part of a larger plan on the part of the US to use Ukraine as a wedge between Russia and the EU, to deprive the EU of Russian natural gas supplies and make it even more dependent on the US.

Conclusions

My effort here is to present you with a better framework for analyzing these events than you might find elsewhere, but I hope that you uncover your own “facts” (to the extent that facts can be said to exist on the internet) and draw your own conclusions.

But I would like to point out a few things.

First, I often encounter a certain attitude among Americans. They may absolutely hate the evil clowns in Washington who are ruining their lives, but when looking at the world, they suddenly decide that every other government is equally bad, that theirs is not so bad after all, and since the Ukrainians are suddenly our friends (or so says John Kerry) then they are not so bad either. Don’t make such assumptions. Look for evidence. To me it indicates that your government is run by evil clowns; other governments—not so much.

Second, citizens of the European Union shouldn’t think that it is only the dark-skinned people in faraway places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and so on that get killed in the various wars instigated by the US. Continue outsourcing your foreign policy to the evil clowns of Washington (and the spineless jellies in Brussels) and you too will get killed.

Lastly, we already know who the criminals are in this case: they are the western politicians and journalists. Airliners fall out of the sky with some regularity. This is tragic, but not unexpected, and is not necessarily the result of a crime. The real crime is in exploiting this tragedy in order to smear and insult an entire people. Don’t worry, the people in question are too wise to respond to such ridiculous provocations. But the reputations of western journalists who have been covering this tragic event have already gone up in smoke. All of western media is now about as good as Pravda was back in the Soviet days—good for wiping your ass with, that is. It’s a sad day for anyone who cares about the truth but can only understand English.

Whistleblower: U.S. Satellite Images Show Ukrainian Troops Shooting Down MH17

33 comments

Posted on 21st July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Via InfoWars

Source tells award winning reporter Washington lying about responsibility for tragedy

by Paul Joseph Watson | July 21, 2014


Award winning former Associated Press reporter Robert Parry has been told by an intelligence source that the United States is in possession of satellite imagery which shows that Ukrainian troops were responsible for the shoot down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17.

In the absence of any proper investigation, media rhetoric over the last few days has firmly pointed the finger of blame for the downing of the aircraft on Russian-backed Ukrainian rebels, but Parry’s source tells a different story.

What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.

The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.

Although the establishment press has attempted to deride any questioning of the official narrative that Ukrainian rebels were responsible for the incident by invoking the tired “conspiracy theory” pejorative, Parry can hardly be dismissed as a crank given his key role in covering the Iran-Contra scandal for the Associated Press and Newsweek. Indeed, Parry’s investigative work on intelligence matters, for which he was awarded the George Polk Award, suggests that the information provided by his source is worthy of serious attention.

U.S. and Ukrainian authorities continue to insist that Moscow-backed separatists were responsible for the tragedy, asserting that a BUK missile system was used to bring down the airliner. However, this was contradicted by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema, who stated, “The military told the president after the passenger plane had been shot down that the terrorists did not possess our Buk missile systems.”

In a related development, audio experts who conducted a study into the authenticity of a recording released by Ukrainian authorities which implicated Russian-backed rebels as being responsible for the missile attack on MH17 concluded that the tape was fabricated.

“The tape’s second fragment consists of three pieces but was presented as a single audio recording. However, a spectral and time analysis has showed that the dialog was cut into pieces and then assembled. Short pauses in the tape are very indicative: the audio file has preserved time marks which show that the dialog was assembled from various episodes, the expert said,” reports ITAR-TASS.

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ARE U.S. MEGA-CORPS REALLY OVERBURDENED BY TAXES?

6 comments

Posted on 16th July 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Whenever I see a story in the MSM about the poor goliath corporations who are struggling because they pay too much in taxes, my bullshit meter starts flashing red. The mega-corporations currently have the highest profits as a percentage of GDP in U.S. history. The mega-corporations control the politicians in Washington DC and state houses around the country. They write the tax laws and create the loopholes that keep them from incurring taxes.

The storyline is disingenuous, as they peddle charts like the one below showing statutory rates. These are the top rates that could be paid. Are these the actual rates paid by mega-corporations? Not a fucking chance. These parasitical mega-corps have armies of tax lawyers, tax accountants, and lobbyists making sure they don’t pay anything near 39.1%. These charts are produced by organizations funded by mega-corporations to make it seem like these corporations need lower tax rates.

 The reality is that mega-corporations are paying the lowest effective tax rate in U.S. history. Those congressional bribes are really paying dividends for the corporate CEOs and their lackeys. All time high profits, bonuses, and stock buybacks. But that isn’t good enough. They want more. They are never satisfied. Meanwhile, the little guy sees their income taxes, sales taxes, real estate taxes, tolls and thousands of government fees rise relentlessly. We don’t have lobbyists and lawyers fighting for us. Small businesses are effectively put out of business by mega-corps who write the laws, regulations and tax code. Don’t believe the baloney peddled by the corporate media about overburdened mega-corps.

FACEBOOK IS MANIPULATING & CONDITIONING YOU

14 comments

Posted on 30th June 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Welcome to the Brave New World where you are conditioned, manipulated, and entertained by unseen men seeking control, power and wealth. You’ve been conditioned to love your servitude. Bernays and Huxley had you pegged 80 years ago. Facebook will tell you how you should feel today.

 

I bet you thought Facebook tweaked your feed to provide you with “relevant” information you might find useful.

What if you found out that instead they “tweaked” it in an attempt to determine whether they could manipulate your emotional state?

Scientists at Facebook have published a paper showing that they manipulated the content seen by more than 600,000 users in an attempt to determine whether this would affect their emotional state. The paper, “Experimental evidence of massive-scale emotional contagion through social networks,” was published inThe Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences. It shows how Facebook data scientists tweaked the algorithm that determines which posts appear on users’ news feeds—specifically, researchers skewed the number of positive or negative terms seen by randomly selected users. Facebook then analyzed the future postings of those users over the course of a week to see if people responded with increased positivity or negativity of their own, thus answering the question of whether emotional states can be transmitted across a social network. Result: They can!

There seems to be this idea that you can get “something for nothing”, or the “something” you “pay” is in some way beneficial.  But what if it’s not?  What if it’s intended to manipulate how you think and respond to events around you?  What if that manipulation doesn’t end with an advertising message trying to get you to buy one product over another?

A rather liberal reading of Facebook’s terms would probably lead you to conclude that you agreed to this when you signed up for an account.  But this much is certain — you weren’t told about it in advance, and you didn’t explicitly consent.

This particular instance came to light because it led to a published research paper.  How much of this is going on in other venues entirely in secret, covered by the same sort of “policy agreement”, without your consent?

My best guess: A whole lot of it.