Via Judicial Watch
(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch announced today that it filed a lawsuit on December 2, 2015, in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia seeking records of communications from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officials regarding methodology for collecting and interpreting data used in climate models (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Commerce (No 1:15-cv-02088)). The lawsuit sought the same documents unsuccessfully subpoenaed by a House committee. Less than week after Judicial Watch served its lawsuit on NOAA, the agency finally turned over the targeted documents to Congress.
Judicial Watch sued the Department of Commerce after the agency failed to respond to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request submitted on October 30, 2015 – NOAA is a component of the Department of Commerce. The timeframe for the requested records is October 30, 2014, through October 30, 2015, and requests all documents and records of communications between NOAA officials, employees, and contractors regarding:
- The methodology and utilization of night marine air temperatures to adjust ship and buoy temperature data;
- The use of other global temperature datasets for both NOAA’s in-house dataset improvements and monthly press releases conveying information to the public about global temperatures;
- The utilization and consideration of satellite bulk atmospheric temperature readings for use in global temperature datasets; and
- A subpoena issued for the aforementioned information by Congressman Lamar Smith on October 13, 2015.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2015 10:44 -0500
Exactly one year ago, on December 23, 2014, we wrote that the housing recovery remains cancelled due to 6 months of downward revisions. As we revealed, “for the period May – November, the initial new home sales prints amount to 2.779MM houses. Post revision, the number plunges by 22% to 2.168K.”
It was about as glaringly obvious as it could get:
Fast forward to today when moments ago the Dept of Commerce “pleasantly surprised” everyone when it reported that November new home sales, while missing expectations of a 505K print, “rose” to 490K from 470K in October . Great news: the housing recovery is on track… Just one problem: the original October print was 495K, which if maintained would have meant a decline of 5K in November.So we decided to look at previous reports to see if the Commerce Dept had tried to pull a fast one again as it did last year, and lo and behold, not only were there downward revisions between the November and October “government data”, but as the chart below shows, over the past 5 months the data has been consistently “revised lower” with every incremental release.
About that American oil independence narrative. Dead shale walking. The debt saturated shale oil companies are filing bankruptcy on a weekly basis and the trend will only accelerate from here as their hedges expire and oil prices continue to fall. You can stick a fork into the shale oil/gas miracle. I can’t remember who predicted this over a year ago.
Guest Post by Art Berman
Less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices.
Sorry about that. I know that many believe that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices but data on the Permian basin and Bakken plays simply does not support that belief.
To make matters worse, Pioneer and EOG have made outrageous claims about Permian basin reserves in their 3rd quarter 2015 earnings reports that no sensible person should believe. Statements like these simply add to the mistaken idea that tight oil plays get a pass on the laws of physics and economics and that somehow the USA is going to beat Saudi Arabia as the low-cost “swing producer” of the world. I wish that were true but trust me–based on data, that’s not going to happen.
The Permian basin is one of the oldest producing areas in the United States. It has been thoroughly drilled and is in a hyper-mature phase of development. The Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Springs plays that Pioneer and EOG are pursuing (Figure 1) are really secondary recovery projects in which horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have replaced water and CO2 injection methods used in the past. Few new reserves should be expected. Most of the claims that these companies make are really about higher recovery efficiency of existing reserves.
None of these plays are remotely commercial at present oil prices. In the most-likely per-well reserve case, these plays require break-even oil prices in the range of at least $50-$75 per barrel, and current wellhead prices in the basin are less than $30 per barrel.
Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October, a number substantially in excess of the expected 175,000 to 190,000 jobs. The unexpected job gain has dropped the unemployment rate to 5 percent. These two numbers will be the focus of the financial media presstitutes.
What is wrong with these numbers? Just about everything. First of all, 145,000 of the jobs, or 54%, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. The birth-death model provides an estimate of the net amount of unreported jobs lost to business closings and the unreported jobs created by new business openings. The model is based on a normally functioning economy unlike the one of the past seven years and thus overestimates the number of jobs from new business and underestimates the losses from closures. If we eliminate the birth-death model’s contribution, new jobs were 126,000.
Next, consider who got the 271,000 reported jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all of the new jobs plus some—378,000—went to those 55 years of age and older. However, males in the prime working age, 25 to 54 years of age, lost 119,000 jobs. What seems to have happened is that full time jobs were replaced with part time jobs for retirees. Multiple job holders increased by 109,000 in October, an indication that people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs in order to make ends meet.