Retail sales always fall two months in a row when jobs are growing strongly – according to Obama and his minions. Right? Last month’s positive report was “adjusted” to a decline. Do you need any more proof that government reported numbers are complete and utter bullshit? The purpose of seasonally adjusting bad retail sales numbers to a strong gain last month, was to stop the stock market from falling, which it was doing at the time. Mission accomplished. You just bury the lies in the next press release.
If you strip out the subprime debt goosed auto sales (rentals), you have retail sales up an entire 2.1% over last February. As the MSM mouthpieces fail to mention, last February was bitterly cold with huge snowstorms across the nation. This year was mild, with virtually no bad storms. This makes the year over year change even more pitiful. With real inflation above 2.1%, real retail sales are actually falling year over year. That always happens during an economic recovery. Right?
We are in the midst of a recession for the average person. Any gas savings have been siphoned off by the Obamacare abortion. The government also reports virtually no medical expense related inflation. That’s a hoot. The lies will keep coming because the government thinks the ignorant masses won’t figure it out. It seems the increasing throngs of Trump voters have figured it out. This sucker is going down.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/15/2016 08:42 -0400
Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from “resilient” historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months – the biggest sequential drop in a year.
While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture.
Retail Sales down most in a year:
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli
It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.
The Establishment data that gets all the headlines blared that 242,000 net new jobs were created in February. Of course, 129,000 fake birth/death jobs were factored into that number. Anyone with a functioning brain (excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC shills, and any government apparatchik) knows that more businesses have been closing than opening for the last four years as Obamacare and government solutions destroy the economy. Rather than adding 129,000 jobs, small businesses likely subtracted 50,000 jobs in February. That would put the true number at about 60,000.
In a shocking coincidence, Trim Tabs, a privately run independent company that monitors actual real time payroll withholding tax info issued a report two days ago which said the number of new jobs created in February was between 55,000 and 85,000, based on actual withholding tax data. If you are employed, payroll taxes are automatically extracted. This data cannot be manipulated by the government propagandists. It reveals the truth. No seasonal adjustments, tweaks or phantom jobs added. It’s pure tax data.
“What are the odds that people will make smart decisions about money if they don’t need to make smart decisions–if they can get rich making dumb decisions? The incentives on Wall Street were all wrong; they’re still all wrong.” ― Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
Corporate earnings reports for the fourth quarter are pretty much in the books. The deception, falsification, accounting manipulation, and propaganda utilized by mega-corporations and their compliant corporate media mouthpieces has been outrageously blatant. It reeks of desperation as the Wall Street shysters attempt to extract the last dollar from their muppet clients before this house of cards collapses.
The CEOs of these mega-corporations accelerated their debt financed stock buybacks in 2015 as stock prices reached all-time highs and are currently so overvalued, they will deliver 0% returns over the next decade. This disgraceful act of pure greed by the Ivy League educated leaders of corporate America to boost their own stock based compensation is reckless and absurd.
It is proof education at our most prestigious universities has produced avaricious MBAs following financial models and each other like lemmings going over the cliff. Proof of their foolishness is self evident after perusing the chart below. These intellectual giants evidently never learned the basic rule of buying low and selling high in order to make a profitable trade.
But, but, but Wall Street shysters, CNBC, and dozens of oil company cheerleaders all told me shale oil was still profitable at $30 a barrel. WTF??? Why would the biggest Bakken fracker stop fracking? Was someone telling fibs? Those Wall Street and MSM jokesters!!!
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2016 21:48 -0500
Yesterday, during his speech at CERAWeek in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi made it explicitly clear that Saudi Arabia would not cut production, instead saying that it is high-cost producers that would need to either “lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” adding that there is “no need for cuts as marginal barrel will get out of the market.” He was right.
Today his wish is slowly coming true after news that North Dakota’s largest producer, Whiting Petroleum, would suspend all fracking, and that Continental Resources has effectively done the same after reporting that it no longer has any fracking crews working in the Bakken shale.
As Reuters reports, Whiting said it would “suspend all fracking and spend 80 percent less this year, the biggest cutback to date by a major U.S. shale company reacting to the plunge in crude prices.”
It was also confirmation that the Saudi plan to put high-cost producers on ice is working, if only temporarily.
After sliding 5.6% to $3.72, Whiting stock jumped 8% to over $4 per share in after-hours trading as investors cheered the decision to preserve capital, even if it means generating far less revenue.
Whiting’s cut is one of the largest so far this year in an energy industry crippled by oil prices at 10-year lows. The cuts will have a big impact in North Dakota, where Whiting is the largest producer.The Denver-based company said it would stop fracking and completing wells as of April 1. Most of its $500 million budget will be spent to mothball drilling and fracking operations in the first half of the year. After June, Whiting said it plans to spend only $160 million, mostly on maintenance.
Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
Here’s a bothersome trend that seems quite fitting for the smoke and mirrors driven, celebrity obsessed, hologram society that America has become. A company known as Crowds on Demand is actually in the business of providing fake protesters for causes, fake entourages for wanna be celebrities and seemingly even fake supporters for unpopular corporate activities.
This just furthers my feeling that action is far more important than traditional protests in the 21st Century. They key to getting out of the mess we are in is to actively create a parallel economy and even monetary system adjacent to the current terminal one. That way, when this one blows up, we already have the infrastructure in place to move to another paradigm. One characterized by peaceful, voluntary human interaction and dominated by decentralization in virtually all aspects of human existence.
– From the 2013 post: Protesters for Hire: For a Few Thousand Dollars We’ll Buy You a Small Entourage
I first highlighted the company Crowds on Demand over two years ago in the above post. Turns out it’s much worse than I could have imagined.
From NBC News:
I find it fascinating the mainstream corporate media and Wall Street shysters spend SO MUCH time talking down gold and spending an inordinate amount of electronic ink trying to convince the masses that only nutjobs would buy it. I believe less than 2% of people have gold in their investment portfolio, so why the endless articles bashing it?
Newsletter hawkers like Martin Armstrong take every opportunity to shit on gold as an investment. I wonder if he was shitting on it from 2001 through 2011? We don’t know, because he was in prison for investment fraud during most of that time. Fatass Barry Ritholtz is in the same boat. He’s nothing but a failed lawyer pretending to be an investment guru. He’s gleeful when gold falls. It’s because he completely missed a 10 year bull market.
The suppression of gold prices through the paper market since 2011 by the Fed and their Wall Street bank co-conspirators has thus far been successful, but it is fraying at the edges as China continues to accumulate physical gold and pushing the ponzi scheme towards its inevitable conclusion. Soaring gold prices tells the masses central bankers are a fraud, that’s why they are desperate to keep the price capped.
With zero and negative interest rates throughout the world, gold should be skyrocketing. It is showing signs of calling the central banker bluff. Jesse’s comments below should be heeded. The stock market dead cat bounce and the holiday manipulation of gold down $30 will fail. If there is a lesson from the Big Short, do the opposite of what Goldman says to do.
Chart of the Day
Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie came out this morning with a ‘sell gold’ recommendation for Ma and Pa Muppet.
I was fortunate enough to hear his explanation for this in his own words on Bloomberg TV, which had touted his gold call about every fifteen minutes all day.
The net summary of Mr. Currie’s forecast is that Goldman’s economists think that there ought to be no fear in the financial paper markets, since there is an historically low chance of a recession, less than fifteen percent, and he sees no real possibility of negative interest rates.